US is shorting China market. China is defending with all the new market measures. If She succeeds, Consumption and property market in China will revives. Commodity will be very bullish. USA if fail to short China. Will be harder to maintain interest rate and USD will fall further. Commodity will further rally.
Thank-you BPLANT for taking me out. This is my largest trading gain, more than doubling my YTL trading gain (also very nice). Time to move on. Thank-you all again.
Joint offerors will likely be successful in privatising Bplant. But I hope the final outcome is LTAT 35%, KLK 51%, Public 14% and Bplant remain listed like what happens in FGV.
Enterprice value (EV) of KLK is about $100,000/planted ha. EV of Bplant based on $1.55 is about $54,000/planted ha. There is huge EV gap to bridge notwithstanding that KLK also has significant oleochemical business. KLK shall bring significant expertise and operational efficiency to Bplant to narrow the valuation gap.
For pure plantation stock like Bplant you just need data from the monthy FFB production and monthly average MPOB palm oil spot price to know what will be the quarterly profit.
Bplant gave good dividend from gain of land disposal and without it the dividend will be low if depend solely on operation profit.
So count you luck there was an MGO at RM1.55 and if without it the Bplant today price will be very much lower based on quarterly earning.
Boustead wants best price, LTAT wants highest possible price, KLK grind n grind with its team n statisticians for ideal price that can win the bid and close the MGO eventually.............
Shareholders can dream laughing harder to the bank so to speak, but KLK ain't going to pay more than it think it should......you can argue this n that, not fair value la, hidden gems la, hidden potentials la, coz not your money to take over (if you have the capability to do so)
Many retailers disposed Bplant from as low as 65 sen to 120 sen for whatever reasonings they made. Many are happy to take up $1.55 now. Some wish to hang on for realising more gains. So, Just be yourselves and be happy with the decision made by yourselves.
Dear Calvintangeng, For Tmakmur MGO was RM1.80 but at the end price was raised to RM1.90. =============================== When will KLK announce the higher end price (Shall there be any raise)?
At this juncture KLK has declared its intention to take Bplant shares at Rm1.55 (so it should move up to Rm1.55 but since people threw at Rm1.50 KLK is just too happy to scoop up)
As many have bought from 64 sen to Rm1.00 the price of Rm1.50 is just too good for them already
Those who think Bplant at Rm1.50 still cheap are still holding out for more. No right and no wrong as it is up to each to decide.
Now last year when Subur Tiasa was 73.5 sen An Unfair MGO was given out at 65 sen
THE ONLY WAY TO KNOW THE FULL VALUE OF BPLANT IS IF SC AND BURSA WILL MAKE BPLANT TO DO A 100% THOROUGH REVALUATION OF ALL ITS ASSETS AT CURRENT MARKET VALUE
I doubt any revision of price as no much price movement since announcement till now. I will wait for the offer letter but offer price is really to low compared to its real valuation. I have to wait as RM0.05 is couple of thousand RM
I have a query. If the MGO is successful and I am not able to sign the transfer of share form, does the proceed from the transfer of my holding to KLK go automatically to my registered bank account?
If they do not get 90% of the offer shares, they cant invoke section 222, and if they still proceed with delisting, u will ended up with holding unlisted shares
1. Joint offeror obtain at least 75% of enlarged. Bplant will not meet the public spread. Offeror can apply for delisting but this route require and exit offer (same offer price) and need shareholders approval I.e. Egm
2. If the offeror obtain at least 90% of enlarged. Offeror can't invoke section 222 (compulsory acquisition). But offeror can apply for delisting. Those who do not accept might ended up holding unlisted shares.
3. If offeror get 90% of offer shares. Offeror can invoke section 222, so now bplant will be wholly owned by the offeror
Wait till end of the week, once BHB shareholders approve at their EGM the deal is done. BHB not fully privatised, still lots of minorities at BHB. See condition to BPlant sale is BHB shareholderS approval via a EGM.
those who cannot now is opportunity to switch to Laggard like Thplant
In Eagle Group we got Ex- Banker Steve Wong who loaded up on Bplant Chun Chun
now he has switched Bplant to Thplant
According to his banking experience he said Thplant's land banks also very valuable and more ( Thplant got over 240,000 acres versus Bplant 220,000 acres )
And selling one Bplant now Rm1.51to Rm1.52 can buy almost 3 Thplant shares at 54 sen
Again please do your own due diligence
For now Thplant is more assets play like Bplant
Jtiasa with 206,000 acres also excellent as it is accompanied by strong earnings
I remembered someone wrote the valuation of Bplant is much more than RM1.55 by analyzing their assets. Seem that no other invited companies willing to up their offered price for Bplant. Guess it will stay within this price range.
Will minorities of BHB reject the offer? LTAT is just 1 vote vs the many minorities who are unhappy with LTAT. Any one knows if LTAT has organised the support for the deal with BHB minorities?
How to ensure you are realistic when analysing plantation companies? I do a lot of fundamental analysis and to ensure that I am not carried away by optimistic or even pessimistic thinking, I follow Daniel Kahneman’s inside and outside view, from his book “Thinking Fast and Slow” The inside view generally refers to a conclusion reached using an individual own experience and reasoning. It is the perspective of someone looking at the problem from “the inside”. The focus is on the specific situation rather than looking at a broader class of similar situations. In contrast, the outside view refers to the perspective of someone looking at the problem "from the outside". It is the view taking into consideration the actual experience of other people. When you analyze a company, the inside view may lead to unrealistic expectations. To counter this, you need an outside view. This is where base rates come in. The performance of the industry would give you a basis to check on your analysis and projections. I have updated my base rates for the Bursa plantation sector as per my blog article “How the Malaysian plantation sector performed over the past 10 years”
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,633 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2023-08-28 10:10 | Report Abuse
Albukhary is correct
Research house Analysts cannot understand Locations and Value of lands of Bplant
They are mostly in their late 20s, 30s or 40s
As such they got average salary and do not own many assets
They won't understand and therefore cannot do a proper writeup
Newspaper analysts also the same