@freetospeak If Supermax price hit TP RM100, hundreds over retail investors holding minimum 10k shares suddenly become MILLIONAIRE!!!

& Those Millionare (HNW) become Ultra-HNW client!!!

Posted by Pudu's Ah Fah > Jun 25, 2020 1:24 PM | Report Abuse

Pudu's Ah Fah ( Vegetable Seller) Ah Fah put all Ah Fah's milo tin money inside here. Ah Fah's TP RM 100

2nd wave coming

3rd coming next year

4th wave coming soon 2022

5th in the making 2023

Ah Fah bought RM8.50 & intend to sell out at RM90. So Ah Fah no greedy but put TP RM 100.


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I could be wrong but If assumptions are correct, TP RM100 by @Pudu's Ah Fah (Vegetable Seller) looks sensible.

__________________________________________________________________


Mana AH FAH? Sekarang semua kira untung bilion-bilion!

TP RM100 by Ah Fah is not for TG but Supermax!!!

Mungkin esok lusa atau minggu depan giliran EU countries pula.

@freetospeak, so far Supermax does not affected right?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/amid-claims-bonded-labour-use-top-glove-australias-healthcare-sector-urged-scrutinise-supply

Hmmmm after US, now Australia.

Posted by DJoker89 Jul 21, 2020 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

1788 add up = 24
24th July is the awaiting result. Party continue entire month of July.

muaaahahahahahahahahahhahahhah.

Ripley's Believe it or not!!!
21/07/2017 3:45 PM

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@DJoker89 24th July is it a joke or real announcement date?

Posted by Calvintaneng Jul 14, 2020 1:16 PM | Report Abuse

Today is a great day for Calvin

Bought Supermax at Rm1.73

Now Rm17.53

Up a whopping 1,000%

In year 2000 Calvin bought Mpi at Rm4.50

Very early sold Mpi at Rm5.00 to make 10%

After selling Mpi it rose from Rm5.00 to Rm50.00 for 1,000%

At last I have learnt my lessons

Sit tight in a bull run

The best thing to do in a bull run is to sit tight and do nothing

Many happy returns

Regards
Calvin

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Just sharing my lesson


Bought Uniphone at RM2.01 in early Jan 2000

Up to ++RM12.00 in Mid-Feb 2000

Up a whopping ++600%

But

Very early sold Uniphone at Rm2.09 to make <3%

30 minutes after sold, LIMIT UP that day & price keep going up!

So Lesson Learned!



Now

Still holding Supermax since end-May & not really bother about daily noises.

Waiting Q4 Result patiently.

DJoker89 Boleh tak ada masalah.

@OTB Sifu Thank you very much.

1992 1993 Super Bull

Guys, if you are long enough trading in the market, this could be mimicking 1992 1993 superbly.

The only different is those days, price of biscuit company or timber company rallied from RM3 or RM4 going to RM100 WITHOUT STRONG FUNDAMENTALL!!!

As of now, IB yg paling berani is CLSA, predicted ASP will remain high until 2023.

@patrick8 You are most welcome

@DJoker89 & @Mtrade, check price on 6July 2020 (the day Supermax Analyst Briefing notes was dated 5 July, Sunday), until today 10 July 2020.

Check the price on Monday 6 June until Today Friday 10 June. Price up none stop. Volume increased.

Now someone know how to estimate PAT.

We retailer can not buy this kind of volume.

Could be the work of Foreign FM buying. My 2cents.

@spermx Sekarang all TA signals pointing extremely overbought, Daily, Weekly, Monthly. I have a chat with one of Chartish & he said this is unprecedented.

Q3 Revenue was RM447 mil at about 70% or 75% capacity & ASP +USD20

Q4 Revenue about 4 times because ASP is USD73.33 & 95% Capacity.

In my calculation, I do not add 4 Bil additional capacity from new factories. Hope this assumption is consider conservative.

@Patrick8 Q4 revenue is not RM2.261 Bil

Revised Revenue estimate is RM1.591 Bil

Opss Sorry typo error

2) USD1.00=RM4.20 not RM4.30

Q4 EPS RM0.68 or PAT RM927.5 mil

Assuming ASP for OEM flat from Q4 2020 until Q3 2021, at $100 per 1,000 pieces & EXCLUDING OBM Price, Total EPS = RM2.72

PE 15 - 40.80
PE 20 - 54.40
PE 25 - 68.00
PE 30 - 81.60

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Posted by 20202023 > Jun 1, 2020 11:19 PM | Report Abuse

Earning Estimate - Q4 (01/04/2020 - 30/06/2020)

