Goreng now 0.2 sen

Goreng goreng
Thes Bollinger bands open now

marco从今年1月8号开始，股票交易量，明显增加很多。和之前几年相比，今年的成交量都是比往年来得高，而且高的交易量，一直都是这样，没有停过。这是否意味着公司有重大计划，一个还没有对外公布的计划。知情人士老早就已经买好等着了。

[公司4大部门]
1）手表部门，2013年达到更高的销售,营业额也比2012增加了10%。这部门贡献了70%的revenue.G factory outlet也增加到11个。casio corners也从9个增加到18个。

2）计算机部门,在2013年佔了15%的营业额。由于没有新产品和市场饱和,比2012下跌9%。

3）数码相机部门，拥有year-to-year280%的增长,同时也贡献了7%的营业额。这归功于EX-TR系列,公司会推出加强版功能相机来提高竞争。自拍神器。

4 ) 电子钢琴部门,下滑5%。公司将有一系列的促销来增加顾客对产品的信心。
与此同时,公司将做更好的售后服务。

[除此之外]
marco还有两片土地。
i) 15 acres 在马六甲 ii) 2.5 acres 在Setapak, 吉隆坡。 马六甲地皮大概在 MYR5-6 psf 而 Setapak 土地在 MYR180-200 psf.
15 acres = 653400sf x RM5 = RM 3267000 (地够大，用于发展大型计划，商机无限)
2.5 acres = 108900sf x RM180 = RM19602000

目标价：0.30
买入原因 : 稳定成长+慷慨股息 (2013给0.024)。如果每年有给0.016的股息,也相等于现在买入价的10%股息。即使股价不起,十年后靠拿股息就能翻1倍。2013年财报注明公司拥有4千1百50万的现金。虽然有人称是夕阳行业,但是手表,计算机,相机还是人人都会用,公司也与时并进,推出时尚产品来杀出一条血路,比如自拍神器。如果夕阳行业真的不乐观,大股东持有24%的股要丢的话,也会推高股价来出货。所以,公司好,股价稳健上扬。公司没看头,股价还是会起。

run 0.19 now

run run run 0.185

run 0.185

没有力0.185

up up up now
Will test 0.21 cen

marco从今年1月8号开始，股票交易量，明显增加很多。和之前几年相比，今年的成交量都是比往年来得高，而且高的交易量，一直都是这样，没有停过。这是否意味着公司有重大计划，一个还没有对外公布的计划。知情人士老早就已经买好等着了。

歐內斯特說：「歐巴馬總統已明確表示，不會派出地面部隊介入伊拉克。即便有軍事行動，也會是局部的，且目標明確。」

ISIL奪伊最大基督教城鎮 20萬民逃亡 美將空襲不派地面部隊

ISIL奪伊最大基督教城鎮 20萬民逃亡 美將空襲不派地面部隊

伊拉克遜尼派極端組織「伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國」(ISIL)繼續攻城掠地，昨(7)日奪取位於摩蘇爾附近的全國最大基督教城鎮克拉克斯及周邊地區。據聯合國表示，當地近日有20萬民眾逃離戰火，形容是一場極大的悲劇。美國總統歐巴馬8日發表講話，稱已經授權在伊拉克進行定向空襲，以保護美國人員，但美方不會向伊拉克派出地面部隊。

伊拉克遜尼派極端組織「伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國」(ISIL)繼續攻城掠地，昨(7)日奪取位於摩蘇爾附近的全國最大基督教城鎮克拉克斯及周邊地區。據聯合國表示，當地近日有20萬民眾逃離戰火，形容是一場極大的悲劇。美國總統歐巴馬8日發表講話，稱已經授權在伊拉克進行定向空襲，以保護美國人員，但美方不會向伊拉克派出地面部隊。

Technical BUY
Target Price : RM0.48
Support : RM0.395
Stop-loss: RM0.385

Director sale RM0.65

Technical BUY with +15.2% potential return
Target Price : RM0.380
Support : RM0.310
Stop-loss: RM0.305

Blieve2see,
now can buy in RM 1.15?

