Hahahaa ... that's a good one bro. Don't worry. The court case may take 3 years (Comparing to Grab vs MyCC case) before verdict is out. Profit 120mill per quarter x 12 qtr = 1.44bill. Still good if the verdict comes out either way.
ChekHupCoffee
Mycc must investigate Indian barber cartel. Price has increased to rm15. Pre-pandemic rm10, after rm13. Now rm15.
1.On 29th Nov 2023 LHI was trading at its peak with intraday high of 72.5sen and closed at 68sen with a red candlestick. It continued in its decline and hit the bottom of 55sen days ago when market resumed trading after New year.
2. In the short period of a month, it has declined 17,5 sen or 24.1%. Considering that LHI has 3650m issued share capital, that means 3650x 0.175 or about 638.75m has been wiped out from its market capital.
3. What happens?? Well, LHI in a filing with Bursa has informed its shareholders that it has received a letter from MYCC and its decision to maintains its finding of price-fixing infringement with imposition of financial penalty of RM157,470,027 The company says it will apply for a stay of execution and would appoint legal representation to challenge the decision in court. All the best and best of luck in their endeavor.
4. What do you think and its the sudden and massive collapse and loss of 638m in market capital upon receiving the MYCC letter. Is it justifiable? In my view market reacts negatively over bad data and economic news and more aggressively and irrationally over court case and imposition of penalty and fine.
5. In JHI case it was made worse by the disposal executed by Affinity Asia Pacific Fund. In anyway, I think the sell out is huge and overdone. The loss of 638m in market capital is excessive and not representative of the case in which the proceeding has not even commenced. 6. LHI is involved in the poultry, animal feeds and many more activities related to the chicken breeding and selling industry. In the 9 months of operation, LHI reported increasing trend in revenue and profitability. In the 1Q its revenue and profit was 2.1b and 22m. In the 2Q its revenue and profit was 2.4b and 65m. And in the 3Q its revenue and profit was 2.5b and a massive jump of 132m.
7. If the trend is anything to go by and one would expect the 4Q to be equally good and LHI would close the year 2023 with a remarkable and commendable performance.
8. In addition, the 1Q performance of 2024 that coincide with the Chiness New Year would generate huge demand for chicken and eggs during the festival session. Hence, it will be good as well. 9. Currentlt, at 56 sen LHI is trading at a 4- quarer running EPS of 8.52sen and a PE multiple of 6.5x. Considering LHI is among the largest breeder in Malaysia and in the region and considering the Bursa PE multiple is between 13.5x to 15x therefore LHI at 6.5x is unjustifiable.
10. in my opinion, the sudden collapse is unnecessary and overkill. It is not a threat instead it opens up an opportunity for you to enter big and cheap.
11. LHI is currently best fit the description of Warren Buffet. In his quote he said. It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. 12. This is my personal perception of the counter and it is not intended in anyway to influence your investment decision and strategy and much less a recommendation to buy or sell. 13.Think about it. Happy Trading
1.In addition to the dividend payment of 0.18, in May 2023, LHI has declared and announced 0.012 dividend in Nov 2023. The ex date is 11/1/24. In total LHI pays 3 sen dividend per share. At the current price of 56 sen the dividend yield is 5.3% and that is 76.6% higher than your fixed deposit of 3%
2. While i did not check to verify whether LHI has a dividend policy,but considering that the 4Q running quarters EPS is 8.52sen, therefore the pay out ratio is an impressive 35.2% 3.Hence, the board of directors remains concern and thoughtful by rewarding its minority shareholders and sharing its prosperity.
4. It is still unknown why the Funds sold the shares and reduce its percentage holding despite the fact that LHI will report a significant jump in revenue and profit for the year ending 2023. 5. For the 9 months ending Sept 2023, the revenue and profit recorded for LHI were 7.11b and 220m respectively, Whereas, the full year performance for 2022 was only 218.89m.
6..In the process of running a business, companies do face problem. This is inevitable but the management is always there to resolve the matters, to react and respond to the even changing business environment.
