Nobody is hoping for PE100. Assuming June 30 was the peak for super profit and maintain 1 billion profit. That would be around EPS150 for the FY2021. Assuming that the ASP will drop from now on (as per what estimated by the market and IB back in last year before they heard of Delta, Lambda, Vaccination losing its effect after 6 months, booster shots required, world population is still under vaccinated even after 9 months), let's said the profit down back to 30% of the peak in 2023 (70% lower), that would be around EPS45. With PE15-20 which was the NORM, I repeat the NORM prior to Covid 19, Supermax should value at RM6.75 - RM9.00. Assuming in 2024, down another 30% of profit, the EPS would be 31.5. WIth PE15-20, Supermax should value at RM4.72 - RM6.30. Come 2025, another 30% drop of profit, Supermax would value at RM3.3 - RM4.41. That is 2025 for gosh sake! This only materialize if ASP dropped drastically in 2022 and 2023 (losing a total of 70%) and subsequently ASP losing 30% each year in 2024 and 2025.

All these didnt even factor in the volume increase, cash on hands, the automation investment, new biz venture (with 4-5 billions on hands, you can do wonder). The market is now valuing the counter purely on profit decline, not on the actual growth. The market is valuing the counter based on profit 1 billion per quarter and how much decline it gonna be in 2023 in comparison with 1 billion. If i made rm100mil per quarter in 2025, i gonna make rm400 mil in 2025. I still make money for gosh sake. Not that I make 90% loss as they compute it as 400mil/4 bil = 10%.

cant believe some still bashing this counter since last year. Spending almost 12 months just to bash the counter. Can you gain anything by bashing it? The resentment and grudge must be damn high. Must have entered above rm22 during the peak and cut loss when at rm18 before Supermax split. Just a 4k loss already have the resentment to bash for a year. If 40k loss, gonna bash for whole life.

Historically they would declare dividend in Sept.

This counter has been trading side way for almost 2.5 month around 0.5. Just be patient and enjoy the dividend in Sept.

If this happens, 50% of Malaysian would be gone. Who gonna care about recovery? There wont be recovery and Bursa too will close shop. End of the world is here.

Be Very, Very Careful what you wish....Lamb'Da coming ( vaccine resistance )
ALL bangla in SuperMax will be dead...who is going to operate machinery??
3 months SuperMax will declare Bankrupt and you got All the Toilet paper you want
20/08/2021 4:52 PM

One more week to go and the Q1 results would be out. Why the delay for this quarter? 1 side is telling that it's a poorer results, hence the delayed. Another side is telling that the company is waiting for other good news before releasing the QR together, hence the delayed. The market expectation is around rm800 mil profit.

QR result would set the tune on whether if there is a drastic drop on ASP, selling lower amount of gloves, eating into Top Glove market in NA, and also the profit margin. Supermax yet to declare higher dividends.

JPM macais now busy with counters that relate to Ismail Sabri, Zahid, Najib, Shafie Apdal or Anwar. Counters related to Moodin all mampus

For other country yes. Not for Malaysia as the foreign investment have left mostly. Hence, the market is steady today in bursa. The market was first affected in 2018 when BN lost. Next it was impacted again in 2020 when Covid 19 striked. That s not much foreign investment remaining in Bursa.

Market already used to such political instability. Biz goes on. Just that gloves were targeted and hence dropped. Other counters steady only.

Good opportunity to collect Harta.

Steady. the market didnt drop. If you noticed most counters in bursa are still in good shape. Just gloves were being targeted and hence taking the advantage to depress it further to scare retailers out. The volume is so low and not much transaction.

crash because of Malaysia politic. What worst can we get? Retailers sometime just reacting directionless. With the current government, are we at any better? It s better to have some break from those clowns up there. Let the government machineries to do their jobs without those political interference.

RM800 mil profit is within expectation. anything below is under expectation and the IBs would bash supermax kaw kaw.

merck QR shld be minimum 700m. Make up PAT 3.5B for this year.
13/08/2021 5:08 PM

How long more can the shorties depress glove counters whereby the profit did not decrease 30%-50% but cont to maintain and some even delivered higher profit such as Kossan and Harta? Covid 19 aren't being contained or managed even when they been drumming on this back in October 2020. 10 months down the road, and the world is still in lock down, Europe is bracing for wave 4.0, vaccine is showing its decreased efficacy after 6 months and require booster, only 30% of world population has at least receive a single dose and mostly from the devloped countries after 8 months of vaccination drive. Are we looking at another 12-16 months to vaccinate the whole world provided we dont go for booster? If we go for booster, then that will be additional 12-16 months to vaccinate the whole world provided the vaccine is still efficient against the variant and the richer countries helping the poorer countries.

Tomorrow ex date and would adjust back to 3.21.

shortist is betting that the QR would be lower than 800 millions.

Even Apple also have violated forced labor in India and China until the workers commit suicide and Indian worker protested and start fire. Apple still selling like hot cakes in US and listed in US exchange.

