More bad news and bad sentiment is going on for glove counters. Minor rebound will happen.. grab that opportunity.

Like it or not. Market is pushing glove counter to its fair value. Don’t be the last. Eventually all the guru and sifu who ask their p**ti***m member to reduce exposure... another waterfall will follow

They still have profit.. anytime can cabut.. everyone is greedy.. people only care for their own wealth. Not other people’s wealth

J.P. Morgan analyst has spoken the fair value of gloves counters. As I have always mentioned. Glove counters is way overpriced.

For those who wanted to invest long term. Please take their TP as your guideline. Buy only when the share price is around 30% less than their TP so that you will see potential upside for capital and dividen income.

No buy sell call, just sharing my view.

@glovefinish, I have been trying to say the same thing. For long term investment.. we have to wait until the share price drop to a fair value.. you are not investing long term when you are stuck at top...

Looks like the dead cat bounce is real at Tuesday.. for those who stay up top.. you have to seriously consider your positions.. you have to run before those “sifu” run.. you have to preserve capital..

I have been through this with sapura energy... so I know the feeling of losing 90% of your capital.. and I can say this hurts a lot.

Win!

faham faham lo,,, MOU can cancel one.

Glove sentiment is no more, seems like a jinx, whoever announce venture in glove now will waterfall .. salcon, At, just to name a few..

Today lose in supermax and topglove have completely wipe out yesterday’s gain, whereas vaccine counter have rallied again.. this shows how negative the market viewed glove counters.

I have said before, if a super bombastic result from top glove cannot rally the glove counters.. nothing much can be done.

For those who wish to hold long term, let the price drop until the fair value of the counter, then you buy in and hold tight tight.

Please do not hate money, capital protection is most important in trading. No doubt supermax is earning money. But there are no correlation between a company financial performance and share price.. this happened in bursa.

As proven now, they can continue make record profits.. but the share price will go back to fair value. Please analyze where the shark go, and follow in to earn money.. stand together with sharks.. not against shark.

Sure it dont help the sentiment when local newspaper is publishing this negative news..

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/12/09/spike-in-prices-of-glove-stocks-not-a-comeback

big opportunity to buy low and camp again... seems like government will push construction to stimulate economy, if ECRL agreement is true, this project can have a very positive outcome for the company earning.

Just sharing, in bursa, to make profit, you must do exactly the opposite of logic.

Logic will ask you to buy glove as it is a profitable company “now” however, those who make profit in bursa is those who buy vaccine counter

Hmm... notices that the trend is still against glove.. shall hold my bullets first...

@ibelieve, as stated in my earlier posting, the announcement from WHO will be a major deciding factor on future trend and sentiment in glove counter.: don’t go against sentiment.. see money take money,

Seems that the vaccine party is still on going, might looking for re entry there first.

Disclaimer: not making any lecture, I’m not qualified. Just sharing my opinion.

Good day for gloves, after the bad sentiment on vaccine counter due to KJ statement. I believe Many including myself has TP.

Many traders from vaccine counter have turn attention to glove with that additional capital which contribute to the rally. However it is not that the sentiment on glove has recovered and more like the result of the bad sentiment on vaccine counter that make money spill over to glove counters.

The main event to look for is when WHO approve or not approve the use of vaccine, if WHO approve the use of vaccine, it is inevitable money will flow back to the vaccine counter.

However if WHO reject the approval of vaccine use, glove counter might have another rally, if the sentiment is good, I will rejoin the party. I don’t hate gloves and I don’t hate money.

But my view is still the counter is very overpriced, you can trade in and out, but please do not hold long term. Gloves is cyclical, the last rally was during H1N1. From there until earlier of the years it’s going sideways until COVID breakout..

If you want to hold long term, please buy in only when it is trading at the fair value.

Thanks for agjl advise, I have cleared my holdings this morning and waiting for re entry to vaccine counter if the trend is still there, no worries, I have landed safely.

I thought Ibelieve is capable of adult discussion, but how wrong am I, he is just no different from other forumer, as I have constantly supported my statement with facts without trolling, he is using vulgar language with hate and disgusting words,

This proofs that when one is desperate, anger follows, with anger, a person will need to release the anger to someone to cool down.

Heed my advise, this is a perfect scenario of a dead car bounce, those who still have the chance, take this opportunity to clear your holding.

I see many here are desperate for sharks to swim back and save them.. don’t this make this a goreng counter as well? What makes this counter different from other penny stock if they needed sharks to push the price?

A proper fundamental counter and blue chip is nestle or banks, which they do not need smart money to help push the price.

Thanks for sharing this information to me though, you might have saved me some money!

