KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 10): Many who rose the ranks after him have taken the back seat in politics.

Yet it is only half surprise that at 97, former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has set out for his 11th general election, which could prolong or stall his political journey that has spanned nearly six colourful decades.

The doctor is going for another shot at Putrajaya in the 15th general election (GE15) — this time with a two-month-old coalition called Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA), and without any support from mainstream politics.

His persistence shows. In a recent interview with The Edge at the Perdana Leadership Foundation, Mahathir shared that he flew to Langkawi two full days ahead of the GE15 nomination day.

He recalled the GE14 four years ago, where a “technical problem” involving his flight nearly made him lose his chance at contesting.

“This time, I went two days earlier, so that if anybody wanted to sabotage my plane, I could find some other way of going to Langkawi,” he said half-jokingly.

Slightly toned down and still in good shape, he went on to spend a little under one hour for the interview. The man, who recovered from Covid-19 in September, had a glass of cold water with ice on his side.

The conversation touched on a multitude of issues from factors affecting the GE15, such as the enlarged voter base and the rainy season, chances of the different camps contesting, and his legacy as a statesman.

Of course, few doubt his ability to put up a good fight in the Kedah archipelago.

However, despite contesting 125 parliamentary seats on Nov 19, a Saturday, GTA is not seen as a serious threat in the political arena.

A lot has changed since 2018, when Mahathir's political career rose to a new peak after joining hands with the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition to oust the undefeated Barisan Nasional (BN) regime from Putrajaya.

In March this year, his party Pejuang — a breakaway from Bersatu and the second one he founded — lost all 42 seats contested in the Johor state election.

It thus begs the question as to why GTA wants to contest in the GE15, which involves the most factions in Malaysia’s history. Critics say it is only in the running to split the votes.

“The GE15 is, in fact, a very important election,” Mahathir said. “If [the incumbent] were to win, then they will ensure that they will always win, in the 16th and 17th general elections…so if we lose [in the GE15], then Malaysia will be ruled by criminals for the next 10 to 15 years,” Mahathir said, without mincing his words.

This time, he appears to have abandoned the multiracial rhetoric and emphasises the Malay-muslim agenda — an approach he adopted at the start of his political career, and which he has no qualms advocating now.

In his view, the opponent is the incumbent BN, who he says used a similar platform to undermine the PH government of 2018-2020. The fact is that a political party needs strong support from the Malay electorate to form the Government, he added.

“On the ground, we have accepted that we are different people,” said Mahathir. “If political parties do not accept that, or they want to be multiracial, they will just be rejected by the electorate on the ground.”

'No Malay support for DAP'

“PH has DAP, and because there is no Malay support for DAP, PH cannot win,” Mahathir said. “In the GE14, the victory by PH was due to, for the first time, Malays’ support for PH.”

With GTA, voters have an alternative to BN and Bersatu-led Perikatan Nasional (PN), Mahathir said.

“We need a strong GTA government...unpopular decisions can be made if the Government is strong,” he added, when asked about the challenges of the new Government to address issues like ballooning subsidies and its tight fiscal situation.

"When I was the PM in my first term, I had a two-third majority. I could make decisions which were unpopular, and I still remained as the PM,” Mahathir said, brushing aside accusations of his involvement in erosion of the separation of powers at the time.

It was an old strategy which he continued to follow in his second stint as the PM in 2018 to 2020. His resignation then would have seen him consolidating his power — if things went according to his plan.

He had to resign because Bersatu pulled out of the government, he said. It eventually ended with PH's collapse as the government.

“Yes, I will make the same decision [to resign], because I fully expect PH to support me,” he said, when asked if he would have made the same decision.

“If PH stuck to their resolution to support me, I would have gained 92 votes, plus 62 votes [from Bersatu and others]. I would [have gotten support from] 154 [Members of Parliament]…I would have become a very strong PM. The King decided to choose [Bersatu president Tan Sri] Muhyiddin [Yassin] as the PM, supposedly because he had support, but we didn’t believe [that he had it when he was first appointed].”

There is no love lost for Mahathir among his dissenters. They held him responsible for PH’s collapse in 2020, and Umno’s return to Putrajaya soon following his resignation as the PM.

“It would seem that they are not focused on attending to the problems of the nation,” Mahathir commented on the state of the Opposition. PN is formed mainly by Bersatu, a former PH coalition member, and PAS, formerly a coalition member of PH’s predecessor Pakatan Rakyat. Warisan, led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, is no longer avoiding a clash with PH as well.

“We have to accept that we can work with the people who are not so bad,” Mahathir added. “Just like in the GE14, DAP and PH were against me, [but] I preferred them to [then PM Datuk Seri] Najib [Razak], so I worked with them against Najib. And because I worked with them, Najib lost.”

Like it or not, the Malay tsunami in the GE14 was partly thanks to Mahathir’s presence in PH. 

Instead of winning seats, GTA’s presence could chip away Malay votes, but from which camp? In Johor, not only Pejuang was wiped out. PN and PH suffered huge losses too, as BN secured a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

Further, Pejuang’s onslaught in Johor hinted at an uphill battle to maintain its presence of four seats in the Dewan Rakyat, all of which were won in the GE14 under the Bersatu ticket when it was part of PH. (One of the four, incumbent Sri Gading MP Datuk Dr Shahruddin Md Salleh, is parachuted to contest Umno’s seat in Kuala Krau, Pahang in the GE15.)

It is a stark contrast to the past, when Mahathir led Malaysia’s strongest political party Umno and BN to win a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat without fail, in every election from 1982 to 1999.

But if there is one certain thing about Mahathir, it is that he should never be underestimated. Who knows, the maverick could spring yet another surprise.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/underdog-dr-m-plays-hand-hes-dealt