('000)
Revenue 2,261,867
Operating Expenses -353,018
EBITDA 1,908,849
Depreciation -13,088
EBIT 1,895,761
Profit before tax (PBT) 1,892,234
Taxation 455,272
Profit after tax (PAT) 1,436,963
EPS RM1.06

Based on assumption:
1) ASP per 1k pieces $101.83
2) USD1.00=RM4.30
3) Capacity 95%
4) Annual Capacity 21,750,000 (Additional 4.0 bil capacity on H2, 2020)
5) Quarter Capacity 5,437,500
6) Number of Shares 1,360,000 (1.36 bil)

7) ASP assumption $70 2 weeks (01/04/2020 -15/04/2020)
$100 4 weeks (16/04/2020 - 15/05/2020)
$110 4 weeks (16/05/2020 - 15/06/2020)
$121 2 weeks (16/06/2020 - 30/06/2020)
Average ASP $101.83

Manufacturer selling price $20 (Jan 2020)
$70 (18 March onward)

8) Operating expenses, interest expense, depreciation/amortisation similar to Q3

I run simulation in excel based on the above assumption. Q4 EPS = RM1.06

Disclaimer ; Simulation based on the above assumption which may be wrong/inaccurate. Need input from everyone for cross-checked / realistic assumption.


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Let's recap my previous posting on 1 June 2020.


Below is PAT estimate based on info from Supermax Analyst Briefing Slides dated 5 July 2020.

Please take note, the PAT estimate ONLY BASED ON OEM ASP & EXCLUDING OBM & Own DISTRIBUTOR Price.

THEREFORE,

REVISED Earning Estimate - Q4 (01/04/2020 - 30/06/2020)

('000)
Revenue 1,591,013
Operating Expenses -353,018
EBITDA 1,297,995
Depreciation -13,088
EBIT 1,224,907
Profit before tax (PBT) 1,221,308
Taxation 293,864
Profit after tax (PAT) 927,516
EPS RM0.68

Based on assumption:
1) ASP per 1k pieces $73.33
2) USD1.00=RM4.30
3) Capacity 95%
4) Annual Capacity 21,750,000 (Additional 4.0 bil capacity on H2, 2020)
5) Quarter Capacity 5,437,500
6) Number of Shares 1,360,000 (1.36 bil)

7) ASP assumption $50 April 2020
$70 May 2020
$100 June 2020
Average ASP $73.33

Manufacturer selling price $20 (Jan 2020)
$70 (18 March onward)

8) Operating expenses, interest expense, depreciation/amortisation similar to Q3

I run simulation in excel based on the above assumption. Q4 EPS = RM0.68

Disclaimer ; Simulation based on the above assumption which may be wrong/inaccurate. Need input from everyone for cross-checked / realistic assumption.

@CharlesT TP RM10 only for short-term, 1 or 2 weeks times

FA TP is much much higher than TA TP.

Those can wait a bit longer, will be handsomely rewarded!!!

Kalau boleh sabar, tunggu sampai quarter announcement.

Cup & Handle formation will be completed within 1 or 2 weeks time.

TP RM10 based on this pattern.

Cup & handle formation.

Eventually TA (price action) will reflecting improved Fundamental !!!

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Jun 18, 2020 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

Hahaha....Another possibility is cup & handle formation.

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Short-term down trend ended on 29 June 2020!!!

Now cup & handle formation in the making!!!

We should thanks Team A as indirectly help us buy cheap!!!!

@freetospeak Don't bother much on noises as these noises are meant for short-term trading (timing to enter & exit, but low sell high). What more important is improved fundamental.

If personally benefits from this noises, as I am also taking trading position & re-invest contra gain.

My mid-term view on Fantastic 4 especially Supermax does not change yet!!!

Why bother selling now if you are sure PAT can multiple!!!!

@degaht I also agree with you. Just that, I think being analyst in IB, he or she has to follow certain discipline so he or she need to remind the downside risks as well.

In our case, we are so eager to point out the up-side risks as we may be in the position that will benefits us.

There are licence/professional that bound to certain regulations. They can play dirty but it must be in a smart way!

@freetospeak pre-covid 19, TG & Harta trade between 40x to 60x Forward PE or at +1.5 to +2.0 Standard Deviation over 5 or 7 years mean.

What does it mean is when the valuation remain high those days, there are so many institutional investors in TG & Harta.

When smart money (triggered by I guess KYY & the gangs) see the earning potential of gloves companies & push the price up, Insti takes turn to lock-in profit. This is normal as majority do not has inside info.

I occasionally check with my ex-colleague (FM) & he seem do not know what transpire behind the scene. And when analyst come out with earning projection,typically your earning numbers will not far from Bloomberg consensus. It's normal as no one wanted to be too optimistic nor pessimistic vs consensus.

So, now more info are coming out & everyone in the town are wrong on their initial TP.

