Saudi has a group of financiers, economists to manipulate oil price...but eventually oil price need to go down to 20+ usd, you will see it in one more quarter time.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3966342-oil-big-long-going-going-yet-gone

Just some conspiracy theory, read it if you feel interested.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3966342-oil-big-long-going-going-yet-gone

Some conspiracy theory on oil position secretly undertaken by cartel inside opec cartel to flood the market with oil and pull oil price down to 20 usd per barrel.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3966342-oil-big-long-going-going-yet-gone

Just some conspiracy theory, read it if you feel interested. It even hypothesised superbackwardation (oil spot price is far higher than oil future price) may likely be happen. I dont know....but this kind of possibility cant rule out yet, the condition is right and suitable for this kind of black swan event to happen.

My get in price is upper rm4+, still no feeling yet. Be patient, my view on oil remain the same, it will go down to the worst case scenario of 20usd per barrel, chance of it fluctuate btw 25 to 35 usd per barrel will be normal. Why? There are still a big question mark that none of the analysts in the world know, that is the real oil producers financial position on oil, esp saudi arabia. Rmb, they can make money not only by selling oil, it is hard for anyone to believe they do not tap anything into the financial instruments. Later oil tankers that store oil and float on sea will start to unloaded massively and oil contango that we are facing now will gone quickly. Recent price movement more like oil cartel manipulation rather than actual genuine market force or US manipulation. Be prepare.

Next is to wait saudi russia iran iraq libya increase production, stay tune.

Where is mr big picture buywithconviction? His big picture change liao ma?

Great you know these kind of things need intelligent ppl. Let me explaon why im so focus on 17th apr and the outcome...you do not have the right knowledge, so you diy for bull LP for me to cut and cook soup.

Malaysia economy 30% relying on oil, wwhen no deal was announced, it will impact ringgit and thus overall malaysia economy will turn back into bears.

Your l@mp@h biggest you know, what soup u like to drink?

Next meeting is on june, non opec attendance are unknown, any deal will bring forward are unknown. This somehow give market confidence about something will achieve next meeting.

Anyway, we are getting this meeting result right, worse outcome indeed. Oh ya, saudi prince say saudi able to produce a million more instantly, really a good news about saudi still not reach their full capacity.

Back in those day doctors are big earner. Young young ady drive porsche, either use his lao peh money or invest earn abit then squander away...which not a good thing to learn from him about investment.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/saudi-prince-reiterates-oil-freeze-depends-on-others-joining-in2c81r3
Saudi doesnt really care about low oil price, iran not in, no story then. N iran let kaki tangan to talk on the meeting. Lets hope the worst, ringgit drop badly....let the evil prevail!!!! Join the dark force!

Maybank analyst dont know much about oil nor the whole oil market dynamic. Much like genting bhd taurx investment, none of the stock market analyst in malaysia know anything about pharmaceutical industry. They are too professional and focused on their expertise to be sny useful for this dynamic world.

Simple logic but many ppl difficult to apply. A lot uncle auntie buy bcoz everyone started to make noice on the stock. If no ppl give them confidwnt, they not dare buy one. N when they see the stock price not moving or drop abit, lagi takut. N they are always the fat cow for us to offload our holding.

Some market psychology in play: market already think a solid freeze outcome will be in place after the meeting, so 40usd reflect that optimism already. If really come out as expectation, market will not have momentum strong enough to revive the price to above 50 usd for us shale to stay alive. However if only soso outcome, oil price will back to higher end 30 usd. Of course bad outcome is what we want, lower 30 usd is a boast for topglov.

Jplin lai chi pet: the outcome need to be beyond expectation in order for oil price to rise further. Now if outcome in accordance with plan, oil price may fall back to 40 usd as the market already factor in the good outcome and investors buy on rumour sell on news.

Pjflower: current market sentiment so strong now until they all think the outcome will be positive. If bad outcome freefall, soso outcome, fall a bit as the price already factor in the good news. Only superb production cut will result in strong price movement, something still unlikely now it seems. Everyone, lets hope the worse.

Lets hope no freeze coming out, everything freefall back. Now it seem chances quite slim.

Stockmanmy: People think they do not need touch screen apple phone when they already got rugged nokia phone. Same thing, malaysian do not think they need hsr when they all own cars. Time will prove you wrong, most of the time people do not know what they want, you are one of them.