I see that agjl and other forumers are cheering and celebrating KJ statement, but it does not change the fact that gloves is still massively overpriced and this news itself will not miraculously reverse the downtrend of this counter as proven by facts and chart. The fact that there is only retailer in this counter speaks volume on the popularity of this counter in the eyes of the IB

As I said before, while you are still holding tight tight at a lost position. I have plenty of room to consider my position as I have bought low. If the trend is over, I shall dispose my position as suggested by agjl, I will not hold tight tight and grow sentiment on a counter.

After that, I will take the profit that I made from vaccine to other counter which is in trend. Namely o&g and metal/copper.. I will not stay in vaccine to try to prove a point like many forumers here.

When the time is up.. I will leave. I won’t say no to money

Blessed investor, yes you are right, sell during dead cat rebound...

Any comment from bro ocrinsider?

There is a saying in Chinese, 不要跟钱作对, roughly translate to “don’t hate money”. Don’t hate your money until you donate it to bursa for nothing.

Evening, I know it has been a long day for supermax holders, not trying to rub salt in wound here but one have to know that when a game is over, it is over. We must always preserve capital. Nothing is more important then that. Do not even try to catch a falling knife, a falling knife happens when the investor noticed that the share price is way over value, And decided to dispose their holdings. More will soon follow.

I have repeatedly advice new bills that you lose 10% is much better than lose 80%. Few still ridiculed me me for stating the obvious. And now they are feeling the pain seeing their paper profit reducing and paper lose increasing.

I did not call buy steel and vaccine counter.. I merely state that it is the trend now, for those who took my hint, you already get back your lose in supermax by buying into those counters. For those who still ok believe on fundamental, stay strong in holding, the worst is yet to come.

Everyone keep saying that share price will go back to fundamental, but take my advice, history has proven itself again and again that share price will always go back to the fair value after an illogical spike, Heng yuan is the best example..

Those who still want to hold,. Be prepared to stick with them for another couple of years.. there may be another session again like Heng yuan now..

Hi Selina, the keyword is “when” the music stop, however the music in glove has already stopped! And stop long long ago

Bro ibelieve. im SMH now. as you wish, i will use the term shark and bilis.

First of all, i did not say shark exited bursa, im saying from what i observe, they are exiting glove counter and accumulating in the next counter (which is still in bursa). hence of course the participation rate is there, there are a few apps out there which can let you see if sharks funds is in a particular counter or not.

not trying to lecture anyone economics as im not qualified, just sharing basic economic 101 of supply and demand, the TP given is based on illogical high ASP, which cannot be sustain if glove supply is more than demand. (as you say supermax is expanding their glove production, wont this dilute the ASP)?

congratz on your paper gain on glove stock as you have bought low you have plenty of time and margin to plan your exit. my message above is for the uninformed new traders who chased high during the early august period when sentiment is at the highest before the big wash, many chased high at RM 24 is having a 30% paper loss and many more still trapped.

just a note, UK is preparing for mass vaccination for their citizen, another washing is imminent, please use the dead cat bounce opportunity to run.

hi liewtz06, yes what im saying is that a fundamental stock will have its fair value. and currently, it is not trading at fair value. you see supermax year to date chart, it has risen over 1000% and over 1500% at its peak.

with growing positive news on vaccine and negative market sentiment on gloves. i cannot see the price sustaining at this value. Dead cat bounce do happen, take this opportunity do exit.

biliskecil, go check YouTube a lot video introducing 3D printing, normally if you buy a new launch terrace house in Malaysia, it takes more than one year to construct the house right ? with 3D technology it can be done within 24 hours, you just imagine 3D tech save how many manpower and costing? many construction workers will become jobless.

Hi kltower, i see this as good news for construction sector, for all the manpower and cost saved, it translate to better profit. i know abit about construction, they use progress billing to bill end financing or purchaser, hence sometimes will have cashflow problem if the construction progress slows down. if a house can be built in 24 hours. they get to bill the purchaser in one day.

why do you think this is a bad news for developer and contractor? in fact it might be a new dawn for the sector to boom. Developer can get money faster from end financier, contractor can get payment faster from developer and bank can collect loan installment from purchaser faster. its a win win win for all the sector your mentioned.

For the “sir” toneefa, it’s not that I can’t refute your statement, but you have just been spewing hate and rudeness to facts.: and praising another forumer “sifu” as if he is a god.

Unlike bro Ibelieve, I don’t think you are rational enough or in a right mind to hold a conversation. Until you are willing to hold a proper discussion. I will refrain from replying to you.

Btw, are you that “sifu” in disguise? Something to ponder.

Kltower, the technology is in infant stages.. any fact that support your statement that banking and construction will be doomed?

I have always stated facts to support my view on gloves. Hope you do the same.

