Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-11-26 10:05 | Report Abuse

It does. Study what happened in 2013-2014.

===
singh1 The observation was made with reference to data from google as follows. I wonder too if the data takes into account all changes that have occurred during the said period.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=rcecap+share+price&rlz=1C1CHWA_enCA...-8
25/11/2018 22:57

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-11-27 10:46 | Report Abuse

Hi Singh1, I may be wrong on this, but I think your conclusion on price alone as a factor of investing in stocks is pretty flawed. Example, the house I bought in puchong was pretty low for a good 10 years before suddenly the price jump to catch the value of the location in recent years. So price and value is unconnected from my opinion,

In 2009( best year in Malaysia), rce did around 200m revenue, the net assets per share is 40 cents, earnings is 9 cents.
In 2018( after the worst set of years in Malaysia), rce did around 245m revenue, net assets per share is 151 cents, earnings is 26 cents.

If you assume that IMDb d didn't exist, and market factors from our spending (usd3.0 to usd4.5 exc) has no effect on business, then yes fd would have been a much better investment. But imagine if you had bought 10k every quarter from 2009-2018( knowing that you had a solid business and just keep on buying consistently), the dollar cost averaging itself u would realize that your average buying cost + dividend would be around rm1.20.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-11-27 10:52 | Report Abuse

So my question is, do you think our country which had 7 years of bad economy will be balanced out by 7 years of good economy in the future? ( Past results doesn't guaranteed future performance)

And if you think Malaysia will catch a break sooner or later, do you think a company that averages 36% net profit during the bad times will outperform during the good times?

Basically it's like buying that semi-d in puchong for 300k, you don't know what the value will be like, but the location will almost guarantee value sooner or later.

Hope this gives you more clarity. Until then, buy and hold!

Posted by leong87654321 > 2018-11-27 22:04 | Report Abuse

Forecast TP is rm 1.95. Do not know when? Wait .........wait

Posted by darkangell > 2018-11-27 22:57 | Report Abuse

slow2 wait

Posted by Vivian Hee > 2018-11-30 10:45 | Report Abuse

Drop to 1.45

Posted by gladiator > 2018-11-30 11:44 | Report Abuse

Why today drop?

Posted by johnbrooks > 2019-01-04 16:34 | Report Abuse

Choivo, read ur research. Like the company because of the valuation. Looks super cheap. But got some questions. Hope u can answer. Sorry gonna be a bit long.

1) Why would anyone want to borrow money at 15-20%? Bank rakyat and mbsb is charging less than half of that. Does it mean that does that borrow from rce are those that got rejected by other instituition. Does this mean the clients are more risky? Or does it mean that rce is less stringent in giving out loan?

2) If other institutions growth for civil servant loan is slowing down, why do u think rce growth can accelerate? Should it not be at least growing (if not slowing) at the same rate as other instituition? I mean bank rakyat will still try n chase the same customer as rce right?

3) Previously mbsb also has a low NPL compared to other banks. But when the merger deal between rhb, cimb and mbsb were launch, due diligence finding show that mbsb actually is way lineant in recognising NPL. Is it the same case for RCE? I mean if they are getting clients which are rejected by MBSB, it should also mean that the clients are riskier which means NPL should be higher as well. Is there a risk of bnm forcing them to recognise any npl more stringently in line with other banks?

4) Recently becoz of the high household debt, even public servants and glc employees find it hard to apply for loan. Some of the glc has stricten the condition to enable employee to apply for a salary deduction. If not mistaken they have reduce the maximum net salary ratio to debt payment to 60% from the previous 75%. This would affect business like rce right?

5) Another risk is that the company business is dependent on the size of the civil servant. From my understanding the new govt is planning to reduce the civil servant size. Currently i think they have already reduce and slow down new hires. Those position that are already retired are not being replace (just asked any of ur friends working w the govt). Most new hire are based on contract (not entitled to salary deduction scheme). This would potentially reduce the company business right?

6) what is your profit target for 2019?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 16:42 | Report Abuse

Dear john,

Thank you for the questions. They are fair ones, and i've asked the same questions when researching this company.

Some is already answered in the article, you may study further by reading the research reports from kenanga and maybank.

The rest, well, i'm not one to take from your the pleasure of finding out on your own.

Its not in my interest to fry up the price, if my research is right, it should increase on its own volition.

I've enclosed them here, and an article i wrote december 2017 on the valuation of financial institutions.

http://www.rce.com.my/docs/news/Maybank%20Research%20Report%20-%20RCE%20Capital%20Berhad%2020.09.2016.pdf

http://www.rce.com.my/docs/news/Kenanga%20Report.pdf

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/the-valuation-of-financial-institutions-and-why-coldeye-is-wrong-on-mbsb/

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-01-04 16:47 | Report Abuse

rce macam yes. But i don't like their balance sheet. Any loan default then gg. Yes ROE is high, it's because of debt-leveraged business model, something like airasia.

Div also cantik. Make your call.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 16:47 | Report Abuse

Alex.

You are correct. Please continue thinking that way.

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-01-04 16:48 | Report Abuse

ur aeoncr more gooding. Too bad i sold for technical reason. Amdui now

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 20:01 | Report Abuse

Yes, Aeoncr is a better business i think. But given the price, i prefer rce. Still, i have some aeoncr in my port.

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-01-13 16:13 | Report Abuse

this looks really good some sell to me!

Posted by bctan2005 > 2019-01-14 11:31 | Report Abuse

what happens today?

Posted by gladiator > 2019-01-14 15:31 | Report Abuse

today up

Posted by cheoky > 2019-01-15 11:17 | Report Abuse

good uptrend.