Can you give me the link that JPM is TP 2.80 for Top Glove?
I cant find such TP by JPM.

Boston @adcool last I check still 52 weeks low so maybe those who cut losses at rm3.70 might wanna buy cheaper later. If price go down to JPM got got tp at rm2.80, maybe those who sold today might be not silly after all.

Kossan is being blocked by big players. They are blocking with 50-100 biji every time per seller.

Genetec only have 50 millions shares. Easy to manipulate and control by the big shareholders. Everyday only 15-20 transaction playing with it. Could be from just 3-5 operators buying and selling among themselves.

it a good article.
what action does bursa take ? Nothing... therefore stock like Genetec can be RM25 . It does not make sense if just compare them with any glove stock

Shorties covering again from 3.70. Retailers are silly and let shorties run away again by buying cheap at 52 weeks low.

US wants TG to either supply them gloves as a contractual and guaranteed volumes and pricing or want to force TG to start operation in America. Alternatively, to offer shares to US companies to be major shareholders. That s what they want. They did not do the same to Harta, Supermax and Kossan but just targeted Top Glove though all of them have the similar allegation of forced labor.

Fong Chin-bok covid cases and mco can no longer push up glove prices, we need the CBP Unban but US just continue dragging us without any reason. Now we truly have no clue what else CBP wants to unban TG

Gloves are like gem now being thrown out to the road side and nobody picking them up cause IB kept manipulating that it isnt gem but just a valueless rock. Still gullible retailers cant see it and treat it as a rock. It's not because the gem isnt shinning and sparkle but the dirt and dust on their eyes to see them clearly. Believe it or not, the IBs were the one dusting up their eyes and kicks up the dirt to their faces so IBs can go and pick these so called rocks and enjoy their cunning "seize" later when the dust settled.

Keep to your gem and pick them up too from time to time cause there are still ppl throwing them out like a rock.

Gloves are like gem now being thrown out to the road side and nobody picking them up cause IB kept manipulating that it isnt gem but just a valueless rock. Still gullible retailers cant see it and treat it as a rock. It's not because the gem isnt shinning and sparkle but the dirt and dust on their eyes to see them clearly. Believe it or not, the IBs were the one dusting up their eyes and kicks up the dirt to their faces so IBs can go and pick these so called rocks and enjoy their cunning "seize" later when the dust settled.

Analyst missing ASP for whooping 53% and yet maintaining the TP. This is a good article to digest for you to know how rigged the Bursa is.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/08/07/comfort-in-consensus-or-victim-of-it

Recently, Hartalega Holdings Bhd’s earnings report for the first quarter (Q1) of financial year 2022 (FY22) exceeded all analysts’ consensus by a huge mile. An institution-centric foreign bank which gave Hartalega a target price of RM5 prior to the results being announced, admitted that he underestimated Hartalega’s average selling price (ASP) by a whopping 53%. Later, the analyst increased his earnings’ forecast for FY22 by a huge 65% in his report. However, he maintained the lower target price of Hartalega despite being completely wrong in the first place. His justification of his flawed analysis was stated in the headlines of the report “The future matters more than the past.” When earnings beat your forecast, you cannot then upgrade future earnings forecast but maintain the same target price. It defies common sense. This is precisely why retail investors at times feel frustrated and suspect the stock market is rigged against them.

Too focus on Europe and US. Nobody realized Japan is facing an outbreak and hitting daily record since last year. Japan is a country with huge population as well and will spend on PPE to manage the pandemic.

https://youtu.be/xoLDBh_IXBU?t=196

The ASP drop is just an excuse to justify their game and cause panic, losing hope and confidence in gloves. That s how to push the price down for them to collect. Thing is they have been playing this for so many months and yet still pushing down. How low more can they push down? They know their games are numbered soon when gloves start to release results and they do not reflect a sharp drop of ASP but stable ASP or could even uptrend ASP in 2nd half of 2021. Kossan and Harta had proven that. But they are using the reason that Kossan and Harta did not raise their ASP fast enough in comparison with Supermax and Top Glove. We just need to wait for Supermax to report at least RM1 billion profit which exceeded the expectation and story board of ASP drop. On the other hand, agree with FCB that they too waiting to harvest their gains in Tech which they have been frying for more than 6 months.


Fong Chin-bok shorties are pushing harder and harder to collect back the tickets from retailers with the cheap price, it has nothing to do with so called ASP drop. once they have collected enough tickets to claim the victory then they sing different song to push up the price. however by then they will change tone on tech stocks and repeat what they had been done on gloves to tech

Stats now is: 1 big player vs 16 small players.

1 big seller versus 15 small buyers. How to compete if the big players team up and wont allow glove to uptrend for now?

big players blocking leh. Just see the Q. 11 sellers q to sell 442 biji at 3.13 and 4 seller q to sell 200 biji at 3.14. Meanwhile 100 buyers only can buy 325 biji at 3.13. The big players are blocking in big batches of RM120k - RM160K value. Buyer only can buy averagely around RM10k per batch

not about politic or covid. Just see the Q. the big players are blocking. 16 sellers selling at 3.69 for almost 535 biji while 207 buyers only can buy 427 biji at 3.68. There are also 17 sellers blocking at 3.7 for 272 biji and another 11 sellers blocking at 3.71 for 631 biji. These are big players selling at RM50k-RM200k batches.