1 - 2 month TP: 50% discount to Kajang Land Parcel 1/Sg Buloh @ RM1.50
3 - 6 months TP: 40% discount on RNAV to Kajang Land Parcel 1/Sg Buloh @ RM1.70
6 - 12 months TP: 30% discount on RNAV to Kajang Land Parcel 1/Sg Buloh @ RM1.90

Nevertheless, the stock is still riding on long term uptrend mode. I foresee RM1.24 to be tested soon, testing RM1.61 as more news flow comes. Given that the price has shot up, any small price correction is a chance to accumulate, please plan your entry/exit wisely.
(F) Risk reward ratio
(i) Upside return of 66% - As it is, using my SOP target, with my forecast of Seacera’s FY2015 earnings, it could trade up to RM1.90, not even factoring Warisan Project, electric fence and the remaining 250 acres land in Kajang that Seacera has the rights to develop.
(ii) Downside risk of 18% - 3% below RM1, which is also the entry price of Utusan Mewah Sdn Bhd (Do you think they will want to make a loss here? Certainly, they will be in the money, but question is when?)

R/R ratio: 3.7 times.

Mind you, this TP did not factor in the winning of Warisan Merdeka/ electric fence project! I expect each winning to boost another 20-30 cents to its fair value, and with the development of Kajang Land Parcel 2 coming in, maybe, my potential upside is RM3.

For reference only, as there are too many factors and catalysts that are in play now:
1 - 2 month TP: 50% discount to Kajang Land Parcel 1/Sg Buloh @ RM1.50
3 - 6 months TP: 40% discount on RNAV to Kajang Land Parcel 1/Sg Buloh @ RM1.70
6 - 12 months TP: 30% discount on RNAV to Kajang Land Parcel 1/Sg Buloh @ RM1.90

(G) Rerating factors/ Catalysts
(i) Winning the pre-qualification of Warisan Merdeka Project will boost up more than RM500m orderbook for Seacera and SPAZ, to be announced within Q3 2014.
(ii) Winning the intelligent fence project which might be announced after Budget 2014.
(iii) 250acres of Kajang Land Parcel 1 acquired at RM10/psf. Value it yourself.
(iv) No research house covers this stock yet at the moment.
(v) Tiles division to double capacity in Kamunting Plant next year. Potentially more than 20% cost savings and improvement in margins due to economies of scale.
(vi) RM6b GDV from Kajang Land (Parcel 1 & 2) where Seacera has the first rights of refusal

Cheers. There are too many information to digest for Seacera and I hope you understand Seacera better now. Seacera has an ambitious target to achieve RM1b market cap in 5 years that would certainly mean a price of more than RM5 assuming small dilution ahead. For me, it is too ambitious, but if they were to secure Warisan Merdeka/ Electric fence project, achieving RM1b market cap before the next election maybe, is not a dream. I will update more on Seacera if they happen to win those mega projects.

i) Tiles: In Indonesia, Arwana could trade up to 20x forward P/E due to their position as the lowest cost producer and market leader. In Malaysia, you have peers like White Horse (9.5x P/E), Yi-Lai (14x P/E) and KimHin (40x P/E). Being fair, I am using 10x forward P/E here.
(ii) Property: Using estimated value of the land, and applying a 30% discount against RNAV as usual
(iii) Construction: Peers like Gamuda/ WCT/ Muhibbah/ Eversendai are trading at 10-14x forward earnings. A 10x forward P/E if justified for Seacera.

Without Warisan Merdeka, electric fence project and Kajang Land Parcel 2’s development rights, Seacera has a value of RM1.90. Of course, winning each of the projects would require more funding, thus, I expect a rights issue, with a potential of issuing 50% more shares from its current share capital should Seacera wins both projects and develop Kajang Land Parcel 1&2.

(E) Technical analysis
Seacera is on a short term consolidation mode now. As you can see, its volume has decreased significantly since the last huge rally happened last month. Look at the similarities boxed in red. It just shot up today based on this indicator, but I believe there are more to come.

(i) Revenue
Revenue has been largely contributed by tiles production and packing business, both contributing about 50% of the sales generated last 4 years. However, from the latest Q1 2014 result, RM13.7m only consists of tiles division. Therefore, it is understood that Seacera’s FY2014 revenue will decrease close to 50% without the contribution by SPAZ.

FY 2015 - With the completion on acquisition of SPAZ, MAHB project alone will generate more than RM50m revenue for the year and I am expecting another RM50m jobs win for FY2015. Here, SPAZ will generate about RM100m while tiles division is expected to contribute a minimum of RM70-80m revenue for FY2015. Thus, Seacera’s revenue is set to double or triple for FY2015.

(ii) PAT
PAT on FY2012 and Q1 2014 are one-off, that is why PE multiples might be distorted here. In actual, you have to look at EBIT to have a real glance at their operating profit.

