ah connie!!!

LOL!!!!!

you didn't know that?
really meh?

:)

There are so many cliches within our stock players.

:D

ah connie.

It's ah 3noob la. LOL!

I do not judge anyone from reputation alone.

I rather focus on what's being said here.

Here, I don't quite agree of ULi being a cup and handle.

Cup and handle patterns is one of the stronger patterns to trade on.
But as in everything else, nothing is sure win in stock markets.
Wide and loose chart patterns are 'generally' risky because it's error prone.
Yup, there are cases of failed cup and handle patterns.

Hehe... and I no say Alex no good leh. :P

And you know, here our players, they tend to choose to follow base on reputation alone.
Once they hear someone is good, most important is they follow.
And Uncle Alex has many followers.
No doubt. :)

Their focus is only on what stock, what tp.
That's it. *whistle*

How many will question this cup formation that took more than 2 years (or is it almost 3 years ah?) to form?

However.... chart patterns aside....................

Buying momentum is strong.

Fun(d) in the island came wor!

Island not from Malaysia wo!

LOL! Power. :)

And then you got the help from big time stock blogger, Uncle Alex giving the thumbs up (who cares reason valid or not. :P)

Yes, many simply loves cindy.

Cindy equals volume.

What's my volume song theme again? Hohoho....

no volume no action
no action no money
no money no honey

*whistle*

good morning ah connie.

Alex has really done (duh!) it this time.

Cup and handle pattern?

Meh?

Need to draw until like this meh?

The cup base that took more than 2 years to form? LOL!

And not forgetting the handle. LOL!
Does that really look like a handle?

And the handle taking some 7 months to form? LOL!

Our eyes will always see what we want it to see.

:)

Alex last comment: "Its financial performance is very steady, albeit minimal growth in top-line and bottom-line."

England can always be written differently.
What Alex wrote is probably what I would call an optimistic perspective.
Naughty Ah 3noob (LOL! guess who) perspective or writing style could be... "Its financial performance is simply very lackluster."

(proof or fact: last 5 years financals (hey waves use how many years chart? :P) profit reads like 21m, 18m, 16m, 17m, 16m (21m is oldest (2009) while 16m is from 2013 - although trailing earnings indicate 2014 earnings could be better at 19m)

*whistle*

* whistle - maybe I try to answer my own question - LOL *


1. Take ULI.
a) It has a lone mountain in the chart. What significance is that?
b) If we look at ULI's numbers, it's actually ok, not the best but ok since it's selling at a low PE. So why was ULI in a coma for such a long time? Why was the stock ignored?
c) Why is it only in action after this fun(d) in the island come buying?

Are these questions important?
Yes for me because I am a fussy trader.
I don't simply pick any stock to screw for a quick profit.

Pardon me my england.

------

a) lone protruding mountain in the chart?
That's easy. It tells the stock being pumped and dumped.
A cindy kucing came and partied like hell in 2011. (lol I borrow Ah Seph's cindy kucing. :P)
b) that despite the stock trading at a low PE, the stock was ignored.
Investors realise that despite the cheap PE, the stock has a lackluster track record. Yes, the stock is cheap but it doesn't mean it was quality. And were investors worried about ULI's past?
c) So the fun(d) in the island came and the stock came into alive.

What's point (c) saying?

:P

This was a stock which used to played by cindy kucing.
After played it was dumped.....
Since then.... nothing.
With the fun(d) in the island come calling.....
LOL!
Isn't it clear that there's a new cindy kucing in town?

So what does cindy kucing likes to do?


Yup... knowing the past is important.

:D

hehe... is there boon1 and boon2 and boon4?

LOL!

ah connie ah.

Ouch! LOL! Bravo!

Good one I dare say.

If you don't know your past ...........

care to do the dots dots dots... history lesson or england lesson.
Duh! Hahaha!



Here's 2 examples why the past is useful knowledge.

1. Take ULI.
a) It has a lone mountain in the chart. What significance is that?
b) If we look at ULI's numbers, it's actually ok, not the best but ok since it's selling at a low PE. So why was ULI in a coma for such a long time? Why was the stock ignored?
c) Why is it only in action after this fun(d) in the island come buying?

