KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 18): The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects demand for all types of oils and fats to resume, especially for palm oil, which is seen as the most competitively priced vegetable oil in the market.
3rd Q outputs and average selling prices higher than 2nd Q. Can expect higher profits and dividend. Another catalyst is the sale of Kulai estate with huge cash flows.
Investment in palmoil listed companies got many tier offensive & defensive stategy mah!
Offensive
1. benefit from high oil price reap huge profit improvement, strong cash flow generation and strong and healthy balance sheet
2. Strong dividend will be forthcoming.
3. The govt of indonesia & msia have restricted new palmoil plantation development thus limited future plantation supply in the future which is good as it will lend support to its price loh!
Defensive
1. Land has a finite supply which is a good hedge against inflation
2. Currently plantation trade at a deep undervalue thus give big margin of safety for investor loh!
3. The current of hype of ESG trend which is unsustainable....give a good sound contrarian opportunity for a very strong rebound & upside for plantation going fwd loh!
Kon Lim Chai 3rd Q outputs and average selling prices higher than 2nd Q. Can expect higher profits and dividend. Another catalyst is the sale of Kulai estate with huge cash flows.<< no. q3 won't have that cash flow. they signed agreement on 28 September 2021. It also depends on the completion of agreement from both parties. Fastest also Q4 of FY2021 will get the money.
Asia88, it depends, currently abt 25kha area are not planted. And the tree age profile are not that optimal. Perhaps by selling the valuable land n reinvest in planting high yield trees and optimise it’s tree density, the production will be better even with lesser land. Nevertheless, bplant is not operating at its fullest potential, which means things can only be better going forward… https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/where-next-ma-play-plantation-could-be
"""" Of 34 million tonnes of palm oil exports in 2020, 21% was in crude form. """ ,,,, or ~ 7 MILLION tonnes !!!!!! ....... Malaysia Stock Reserve is 1.5 million/month !!! ... Look at the implications.
https://newswav.com/A2110_qJpOCV?s=A_CGRzyOd Amid lucrative earnings , funds are pouring back to oil & gas sector . ESG issue is put at back burners temporarily. Will foreign funds and local funds (EPF and KWAP particularly) stop selling down or even snap up plantation counters amid historic earning ?
Plantation index is underperforming Y-o-Y vs rest of the CI actor. The question is what 's holding back this sector when CPO has rocket up and above $5,000 per tonne
What are the positive factors favoring the oil palm industry especially the upstream oil palm companies with huge amount of oil pal estates:
1. RM to USD is > RM4.15++ (Oil palm export proceeds in USD will bring back more RM to their kitty).
2. Good CPO price > RM4.5K/ton to RM5.0K/ton ++. (Same efforts, but selling at extremely good prices. Laughing all the way to the bank).
3. Most raw materials & costs of productions are sourced locally in RM including fertilizers as Malaysia has a strong resource-based economies as Malaysia has been in oil palm industry business for more than 50-60 years and so almost everything is local.
4. Upstream oil palm business is simple & no need for a Rocket Scientist to teach. Follow the basics, follow SOp & get them right.
5. For gold, steel, etc, closing stocks are based on purchasers from suppliers of them. (So, you realize when the gold, steels, etc are very high in prices, high profits are reported & when their closing stocks are high - Quantity x Closing Stock Price Valuation).
6. For oil palm estates, the closing stocks are on the trees & keep on harvesting from its own sources (oil palm estates), so no need to buy unless you are skewed more towards CPO extraction milling & trading. Keep producing, harvesting & get more values from the trees.
7. So, for the same efforts, for the same marginal increase in costs (fertilisers & labour), the operating profits generated as explained in above are 1.5 fold,2 folds, 2.5 folds, etc.
8. I sit comfortable with my simple business model analysis with oil palm industry & the oil palm companies I invest in for long term (LT) & know that I will reap from my patience & be rewarded.
ccwong : i a bit disagree on item no 3. I know some company take fertilizers from Netherland as it is better for their crop based on their internal R&D center.
It is about marginal increase in all-in production costs against the immensely increase in the ultimate selling prices of the produces (FFB) and/or products (CPO) respectively.
The small cap and 2nd liners plantation counters are making good progress in their share price increase, But the big cap or counters where Sovereign funds holding significant stakes are having poor showing ! The sector overall lackluster performance (share price wise ) is predominantly due to the dampening effect of the fund continuous sell down despite robust earnings in this sector.
Counters where sovereign funds are not shareholders: Bplant, THplant, MHC, cepat, etc
Counters with low shareholding from Sovereign funds: Taann HSplant Sop Swkpltn For Taann and SOP, I think the funds shall complete the disposal by oct/Nov. Good chance for these counters to perform soon.
Counters where Sovereign funds hold substantially: Simepltn. IOI Genp Klk
Counters without EPF and KWAP : THplant +14.5% Bplant. +4.9% Mhc. +3.8% Cepat. +1.3%
Big cap /counters with EPF/KWAP as shareholders: Simepltn - 1.4% IOI. - 0.74% Genp. - 1.83% Klk. +0.35% Taann. - 2.74% Swkpltn. Unchanged SOP. +. 0.77%
I believe EPF and /or KWAP are still selling down today . Only local retailers and some corporates are absorbing the selling and that’s not enough to move price to reflect the robust fundamental of CPO .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
CCWONG
290 posts
Posted by CCWONG > 2021-10-18 14:52 | Report Abuse
Bplant is coming as the last quarter financial report will be out next month and it'll be the biggest positive surprise of the day. Stay tuned.