New Toyo can buy over Tien Wah on the cheap. This is a super real concern for Tien Wah shareholders. With so much cash in New Toyo, this can be easily done.

I am not talking down. I am talking facts...

those who continued to buy Tien Wah at above 2.50 RM will be regretting now... think Tien Wah is now set to correct to below 2.40RM...might even reach 2.30RM... Just be patient...

2.43RM down 6.17%!!!

Tien Wah dropped by 3.2% at opening. Let's see how low it dropped. Bid is at 2.40RM. Don't think people will come out and say " I will buy when it drops lower..."...

All the brave defenders of Tien Wah all gone without a trace? Or are they frightened by Tien Wah Q4 terrible results?

with tobacco tax increase in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia plus plain packaging in Australia, printing volume and revenue have been seriously impacted. Those who continue to defend that Tien Wah's business is sustainable should think twice!

Terrible set of Q4 results. Tien Wah has cut its final dividend. Expect share price to drop to below 2.50 RM...

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1498733

massive dumping by Armed Forces; more than 2% in a single day!

http://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/1945046/price-of-cigarettes-increases-125/?cs=112

Good Luck to Tien Wah. Printing Volume in Australia will continue to slide. Coupled this with the decline in Aussie Dollar, Tien Wah Q4 is expected to be badly impacted...

In property market cycle, u don't buy when the cycle is at its peak and the bubble is about to prickle. Similar for Tien Wah too. thisis my humble view. tks.

http://www.proprint.com.au/News/312283,plain-tobacco-pack-law-puts-the-choke-on-fancy-printing.aspx

Impact of Plain Packaging on Anzpac (JV b/w New Toyo and Tien Wah).

let's be frank with ourselves. It is not going to be a multi-bagger at this current price level. Is there enough safety of margin of at least 50% upside potential? Don't think so too.

There are simply no catalysts for upside price movement...

Tobacco companies are trying to put up a false pretence that plain packaging has not impacted on the sales volume of cigarettes. But this might not be true. Just look at Tien Wah’s Q3 result will give one an idea of the degree of impact. Q3 was typically the strongest quarter.

Profit before tax (Tien Wah's Q3 Results)
Profit before tax of RM12.3 million for the third quarter ended 30 September 2013 was lower by RM2.0
million or 14.0% as compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter of RM14.3 million.
The aforesaid unfavourable results for the quarter were impacted by lower revenue and weakening of the
Australian dollar over the preceding year corresponding quarter

let's be honest with ourselves. What are the key essential growth drivers for Tien Wah when the regulatory environment for tobacco is getting tougher year after year. With the advent of e-cig and 3D-printing, will traditional printers be displaced soon?

Tks for all the comments.
Let's ask another hard question.
Why does BAT "divest" out its printing functions to other printers like Tien Wah? Was that a shrewd move to "divest and outsource" the “less profitable” segment while keeping to the core profitable tobacco making? If so, aren’t printers just scratching the pot bottom for crumbles?

One should ask the hard truth . Why does Amcor divest its stake in Tien Wah if Tien Wah is so good ? Amcor is the one of the biggest players in the printing sector in this part of the world .

We all know that doing business in China is very competitive, and yet Amvig is able to extract much higher gross profit margin than Tien Wah (30% versus 20% or 50% much higher for case of Amvig).

What does this tell us about the level of productivity of Amvig versus Tien Wah? From experience, I would say Chinese are definitely more "hard-working".

Tien Wah "WAS" attractive had one bought it below 2.0 RM but not now. The valuation is quite rich. this is my humble view. There are much better counters out there.