Posted by Administrator > 2019-01-15 15:05 | Report Abuse

Good

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-01-18 11:25 | Report Abuse

Those pukimak small fish day sell night sell sell everyday.

Posted by Walao Walao Eh > 2019-01-18 11:56 | Report Abuse

Hahahhhah, damn down price for collec

Posted by GLNT > 2019-01-18 12:02 | Report Abuse

The usual pump dump counter, buy 1.4++, sell 1.6++, then repeat forever. Done.

Posted by Walao Walao Eh > 2019-01-18 12:10 | Report Abuse

Noted, pump dump counter

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-01-18 12:34 | Report Abuse

new high volume in 52weeks. n it's a dump. only insiders and operators who would know what's happening. the strong form of EMH.

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-01-18 12:39 | Report Abuse

a good stock with terribly manipulated kind of share price movement. I'm out

Posted by DaitoRyu > 2019-01-18 12:55 | Report Abuse

Agreed LaoTze, however I'm going to hang on a for a while longer, it's also difficult to see where any growth is going to come from eventually, under their current strategy.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 12:58 | Report Abuse

this is Azman Hashim toy....

not for u guys to invest.


this thing live or die, u think he cares meh?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 13:01 | Report Abuse

this thing is used to finance a lot of his friends business that Arab Malaysia cannot do....and a lot of his pet projects that Arab Malaysia cannot do and will not do.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 13:07 | Report Abuse

u want to be involved in consumer financing, there are much better vehicles out there.....million times better.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-18 13:19 | Report Abuse

Despite my position being large and thus unable to top up significant amounts, i generally find moments when prices drop for RCECAP to be quite useful. Because it its during these moments, that everyone let loose with all their pent up critique. Whether real or imaginary, logical or spurious.

And every time i read the critiques, i can't help but feel inclined to buy a bit more.

I kind of wish i saw this drop coming and made money on the difference, i did in fact have a feeling, but i've all but removed most action triggers related to technical or sentiment from within my system.

Well, whatever you're going to do, good luck. I know what i'll be doing.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-18 13:21 | Report Abuse

I would suggest the people here to go and read the aeoncr forums from 2013 to 2018, and look at the price movements.

The similarity is uncanny. Haha.

Having said that, i do think AEONCR is a better business. Just much more expensive.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-18 13:52 | Report Abuse

http://www.bnm.gov.my/files/publication/fsreview/en/2018/1h/ba_01.pdf

This is a fun read.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-01-18 14:06 | Report Abuse

I don't see it as fun read at all. Hmmm...with your sceptical mindset, it should be the article is trying to feed u all that u want to hear, while he is at the other side selling u all his rce shares. Unethical, should we report to SC?

Posted by Invest_888 > 2019-01-18 16:17 | Report Abuse

I just bought at RM1.50. I believe this counter will be stable around RM1.6 to RM1.7. Moreover, got dividend around 4% per year. As long as Sino:US trade over no negative news. FBMKLCI Market will go up around 1700.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-18 17:42 | Report Abuse

Go on Connie.

I'll wait eagerly for the request for appearance by SC. Hahaha. Please.

Buy, Sell or Hold. Do whatever you like, i have no preference. Price go down, i buy, price go up, i sell. Price stay the same i hold.

Posted by Yi Heng > 2019-01-19 21:55 | Report Abuse

1.50 call me

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-01-25 10:40 | Report Abuse

Rce is getting exposure in Singapore now.

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-01-25 10:42 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/483594 认购新企1.2亿私债 RCE资本进军金融科技

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-01-26 00:11 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/SinChewDaily/?__tn__=%2CdkCH-R-R&eid=ARAo-4uIpM2mrZ4-GomgsnhEasERe6e7RrYARAN7ADG05rxEgJF5DYqtBWWhcnclg1U7e03d6hsWJbyG&hc_ref=ARS5kIf-kRBCa9Ph_lTSSri5Dpnyo5SKnrh_nN3Abc_RfJM1AoTEneerLEHcu8CNfoo&fref=nf&hc_location=group lay off 16k government workers. but the matter of fact is, they once said to do the same, while the government workers actually increased from million to 1.million.

Posted by sonic008 > 2019-01-26 00:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-01-26 00:11 | Report Abuse

from 1 million to 1.7 million*

Posted by zhangliang > 2019-01-26 11:33 | Report Abuse

can enter with steady DY, consistent profit growth, no fear!!

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-01-27 22:02 | Report Abuse

this is literally free money from poor people (B40)

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-02-03 18:40 | Report Abuse

covered full page in business weekly

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-04 10:34 | Report Abuse

can send the article?

Posted by LouiseS > 2019-02-16 16:41 | Report Abuse

Last 5 years EPS on increasing trend, increased by 89.5% over last 5 years, PE ratio at 6.2, ROE 16%, and dividend yield 4.97%.

https://louisesinvesting.blogspot.com/2019/02/preliminary-screening-of-counters-with.html

Posted by GLNT > 2019-02-19 10:40 | Report Abuse

Algo trades operating at RCE Capital to suppress share price. Gonna shoot up soon? Too cheap to ignore.

Posted by GLNT > 2019-02-21 16:46 | Report Abuse

Time to rev the engine. Super laggard amongst other stocks.

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2019-02-22 16:52 | Report Abuse

first day of breakout. but the movement is completely being tightly controlled.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-02-22 18:28 | Report Abuse

Rather late announcement of QR this year

Posted by Outliar > 2019-02-26 18:17 | Report Abuse

Slowly and steady wins the race