Now is like play catch up as current price is way below undervalue!!!

No one know for sure whether there will be supply glut in 2022 onward as there are motivated players with aggressive capacity expansion. But my gut feeling says, the world has changed now, it's a new normal with per capita usage of gloves will never going back to pre-covid.

In conclusion, I am more than happy if I am still holding gloves shares, Shares price trading @ 20x Forward PE for 2022 onward.

@Newplayer mine is slightly higher @ EPS RM0.50 per quarter.

If you notice, in this last two days, the speed of price recovery is too fast. As if, institutional investors are flocking into Supermax. I could be wrong but based on my previous experience working in "buy-side", looks like sectorial weightaged adjustment is happening & gloves companies will receive the biggest inflow from fund.

@freetospeak I disagree with majority of people that once we got safe vaccine to cure covid-19, ASP of USD100-USD150 will revert to ASP pre-covid around USD25.

Never in the modern world history, human being face such a very widespread global pandemic scale. Bear in mind, government around the world are now learned a very hard lesson as majority do not anticipate this pandemic happening.

Now, hospitals have zero stocks & surely this is not good risk management. More money will be allocated & spend towards re-stocking which I do not expect any rational government will revert their healthcare spending to pre-covid once pandemic over.

So, on that argument ASP USD25 is out of equation.

Maybe once pandemic over, ASP USD50 is more reasonable as the world embracing new normal.

For the time being, LET THE PROFIT RUN!!!!!

@freetospeak you always give big discounts (i.e 50% discount) on your TP just in case your assumptions are incorrect.

Ppl can criticise or mock you if your TP is incorrect but what if your assumption are correct?

So far, I have not seen anyone in this Supermax forum that is very diligent like you & can support an arguement with GOOD FACTS!!!

If I can bet, I want your conservative TP to be correct & breach sooner than later!!!

Posted by freetospeak > Jun 30, 2020 12:48 PM | Report Abuse

all the ib show exceptionally low projection(except for uob )for supermax becoz they haven buy enuff. they purposely understate so that they can buy in more b4 it fly high.
u think they dunno the huge earning potential for supermax when even with limited info , i also can come up with much higher earning than them. bak in h1n1 flu virus.supermax is one of the top pick among all glove counter becoz of obm. but when come to covid. not many covered deeply. u know why.

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In this case, I have no doubt that you are 100% right!!!

When more people started to realise on this,

TP RM10 is a matter of time.

TP RM16 is reasonable to achieve.

Posted by freetospeak > Jun 30, 2020 8:17 AM | Report Abuse

According to supermax analyst report. Oem weitage will decrease from 30 to 5%. This additional 25% is about 100mil sales (400m/4). Lets assume it will be free up for majority spot trade n obm sales.
The precovid oem price is 23usd.
The price for april to jun spot n obm price is 150 to usd190.
About 6 x increase.
100m x5= 500mx0.7 = 350 m pat.

The above is only the oem convert to obm portion which commnads the highest growth.
Lets assume the 300m remaining sales to hav 50% increase in sales due to asp increase.
150m x0.7 = 100 M PAT

TOTAL = 450 M PAT

IF 20% increase in sales volume due to max out production.
450 x1.2=540 mil pat.

Eps for qtr 4 = 40sen
Eps for qtr1 = 40sen
2 qtr eps already =80 sen
Pe 20 = 16.00

TIME FOR SOME OPTIMISTIC PROJECTION.

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@freetospeak I guess your TP RM16 is too conservative as you counts estimate PAT of Q4 & Q1 only. Normally, TP derives from 4 rolling quarters earning estimate. In this case seems like zero PAT for Q2 & Q3.

Based on your projection the appropriate TP should be double @ RM32 !!!

Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

 Jun 17, 2020 11:06 PM | Report Abuse 

Over last 2 weeks, I read comments from both bear team & bull team and my conclusion is both are right. 
Bear team is right for short-term direction of Supermax price (drop, correction, pullback etc) but eventually bull team will become a clear winner post Q4 result (July earliest or Aug) as price will revert to the FA (based on improved fundamental)

================================================================================

Strong & Sudden Reversal of short-term trend today coz bear team get caught by surprise!!!

Remember, eventually bull team will become a clear winner!!!

Let chat a bit on TA

Today 25 June 2020, price dropped to EMA 20 days @ RM7.00

Thursday, 18 June 2020, price dropped to intra-day low of RM6.50 & closed @ RM6.93 but off EMA 22days @ RM6.70

Wednesday, 3 June 2020 touched intra-day @ RM5.33 (30% limit-down) but closed @ RM7.14

Prospective earning promising. FA fantastic!!! TA also look good!!!

Trend reversal in the making. Correction is over.