Kim teng park owners grip it tight. As for mrt station, my hint will be those vacant land in jb, like the piece in southkey or the one near menara pelangi.

So you had already put down your bet on iskandar ppty, using part of your 95% portfolio?? Tell us which taman u already got ur asset in? Your ppty location is much more valuable information as you really show your confident on those area. Better than listen your shares portfolio tips when ur interest only 5 %

Calvintaneng: BUY AS NEAR TO SPORE - JB MRT TRAIN STATION & HSR STATION IN GERBANG NUSAJAYA

Comment like that not helpful, no one know where the exact location are. MRT station, willing to share which taman more likely to be benefited? HSR station at gerbang nusajaya? Buy Leisure farm/east ledang.. or nearby vacant land? Vacant land mostly kena sapu by big corp liao lor...mulpha and uem big landowner there. Even tj kupang land calling RM 30-40 psf also hard to get, last time mostly malay owners, now all chinese hoarding. Like the one i get 2 yrs ago from a malay owner's still RM 18 psf, paper profit double liao still not consider selling, and this type of psf land price on no people land really buying on future hope.

No_luck, u really no luck? U buy at rm 5.15, should we sell then? I will wait until Doha meeting result come out first baru decide. Lets hope the worse.

Betting on weather is risky, siao siao no el nino la nina, everyday rain also possible.

Mp corp now still recommend to buy?

Lose will not lost much, gain on potential worse malaysia economy.

Foxyz: hard to say, depend on the meeting outcome, but even the outcome is good, oil not going to be over 50 usd. Strong support over rm5 over the past weeks make it attractive to enter even at this price.

Buywithconviction: it is funny to see your stance from "big picture against" to "big picture unclear". Your big picture also say change then change de right lol. Investing sometime need to take some risk, if you think is right, just do it. Like you want to wait until thing confirm liao baru comment already late lor. See, when you said the big picture is bad for this counter, price hardly move down anymore coz what you know others also not stupid, already priced in. Unless you expect the future is even brighter beyond others expectation, and it will catch other by wow factor, then this counter will do even bad.

By the time you say this counter is a buy, let me know, bcoz that time will means for others is a sell time, as you will confirm that everyone already knew it.

Likely situation maybe: beginning of the year, producer maybe issuing equivalent usd value of thai baht, peso or ringgit denomianted invoice. When buyers from those countries start their payment, dollar value already gone up and yet they still paying the same amount of each local currency, this will result in forex loss.
Trick on whether those company able to benefit from dollar strength has more to do on whether they use derivative to lock in high dollar value. As for topglov, beside hedging on their accounting, they also involve in foreign exchange forward contract. However their annual report do not point out the time length of those contract or the forward price for those contract....but if ringgit start strengthening, the impact may not be that huge as the usd myr future value already locked in.

It really surprise me when you claim that those expert trying to collude and cheat ordinary people, either you are too smart to be true or people are too dumb until no one realise the trick. But drill deeper into what forex loss means, maybe it explain everything: Imagine that you issue an invoice in a foreign currency, and you haven't yet been paid. Your Gain/Loss on Foreign Currency Exchange report would show the gain/loss as unrealized. Once the invoice is paid, the gain/loss (calculated on the date of payment) moves to the Realized column.

Remember, these gains and losses only occur if the exchange rate on the day of payment is different from the exchange rate on the day the invoice was written. If invoice and payment occur on the same day, or even if they happen on different days that happen to have the exact same exchange rate (very unlikely), then there are no foreign exchange gains or losses to worry about.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/DannyTanSiongKee/94225.jsp
Top Glove (Note 25):

Forex loss of (RM11.332million) for the year ended 29 February 2016

现在低迷了,可以买了

Ringgit can up to 3.7-3.8 as far as local media not preaching the worry that im telling now. But ultimate revelation day will.be on 17th apr. Until then, i will not admit im wrong.

Ohhhh.political issue as well. If everything goes well, ringgit can weaken again back to rm4 level. Im not permabear but i dun think the real sustainable bull has come back to malaysia yet. Hope im right (i can have great reasoning but right or wrong still up to market to decide))

So your big picture is a very vague image that you dont even really know what is it? N keep telling ppl focus on big picture that you think is negative for glove counter but you dont know what thing you are negative at beside....really feeling negative and market ady shown for weeks it is negative. Question is, you invest, using past experience is very risky to predict future, you dont know the impact of one news or how long it going to impact, all you know is after the news hit, market responded, baru say positive or negative n by the time u said, market change again.and when market responded baru say your outlook, price ady factor in and not moving much.

