China cap on energy comsumption (all this metal factory (coal power?) is being order to reduce operation) - this factor i got over look, thanks to one of the forumer (bignews) mention it and FeSi price (angmo said follow ferroglobe price for ease of seaching pricing) is the key, thanks to forumer VTrade on pricing reference
OMH is somewhere in the middle (samalaju smelter location), OMH also pmetal neighbor, and using bakun hydro power (ESG comply and no cap), distance to harbor is within 10km, can send end product or receive raw material
plus OMH half sales is not committed, is based on spot price.
I really looking for the Qr result
Exploration wise, it is almost 99% sure, coz they drill the appraisal well in historical mineral rich basin sector, i think they going to increase their stake to 60% subject to bryah partner want to pump in or not.
I have read all the information from @sims, maybe my English isn't good enough, I can't understand those bombastic words. Too hard for me to understand =(.
But I choose to invest in this company, not because of today LU. Hope I'm right on the train =)
Unfortunately the premise is flawed. Pmb is moving up but other metal players are consolidating, so actually every counter got their own players and script one
OMH makes 400k ton pa of FeSi/MnSi. Gross Profit margin is US$800-1000k / ton. Simple calculation, GPM for smelter could reach US$350-400m pa Mkt cap only A$700m or US$500m Super Low PE. Will be takeover target if price don’t move soon
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OMH is quite similar as PMBtech, both in special metal alloy industry, operating in Sarawak capitalizing on long terms greener and cheap hydro power while other players in the world (especially in China) are cutting output due to environmental concerns, their prices should be strong and up in short to mid terms.
We should expect very solid 2H2021 given the super high ferroalloy prices (GPM >100%!!!) OMH likely to make >A$100-200m profits (MYR 300-600m) for 2021
China Electricity Shock will further restrict the production of ferroalloy in China. Expect ferroalloy prices to rally higher FeSi now reaching US$3,000/ton (up 200% from 1 year), OMH cost is only US$1,000/ton OMH produces 400kton of ferroalloy. You can imagine the huge profit coming….
OM Sawarak is using hydro power on 20 year contract, cost is relatively fixed. Power cost in China and Europe are escalating, making OMH the cheapest cost producer. This is doing wonders for ferroalloy prices and OMH profits
Shortage of ferroalloy is expected to continue as China state grid said it would strictly control power consumption by high energy consuming and pollution sectors. This will drive OMH alloy prices even higher
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
wallstreetrookie
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Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2021-09-24 11:44 | Report Abuse
Heard on the Street: The growth story with ferro-silicon and increased demand for manganese. @sims has provided more detailed analysis