FY2014 - PAT for FY2014 will certainly exceed FY2013, my forecast is about RM30m minimum (RM11.5m one-off gain by OCR Land and RM15m gain from Kayu Ara’s property development gain, the rest would be contributed by tiles as they have change their printing machine to save more cost). In terms of SPAZ, probably RM1-2 m contributions on Q4 2014 as the acquisition have not been finalized.

FY2015 will be an interesting year to watch. Without Warisan Merdeka Project and electric fence, I expect tiles division to contribute at least RM8m to the group as they move into the Kamunting Plant that will double their capacity, improve their cost savings, etc. while SPAZ will generate RM6m, which is only 6% PAT margin against their RM100m revenue for FY2015.

(iii) Dividend
Seacera has been paying 3 cents dividend, which works out to be about 2.9% yield. That is pretty consistent. The dividend will be ex on 9 September 2014.

(iv) Net Gearing or (Debt –Cash)/ Equity
Net gearing has been improving to below 20%. However, the Kajang Land has not been fully paid currently. As the transaction is about RM100m, I assumed half of it has not been paid, and Seacera might raise additional debt to pay, given that they had been planning developments on this piece of Land.

(D) Valuation
Since Seacera has 3 different types of business, Sum-of-parts (SOP) is a better choice to value this company.

(i) Crown Jewel – Kajang Land (500 acres)
Seacera has purchased 250 acres of acres (cost at RM10/psf) so far with an option to purchase the remaining 250 acres in the future. Currently, they are exploring to either have an outright land sale or JV with an established developer on this piece of land. 2 scenarios can happen here:

A.Outright sale would result in an estimated cash inflow about RM275m before paying off their remaining payments, and Seacera will have a net gain of about RM175m based on land price at RM25/psf.
B. If they enter into JV for a mixed development project, which I expect to be RM6b GDV, Seacera could generate more than RM80m net profit per annum.

(ii) Sri Alai, Melaka (37.6 acres)
Seacera has announced to acquire this piece of land for RM32.8m to be satisfied by RM6m cash and the rest by shares. The planned development GDV assumed to be RM250m will consist of resort, hospital and service apartment. I expect this project to kick start end of next year or FY2016.

(B) Shareholders
Zulkarnin Bin Ariffin (CEO) – 24.4%, increase his stake on end of May 2014
Datuk Mansor Bin Masikon – 17.1%
Perbadanan Kemajuan Negeri Perak – 6.2%
Utusan Mewah Sdn Bhd – 6.2%, subscribed through private placement

Utusan Mewah, which is owned by Gan Hai Toh and Mohd Akil Mohd Yusof, took up a placement of 6.24% Seacera shares at RM1. This is a very positive indicator for the stock, where related parties are willing to take up shares at RM1.

Seacera’s stake
Assuming RM1.5b worth of project value, Seacera’s effective interest is 32% (12% through SPAZ) which is about RM500m worth of project value for the next 3 years, which will increase RM125m worth of revenue annually until FY2018.

(iii) Electric fence
The government apparently has lost more than RM5 billion of revenue from illegal smuggling on the Thailand borders. Intelligent Fence is the authorized distributor in Malaysia to market and install the intelligence fence technology derived from South Africa. Successful implementation of the electric fence will also open to much more opportunity in Sabah and Sarawak borders which can add up to 2,000 km.

Seacera’s stake
Assuming a project value of RM1b here, with potentially RM1m contract value per kilometer, at a 50:50 JV basis, the project is expecting to be completed in 3.5 years and Seacera will register revenue worth of RM140m annually for the next 3.5 years, assumed to start from July 2015.
http://www.intelligentfence.com/

(3) Property division
Seacera is not well known for its property projects. Previously, most of their projects are completed on a JV basis, where they will pull in other developers, like OCR Land or Duta Skyline for a profit guarantee, I would expect a margin of more than 10% GDV, where they will just sit back and do nothing. In this type of business model, Seacera would not be worrying about its cash flow to fund its project as it will be funded by its partner.

(ii) Warisan Merdeka
The whole project’s cost is about RM3-5b. According to internal sources, the part that Seacera is bidding together with its partner could range between RM1.5-2.0b. 60% will be shared by foreign partners and 40% will be shared by the local partners, set by PNB.