7. As you are aware and it was announced yesterday, the company has initiated follow up action and apply to the court for a stay of execution for the infringement,and penalty
8. The MYCC penalty is just a storm in the tea cup as compare to the catastrophic even of pandemic, lock down, idle planes and total lost of business and revenue that has plunged Asia Asia into PN17
9. It is hope that this would inspire your confidence in LHI
10. This write up is not a recommendation to buy or sell but posted as a form of sharing and learning and a joyful past times
11. Happy trading and see how it goes today. 10/1/2
1.Tomorrow is the dividend ed-date and shareholders will be rewarded with 0.012 dividend per share. The payment date is 29th Jan. The share price closed for the day at 56sen so it will be adjusted downwards by 1.5sen. Hence the reference price would be 54.5sen
2, The market price will again be determined by the natural forces of demand and supply for the shares. If investors are bullish and buying persist on then the counter could close higher. Conversely,if the bears continue to charge, than the counter will close lower.
3. LHI has been experiencing a mini down trend since late Nov 2023. The 9 day MA line has crossed over the 26 day MA line from above to below on 6th Dec 2023. The gap between the two lines had also widen over many days of trading. However, over the last 3 days LHI has made somewhat improvement. The gap between the two average lines has been narrowing and the closing shares price today at 56 sen has raised above the 9 day moving averages line. This is an early sign of strength and better day are forthcoming.
4. On 29th Nov 2023, the MACD line had crossed over from above to below the signal line. The counter experienced massive selling pressure with declining share price and expending solid red histogram until 8th Dec.
5.Over the weeks, the counter has made tremendous improvement and the gap between the MACD and signal line has been narrowing. At the closing price of 56sen today, the two lines have intercepted and the histogram has been shrinking and more encouragingly, today it is already resting flatly on the zero line.
6. Basing on the principle of MACD analysis this is a pattern that signal a trend reversal is imminent or about to happen and better day may be expected in the weeks to come.
7 The expending solid red histogram that measure the momentum has enormously shrunk. The fact that it has contracted to a flat bar and resting on the zero line indicates that the bears had overworked and showed sign of fatigue. This is indicative of a trend reversal is forthcoming. In the weeks to come the bears could be overcome and taken out.
8. The RSI has been trading at between the 32 and 35 point level. This is far below the 50 points neutral line. The recent decline has plunged the counter into the oversold region since 7th Dec 2023. Although it has remained in the oversold region and bearish for a prolonged period of time, the MACD analysis tells a different picture and indicates early sign of a trend reversal.
9. Hence, the recent bashed down price although painful has in fact opened up an opportunity for those with risk appetites to enter cheap in a big way.
10. This is my personal opinion of the counter and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. 11. Trade wisely 10/1/2024
Wonder if the prospect looks so promising, how come the institution fund selling like no tomorrow and to open market summore ? Nevertheless, seems so many positive supporter here, it's time to hoot in and get ready to sell to operator at rm1.
You see their disposed number and date are the same? They are the same group. They sell one time, 3 names are registered at the same time.
AFFINITY ASIA PACIFIC FUND IV (NO.2) L.P. (a substantial shareholder) disposed 4,272,000 shares on 10-Jan-2024. CONCORDANT INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 4,272,000 shares on 10-Jan-2024. CLARINDEN INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 4,272,000 shares on 10-Jan-2024.
AFFINITY ASIA PACIFIC FUND IV (NO.2) L.P. (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,300,000 shares on 09-Jan-2024. CONCORDANT INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,300,000 shares on 09-Jan-2024. CLARINDEN INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,300,000 shares on 09-Jan-2024.
AFFINITY ASIA PACIFIC FUND IV (NO.2) L.P. (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,213,100 shares on 08-Jan-2024. CONCORDANT INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,213,100 shares on 08-Jan-2024. CLARINDEN INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,213,100 shares on 08-Jan-2024.
1.LHI was listed on 16th May 2019 and that was 5 years ago. As I read further into the listing prospectus and analyse deeper into the changes in shareholdings of LHI, I realize that Clarinden Investment Pte Ltd was a cornerstone investor.