Back to my point, oil price is one factor, if deal is on, then ringgit got force to up n this counter may not be good. Other worth looking at including oil inventory, fed policy, china data etc etc. All link up one another. To give everyone a clue how big the impact is, after the prince put out the verbal condition, oil price drop 4% in a day. Certain is big impact compare to US oil rig data or supply demand data that nowadays hardly move more than 2%.

As i expect everyone looking wrongly, foreign fund come and goes. Buywithconviction: what other moving parts you are looking at? Please shed some light.

Nusa damai officially open? When? In current market condition? Even 5 yrs time im not seeing it going to be happen.

Will come back and comment after ringgit drop back to rm4/$ for several weeks, keep eye on big picture

Actually big picture have not changed, US starting their probe on 1mdb, oil no cut or even freeze to be seen. So short term big picture everyone bullish on ringgit on unfounded ground of higher oil price or better economy situation when thing are getting even worse. Saying ringgit will go strong is actually based their opinion on others investors wrong sentiment.

Oil falls as Saudi Arabia sets conditions for accord
http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/oil-falls-assaudi-arabiasets-conditions-for-accord-390723.html
Come on everyone, let back to glove, freezing on oil production looks unlikely now.

Goldentriangle: this is exactly what im thinking. Macro factor change so fast until big picture also change fast fast. Hope everyone is wrong and im correct.

How come my bigger pic no one talking about? Ringgit cannot continuely gaining strength without the support of oil price. Bigger picture for oil remain gloomy, and coming opec meeting will directly impact ringgit strength. Talking today about 3.7888888 or 3.88888888 per dollar, so called big picture by buywith conviction, is meaningless, it is just meaningless fluctuation, today you r right tml wrong again. Just wait after the meeting baru jump boat also not late. The big picture is the meeting, that's all.

Biywithconviction: big picture is like this, oil drop, rm drop, export counter up, vice versa. If coming meeting no deal or freeze at all time high level, this counter up. If production cut or freeze at low level, this counter drop. Big picture is everyone bullish on oil, either they are all correct or all wrong.

Oil price anytime go back to lower to mid thirty dollar level, may even lower if no deal striked in april meeting. Seem like a fake bull for klse. Let hope no deal n oil price drop gao gao, export counters back on theme again.

What we are argue is whether the bull will still on, looking past is not indicative in anyway. Oil price not going over 50usd anytime soon, inventory is huge enough to stay low for quite sometime, no need rush.

So bright like you think the bull run is genuine? Lol, you dont even know what happen in the market nor understand the risk involved. Market has see it wrongly. Market rushing bullish is the trend now. I will wait those bull lamp@h all kena potong baru go in n collect. Leno is the biggest, i will be the first to collect n throw far far away..... Errrr... Abit wasted, i will cook soup for leno to drink.

Only in your holland world the bubble had burst. Hardly any medium or big size shale company go bust. The closer next victim would be chesapeake energy, and more to come. Is about time liao, there are no longer any high oil price hedge to protect them anymore, bad loan is next thing to come.

Why you think 2 yrs ago had busted? Because oil price drop they all mati liao? Too young too simple.

Nah.... PRC chinese is in control economically, already.

I follow, but the reasoning is weak as fuk, 17th may be the date you get wrong badly, 天机不可泄露

Ohhh by the way, im willing to listen calvin good reasoning with all the wrong outcome then listen to your good guessing with all the right outcome.

Current market not totally de-risk, teach you a new word where you will be learning from media in coming months: shale bubble.

Let me guess your reasoning, you saw market ady turn bull for weeks, then is the right time to go in? Too simple to call an expert.

Leno: why u so bullish? Will it be too early to say so? What is your view on 17th april meeting? So sure outcone will be positive?

Do topglov have any forward foreign exchange contract? Topglov cant lock in future 1 year or two earning at >rm4 /usd meh? or the management team are financially illiterate play on the spot market nia?

Im highly educated ah beng, you see those man in black type loan shark is me.... What to do, nowadays loan shark industry so competitive, if you dun wear nice nice ppl dun want to borrow money from u.