Who would have thought this current price is possible. UMW Oil & Gas - this name reflected strength a couple of years ago. Another classic lesson about cheap becoming cheaper.
This price looks extremely tempting, like a "Won't get this again in your lifetime!" Should be close to the capitulation point, that is the time where most people say "Enough!" and totally give up on the counter. That leaves only those who won't sell...and the start of it moving upwards to a fairer valuation. I'm not buying yet but will keep an eye on it. There's good potential for a 100% capital gain from this kind of counter.
i hope no one die2 defend their investment in this counter since rm4 and above. People who cut loss earlier might be able to revisit this counter soon enough for revenge. Wait another few months when the reality kicks in and there is no new contract for their rig.
brent is currently below 50 usd, becareful guys, more downward pressure expected. The current price in crude oil will not convince Petronas to increase upstream capex so soon. Before that happen expect more pressure on UMWOG earning especially the drilling rig business
Bought at 2.22 back in December 2014. Thank god I wasn't too impressed with their fundamentals back then and only invested a small percentage into this.
How much can local investors keep if shares keep going down. Foreign investors keep selling. I think next year EPF dividend will be hard hit. If Dow takes a big hit, our shares will tumble and worse will come.
Hi, @tonylim. Yup, been some time since I was here. Am following the market again after selling out way too early... and then missed out on some great profits. Especially in the telcos and O&G counters. But at the same time, I wasn't around when the O&G counters started their steep decline. Who would have thought UMWOG, for instance, would ever be at this price!
When I see prices like this, my fingers start to itch, wanting to just click the Buy icon:-) Have to force myself to refrain and stick to the strategy. (1) Never try to guess the bottom (2) Only buy into strength, even if that means at a higher price. But it's very difficult to just see UMWOG at 1.29 and not buy...
A counter may be good but won't be immune when there are negative changes to its industry's environment. The sharp decline of crude oil prices certainly affects all segments of the O&G industry. The technical charts clearly show UMWOG has been on a downtrend since months ago. It will eventually find a bottom. It's tempting to think that's "now", especially when we see the difference between its previous `normal' range and what it is at the moment. But it's prudent to refrain from buying for the moment. Better to wait until it's above the 20-day Moving Average.
Mat, I like your thinking. I'm also holding cash and waiting to average down but will only buy into strength. The environment is forecasted to get worse in the short term with 1MDB, MYR-USD and Brent all playing a role. PE ratio is still at 12.2, it can still go lower.
anybody want to purchase this stock now ? I've been holding for exactly one year and have paper ls of 65%. I cant keep thinking to holding it for next 2 yrs as the news anticipate the current oil scenario will maintain. tough lesson learn
don't accuse them like that guys. It has been reported that 100 rig will be delivered next year but only 8 has secured contract according to Hercules CEO. Hercules , a drilling contractor with a size similar to umw og is filling for bankruptcy protection
Every day my fingers itch to Buy UMWOG. Okay, I'll admit it - the brand name is a very strong attraction, and I'm as biased and prejudiced as the next guy. But must use reason and consider the opinions here. @tonylim said the oil rig business is in the dumps right now due to depressed crude prices. So, better to stay at the sidelines for now and wait for the tide to change. Buying into strength is way better than trying to guess the bottom...and then having the capital stuck.
nice2, hercules got like 16 jackup rig, UMW OG got like 7 jack up right now with 1 semi sub and a few workover unit. ok laa, hercules a bit bigger. The fact remains that even hercules can be filing for bankruptcy while operating jack up rigs, one would expect the current low price will favour drilling on shallow water using jack up rig, instead of deeper water using semi sub or a drill ship
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
blackul66
1,334 posts
Posted by blackul66 > 2015-07-28 09:31 | Report Abuse
brent 53 usd/bbl and wti 47 usd/bbl, go figure the direction.....