Steel prices of various type of steels have stablised

https://finance.sina.com.cn/futures/quotes/RB2201.shtml

China steel futures rebound 3.6%, HRC up 5.3%

Likely the next will be Nexia will resign as auditors. The next is Serba not able to get auditors to audit and sign their account. t

Next is to sue to Nexia plt...because cannot meet the deadline...

bondholders will need to write off their bonds as bad debts soon

shareholders should request an EGM to remove karim as director of the company....

Gone case. If serba is net cash company, then is ok. I am doubt they can complete their audit this year. Soon they will have cash flow problem as bank is not lending to company which cannot produce audit report and red flagged by auditors. The next is to sue who?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/11/05/everything-in-the-1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-new-roads-electric-school-buses-great-lakes-restoration-and-more/?sh=5f0269bc5a1a

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-sector-slows-moderately-october-ism-2021-11-01/

The ISM reported 26 commodities were in short supply in October, some for as long as 13 straight months. That compared to 24 in September.


Commodities in Short Supply
Adhesives and Paints (4); Caustic Soda; Corrugated Packaging (4); Electrical Components (13); Electronic Components (11); Foam; Freight (2); Labor — Temporary (6); Ocean Freight (7); Ocean Freight Containers; Packaging Supplies; Pallets; Phosphates; Plastic Containers (2); Plastic Products (9); Plastic Resins — Other (8); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) (2); Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PCBAs) (3); Rubber-Based Products (3); Semiconductors (11); Silane; Silicon; Steel (11); Steel — Hot Rolled (12); Steel — Stainless (8); and Steel Products (9).

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-sector-slows-moderately-october-ism-2021-11-01/

The ISM reported 26 commodities were in short supply in October, some for as long as 13 straight months. That compared to 24 in September.


Commodities in Short Supply
Adhesives and Paints (4); Caustic Soda; Corrugated Packaging (4); Electrical Components (13); Electronic Components (11); Foam; Freight (2); Labor — Temporary (6); Ocean Freight (7); Ocean Freight Containers; Packaging Supplies; Pallets; Phosphates; Plastic Containers (2); Plastic Products (9); Plastic Resins — Other (8); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) (2); Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PCBAs) (3); Rubber-Based Products (3); Semiconductors (11); Silane; Silicon; Steel (11); Steel — Hot Rolled (12); Steel — Stainless (8); and Steel Products (9).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIS9haFZ7ys

美國陷入鋼鐵荒！鋼鐵成本飆升2倍，美國3萬家工廠被迫停工！| 時政快報

True?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-biden-sign-once-generation-142709430.html

How much steel is used in solar panels?
In 2018, an estimated 5.8 million tons of steel were used in US solar installations, about 6% of the 100 million tons used per year in the US. GLASS makes up the majority of a panel's weight, letting light through while protecting the cells from moisture and dirt.

According to a report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, wind turbines are predominantly made of steel (71-79% of total turbine mass); fiberglass, resin or plastic (11-16%); iron or cast iron (5- 17%); copper (1%); and aluminum (0-2%).

PMB got tax exemption for about 10 years and is not affected by makmur tax, trade sentiment maybe but will be short term...

aluminum and other commodities rebounding in US and Europe mkt.

I do not think China govt can control commodities prices. They may be able to control coal prices by being the largest producer in the world, but not commodities like aluminium, oil etc.

Lion Ind started move and is moving much faster...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lion-industries-bets-hot-rolled-coil-revival-turnaround

Don't forget also Lion Ind HRC, which will be operational by Dec 2021 based on my contact. The only flat steel producer in the the country and protected by anti dumping duties till 2025. Car, engineering parts, wind farms etc call using this flat steel...

Probability is right... Ann Joo and Hiaptek will benefit the most...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hiap-teck-start-construction-rm750m-blast-furnace-2h11


Hiap Teck had proposed to build the blast furnace in Kemaman, Terengganu after it acquired a 55% stake in Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd for RM110 million, or a price-to-book value of 1.4 times last year.

