history repeated again , is nothing special and weird, just people are always forgotten. Recent world market slump on year 97, 2007,2009 had same scenario. All Start from hot Money, in year 97 world market slump start from Thailand and sweep all over south East Asia . In Year 2007, mortgage Crisis cause world market slump again. In Year 2011, Euro Crisis Market slump repeat again. Above there had same point, HOT MONEY. year 97, klse from 1400 something drop to 350 something, 2007 dow jone from 12000 drop to almost 6000, 2011 greek index drop from 2850 to 300, 90% asset gone. From this cases at least all the winner from big investment bank such as morgan stanley, citibank, hedge fund(george solos), PIMCO, are using real money to bet and win our country and other world market money. This few years with FED USA government help by printing money to boost world economic market, i cant imagine the impact if the USA FED wanna to increase rate which will cause hot money dissapear from developing country . Recent analysis also showed the country such as indonesia, thailand, malaysia , vietnam are high risk due to our foreign debt are near 50 to 60%..This is very simple theory, somebody lend u RM100, then u go to invest and earn RM10. You are very happy and borrow another RM100, and u make double profit. soon and later , you are same with other increase your modal become 5 time to 10 times to hope extra Return. but end of days you find out profit is not high as previous since more people are playing this game as well, suddenly your debtor wanna pull out their modal and before you make the profit you need to sell cheap price since you need to pay your debt. You will Find out you lose every thing to your borrower include your starting modal. Most Of Richer man know earn what they want , sell to realise profit and wait another Chance. Good Luck , Everybody.......................
why wait for winter & everyone is hoping that it goes up sooner than later............. can't wait for it to reach 4.15 again so that I can sell & get off this counter....... i know its still a long way to go. hopefully the climb up is as fast as how most stocks had faller & also by a BIG BIG margin.
Go Go Go UMWOG.. tell all the people out there you true colours.. I have full confident on you to go back above RM4.. aunties and uncles u wait and see.. u all being played out by the fools people..
wait until 2nd week Nov starts...... perhaps KLCI index would have dropped by 10% (approx 1710) by then, which would be a healthy correction, before prices start reversing...... am just following what experts have said about healthy market corrections.
Short term is hard to get back above 3.40, in fact i believe it will be dropping to nearly 3.00. Cut loss and Keep cash, bursa market is still jumping down for the coming few months
Anything can happen in share market, if the price can drop fr 4.00 to 3.20, why can't it drop from 3.28 to below 3.00? As our bursa is still dominated by global market.
if no strong support @ 3.00..... expect it to head down south towards 2.60 - 2.70. mega cheap sale then. already 1.50 down from high of 4.63...... very sueh liao this counter.
As of Nov 3, foreign funds have been selling. Oil price rout will continue into early half of 2015 & this should have an effect on any O&G related counters including service providers. I'd bailed out @ 3.21 making a loss, but better than seeing the price falling below 3.00 or even lower as no end is in sight as can be seen since Jul when prices started dropping for most counters. Best to do short term trades at the moment for counters that are into positive green territory...... at least, one can try & recover the losses. Once market or certain counters turns around, then it may be worthwhile to get in again, but still need to tread with caution due to world market sentiments.
based on the observation, once after a sharp selling, when volume contracted so much means current equilibrium is reached.Any surge of selling or buying will determine the near-future direction. My "ball" told me, chance to go up is bigger than go down now, so i buy few lot to keep.
THHEAVY, UMWOG, DAYANG, SKPETRO? Which one to BUY?
^-^, Alex, you should buy us a drink after this.
SKPETRO DAYANG UMWOG THHEAVY PE 16.4 15.5 26.7 56 Forward PE 9.8 12.9 29.2 0 P/BV 1.74 3.28 2.46 1.21 Dividend 0.75% 2.5% 0 0 Current Ratio 1.15 1.44 3.26 1.36 Quick Ratio 1.15 1.43 3.1 1.33 D/E Ratio 1.61 0.48 0.37 1.2 Market Cap 18.5b 2.5b 6.96b 0.5b
Do not rely so much on historical P/E as it is just a guidance. Put more emphasis on Forward P/E as it should reflect the current full year result. Among the four stocks, SKPetro fair the best. P/BV for SKPETRO also selling at the cheapest. Current Ratio and Quick Ratio should not be a big issue for SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG. The one that likely has a problem is THHEAVY. Out of 5 calender years, 2 in RED. with the Forward PE is Negative! (expecting a bad 2014 full year result).
When evaluating this 4 stocks at one go, you should take THHeavy out to have a more meaningful study. SKPETRO, DAYANG and UMWOG are belong to the big cap boys (command higher Forward PE. Average should be 15+- while THHeavy is a mid cap boy, looking at 10 to 13 forward PE. Keep in mind, the chairman's statement / CEO or MD's speech plays a very important role on determining the future flow of the company:
Be alert on the wordings like:
We see tough times ahead. We are expecting a challenging time Performance is not up to the expectation etc etc.
They are telling you what will happen to the company for the current calender year. Able to deliver or likely not to deliver.
At the point of writing, OIL PRICE IS STILL DROPPING. If you insist to put THHeavy as one of your consideration, let's see more details that I am sharing with you: (The info is extracted from their filing with Bursa)
THHeavy
Supporting share price : NIL Tabung Haji owns 30.06%
THHeavy drops so much, Lembaga Tabung Haji owns 30% have not come out to support their shares By looking at the company's value, do you want to start the ball rolling?
UMWOG is tightly gripped by UMW with 55%. The trading pattern is a bit difficult to read. Plus the stock is pricey with forward PE 29. I will give it a pass.
Dayang is acceptable but more expensive than SKPetro. Difficult to gauge what KWAP is doing. If you like the stock, buy at dip.
SKPETRO: This one worth a good drink from you. Do you see EPF patterns? EPF and ASB has been a net buyer for the past 2 weeks. When the price dipped at 7/11/2014, that is where EPF go all out to collect a whoppy 4.5m shares closed at 3.08. In Bolehland, this INVISIBLE HAND does comes in handy.
On 11/11, Humble Pie made his first buy @ 3.08. True enough 10/11 and 11/11 EPF has been nett buyer again supporting the price to close at 3.09. Regardless of EPF purely want to support the price (not to break below 3) or seeing the value in SKPETRO, EPF has been working hard on SKPETRO shares price.
Can you read EPF pattern much easier than the other 3 stocks? Now you know why I go in @ 3.08, 2 days after it touched 3.08 lowest?
BTW, both of us do not have Crystal Ball, but do you want to guess on 12/11, 13/11 and 14/11 why the price of OIL DIPS FROM 80++ to 70++ but SKPETRO CLOSED GREEN? We may wait for a few days for the filing with Bursa to gauge your guessing. But my sixth sense telling me, my answer is the same with you.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
share2014
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Posted by share2014 > 2014-10-13 17:33 | Report Abuse
Everyday new low want to average also scare