Ibelieve bro,, we are all Ikan bilis in bursa, we don’t have any chance to go against the IB and fund managers and EPF. Best chance we make profit in bursa is to follow behind the big sharks.. they are the one that set the rhythm and trend. we can only enter abit high when we notice they are starting to accumulate, and exit before there are hint of them slowly disposing. We small bilis cannot dream to sell at the highest point and buy in the lowest.

It’s seems that you have been in bursa for quite awhile, so after all this years of observation, when have you seen share price in bursa return to fundamental? Bursa is always playing in market sentiment and trend.

Besides, I never mention steel/copper for long term investment.. it’s a trend I notice/observe since copper price is at all time high now.

Lastly, try to observe the way IB making their exit.. they won’t dispose few block of shares immediately at one time to induce fear, they will slowly let go of their holdings.. since the drop of share price is not significant. We ikan bilis will thought that it is opportunity to buy on weakness.. but in fact, IB is slowly throwing their tickets to you without you knowing and take the profit they make from you to start accumulating for the next trend counters.

Please all who read this do not be the person who is being slowly cooked to death in the pot.

I feel like the forumers here dislike facts.. sure nobody ask for my pov, but I feel that it is the right thing to do to share facts to new innocent traders/silent readers here to let them make informed decisions. As I know, there are many new traders who go in to bursa this year.

I myself paid “tuition fee” to bursa in my early days in trading by following the “sifu” buy sell call and I don’t want this to happen to the new traders.

The important fact that new traders must know is those “sifu” is also in bursa to make “profit”, hence, in a zero sum game, in order for “sifu” to make huge profit, many must lose.

Don’t forget that the same “sifu” that call buy have already collected a lot of ticket low when the price is at rm 0.75 post bonus issue price at around March - April 2020. Their profit is still more than 10x if they decided to take profit now. They always say disclaimer and TAYOR to run away from responsibility. Those “sifu” and their gang have a gigantic holding. One fine day when they decided to dispose all the holdings, you cry also no tears.

My view is glove trend is on its finish line, the current trend which have not reached its peak is vaccine and metal/copper..

To freetospeak im also not trying to be long winded, please take my point below.

1. my mistake to assume that your "Caps" is referring to market capitalization instead of capacity, however, even if supermax reach 48 billion production capacity in Year 2022, which is the time when everything is normalized to pre covid ASP or maybe a 20% increase, can i also assume that the share price will also only double from RM 0.75 post bonus issue to RM 1.5 post bonus issue?

2. 70% OBM pre covid and 98 % OBM post covid, a 28% increase. assuming the earnings factored in the share price, so RM 1.92 after covid?

3. this new structure is a double edge sword, how much additional profit can be earned by removing them? By removing the middle man and special interest, supermax have angered the middle man and will definitely make future dealings hard. they might refuse to take supermax glove or products in the future by choosing to source elsewhere, there are abundant of new glove makers in malaysia. if there is a glut of oversupply. the glove produced by supermax will stay in their warehouse. if no demand, however high the ASP also useless.

4. What makes you think that the current ASP will be benchmark? Biden might be friendly with china going forward, you know how fast china can set up glove factory right? price of a commodity will not normalize, it will always fluctuate based on supply and demand.

5. As mentioned by yourself, precovid ASP of USD 23, post covid ASP of USD 45, any facts to support this normalized ASP? why suddenly USD 45 is the normal price for something i can get for USD 23 previously assuming no undersupply of stock?

6. ok, agree on no new venture as of today.

7. nothing much to say about the contact lenses as you are also speculating that it might be main income in the future,

8.again, speculations on the inclusion in KLCI will boost the share price, but what i can see factually is that previously after the inclusion of supermax in msci, the share price plummeted. and never recovered to peak. i can see lower high and lover low in the chart, exactly like Heng Yuan.

9. since you agree that ASP will drop, does that mean that the calculation of Target Price in your blog have to take the reduction into consideration as well?

There is no structural change in my view. for commodity, it is simple, low supply = high price, when there is a glut of overproduced gloves in the warehouse, got knows what will happen to the ASP. remember not long ago oil futures trade in negative figures due to supply glut.

Finally, my view is that supermax share price is trading at a premium now. investors trapped high must reconsider their position wisely.

For the Mr/Ms Toneefa, no need to be rude, i my self trapped high in sapura energy rm 1.XX , a strong fundamental company at that time, i held on the shares with the hope for a rebound, but it never happen, i still keep the share up to today with a 90% paper loss in my portfolio just to remind me not to be attached or blindly believe counter ever again.