It said the 530-cubic metre blast furnace would help Hiap Teck better position itself in the steel industry as the iron ore produced would be of higher quality and would incur less cost. Steel scrap prices surged recently, eroding profit margins of steel players.

The blast furnace will be built on 1,200 acres of land, and Eastern Steel has the option to acquire another 600 acres at the estate, upon completion of 50% of the first phase of the proposed project. The blast furnace will have an annual production capacity of 700,000 metric tonnes when completed.

Low said Hiap Teck currently has the licence to produce five million metric tonnes of iron ore.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/myinvesting/2017-08-28-story-h1451414408-AnnJoo_s_cost_leadership_in_steel_industry.jsp


Ann Joo is able to either use iron ore or scrap metal as feedstock. The flexibility in feedstock allows Ann Joo to switch raw materials. For instance, when scrap metal is more expensive than iron ore, so it can opt for iron ore to manage and reduce input costs, and vice versa

price remains at 4000- 5000 is good enough for steel to make hugh profit in long term as high steel price will hurt steel demand in long run...

coal price dropped by 30% within a week and iron ore dropped by about 8-10%, whereas steel rebar price also dropped by about 10%-15%, do you think is a bad news?

Making of steel required about 50% of coal and 50% of iron ore, this means cost are down also, steel makers are still enjoying very good profit margin...

"This morning, RHB analyst came up with a note on $PMETAL and touched on the intrinsic value potential of the company from PMBT.. The analyst projected PMBTECH net profit in 2022 to be RM960m, indicating a 3x PE from current prices.."

a good proxy to airasia with healty balance sheet...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10049943/How-Chinas-energy-crisis-push-price-boob-job.html

up for 3 days already, profit taking will happen anytime...

Around 0.6 tonnes (600 kg) of coke produces 1 tonne (1000 kg) of steel, which means that around 770 kg of coal are used to produce 1 tonne of steel through this production route.

Now coal and coke price are historical high. The drop in iron ore price will be offset by sky high coal price. As such cost of producing still high, as such steel price remains high. Any sifu can share more accurate calculation or insight?

https://inews.co.uk/news/consumer/silicon-shortage-semiconductor-chips-why-cars-consoles-delayed-explained-1229981

silicon shortage continues...

Steel...many producers and no shortage

Silicon....shortage

Current capacity is 72,000 MT pa. Planning for the expansion of Phase 3 and Phase 4 is underway...

On the way to RM 5 b company

With increase in silicon price of more than 300%, the profit margin should be higher than 10%...

PMB forward PE of 20 should give its mkt cap of RM 5b, which is double the current share price.
Mkt cap of RM 5b still very small compared with its major shareholders mkt cap of RM 45b. Pmetal used to have PE of 30-50

Based on the author estimate

70,000 * 50,000 = 3,500,000,000 YUAN (3.5 billions YUAN = RM 2,272,907,032)

PMB net profit margin is about 10% based on past few quarter results. RM 2.2b sales x 10% = RM 220m. Assuming PE 20 (Conserviative PE as Pmetal used to have PE of betwen 30-50 in the past) will give mkt cap of about RM 4.5 billion. Current mkt cap is about RM 2.4b.

PE 20 -30 should be very fair to PMB as it is in a special industry and barrier to entry is very high.

Future growth prospect

This year PMB completed phase 2 expansion making its output to 72k MT. The land area for the factory can cater for another 2 phases of expansion in near future. The mgt has indicated that negotations are underway with Sarawak Energy on power supply deal for phase 3-4 expansion. We shall hear some good news from them in near future.

PMB is a gem just unearthed recently.

Based on the author estimate

70,000 * 50,000 = 3,500,000,000 YUAN (3.5 billions YUAN = RM 2,272,907,032)

PMB net profit margin is about 10% based on past few quarter results. RM 2.2b sales x 10% = RM 220m. Assuming PE 20 (Conserviative PE as Pmetal used to have PE of betwen 30-50 in the past) will give mkt cap of about RM 4.5 billion. Current mkt cap is about RM 2.4b.

