https://youtu.be/RZC63kusSvA

Can GDB grow into a mini Sunway?

At time like this is better to take a tougher "quick ratio" to evaluate the risk situation....at normal time, I will use a "current ratio" is enough....apply this to those stocks you have invested....stay safe!

https://www.thestar.com.my/metro/metro-news/2020/03/19/oh-039that039-ban-construction-firm-fined-rm50k-for-operating-during-mco

Likely, market is downed due to locked down fear...

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/announcements/view/629260

Read report part 2a, page 84 under CEO report, section outlook

If you look back to the 2015 annual report, AirAsia has done a major hedging at USD54 for 2016.....reported by Irene Omar then. AirAsia ended 2016 at a record profits....

Now AirAsia has a chance to hedge it even lower for 2021 and 2022....let us see whether AirAsia can do it right this time....

https://www.gdbhb.com.my/portfolio/aira-residence/

https://youtu.be/sZ9PmfsKJnY

GDB Profit Attributable:
2016 - 14.2 million
2017 - 22.5 million
2018 - 27.9 million
2019 - 29.1 million
2020 - 36.0 million(my rough estimate)

GDB is still well supported after a strong run up since Q4 last year.

Going forward, GDB needs to do a good quality delivery on the secured projects. There are not many quality construction companies in Malaysia. GDB should capitalize on this.....

To propel GDB growth, the one billion revenue target should be a regular discuss and deliberated at the board level.

Target by 2024....

If look at Kerjaya....it has gone up about 10 times in 8 years(2010 to 2018)

Proposed Transfer of Listing to Main Board
GDB proposes the transfer of listing of the company from the ACE Market to
Main Market of Bursa Malaysia.
GDB has met the requirements for the proposed transfer, which include profit
requirements, financial position and liquidity, public shareholding spread and
Bumiputera equity requirement.
The proposed transfer requires approvals from the Securities Commission
Malaysia, Bursa Securities, and its shareholders in an EGM to be convened
later. The exercise is expected to be completed by 1H20.
Our View
The proposed transfer does not come as a surprise as we had highlighted in
our report dated 27 September 2019 on its prospect of transfer of listing to
Main Board.
The transfer will give a better reflection of its existing scale of operations, and
enhance the company’s credibility and reputation, which in turn improves the
confidence of GDB’s clients, sub-contractors, suppliers and employees.
For the investment community, the proposed transfer listing will gain greater
recognition and acceptance among investors, including institutional investors, as
well as boosting the confidence of its shareholders.
Impact
Maintain FY19 to FY21 earnings forecasts.
Valuation
No change to our target price of RM0.69, based on unchanged 12x CY20
earnings. Maintain Buy.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/announcements/view/3082168

https://youtu.be/wQdaUyWSrR0

Dividend never lie....

To see the value of a business few years ahead is a very difficult one ...but it is one that we must try very hard to figure out...

@Samtuckfatt....interesting comment....

GDB’s valuation at one billion revenue

Lately, GDB’s MD Cheah’s comment on target of one billion revenue in 5 years prompted me to look at this feasibility.


It is interesting as it offer me a view to look at GDB’s possibility by 2024….


With GDB securing about RM953 million contracts in 2019 helps in this 2024 plan.


Conservatively, GDB should be able to do about RM450 revenue next year(2020)


Assuming 25% revenue growth yearly subsequently after 2020, the revenue will reach about RM1.1 billion by 2024.


If you look at Kerjaya’s 2018 revenue, it is about RM1.07 billion. The revenue for 2019 two quarters is about RM524 million.

So full year 2019 is likely to be about one billion as well….


As of today Kerjaya’s share price is 1.31 with a share base of 1,241 mil shares. GDB’s is 625 mil shares….

So, roughly Kerjaya’s share base is double that of GDB…


If we reduce Kerjaya’s share base by half(about same with GDB), its share price should be 2x1.31= 2.62….


So if GDB can reach one billion by 2024, its share price should be closed to RM2.62


For margin of safety, you can take a discount to say RM2.00. If GDB current price is 50 sen, so potentially, there is

still 4 times upside…


Note: The assumption is GDB can reach one billion revenue by 2024

Dividend policy: one of the most important for investors!

https://youtu.be/wQdaUyWSrR0

Try add up and estimate the contract work to be completed for 2020....then put a 8 to 10% margin for the bottom line....my quick estimation EPS should be at least 6 sen....multiply with a PE of 10....it should be around 60 sen....very rough estimate!

GDB: So what is next after the recent rise?

If you have missed the 1st part of GDB's rise, just sit back and see if the market might provide another pullback opportunity or not.....

But I want to stress here is the importanr 2nd part....the target by Cheah to reach one billion revenue in 5 years....This to me is the more important part if really it can happened. I am telling you a lie if I tell you now that it can happened. I will probably need at least another 7 months to figure this out....

One really interesting project that was highlighted by Cheah is the more than 60 storeys project that GDB is eyeing....if GDB gets this project, it is really going to be exciting time....keeping my fingers crossed for now. Securing this project is likely to make GDB much easier to go into the one billion revenue club in 5 years...hopefully within 7 months we can know something.

The story of GDB to me is just starting and hopefully it can be an exciting one.....just harbour a little hope.....

Alfred Chen latest video:

https://youtu.be/jXCtB0D5s34

Do you think GDB's story will just end here? Take a bit of time to read through the Edge report...I bet you will find some reasons that you will want to investigate further....