Are these questions important?
Yes for me because I am a fussy trader.
I don't simply pick any stock to screw for a quick profit.

Pardon me my england.

2. Take Seal.

Is Seal past important?

Yes. It used to have a bad reputation. We need to be aware of that.
It was a punting stock.
Made money for some.
Made many lose their pants too.

Things however have changed.
Stock is running up because of the drastic change in the company's fundamentals.

If we can understand and accept the past the past history and realise the current/present Seal is a totally different company, then Seal itself might have been a promising bet.

See. I don't just trade and bet just based on charts.
I do not let the charts dictate my market bets.
Charts are just charts.
Some are what I will call designer charts too.
LOL!

Yup, we are all different breed.
And if you understand this, this is why the market is so like this macam all the time.

:)

ah connie ah. LOL!

For sure that island is beautiful.

:P

seph: you are welcome.
Just hope that everyone understand ULI's past.

:D

oh. Forgot to mention this.

These few days, ULI hot story is the so-called fund from.... dunno what island.. is buying.

:P

Ah connie.

Sorry to butt in on ulicorp.
(Ah Seph, just telling it as it is la...)

That 1.42 price thingee...
it came with a nice juicy story...

http://www.thestar.com.my/Story/?sec=b&file=%2F2011%2F6%2F9%2Fbusiness%2F8862096

(see bottom bit hor... ULI name not very clean)

Stock was suspended...
then they announce this...

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/555336

MOU... big tie up with french company...

That story caused the stock to gap up...
strong vol too... blah blah blah...

then rest is as they say history...
the next day...
heavy selling came...
stock kept sliding and sliding...

By Oct. This came out.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/869754

MOU was terminated...

hence... you see that lone big mountain (LOL) in the stock chart.


* shall I say this is a story for your brunch? LOL *

Ooo newbie.
Concentrate on your exams.
The market is always gonna be there.
And when you ace your exams with flying colors, you can always can back and whack the market.

GL

ah connie ah.

Yes, of course your views is rather valid too.

:)

newbie: I used to do that a lot few years back.
That was when I was an active 'paper' trader (ie fake trading).
I tested and tested many stuff.
I had to discover myself.
What I am good at and what I am not.

After that I started to focus only on my good stuff.
There is no such thing as 'try luck'...
after that, things seem to fall in place for me.

nowadays... I just watch the market for a while and then that's it.
Stock names maybe different but Everything is the same one.
In the evenings, I just look see at what has happened during the day.

This suits me.
You just have to find what suits you. :)

I watch the market mostly in the mornings and I do not trade everyday.

I am just one who rather wait and wait for a trade which I think I can make a big kill.

Yeah... I trade much lesser.

morning newbie :)

motomoto: Thanks for sharing your calculations. Sorry slow reply cos I fell asleep.

If you have a RHB or should I say OSK report dated 17/4. (few years back, RHB reports were much better quality, but sadly now NO)

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/50378.jsp

Point to note: "The group had an outstanding order book of 4m copies of MyKad as of Dec 2013." (note to myself: Dsonic order book is smallish)

Late April, Dsonic got contract extension. Contract value is 292 million. Using a 30% margin (30% is based on Dsonic track record), estimate profit is only about 87 million.

Key point to note is the bulk of the contract is only to supplied within 2 years, which averages out to a potential 43 million profit per year.

Yes, it still other business.
How much roughly will the other business contribute?
Is it likely to contribute as much profit as MyKad (which is Dsonic key bread and butter?)

Now if you look at the forecast table,

https://research.osk188.com/images/33/IQZE1437268090534f2a175b48c.jpg

Check out net profit row. 2014F was 98m and 2015F was 110m.

Question is why is 2015F projected to increase by 12m to 110m?

Any new contracts awarded to justify the growth?

Now yesterday, RHB decided to increase the 110m forecast to 135m. (This is important cos the so-called fair value is based on 135m)

https://research.osk188.com/images/30/utcB151815265553ab6ac6457bf.jpg

This is an increase of 25m.

