solution, biohldg can go above RM5 like dpharma???

87

yeah, every hot counter sure have jokers to make us feel joyful everyday

up down up down first... do wave trading

"Fake" rebound, teasing gooshen, got it?

https://mforum1.cari.com.my/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1204662&mobile=2

15-Jun-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 753,000 shares on 10-Jun-2020.
15-Jun-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 132,900 shares on 10-Jun-2020.
15-Jun-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 27,000,000 shares on 10-Jun-2020.

proved, connect oh ya !!!!

https://www.s5.com.my/page/170/Customers-and-Partners/

RSAWIT vs TDM, who is better, faster?

easily breakout rm14

so comfort sold out huge, must have bought supermax too

VERY NICE AND NEAT forecasting from you, YTH888. TQ

YTH888 Don’t ask TP. Just read.

May 27, 2020 5:56 PM | Report Abuse

This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price = Future PE
6.00 = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.




——————————————————————————————————————————-
More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

Discount
20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.





——————————————————————————————————————————-


Let’s all be logical

We all know the result for quarter ending March 2020

Market Capitalization / Profit March 2020/ Benchmark to Harta
Supermax 8733 Mill/ 71,056 Mil / 61%
Harta 36,762 Mill /115,579 Mil/ 100%
Kossan 11,344 Mil/ 64,903 Mil / 53%
We cannot count top glove because we don’t know the result

Market cap detemines How much the company should be sold for.

Supermax achieve 61% of Harta Earnings in the last quarter
Kossan achieve 53% of Harta Earnings.

Market capitalization for Supermax should be 61% of Harta at 36,762 mil x 61%= 22,424 Mil

Now market cap supermax is 8733 Mil. The variance between supermax market cap now and target market cap is 22,424 Mil- 8733 Mil = 13691 Mil

Let’s calculate to price
The formula to calculate price is market capitalization divided by number of outstanding share.

22,424 Mil / 1360 Mil share= RM16.48

————————————————————————
Overvaluation and hype

Let’s be very safe and conservative and for any under foreseen circumstances, Let’s discount.

Price should be after:
Discount 20% = RM13.19
Discount 30% = RM 11.53
Discount 40% = RM 9.88
Discount 50% = RM 8.24


————————————————————————
Logically earning determines how much the company should be worth.

If I bought a business that makes 200k a year, Valued at RM1 MIL

Let’s say I made the business make 400k, I should sell My business for RM2 mil.

Would you sell a business that made 400k for one mill, you wouldn’t.
—————————-—————————————————-

There’s a big gap with How much harta is worth and supermax is worth.

Almost 4.2 times the value, when supermax achieves 61% of Harta’s earning.

Based on this, either Harta has to be worth 16B or Supermax has to be worth 8B

Or harta worth 36B and supermax worth 16B.

Can Harta drop a bit and Supermax come up and meet in the middle?
28/05/2020 2:01 AM

To joyvest no why .Mr.why...... it is better to be sure than sorry............
23/05/2020 11:01 AM

you are the Mr.WHY here.
How about you share with us here, what's your success story (Which Counter) since you doing thing with 100%/Sure Confident. We all would like to know and invest into the Counter too

joyvest TA is quantitative but where is the qualitative ??
23/05/2020 10:32 AM

Let me ask you, why there are still number of folks here trying to answer you, help you to understand?
Why they do that? Tell us WHY?

joyvest i am not promoting or demoting any counter with on agenda. No one likes to listen to negative news. what i am doing is only create awareness of fear factor ( to you it may not be the fear factor ) . but coin is of two sizes.....head or tail....we just look at the head and ignore the tail?
23/05/2020 10:18 AM

Hi joyvest, counters going up because of people buying and keep pushing.
Using TA could forecast the price movement but still not 100% confidence level. As long as TA wise still good, people still holding.

wonderful achievement, congrats

https://www.facebook.com/TanSoonHinOnline/videos/182339789487622/
start from 59:32 time to watch the show!