Ok, there are so many larger players in the lights of IJM, Sunway or WCT which might be bidding for Warisan Merdeka Project as well, what is Seacera’s competitive advantage then? I am pretty confident that Seacera will secure this project due to valid reasoning as follow:

a) Imagine our Prime Minister, on his visit to China on May, had signed multiple agreements to renew friendship between Malaysia and China post the MH370 incident. One of the agreements signed is this particular MOU!! Is Seacera politically-linked? Do take a look at the clients that awarded the projects to SPAZ, then you would know what I mean here.
b) Partnering with Shanghai Construction Group and Sinohydro. The former is one of the high rise building construction expert in China, with track record of completing more than 10 high rise towers in China, and one of them is the tallest building in China, the Shanghai Tower with 121 floors. Sinohydro, has more than 400 international projects with contract value close to USD35b should speak its fame itself. Even some of our MRT bored piles works are done by Sinohydro. It has also built a number of high rise in China, Africa and Abu Dhabi.
c) As you would know, China leads all the countries in the world in terms of cost competitiveness. The rivals from Japan/Korea would not be able to compete with China in terms of cost.
d) Seacera’s JV has the complete package. They can even provide tiles for the buildings! 118-storeys with more than 10,000 sqm for each floor, work out yourself how much tiles can Seacera sells! That is close to their current annual production volume.

Seacera - Too many catalysts await?
I have to tell you that, I have actually completed 90% of my research yesterday. Seeing the price goes up a lot today, I do not have the answer why, probably you can get some answer here. Please read my disclaimer again on my blog.

Key recent events
(i) On December last year, Seacera sold its packaging business Seacera Polyfilms to Scientex Bhd for RM40m. Thus, Seacera, now will focus in Tiles/ Construction and Property divisions.
(ii) On January 2014, Seacera acquire SPAZ Sdn Bhd, a construction company for RM3m. This deal is pending completion within 2 months.
(iii) On June 2014, Seacera signed a MOU to jointly construct Menara Warisan Merdeka (118-storeys) with Sinohydro Corporation Ltd, Shanghai Construction Group and SPAZ.
(iv) On June 2014, Seacera entered into a MOU with Intelligent Fence (M) Sdn Bhd to participate in the tender to build, operate and transfer an electric security fence along the national border of Malaysia and Thailand which is approximately 506 kilometres.

We will talk about each event in more detail below.
TP: RM1.90
Current price: RM1.14
Market cap: RM191m
Upside: 66%

(A) Company Background
-Seacera was listed in Bursa on 1999, with its core business focusing on tiles manufacturing
-Today, Seacera has 3 different divisions:

(1) Tiles division
-Seacera is the only bumiputra of homogenous tile manufacturing company in Malaysia. Currently, their production capacity is 2million sqm per year.
-The company will shift to the new Kamunting Plant on 3Q2015 and its capacity will double to 4million sqm per year. With the new machineries, Seacera would be able to reduce reliance on human capital and this would result in more cost savings and economies of scale. AEON, Mydin, Maybank, University Malaya and Petronas Stations are clients of Seacera for it business segment.
-You think that 4million is the max that they can do? That is just only phase 1, with phase 2 and 3, capacity will quadruple to 8million sqm per year!

(2) Construction division
(i) SPAZ
Seacera has announced to invest RM3m in exchange of 60% new shares in SPAZ. SPAZ has a backlog of more than RM180m currently, mostly contributed by the job awarded by Malaysia Airports to design and construct its Academy. You could refer to the chart below, where I have generated potential revenue for FY2014 and FY2015. Assume also annual winning of RM50m worth of construction jobs, where I believe Seacera are tendering other construction jobs besides the Warisan Merdeka and electric fence project.

东南亚集团有限公司（SEACERA，7073，工业产品组）宣布，派发3仙的末期免税股息。
股息除权日期在2014年9月9日，而截止过户日期是2014年9月11日，至于支付日期则在2014年9月26日。

吉隆坡9日讯）东南亚瓷砖（SEACera，7073，工业产品组）宣布与两家中国公司以及一家本地土著公司进行合作，以联手竞标与数十亿计独立大厦（Warisan Merdeka）项目有关的工程，采购和建筑工程。
东南亚瓷砖向交易所报备的文告中称，该公司与中国水利机构（Sinohydro Corporation Ltd）有限公司，上海建工集团（Shanghai Construction Group Co Ltd）有限公司以及SPAZ私人有限公司签署谅解备忘录，以便设立一家联营公司来参与独立大厦“融资与工程，采购以及建筑”计划的竞标活动。
文告中透露，一旦成功赢获上述合约，将以SCG-Sinohydro-SEACera-SPAZ JV联营公司的名义执行相关工程。文告中也显示，这些公司在相关资产、负债，和盈利与亏损方面的权益百分比为上海建工集团/中国水利机构 60%，东南亚瓷砖/SPAZ 40%。
涉足制造、建筑，建筑材料供应以及产业发展领域的东南亚瓷砖提到，上述联营计划是配合首相拿督斯里纳吉的6天访问，在上月30日至31日间于北京召开多次会议后得出的结论。
文告中表示，中国水利机构涉足发电、基础建设、水务工程和建筑等业务。该公司在世界各地的70多个国家拥有400个项目，合约总价值达350亿美元（1千127亿令吉）。
至于上海建工集团方面则握有大约682亿6千万人民币（350亿令吉）的资产，而其年营业额则超过828亿6千万人民币（425亿令吉）。

