Bplant can't be cheaper than Thplant. Thplant already reached 77 sen this noon . Both Bplant and Thplant still has a lot more to catch up to fair value. Enjoy the ride .
last few days, when i said i will use my dividend of 47k to reinvest in Bplant to make my portfolio to 2.2M, Tyranny posted that he will also use his dividend of 47.1 K from Bplant to add up. i do not actually know how true he receive this amount of dividend or he own 2.2M of Bplant . i congratulated him to be able to be on par with me, i assume he is very young or from a rich family.
The price of Bplant has shot up so much these days, i have profited another 200k from Bplant..But i am not selling now.
May be he sense my doubt on his trustworthy, and also my trustworthy, he started to attack me., Few of you also have the curiosity about why Yippy put up so much money in one counter.
Good to let you know who i am. I am 74 of age and i retired as a senior officer in one of the forces in Malaysian government. i invested more than 30 years in Bursa, i made a total of not less than 7 millions both capital gain and dividend. At the moment, i am still one of the largest 30 in four counters and earn dividend more than 500k a year, I enjoyed a very luxury and comfortable retired life.. i do not want to argue with anyone here to create a lot of enemies. As i been very frank and straight forward, if i have offended any one here, my sincere apologies. Trade happily and be safe during this pandemic times. BUY MORE OF BPLANT .
The four are Uoadev, zhulian,sentral reit and Uoareit.. i also have MAYBANK AND,TENAGA ...i bought big amount in BPLANT AND MBSB for their huge potential. Bplant for it landbank and MBSB for it statue soon to be listed as 2nd islamic bank in Malaysia, all bought almost at near.lowest...Been very elderly, i have the patience to wait for lowest for grasping large amount.at one go.. just my experience , before you select a counter, you should read all annual report and know them thoroughly. Thank you and have a good trading day.
I follow Bplant's Top Management/Directors' corporate initiatives reporting since last year and the performance of Bplant matches what they have said and this is a good sign of more good things coming.
I am not bothered by any "take private" exercise of Bplant because I am excited by the performance of Bplant for several years down the road.
Firstly, CPO price is reported daily by MPOB and secondly monthly FFB harvest is reported by Bplant in Bursa and thirdly the quarterly financial accounts are reported every quarter.
I do all these tabulations in my Excel Sheet and know the real situation and so, I am still investing in Bplant for Long Term (LT) basis.
When CPO price was 2800, bplant was 75 sens... now CPO is 4.5k ++.. come on market!! some logic sense please?!! We live in Malaysia tropical best weather! Can do very easy planting!! BUY!! dont wait!! Everyone know Bplant NTA is mother high.. not a secret! its cheap now.. why so much reservation?!
PS: Bplant also has 60% dividend policy!! high CPO price = high profit = high dividend yield!!!!
This is extracted from page 172 2020 Bplant annual report. 'Under the dividend policy, it is the intention of the Board to adopt a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% of the Company’s audited profit after taxation and zakat attributable to shareholders for each financial year, after excluding the profit retained by associated companies, any unrealised income that are non-cash in nature and exceptional gains of non-operating nature where cash flow arising therefrom may be reinvested.'
I am pleased to share the projected full year (2021) EPS and the prospective PE of some of my favorite plantation counters. The Projected EPS is based on actual 1H + Q3+Q4. Q3 EPS can be estimated fairly accurately as Q3 avg CPO prices is known and production numbers are mostly available . I also make the assumption that Q4 EPS is same level as Q3 for reasons that ASP Q4 seem to be even higher and labourers for plantantion sector are coming in to maximize crop recovery. Given that Nov/Dec is usually seasonally lower crops, but the higher ASP and labour availability should be enough to offset that, On above basis , the FY 2021 EPS and prospective PE based on yesterday closing share price as as follows:
Bplant. EPS 9.6sen , PE 7.1x THplant. EPS 16.5sen , PE 4.4x SOP. EPS 73.0sen. PE 5.3x MHC. EPS 20.9sen. PE 4.5x Cepat. EPS 13,9sen. PE 5.2x Swkplt. EPS 48sen. PE 5.2x Taaan. EPS 67.9sen PE 4.6x Hsplant. EPS 23.6sen. PE 9.3X.
Historical PE for plantation counter is 15 to 25x As such, plantation counters are seriously underappreciated by the market , especially amid poor KLSE sentiment.
Can 2021's earning be sustained in 2022? You will be surprised! Hope this perspective helpful for your investment decision.
It's just a game of taxes. Since it is quite hard for the government to impose windfall tax on glove stocks now as their ASP is dropping fast, will it be plantation companies?
Gambling related companies may also get tax increase as LGE did in the past budget.
They are depending on spending, that is why they wanna open all economy sectors. Simple economy principal which I studied during my collage time. As government, to increase income, u don’t need to increase tax rate or introduce new taxes, you just need to make sure the economy running, people more income, buy more, companies make more profit, pay more dividend/salary, investors/employees spend more…. The cycle continues indefinitely…. Multiplier effect…
Syabas to Bplant's Management for so promptly reported in Bursa its Sept'21 FFB harvest, today on 08-10-21, again reflecting a corporate citizen's respectable responsibility for prompt reporting.
Average CPO Price for Jul'21 to Sep'21 is RM4,416.00 per ton).
I am only doing a very simple layman's net net net profit calculation of RM250.00 per ton for FFB, therefore, for Jul'21 to Sep'21 (3rd quarter), the estimated profit after tax is 263,317 x RM250.00 = RM65.83M. As said, this is a simple calculation only. It could be more as Av. CPO Price is RM4,416.00 per ton.