A good comparator for Tien Wah is Amvig (listed in Hong Kong).

a. Amvig gross profit margin is the region of 30% while that for Tien Wah is barely 20%.

b. Amvig is constantly undertaking printing capacity expansion for future growth while Tien Wah has already stopped installing new capacity since 2011. This is because demand for Tien Wah’s printing has already stagnated while Amvig is still growing its market share in China.

c. With much better GPM than Tien Wah, Amvig’s P/E is only 8. Should Tien Wah trade above this P/E level? I think not likely. If I am investor, I would rather buy Amvig than Tien Wah. Amcor has a big stake in Amvig but sold off its stake in Tien Wah many years ago.

All these info can be founded at Amvig’s website below.
http://www.amvig.com/eng/ir/highlight.htm
http://www.amvig.com/eng/ir/report.asp

Who are the other "top printers" in Malaysia? What is Tien Wah's share of the markets? What is Tien Wah's competitive advantage over other printers?

it is not about talking down Tien Wah. it is about presenting facts on Tien Wah. It is naive to think that one single person can "talk down" a counter? this must be the best joke of the year...

The thing about New Toyo better than Tien Wah is that it has its own specialty paper segment which has picked up strongly with the new contract with PMI, the biggest tobacco player in the world.

If you noticed that although New Toyo only owns 54% of Tien Wah equity, it has more than 70% of Tien Wah's group profit. This is because of the JV called MEIL, which allows New Toyo to cream off profits. MEIL is a money spinner for New Toyo.

Tien Wah's master is New Toyo. This is the truth.

Tien Wah has dropped back below 2.50. More downside is possible from here...

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1896824/tax-increases-could-stop-250000-smoking/?cs=12

http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/rm2b-in-taxes-lost-to-illicit-cigarettes-font-color-red-exclusive-font-1.365906?cache=03%2F7.157305%2F7.261895%2F7.266429%2F7.266429%2F7.268476%2F7.283795%2F7.283795%3Fkey%3DMalaysia%2F7.454177%2F7.454177%2F7.454177%2F7.502513%2F7.502513%2F7.502513%2F7.502513

0915 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS notes that the RBA sold a net A$0.33 billion during October, a figure which its analysts call "highly unusual", pointing out that unbalanced activity on this scale hasn't been seen for four years. The RBA regularly acts as agent for the Australian government in the FX market, selling just enough Australian dollars to meet Canberra's foreign currency needs. In October, though, the RBA bought significantly more foreign currency than the government needed, and was a net seller of Australian dollars to do so, UBS points out. The RBA has repeatedly expressed a preference for a weaker currency to help rebalance the domestic economy away from mining. But the Fed's perceived delay in tapering QE3 has helped keep AUD/USD aloft. "This latest evidence now suggests that the RBA's patience may be running out, and that the central bank may have finally begun to lean against the wind - albeit very gently." AUD/USD trades around 0.9274 after printing a two-month low of 0.9258 earlier.

Given the above outlook, Tien Wah should retreat back to below its NAV, probably 2.2 to 2.3 RM range. this is more sustainable price range.

Let's be rational about Tien Wah.

1. How big is the printing market (tobacco and non-tobacco sectors) in Asia Pacific and how much is Tien Wah's share of the market?

2. Smoking rates and legal volume for cigarette volumes has decreased and will continue to decrease in Malaysia and Australia, 2 of the 4 exclusive printing zones in the contract with BAT. How is Tien Wah going to expand its market share when the sector itself is shrinking? Tien Wah did not reveal its printing volumes in its financial statements. Even at constant revenue, the cost of products has gone up due to inflation. Hence, the real printing volume decrease would have been much greater. Is Tien Wah venturing into new markets to mitigate the printing volume drop in Malaysia and Australia?

3. The Australian dollar will continue to drop over the next few years. This will also translate into lower earnings for Tien Wah for its operations in Anzpac.

4. With the advent of e-cigarette, the traditional cigarette volume is going to decrease even more rapidly. Hence, the demand for conventional printing will drop as well. How is Tien Wah going to deal with this?

Quite unlikely for Tien Wah's share price to move up from here when its revenue and profit are already stagnating or declining rite?

tks.