That was what happened 15-20 years ago when the industry consolidated.


tailangong Top 4 can easily buy them up. If those companies have value la haha

=============


Mini2021 I heard many small glove makers and new player going to bankrupt.....they can offer cheaper price and huge volume
06/08/2021 1:33 PM

Current shorties emotion now were like those who chased gloves back in last year July/August. Keep believing higher and higher price and the IBs kept giving new higher TP. Now the shorties kept believing lower and lower price and the IBs kept giving new lower TP. We all know what happened next after that.

shorties been covering back and bought cheap from silly retailers who sold to them cheaply.

The analyst even mentioned that pre_covid 19 time, gloves traded at PE 5. I am like what? That is a total lie. Gloves counters were trading at PE 15-25.


ToneeFa @pjseow If you read the Title of the article " Glove stocks on the last leg of their rally " by Ahmad Naqib , you can feel how ignorant and stupxxd the writer was.
Was there a rally for glove stocks in the last 10 months ?
On the contrary , glove stocks have been.dropping.since OCT 2020. His article was 10 months late?
The title should be changed to " GLOVE STOCKS ON THE LAST LEG OF CORRECTION" to reflect the actual situation.
04/08/2021 12:49 PM

Yup pjseow, couldn't agree more with you. This guy is talking base on the shortists' narrative. These ppl have to write to justify why despite the incredible unbelievable record profit and fantastic dividend every quarter, the prices have dropped more than 70% off the peak. Nobody talks about short sellers and extreme market manipulation behind the scene. Of course many are on their payroll to peddle lies and half truth.

Gloves counters valuation are totally against the fundamental and chart. The industry was being value based on in unpopularity all thanks to lower ASP, vaccination, higher supplies, etc. This has happened for almost 10 months now. Short term unpopularity. But the previous two quarters cont to deliver record breaking results for most glove counter. Even for some like TG which deliver poorer results, the single quarter results alone beat the whole 2019 total profits hands down..yet the valuation for most gloves are now back to pre COVID-19 time due to unpopularity. Let me quote Benjamin Graham as follow

In the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company.

The short term is done and the weighing machine will take over soon.

The rebound gonna be explosive this round. The operators and market makers have overdone it for the last 10 months.

This is what the operators aim for. the more negative perception among the retailers, that would signal it s almost done. For those who still hold from Nov 2020 until now and start to give up, that s the bottom out.

silly retailers selling cheap for shorties to cover. Everyday, shorties cover at 450PM

Agreed. Retailer is no match to IBs and operators.


Stealth shorties have no opposing force,worse still being abetted by ibs and our very own pension funds
03/08/2021 3:46 PM

Silly retailers selling cheap to shorties to cover position.

They are deceiving the newbies for their own agenda. But i never expect them to go until that extent of cheating by bluntly citing PE 5 as pre covid times. I know they always try to justify their TP with whatever calculation they derived from such as even predicting what going to happen in 2023. That's the first time I ever encountered that Analyst give TP based on 3 years time in advance. Never in my trading for the past 15 years have encountered such TP duration.


Amazonboy Analyst reporting all can throw in dustbin...dunno how they pass CFA exam...Lol

Beyond 2022, the valuations for these stocks look vastly different. Top Glove is projected to post RM3.73 billion in net profit for its FY22, a 58% y-o-y drop from the forecast earnings for the preceding year.

This translates into an estimated earnings per share (EPS) of 44 sen for its FY22, versus the EPS of RM1.09 for FY21, based on projections. At the closing price of RM3.92, Top Glove shares are trading at a price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of 8.9 times. Pre-Covid-19 pandemic, glove stocks were trading at a P/E ratio of less than five times.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/are-glove-stocks-last-leg-rally

I just want to highlight that PE5 pre Covid 19 is totally inaccurate reporting. With this kind of writing, the IB and operators are so desperate in "attacking" the gloves and fool those new investors. For those who have been investing in gloves, the big 4 were trading at PE around 15-22. With this, we know how the price has been manipulated for their own collection.

This counter would surprise you when it moves. You wont be able to catch it at all. Just be patient and enjoy the dividend for now. Should announce the special dividend in Sept

Usually when transferring to Main Board, the shares based would be increased more. Existing shareholders should be given bonus shares, etc. In addition, the governance and BOD is more stringent and hence there should be more new independent directors appointed which would boost more confidence in the market.

Not related to RSS but fast money vs retailers.

previous years only would announce dividend in September

Just wiat for QR and see lah if ASP is really down, if really lot of new entries, if really Supermax biz is no longer viable, etc. Just need to wait another 2 weeks.

EPF must be trading gloves counters to earn some profits for I-Citra withdrawal.