PE 20 -30 should be very fair to PMB as it is in a special industry and barrier to entry is very high.

Future growth prospect

This year PMB completed phase 2 expansion making its output to 72k MT. The land area for the factory can cater for another 2 phases of expansion in near future. The mgt has indicated that negotations are underway with Sarawak Energy on power supply deal for phase 3-4 expansion. We shall hear some good news from them in near future.

The JV entity’s continued investment in plant and equipment to enhance cost efficiencies will
further improve contributions to the Group. In its latest project development, the JV entity has
completed the first 100,000 MT of its planned 400,000 MT coke oven plant in June 2021. The
second 100,000 MT will complete in October 2021 with the next 200,000 MT targeted to complete
by the second quarter of 2022. The coke oven plant will significantly reduce the JV entity’s
production costs and improve its profitability. Moving forward, the JV also sees exciting
opportunities as China continues to pursue its carbon emissions targets and production restrictions,
and relying more on imports for general purpose items.

Look like prospect is good....

no details yet on how to define new project and non new project.

CEEC will try its best to get approval from the govt and financial backing soonest.

Let see...

I agree now is risky as it has not achieved financial close.

Look like no short term fix to china power problem.

https://www.echemi.com/cms/350702.html

Silicone: Under the background of dual energy consumption control, 90% of the production capacity of the high-energy-consuming industrial silicon industry is limited, and the price has risen rapidly from 16,000 yuan/ton to more than 30,000 yuan/ton. About 40% of the downstream part of industrial silicon is used in organic silicon, which also leads to a shortage of organic silicon raw materials. At present, Tangshan Sanyou, Hubei Xingfa, Shandong Jinling, Luxi Chemical, Zhejiang Zhongtian, Inner Mongolia Hengye Cheng, He Sheng Silicon Industry and a number of companies closed the offer without quotation. Manufacturers have tight supply, limited orders, and pre-orders are the main priority. The bulk cargo price has been quoted to 43,000 yuan/ton. Some companies said that in the past, they have risen by a thousand or eight hundred, but recently they have risen by several thousand and several thousand, which is not crazy.

Any thought why Song Hau2 will not be affected by new President Xi's policy?

Xi said China govt will not finance.

Toyoven Song Hau should be private initiative, considered a Malaysian project joint venture project with China corporation, will it be affected as formal agreement not announced yet.

谈谈 #TOPGLOV 顶级 FY21 Q4 的业绩，和未来 2022-2023 年的估值.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKSH3kLBwME

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKSH3kLBwME

谈谈 #TOPGLOV 顶级 FY21 Q4 的业绩，和未来 2022-2023 年的估值.

https://www.sinchew.com.my/?p=3270741
华尔街追踪散户动向担心GameStop悲剧重演

I believe only upstream manufacturers like Ann Joo and Hiapteck will benefit from high steel price not those do tradings. Ann Joo and Hiapteck are exporting to China if no local demand.

31082021 从中国英科医疗手套扩张计划來看世界手套产能. 在2024年，全球丁腈医疗手套会不会产能过剩?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODsufi1tQ5w

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-b-C3lekeEk&t=15s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eekjIw9kLB8

美国丁腈医疗手套，6月进口贸易数据显示大马手套ASP并没有下降 !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX2cR2TdfQg


从中国海关7月出口数据看全球一次性丁腈手套的需求量和ASP.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2021-08-29-story-h1570631235-Hiap_Teck_will_shoot_like_a_rocket_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

Let see Hiaptek can attract more buying interest like Ann Joo...

Local funds are buying Ann Joo. Ann Joo just declared good dividend last week. Ann Joo used to be one of top picks of funds for steel counter many years ago until china dumped all steels.

ESG issue will have effect on valuation of a stock by Mr Market. Previously Mr Market willing to give PE of 25 but now they might only give PE of 10, because many fund managers ( not all) are avoiding stock with ESG issue. When lesser demand for the stocks, the valuation will drop. ESG issue may have little impact on the actual sales of palm oil but it will have impact on palm oil stock valuation.