CWG Markets Daily Analysis at 24th June 2020
Data and news released yesterday:

The coronavirus pneumonia confirmed that the number of confirmed cases exceeded 9 million 180 thousand cases in June 24th, and the death rate exceeded 470 thousand cases as of June 24th 06:52. There are more than 2.34 million confirmed cases in the United States.

Due to the easing of trade tensions and the faster than expected rebound of corporate activity according to PMI data, US stocks closed slightly higher, the NASDAQ set a new record, and the US dollar fell for the second day in a row.

The PMI data shows that the historic recession caused by the new coronavirus eased in June due to the reopening of the business several weeks after the closure.

U.S. Treasury Secretary: Congress may pass a new round of stimulus next month, which is expected to get out of recession this year.

Federal Reserve Brad: does not think it is necessary to take yield curve control measures.

API report: US crude oil inventory increased by 1.7 million barrels to 545 million barrels last week.



Market Volatility:

The US index fell 0.37% to near 96.68, hitting a more than one week low; the index rose 0.3% in Asian trading session under the influence of a speech by white house trade adviser Navarro.

The euro rose 0.42% to near 1.1308, hitting an intraday high of around 1.1349 since June 16; data shows that the economic rebound of the euro area is in progress.

The pound rose 0.4% to near 1.2522, close to intraday highs, with similar signs of recovery in the UK economy. Manufacturing PMI in the UK recorded 50.1 in June, returning to the top of the boom and bust line.

USD/JPY fell 0.36% to 106.52, reaching a six week low of 106.07 at one time; the exchange rate triggered a stop loss below 106.45/50; the key support was around 105.99, the low on May 6.

The spot gold continued to rise, and the spot gold reached a new high of 1,771.14 US dollars / ounce since October 2012. As the US dollar weakened, and as the coronavirus epidemic hit the economic outlook, central banks widely implemented monetary stimulus measures.

WTI crude oil futures in August closed down $0.36, down 0.88%, and the settlement price was $40.37 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures in August closed down $0.45, down 1.02%, and the settlement price was $42.63 per barrel.



CWG future forecast:

The Central Bank of Japan and the New Zealand Federal Reserve announced the interest rate resolution on this trading day. In the European market, only Germany's IFO business climate index was released in June. In the US session, the data of FHFA house price index in April in the US was released, and the change of EIA crude oil inventory affected the crude oil market.

Institutional Analysis: Barclays research discussed the outlook for the pound on Tuesday, noting that by the end of the year, the target for the pound against the US dollar will be around 1.27, and the euro against the pound will be around 0.91. The Bank predicted that the pound would fluctuate broadly in the near future. Considering the risk of the uncertainty of Brexit, the pound would depreciate moderately against the euro. The lack of a trade agreement would probably affect the British economy disproportionately in the post epidemic stage and limit the rebound of the pound in the global economic recovery stage.



Financial calendar:

Economic data:

16: 00 Germany June IFO business climate index

21:00 US April FHFA house price index

22:30 US EIA crude oil inventory change last week

Central Bank News:

07:50 summary of opinions of the interest rate meeting released by the Bank of Japan

10: 00 New Zealand Federal Reserve announces interest rate resolution

15: 00 European Central Bank chief economist Lien will deliver a speech

21:00 German economy minister Albert Maier holds a press conference on the economic situation in Germany

21:00 the International Monetary Fund will issue a new world economic outlook the next day

At 00:30 the next day, Chicago Fed chairman Evans delivered a speech on the current economic situation and monetary policy

03:00 the next day, “coronavirus pneumonia and economy” speech released by the chairman of the Saint Louis fed, Brad.



CWG financial knowledge:

EIA crude oil inventory change last week in the United States (10,000 barrels): EIA crude oil inventory data, issued by the energy information agency (EIA) of the U.S. Department of energy on a weekly basis, tracks the increase or decrease in barrels of commercial crude oil held by U.S. companies last week. The level of inventory affects the price of oil products, inflation and other economic forces, so the data is widely concerned.

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