Quarter 1/21 (Jan'21 - Mar'21), Net Profit after Tax is RM12.225M. Quarter 2/21 (Apr'21 - Jun'21), Net Profit is after Tax is RM48.375M. Quarter 3/21 (Jul'21 - Sept'21), Net Profit after Tax is RM65.83M. (As said, it is my calculation).
Quarter 4/21, entering into Oct'21, the daily CPO price is always above RM4,500.00 to RM4,800.00 and so on.
Therefore, please have a re-examination of the above simple calculation of Bplant's power of earnings through its massive oil palm estates and coupled with strong CPO prices.
The gradual moving up of Bplant's share price illustrates the above trend & facts.
@CCWong,. I think your net net profit of $250 pmt FFB is calculated based on Q2 actual + FFB price differential between Q2 and Q3 as I show below; Q2 NPAT $48,5 mi/ 231,703 mt = $209 pmt ffb + CPO Price differential $4413 - 4207 ) x 20 % OER =$41 pmt ffb, Total $209 + 41 = $250.
Your assumption is the cost of production pmt ffb basis is flat ie same irrespective of the amount of crop harvested. This is not the case for agriculture .
About 90% of the cost of production in the plantantion , which include fertilizer, field upkeep, depreciation ( which is substantial) , interest, administration expenses etc are quite fixed irrespective if bplant produced 231,703 Mt in Q2 or 263,317 Mt in Q 3. The additional of 31,614 Mt produced in Q3 is due to crop seasonal factor , Bplant don't spend proportionate more to increase production. The variable cost incur in the additional production is small which only include the pieceal rate for harvesting and transportation and these will not exceed $100 pmt ffb. As such the net profit from the additional tonnage (31,614 Mt) based on avg ffb price of $883 pmt is estimated to be $883-$100 =$783 pmt ffb before tax or $587 pmt after tax as opposed to $250 in your calculation. Therefore your estimate should be $65.83. + incrementsl profit from the higrer production as I discussed above . My estimate is about $77 mil NPAT for Q3 or 3.45 sen per share . Correct me if I have missed anything.
Q1 3,894 180,164 67.85 12.225M Taking 12.225M/180,164 give 67.85/ton
Q2 4,207 231,701 208.78 48.375M Taking 48.375M/231,701 give 208.78/ton
Q3 4,416 263,317 250.00 65.83M Taking 65.83M/263,317 give 250.00/ton.
Notes:
1. You see the gradual increase in the CPO Av. 3 Month Price (3,894 to 4,207 to 4,416).
2. You see the actual NPAT for Q1 & Q2 (12.225M to 48.375M).
3. So, I derive at FFB/Ton for Q1 & Q2 (67.85 to 208.78).
4. I use very simple calculation backwards for Q1 & Q2 basing on Bplant's actual data reported.
5. So, I arrive at Q3' estimate of FFB/ton of 250.00 (67.85 to 208.78 to 250.00).
6. Also, it is net of many costs (All-in costs) including tax, etc (without other surprises).
7. Also, I realize this time round, Bplant is much more efficient as can see from the FFB/ton.
8. The Q3's NPAT to be reported later may be lower which we don't know, but still higher than Q2.
9. But, what we know is the FCPO price is still going up/stable & Bplant's FFB harvests stabilize.
10. Last but not least, Bplant's future earnings are bright as sale of lands with interest saving of about RM15.0M/year & land rental amount of about RM15.00/year = RM30.0M/year will factor in when FCPO drops gradually in time to come. These are all good corp. plans.
I have no regrets in investing in Bplant for Long Term and Bplant's proposed good dividend policy is my retirement plan for good.
I have shared this in Thplant forum.. I guess it may be helpful for some of you here ;
Climate change and ESG Agenda is a double edged sword. Because of these Agenda , there has been zero new investment in palm oil sector in Malaysia for many years. Similarly for Indonesia, they Implemented a 3 year moratorium on new planting from 2019-2021. Global output for oil crops have been adversely affect by climate havoc . Climate issue such as flood, drought, temperature rise etc are not abating . How can oil crop production increase substantially in next few years ? Covid pandemic adds the pain. Shortages of energy ( the green LNG ) is worsening in China, India, England and Europe and the mandates to substitute fossil fuels with renewable biofuel further throw the supply and demand equation off balance . A 10% shortage is enough to caused 100% price spike for the commodity which largely explain the unbelievable spike in CPO price. Additional supply will not come soon . These robust. CPO cycle will go on for next 3 years , not forgetting there will be price corrections along the way. Even an average price of $3,500 is good enough to make plantantion companies laughing to the banks, let alone price has surpassed $5,100. Enjoy the ride. 09/10/2021 7:37 AM
Hi CCWong,. Just to raise the interesting view point put forth by you . Q2/Q1 production increased 51,153 mt or 28.4%,. NPAT per mt FFB increased $140.93 pmt or 208% Q3/Q2 production increased 32,000 Mt or 13.8% , NPAT per mt FFB increased $41.22 pmt or 19.7% based on your estimate. That seem to be very conservative . Anyway , let's enjoy the good return to come . Just for exchanging view to make ourselves better in our analysis. I have no other intention. Cheers !
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
shiby
217 posts
Posted by shiby > 2021-10-07 12:35 | Report Abuse
yes up 12cent already.enjoy the ride everyone.
Sep 28, 2021 4:02 PM | Report Abuse
I sold after ex.now slowly buying .no regret coz got discount buying back and some profit + dividend soon