东南亚磁砖（SEACERA，7073，主板工业股）宣布，与中国Sinohydro企业有限公司、上海建筑集团及SPAZ私人有限公司达成谅解备忘录（MOU），成立联营公司，以竞投独立遗產大厦（WarisanMerdeka)项目。

在首相纳吉访问中国期间，该公司达成此项谅解备忘录。

至於联营公司的股权比重则为，Sinohydro及上海建筑集团持有60%股权，而东南亚磁砖及SPAZ则持有其余的40%。

close 0.375 today

all chicken counter go go

WB will special

Will test RM0.45 today

LME aluminium prices broke the USD2,000/tonne mark last week. While prices have consolidated, the present level and record premiums are set to benefit Press Metal’s smelters. We prudently revise upwards our all-in FY14/FY15 aluminium price estimates to USD2,200/USD2,400respectively despite the belief that there is more upside coming. Reiterate BUY, with a higher MYR7.38 FV (from MYR5.47), a 20% discount to its fully-diluted DCF.

Aluminium prices looking up. Global aluminium producers have done well to curtail output. Coupled with the absence of new smelting capacity outside China (beyond the few being ramped-up now) and moderate demand growth, the market is generally expecting its first supply deficitin a decade from 2014. This favourable development has lifted the sector’s fundamentals and seen the London Metal Exchange (LME)’saluminium cash price breaking the USD2,000/tonne psychological barrierlast week. Additionally, the regional premium payable for metal deliveries to Japan for July-September also rose to a record USD400-408/tonne, ie 8-12% over the preceding quarter.

All geared for brighter days ahead. Press Metal is set to enjoy the fruit of years of aggressive investments in its world-class low cost aluminium smelters in Samalaju and Mukah. The improved industry dynamics are timely, as both of its smelters have been fully operational since April. The higher aluminium prices should also mean extra dollars for every tonne of metal produced. Although we believe the supply deficit may offer further upside to all-in aluminium prices from the present level, we prefer to be prudent and revise up our FY14/FY15 assumptions by USD100/USD200/tonne to USD2,200/USD2,400/tonne respectively.

Reiterate BUY, with MYR7.38 FV (from MYR5.47). Press Metal’s track record prompted us to raise our value-added production estimate for the Samalaju smelter to up to 40% of total production by FY18. That, on top of our assumption of higher aluminium prices, led us to raise our estimates by 22.4%/35.5% for FY14/FY15. We also ascribe a nominal terminal value on it at MYR425m vs nil previously. Our fully-diluted DCFbased FV rises to MYR7.38 (20% discount to our DCF), implying undemanding 15.0x/10.5x P/Es and 2.1x/1.8x P/BVs on its FY14F/FY15F respectively. We believe its verbal commitment of a 30%-50% dividend payout ratio may support a further re-rating. BUY.

Underestimate
低估公司(7174)

Lucky,
good counter
today up is market aluminum price up
the aluminum price will continue up

this is a good counter
tp RM7.50

Buy TP RM7.5
aluminum price rise us 2200

should be no any good new
but hari raya many use chicken take profit

Good Counter The NTA RM1.40
Hari Raya chicken many profit.

huat....ah......
UP UP UP
BUY BUY BUY

good uptrend strong buy
will ovre 0.4 sen today

this counter few day will go RM0.54

mrt will run

Brahmal again buy
today will go 0.9 sen

big buyer

buy buy buy
new project will come

-2013 EPS 是 3.08 sen , 如果它盈利也成长10%， 2014 EPS agak agak 是 3.4 sen

根据虫大的计算比较可能的情形
Assume (Q2 + Q4)EPS = 1.06sen | FY2014 EPS = 3.5sen => PE = 25sen/3.5sen = 7.14
> If PE=18, Share price = 63sen
> If PE=15, Share price = 52.5sen 《===
> If PE=10, Share price = 35sen