Focus your mind on GDB 5 years one billion dollar plan...then you will forget about the current happenings...spend time to understand and follow up in the next AGM....after you understand convinced on the plan, automatically you know what to do!

If after your homework and study, you are not convinced, then just drop it and study another counter....

Otherwise I there is no reason for me to load up on this stock since last year....as I said near term price target is not critical unless your plan is for trades only....

I am long on GDB...so the near term price fluctuation is not critical to me...as long as what Cheah said that GDB can reach one billion revenue in 5 years, I am more than ok liao....

I suggest just buy a bit and attend the next AGM to hear from the horses' mouth.....

There is money to be made here for sure!

I am looking for GDB's share price to more than one ringgit in a few years...annual compounding rate of at least 20% per year...

White wolf...great that you think the same! We will in next AGM for sure...will be glad to meet up with great minds...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/gdb-targets-rm1b-turnover-five-years

You are welcome....Be more as an investor...less of a trader....I myself do trades, but my experience tell me you will make big money in the right stock pick and hold for a long time,but only coffee money in trades...It is so difficult to find a potential business at the very beginning stage at IPO or at least near it, so don't trade it away when you found one!

Final decision stays with us, nobody else....

Try search in YouTube....

I have not written for awhile….I wrote quite a bit last year on GDB.

GDB is one of my selected stock for investment since last year…..you can still likely see them in i3 forum….

I am glad that GDB has not failed me in my roughly one year of investment…..there are many more years that
I will stay invested unless I find something that I am not happy about the business or the management….

Mr. Cheah and Alexander are the two main persons I talk to in the last AGM….I feel good with them…..Cheah was previously from Mitsui construction which I feel have provided him a good platform to learn good construction practices, from planning to safety to 5S and project management and execution….he is an engineer not a salesman, which is good……

The construction industry is a very competitive one even in Malaysia….just like in any sector, you must be good at it, then the opportunity is still there…..GDB is a construction company but not an ordinary one….I hope my view is correct….

Secured contract value is no secret, everybody get to know it….but the great difference is finally your delivery cost when you finished the construction works from materials to labor and so forth….Another construction company can secured the same project at the same contract value but if its delivery cost is not efficient, it will end up with a lower profit margin….while contract value is important, it is not the only thing that determine your margin….

I noticed a guy that wrote and list down all the negatives on GDB…..my guess is likely he has sold out earlier and is hoping some negatives will provide him the chance to buy back….I also hope that GDB can pullback so that I can also add more…..I am serious…..

The GDB website is a good place to see GDB's record on deliveries…..the word "I heard" can be dangerous….you don't know the information source accuracy and intentions…..

To me GDB is still a baby at this stage….if it really have the DNA as what I predicted, it may well end up as a gorilla in years to come….Investing is an art, everybody is different….so follow your own thinking and not let others influence you….do your homework…once you are convinced, stick with it!

While I am not against technical approach, I am heavily leaned towards fundamental approach as I take investing as a business, trading is a byproduct of it….I really like what Alfred Chen is doing educating many on the fundamentals of investing…..I always joke with my friends, just watch Alfred Chen's videos on Youtube and it will help you a lot……

1.2 billion over 3 years....just do a simple mathematics on earnings and put a multiple of 10, then you will roughly know how much GDB is worth next year....

Dividend received....check your saving accounts....

BBC predictions 2039:

https://youtu.be/BsJWzkuX-Dw

Maintenance is on AirAsia for sure....

RM472.6 mil vs RM520.5 mil...

A better way now is to look at the EBITDA...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mfrs-16-positive-some-negative-others

The lower the trade receivable the better....

Already pays 3 times dividend since IPO....Solid dividend pay master...

Foreign Shareholdings:

2014 Dec: 60.83%
2019 Jul: 30.69%

Foreigners has reduced their shareholdings by about 30%

Ringgit was about 3.5 to 1USD in Dec 2014...ringgit has weakened since then...

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/liar/178127.jsp

Something i just find on on the web.....

https://www.barrons.com/articles/airasia-time-to-sell-says-jp-morgan-1473913989

This was the sell call by JP Morgan in Sep 2016....and when 2016 full year ended, AirAsia was on record profits breaking year...we really need to judge ourself carefully...some fund houses and individuals have their own agenda....

The sochai Kelvin Tan is trying to promote his stock UZMA at AirAsia chat group.....you should read back what he wrote about AirAsia in 2016...you can still Google for it....

https://youtu.be/i-C4iBV_PMs

Watch this video and then look at GDB's Q1 report on receivable and then compare this to other construction companies, then you can see something there....

@RogerTan901111...

Agree...AirAsia is still a great business! Can't say that for AAX though! I myself prefer a more comfortable flight for long distant and of understand i need to pay more for it! For less than 2 hours flight i still go for AirAsia!

I have invested in AirAsia and not AAX base on my own earlier research. And i guess i was right on the choice. AAX may need to tweak the business model a bit so that long distant flight need to be more comfortable but price adjusted accordingly!

Agree somewhat...customers still have a choice with other airlines....whereas AirAsia has no choice with MAHB....

I invested in AirAsia partly because of the brand value...so it is sad to see there are serious flaws there on customer complaints...who doesn't have flaws...what is important is management take speedy corrective actions to address them....

I agree on the petition against the RM73 PSC charges...MAHB is just trying a quick buck out of KLIA2....