Don't get caught with this downward trend. Many experienced people can tell you how low the shares can go during bad times. Keep cash is best for now. Good FD dividends in most banks.
Generally a very satisfying day for many of us long-suffering oil n gas punters. Let's see whether crude oil's rebound is defended during US trading. As long as it stays above $30, that should be tolerable enough. Still very low but not sliding lower can already be regarded as positive development.
Still way too early to tell but if oil n gas counters have seen the bottom, then it's time to nibble. Rotate from export-oriented counters. Ringgit has recovered some ground. Foreign investors might see their markets as being shaky and may return to Bursa and other emerging markets. We will lay out the red carpet for those fellows :-)
Waiting to see whether UMWOG manages to stay at or above 1.00. This is a critical psychological point. I believe more so than the daily crude oil price changes. If it manages that, then 1.00 will become the new support.
Encouraging finish by UMWOG. If I'm not wrong, 1.02 is the resistance. Get past this and the gap to the 50-day Moving Average shortens. It's critical to remain above 1.00 and erase the perception of "penny counter".
"........."Tomorrow we are going to have a meeting with ministers of Iran and Iraq in Iran, and I hope the minister of Qatar will be going with me to discuss with them the basis of this agreement, which is very important for the stabilisation of the market," Venezuela's oil minister Eulogio Del Pino told reporters on Tuesday......"
Good sign! More meetings! Today China Stock up 3.32%
Crude oil prices - we can argue it either way. Of going down to $20 as analysts from Goldman Sachs etc say it will go to, or that the bottom has been found and it is recovering. But we will just be guessing, even though our arguments are reasonable. I feel it's better to use price action when it comes to the oil n gas counters. Act according to what the technical charts say. No guarantee of success. But at least there's a system.
A few positives: 1.02 looks to be the new support. Which also means investors don't see UMWOG as "penny counter" anymore. Psychology and perception are very important. There seems to be more interest in this counter than Armada since last week. One negative though - traders in this counter are extremely jittery. They would run at the first sign of trouble.
@jetli Interesting correlation between the share price with Brent Crude Oil there. Notice how this seems to be supported by the movements over the past few weeks. Including today. With a counter like this, I'd pay heed to price action than fundamentals. But must be clear that UMWOG is a counter for traders, not investors. It's definitely not something that you'd buy and hold.
Yes...... Trade oil stocks cos they in play now. Already huge beating so plenty of upside vs downside. If investor then hard to buy at bottom & sell at top. At these levels it's bottom rather than top so at low risk
Impairment loss.....go find out what that means & the effect on the company's fundamentals not the share price. Share price may be hit by panic sellers who only look at the absolute figures whiteout understanding its effects
Impairment is still a loss, just how they tweak account. But, when impairment sudden surge to 400 million vs gain of 12 million q to q, this is bulllsshhit.
. Why merger deal between MISC Bhd and Bumi Armada Bhd is still possible ?
CIMB Research says the merger deal between MISC Bhd and Bumi Armada Bhd offers an opportunity for MISC to grow its portfolio of stable cashflow assets, while growth in the oil and gas environment is stagnant.
if it materialises, could involve MISC, 63 per cent-owned by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), injecting its FPSO businesses into Bumi Armada via a share swap.
“This could lead to Petronas ultimately owning a substantial stake in Bumi Armada, which subsequently transforms into the national oil and gas company’s FPSO division,” it said.
The research house further noted that Bumi Armada currently has 9 FPSOs compared with MISC’s 6 FPSOs.
It said that combining the two fleets would result in Bumi Armada’s 16 FPSOs leapfrogging from the 5th to 2nd largest global FPSO operator, just below BW Offshore’s 17.
“If the pricing is right, this deal could be good for both companies,” the research house said.
CIMB said the deal would ultimately be beneficial to both parties, with Bumi Armada coming into the Petronas fold and gaining access to local contract awards, while also gaining access to MISC’s strong balance sheet for future expansion.
Meanwhile, MISC may get exposure to Bumi Armada’s current FPSO portfolio, as well as pursue overseas opportunities jointly, utilising Bumi Armada’s wide network of overseas contacts.
At the current price, Bumi Armada shares may be relatively low-risk consideration for MISC as Its share price is below its IPO price of RM1.52 and close to its all-time low.
It is also lower than its book value of RM1.28 at end-3Q15 even after substantial write-downs of its OSV carrying values.
All these vessels are not cheap to maintain. When the wti at even a 50 USD, this is still a big blow to FPSO. Question now, shale gas cheaper or deep sea offshore cheaper. Nobody seem to answer this question.
Advantages to FPSOs can be classified in two ways:
Flexibility in performance and field development.
Flexibility in performance includes all aspects from options for construction to seaworthiness. The basic performance advantages of an FPSO relate to oil storage capacity, operation in all types of environments, less sensitivity to weight increase or COG shift, ease of modularization, and redeployment to other areas when fields have declined. These and other factors are reasons why an FPSO is considered as a viable deepwater field development option.
A Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) installation is a floating facility, usually based on a (converted) oil tanker hull. It is equipped with hydrocarbon processing equipment for separation and treatment of crude oil, water and gases, arriving on board from sub-sea oil wells via flexible pipelines.
The research house further noted that Bumi Armada currently has 9 FPSOs compared with MISC’s 6 FPSOs.
It said that combining the two fleets would result in Bumi Armada’s 16 FPSOs leapfrogging from the 5th to 2nd largest global FPSO operator, just below BW Offshore’s 17.
CIMB said the deal would ultimately be beneficial to both parties, with Bumi Armada coming into the Petronas fold and gaining access to local contract awards, while also gaining access to MISC’s strong balance sheet for future expansion.
Meanwhile, MISC may get exposure to Bumi Armada’s current FPSO portfolio, as well as pursue overseas opportunities jointly, utilising Bumi Armada’s wide network of overseas contacts.
At the current price, Bumi Armada shares may be relatively low-risk consideration for MISC as Its share price is below its IPO price of RM1.52 and close to its all-time low.
It is also lower than its book value of RM1.28 at end-3Q15 even after substantial write-downs of its OSV carrying values.
It's not like investors didn't know times are hard. That's the reason this counter had gone down and down to 0.80-something at one time. "Investors" had sold because they had (rightly as it turns out) UMWOG will likely make a loss and there won't be any dividends until the environment gets better. This has mostly been priced in. The fourth quarter results have still been a shock though. The lower turnover is more worrying than the loss which is mostly impairment-related.
But with this kind of counter, I feel this factor is the most important of all - price action. It had been positive since a few weeks ago until it was jarred by the results. Will have to see how it goes during the day. If it closes above the lowest point, that would be encouraging. Even more encouraging would be above 1.00. This is very important due to the "penny counter" psychology.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kinfatt999
2,913 posts
Posted by kinfatt999 > 2016-01-18 12:40 | Report Abuse
if the oil price can down so low, it also can up very high,