They reasoned '... we expect FHSB to be paid at least 2-3% of the potential savings. Pegging a net margin of 40% to potential annual revenues of MYR200m-MYR300m, we estimate that the fuel subsidy program, if it materializes, could bring in an additional MYR24m-MYR36m to Datasonic’s bottomline on a full-year basis. With that, we upgrade our FY16F earnings estimate by 22.9% to MYR135m.'

I would question why should a 40% estimate be used?
Can Dsonic get such a fat juicy contract when apparently there are others challenging for the contract also?
And why 40% when Dsocnic track record margins is only about 30%?

30% and 40% is a lot of different.

On a 30% margin, I would assume ( 200m * 30% (margin) * 30% (30% share of FHSB) = 18m. (RHB is using 25m - which means RHB estimate is 38% more than me who used Dsonic track record margin of 30%)

And also RHB is assuming that upon winning the contract, Dsonic is able to complete the contract within one year.

Compare it to the recent myKad project. That project duration was for 2 years..

What if like MyKad project, this fuel subsidy program is also for a 2 year duration?

If it's a 2 year duration, this fuel subsidy has a potential of 9 million profit a year only.

Based on simple guesstimates I may be wrong but I reckon the 135 million profit is too optimistic.

Also for consideration.

Currently, based on trailing numbers, Dsonic is only churning out a profit of around 80 million.

May quarter result, Dsonic only posted a profit of 12 million and if we annualised it, we get a profit estimate of around 48 million.

135 million looks far away right now.............

And we also need to remember that at this moment of time, Dsonic has yet to win this fuel subsidy thingee........

----------------------------------------------
Last but not least... we need to consider the fact that Dsonic is now a different animal.

Right now, today, Dsonic is no longer a mid/small sized stock.

Meaning, Dsonic used to be a 675 million shares stock.

Now, after the bonus, Dsonic is now a 1.35 Billion shares stock.

The number of shares has doubled.

And if one uses the size of the elephant in the room theory, a small elephant is always much easier to move out of the room. ( lol )
Now the small elephant is no longer small.
It's twice as big....
Meaning by logic.... there's a probability that Dsonic might not move as easily as before.

Hope you understand these comments are just comments on the stock.

I am one who understands very well that in the share market, Mr.AnythingCanHappen rules.

Good shares can be fried.
Average shares can be fried.
Lousy shares can be fried.
Chap Lap shares also can be fried.

All is needed is the wok and the oil...... lol.... and the chef too!

For us, best we don't get fried ourselves.

*morning connie: hope this is long enough for you. LOL!
And yeah, the chart still looks good. *

I asked because that 139m profit estimate looks really optimistic in my opinion.

motomoto: Do you know how they came up with a profit estimate of 139m?

abang duit, no see food la.
just call me ah boon and that's good enough. :)

Eh? I just gave my opinions and stock markets opinions is just opinions cos many times stocks also have their own opinions also.
Furthermore, my opinions could be wrong also.

Ah connie: I told you before leh that I don't like to screw stocks for quick profits.
That's my weakness.
It's something I am NOT good at.

I prefer to trade stocks with good catalysts.

Abang duit.

From a trading/punting perspective based on news on Bpuri, I dunno leh, yes, maybe the stock can get some excitement.
See the volume?
Got volume today leh...
Since got volume, got action....
I think la...
it's possible to see action.
And you know la...
there are some traders who like to see current price...
and then the look at where the previous high price...
so they see BPuri price at 685 and they probably be attracted to 80 sen.

But if I use fundamentals, ie if I judge this company based on its past track records, I would rate Bpuri very poor as an investment stock. Therefor, I would probably not bother trading this stock.

My 3 sen hor.

ah connie.

My comparison would have been different.

I would compare when Seal and Salcon reported their profits in May.

Seal's profit report was on 30/5. ( I use the next day gap up price of 76 sen)

Salcon's profit report was on 23/5. ( I use next day opening price of 77 sen)

For Dsonic.
If you ever have the time and like to read, you can follow from this link.
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3175152/+2420#

Read from post 2422 and continue to the next page.

Consider this:
Most 'investors' understand that Dsonic current valuations is super high.
They are most likely not going to buy the stock.

Is this issue important for the trader?
Well, if only traders are left trading/punting the stock, how high can the stock go and how sustainable the run up?