Sometimes we have to make a hard but informed decision to cut loss and preserve your capital. bursa have 1000+ counters, you can gain back your loss if you still have 80% or 90 % of your original capital. but it will be harder if you are left with only 10%.

ibelieve, not trying to bantai anything, because i made profit in this counter, but that was during july when positive vaccine news is rapidly growing, i slowly sell all my glove holdings and move towards vaccine as it is inevitable that the next trend will be vaccine counter,

im not hardcore bintai solution fan, but i just go in when the counter is on uptrend follow by market sentiment. for glove the sentiment is around June when they gap up a few times. i know when it is time to TP, but it is still early for vaccine counter.

i did not simply say RM 1.5, it is supported by historical chart, supermax is consistently moving around RM 1-RM1.5 for 5 years at least pre bonus issue which makes RM 0.75 post bonus issue.

My fren fair enough. I can see u r charting super future valuebased on past trend... i suppose this is a good analysis...if....if... it apply in a whack counter...

ofcuz bro agjl, every counter that goes up must come down, im not denying that xxx counter that i bought will stay high forever, the thing is i bought at a very low entry price i have plenty of room to prepare for exit when thing goes south. same as those who still hold glove with a very low entry price, they still make money if they run now. for those who chased high, i feel for them,

when those so called "sifu" ask you to hold tight tight or average down, you know it is the time to run, if not who are they throwing the tickets to? fundamental will change over time.

one thing that i learn from share market is that you dont go against market sentiment to try to proof a point. it has proven again and again with facts that every time glove counter announce record breaking profit, their share price waterfalls.

our main reason to enter to stock market is to make profit, not to grow sentiment towards a particular counter,

Again, i am not Bantaing your counter, i just wish that innocent investors can have more information from both sides to make informed decision

let me debunk "sifu" freetospeak facts and figure one by one.

Supermax with same market cap as harta, (any fact to support this statement?)

1. 48 bil market cap by 2020? how do you get this figure? you pluck from sky?

2. 98% OBM, this is a fact, but dint supermax have 98% OBM pre covid when their share price is RM 0.75? what advantage is this?

3. increased margin forever? did you study supply and demand? more and more company venturing into glove business. Even oil price drop from high of $120 per barrel to $40 now. i still remember those people who say oil price will only go up due to being non renewable energy, if oil price can fall for over 60%, what makes price of glove remain high forever?

4. one off contract with high asp does not mean that the asp will be forever high, contract is meant to be renewed, and the terms change in every negotiation.

5. every company is venturing in healthcare sector which is high supply = low price

6. again, any facts on new venture?

7. contact lens business is good, however it cannot be used to justify the current share price as it is too over value and contact lenses is not supermax main income generator

8. the result of indexed in KLCI is a 5% drop of share price post announcement.

9. ASP will reduce as per macroeconomic law. low demand or over supply = reduced price or ASP if you like to call it that way.

Finally the below statement show that freetospeak "sifu" is merely speculating on the future without facts and figure, how he get the above figure is amusing. and you guys said that he provided facts?

"Layman wont understand this. They will witness it in future.
How i know. My oracle said so" Quoted, freetospeak.

lastly you talked about fundamental, isnt heng yuan also having a very strong fundamental during its last spike? the value of the share price now is history. not denying that supermax is earning money. however with vaccine on the horizon and many small company venturing into glove business, the ASP will fall and the share price cannot be sustained.

i said again and again history will repeat itself, what goes up must come down. you loss 10% is better than 80%.

make a wise decision.

Agil, my findings has been proven in supermax 1 year share price chart pre covid, see their share price is hovering around rm 1 - RM 1.5 Pre bonus issue which translate to RM 0.75 post bonus issue which means that the share price fair value is around that range. Any more facts needed? dint the chart just proof enough? a historic share price chart is not a fact? will you pay lambo price for a kancil?

Those high in condo now please cut loss, those still have profit, cut profit. Losing 10% of your capital is better than losing 80% of your capita when the share price goes back to the fair value of rm 1.5

Once everything back to normal with mass vaccination, supermax will back to the average share price of rm 1.5 fair value

Agjl no need genius calculation to know the fair value,, go back search Supermax average share price for 10 or even 1 years pre-covid, then you got the answer for fair value.. chart don’t lie.. all those “Sifu” with the genius calculation Is only hallucinating

Same like those who doubt glove in March 2020

You doubt you wait = you lose

Yes, the dramatic movement down to the fair value of rm 1.5..

Rm 3 not a dream.. hold tight tight for journey to rm 3.. good return for dividend counter.. if can hit rm 2 Kagi bagus.. side by side with vaccine counter.

Mana orang itu freetospeak with all the genius calculations?

After 6 months in fridge,. ECRL agreement maybe out soon?

50 sen no problem.

Limit up!!!! Glovers still don’t want to join the fun.: hahaha

bangun dah

Vaccine will save our 2021, hope can go vacation in year 2021 with capital gain from bintai!

Collected more!!!!

Scroll back my comment,, already ask you to cut and join vaccine while price of solution and bintai around 60 sen,, now the price of bintai x 2 and solution x3...