bsngpg

说得非常好。可行性也超高。以上也是我赚钱的策略。

那些弄我输钱的九成都是听回来的。经过几次大失血後，己学乖很久没再听人说了。

高买是另一个亏钱原因。就比如现在买进。少赚或慢赚好过亏。我们小散戶是不夠大戶拼的。接受现实吧。

投资股市，其实越怕死越好。与WB的铭言大致一样。

2013-12-27 14:15

kcchongnz

bsngpg, your words fall on deaf ears. Too bad.

But those words of yours are words of wisdom, a must to survive in the jungle out there. The reality of this stock market is; few people are wise enough to listen to words of wisdom. Everybody wants to hear positive words, too much of positive feelings, good karma they say. Little do they know words of caution, skepticism,fear (scared to die)etc are the necessary cognitive behaviour to survive.

高买是另一个亏钱原因. I would say buy high is the most important reason of losing. To me investment risk is buying a security at high price.

However, one must be skillful to determine what is high, because if he can't, he can miss good opportunity to buy and make extra-ordinary return. But I guess it is not as bad as simply buy and risk of losing money.

I know you are moving towards the second-level thinking; how to determine if something is cheap or expensive. Good on you.

2013-12-27 15:21

bsngpg

KCChong: thanks for your good words.
送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”+“身体万康”。

2013-12-27 16:29

kcchongnz

Shall we avoid risks? I don't agree so. We should understand risks, recognize risks and control risks.

Risk control is the best route to loss avoidance. Risk avoidance, on the other hand, is likely to lead to return avoidance as well.

It is by taking risks toward which others are averse in the extreme-that we strive to add value to our investment.

But we must understand, recognize and properly control risks to have positive outcomes. Without these, we could end up in troubles.

Merry Chritmas and happy new year.

2013-12-27 19:05

bsngpg

At relative low time: take risk for future gain(捞底).

At relative high time: take risk to maximize gain.

If I have read your comment right, it is talking about the later. I have some thought here.

If KLCI is now at 861 or 1061, it is more appropriate to talk about one should not "kia shi", instead should understand risk and then take risk to have positive return in long term.

Even though it is undeniable that at the current historical high(1861) there may be still some hidden value, but the risk of falling into a trap would be higher than getting a value. Taking Risk is an art on probability. At 1861, what is the probability to reach 2230 as compare to probability to down to 1480?

As an ordinary retail investor, I highly advocate "Simple". As I do not have high skill, I would better behave as what I am, eat only fat fishes with less bone. If there is no more fat fishes, just stop eating. Do not take risk to challenge small fish with tiny bone. In this case, you eat fat fishes too, but while I stop eating, you take risk to further enjoying small fish. But don't you think the risk of being chock is higher ? As an ordinary investor, shouldn't we content with moderate return and stop there to protect the earning or loss avoidance? Am I right to say that 90% or even 99% of retail investors do not have the required skill to challenge and earn from high?

2013-12-28 07:31

kcchongnz

No, I am not encouraging anyone, including myself to take risk to invest in the stock market when it is very high. I will just sell of my stocks and do nothing. I am "kia si" like hell too in investing like you. I also do not have the skill to control the risks in such a lofty market, not at all. Even if the market go higher later and I miss the opportunity to make more money, "it is ok for me when others make a lot of money, and I don't".

There are many times the market became risky like that. some of the time i can think of off hand are the Nifty Fifty in the early 1970 when the good dividend stocks (mind you good stocks) were selling at PE of high tens, or even hundred; the internet bubble in late 1990s when technology stocks were chased up when they earn nothing yet; the second board euphoria in the mid 1990s at home,etc. If you have invested at these times for long term, you most likely have lost money. Yes buying stocks at high price is risky, very risky.

But is KLSE that high now? I remember 20 years ago in 1993, KLSE was at about 1300, and it is now 1861. that translate to a compounded annual rate of growth of less than 2%. Add on another 3% dividend yield, the CAGR is only about 5%.

What is the broad market PE now? 15%? And what is the interest rate now? 3.5%. So the risk premium is about 3.5%. Yeah a bit low, but that is the broad market. Aren't there value stocks around?

Is buying a stock at a margin of safety of 30% risky? Yeah, it has become increasingly difficult to find such gems now. But still holding stocks with 20% of margin of safety risky? Not so to me.

2013-12-28 14:28