2. At its initial public offering the company sold 937,500,00 shares of which 250,000,000 were public issue and offer for sales of 687,500,000 by Dato Lau and his family.
3.The IPO price was fixed at Rm1.10 per share and Clarinden Investment Pte Ltd has acquired 328,898,300 shares.
4. Clarinden has invested in LHI and remained invested until Oct 2023 in which they decided to divest. Since Oct last year it has been selling and reducing its shareholding from its original holding of 328m to 304m in Nov 2023,and 288m in Dec 2023,and 227m in Jan 2024 5.As at 12/1/2024 it has sold 328m minus 227m or about 101m shares. The program selling has not eased and it is still continuing.
6. While we do not know the reasons why they sell and much less understand the decision it pain my heart to see Clarinden is incurring a overwhelmingly massive loss that is mind blowing. It is terrifying and You can do the math. Going forward and at the closing price of 56 sen, for each one (1) lot it sell it will lose -Rm540
7. Fellow investors and forumers must be pretty concern and anxious by the program selling and the extend of damage it will have on the share price. To address the anxieties,let's analyse by looking at the volume traded and closing price of LHI for the last trading 14 days.
8.Now on 22/12/23 the volume traded was 16.8m shares and the closing price was 57.5 sen. For the sake of analysis i have added up the volume traded for each day until 12/1/24. and the total volume traded is 102.96m shares and the closing price is 54.5 sen
9. This simply means for LHI to fall from 57.5 sen to 54.5sen it required 102.96m shares to change hand. If you add back the 1.5 sen price adjustment for dividend the share price is actually 56 sen. In conclusion 102m shares changed hand and share price collapsed by 1.5 sen
10. If this is taken as an observation and as a simple guide we could project that for LHI to fall from 54.5 sen to 50 sen there is a difference of 4.5 sen. This also means 102m x 3 or 306m shares must change hand for it to happen. Clarinden has balance 227m shares or less to do the damage. 11. If you have observed the trading pattern of LHI you would notice that for each million shares sell down it is absolved quickly and followed by a clear attempt to buy up again. Clearly another party is accumulating the shares divestment of Clarinden.
12. Market is still wondering who can take on this challenge and much more has the desire and interest to do so. It must be an interested party with deep pocket. Now, during IPO Dato Lau has offered for sales and sold 687,500,000 shares at Rm1.10. He has pocket Rm754m cash. These money can be employed to mitigate and overcome the selling and absolve all the shares. Hence, minority shareholders need not have sleepless nights and endless worries it could just be a ripple or storm in a tea cup.
13. It is also surprising to see the big fund manager of Clarinden loitering in the trading hall acting like small time remiser on a daily basis engaging in small volume trade. They could have engaged the professional and investment bankers and place out in blocks of multiple tens of million shares and disposed of in off market transaction with days or weeks. They could negotiate for a better price and just a guess Dato may even buy back from them. 14. Now assuming you have invested today at 54.5sen and become a partner in business with LHI, and unfortunately along the way it collapses to 50 sen. For taking a calculated risk of 4.5 sen what can you get from LHI?. Does it worth the risk?
15. Some other days when I have the inspiration I will write again. Happy trading 12/1/2024
No.11, I have noticed it too, it always have some buyers cut queue to buy at higher price, but the selling force is too strong, so the price didn't up that much and stagnant around there.
Fundamentally, nothing wrong with this Company. It is a growing company from RM7b revenue a few years ago to RM10b now. With floating prices & serving more than half billion of population in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam, it is a brainless value proposition. They are working hard to strike-off the allegations by MyCC which is baseless
I'm hoping for that ... I'll start adding more if hit 50cent. Good fundamental ... ALWAYS buy/sell on fundamental. Unless have external factor which I don't anticipate in the short term.
gankm
BBQ already. No point talking on fundamental. Everyday drop a bit and a bit. Will break below 0.50 cents very soon.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lazzo88
137 posts
Posted by lazzo88 > 2023-12-27 14:55 | Report Abuse
In short, blame the government 😆