Pudu's Ah Fah ( Vegetable Seller) Ah Fah put all Ah Fah's milo tin money inside here. Ah Fah's TP RM 100

2nd wave coming

3rd coming next year

4th wave coming soon 2022

5th in the making 2023

Ah Fah bought RM8.50 & intend to sell out at RM90. So Ah Fah no greedy but put TP RM 100.


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I could be wrong but If assumptions are correct, TP RM100 by @Pudu's Ah Fah (Vegetable Seller) looks sensible.

Additional EPS of RM0.38 per quarter (50% sold to Americas market)

Assuming Additional EPS of RM0.19 (another 50% sold to the rest of the world with incremental ASP hike of only USD25 instead of hike of USD50)

So, Total Additional EPS = RM0.57 per quarter!!!

Q4 EPS RM0.62 or PAT RM843.2 mil


PE 15 - 37.20
PE 20 - 49.60
PE 25 - 62.00
PE 30 - 74.40

freetospeak Supermax Healthcare Inc import

QTR 3 1380 ton
QTR 4 2484 ton (upto jun15)( about 2x)

ASP for qtr 4 (US$ 120-150, spot rate as high as USD190) (at least 2x vs qtr 3)

profit at least 4x of qtr 3.

https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc

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Q4 Additional profit from USA market only

= (USD120-USD70) x (26.0 Bil / 4Q x 50%) x RM4.20 x 0.76 / 1,000 pieces
= RM518.7 mil

Additional EPS = RM0.38 per quarter

@Dynasty based on this latest info from @freetospeak, additional PAT RM500 mil is looks achievable!!!

Waaaah! Banyak tinggi itu TP 100 lah @Ah Fah.
Tapi apa macam pun kena adjust itu TP post Q4 result announcement lah.

@freetospeak thank you for the valuable info.

Look like the record profits is highly likely!

In the meantime, it's interesting to read comments from short-term/contra/daily traders.

Hahaha....Another possibility is cup & handle formation.

Hmmm, improved fundamental does not fit with formation of head & shoulders. Maybe inverted head & shoulders very likely!!!

@kelvin5349 whether there is vaccine earliest end-2020 or next year, this glove superbull will remain intact.
Everyone including governments has learned a good lesson. Budget for healthcare post covid-19 will not revert to the same level prior covid19 crisis.
Budget per capita will increase for sure!

One more thing, in my previous comment (maybe 2 weeks ago), I made EPS guestimation of RM1.00 per quarter. This is based on limited available info & few assumption on that time. Now with more info from UOB, it's look likely EPS RM1.00 p.a is also too conservative but yet we can get more clearer picture after Q4 result announced.

I believe most of IB in town is conservative in giving TP especially for Supermax which is good as it give ample time to those who has high conviction on Supermax to buy shares quitely without majority investors realised it's true potential yet.

@vanness_lyh there is nothing wrong for taking trading position. But to master trading, you need to know who are the other sides of the trades. Occasionally I also trade I.e T+2 or T+3 when I spotted an opportunity for both Kossan & Supermax & reinvest the contra gain by buying more shares. Only then can grow capital faster.

Over last 2 weeks, I read comments from both bear team & bull team and my conclusion is both are right.
Bear team is right for short-term direction of Supermax price (drop, correction, pullback etc) but eventually bull team will become a clear winner post Q4 result (July earliest or Aug) as price will revert to the FA (based on improved fundamental)

If based on @freetospeak guestimation at PE 25, EPS p.a = RM0.80

I think @ RM0.80 EPS p.a is still too conservative.

I agreed with @freetospeak, none of analyst dare to give high TP to Supermax until Q4 result announced.

Read again

55% of overall volume with gross profit margin of 700%-800%

Assume retail ASP USD150 (May) ÷ 7 = USD21.4 (OEM ASP)

Read the below

"Unlike Hartalega, Top Glove and Kossan which are predominantly OEMs,Supermax has toiled for years to establish its own brand and distribution channels. The benefits are coming to fruition with the surge in ASPs. It currently commands ASPs of close to US$160-175/’000 pieces vs US$150 in May and US$90 pre-COVID period."

Read line by line

Extract statement by UOB

"Apart from its OBM model, Supermax uniquely distributes its own products as well which makes up close to 55% of overall volume and derives the best margins of up to 700-800% at the gross profit level (based on current prices). Meanwhile, sales through third-party distributors command about 400% margins.
Since the COVID-19 outbreak, Supermax has strived hard to increase its sales exposure through these two channels (to 95% of volume mix from 70% previously) to fully capitalise the disproportionate spike in demand to maximise its earnings. With these established advantages, it allows Supermax to be a far superior beneficiary of elevated ASPs relative to the likes of Top Glove."