See, if I had used charts alone...
YES, I would most likely screw the stock for a trade.
With the back of 'positive news' and development, my thinking would be this stock have a very good chance of re-testing its previous high of around 240.
Quite a new chunk of profit.... :P

See the difference?
If I trade with fundamentals, I would not touch this stock at current price.
If I trade without knowing the fundamentals, hell yes, I would trade the stock.

:P

See, this is what excites me about seal.

It's a turnaround story.
Wonderful tale of hardworking success.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/05/Firm-sheds-old-image/

As you know, many companies can have good growth but not many actually generate the cash to back up its growth.
If you look at latest profit report, seal had 52 million in its piggy bank at start of the year.
When it reported its profit report in May, the piggy bank had swell to 113 million.

I said WOW to myself.

Now this company (although a property company - who is adopting a much cautious approach via joint venture property developments) is not only making good profit but it was also selling at an attractive pricing too!

Which is why I thought the stock could go up a lot.

Yes, I understand your stance about waves. :)

But if you understand what I have just written, you would understand why fundamentals can help a trader so much.

You can compare it to Salcon.

Why Salcon movement was much weaker than Seal?

My take is...

For Salcon, it's all about future potential.
Can it make it as a property player (currently Salcon property track record is poor. The future lies with Datuk Eddy Leong who just joined Salcon)

For Seal, the potential is current and there is bright future also.

Therefor, with such an assessment, I would ride seal and not salcon. (remember me asking you to do a case study between these 2 S? :P)

( I cannot sweat ah? Weather so hot leh......... :P)

LOL! I read no Chinese. *sweat*

*sweat*

Ah Connie ah, like this cannot one. :P

Ok la, I assume for you.

You would like at Bonnie's profits.
Make sure here profits is growing and growing.
You want to own a business which is growing...

Then, you meet this guy, called Donnie.
Now Donnie is one shrewd bugger.
Donnie discovered something really, really sexy about Bonnie's business.

Besides the profits growing, Donnie noticed one incredible thing about Bonnie's business.
Maybe Bonnie is a ferocious business woman...
No matter what, Donnie discovered that Bonnie business is actually a goldmine!!!!
Donnie looked at the Bonnie's piggy bank.
The piggy bank money keeps growing and growing.
Start of the year, her bank statement showed 100k.
9 months later, her bank statement showed 210k!
Borrowings is almost negligible.

Now, tell me....
should Ah Connie buys Bonnie's business after the advice given to her by Donnie?

*whistle*

*horrors*

Look, you just cannot be so violent... ok?

:P

Let me ask you simple question.

Let's say Bonnie have this business.
It's a knife making business. ( LOL! Sure you very interested now)
Bonnie persuades you to be a shareholder of her business.

How would gauge Bonnie's knife making business?

Connie: lol.

I know.
After posting that, I peeped into the previous page.
Horrors!
I saw.
lol

So ever wonder why that seal is so damn geng? :P

Maybe that was not a smart post. Lol

Ah connie now also naughty!!!

:lol:

LOL!!

I shall get my Kompang ready then. :)

I am not here already.

LOL!!!!

Duit: LOL! I only know how to talk 3 talk 4 saje. :)

connie:

LOL!

Guilty yet again.................. I surrender.

connie: your blog got so many lalat.

*whistle*

Fitters? there's not much to look is there?

no volume, no action.
no action, no money...
no ....., no ........ (better leave it as dots... lol)

No volume and the stock is flat lining.... into a coma.

All you want to pray for is for volume to come.

Fundie side: problem with fitter it is rojak.
Too diversified.
Hands into many business but surprisingly, main bulk of money comes from property.

There lies the problem.
It's listed in the Trading/Services sector but makes the money mostly from their property division.
Which is why Fitters don't attract much local funds.
And to make matters worse, there's hardly any research coverage.
No research house to give it whacky Target Price for punters to drool upon.

So who's going to drive the stock higher?

Any chef with any flying wok around to goreng Fitters higher?

This is why despite Fitters better than average fundamentals, the stock is lalat.........

*sweat*

seph: don't worry.

Me always chill one.

Nowadays whether so hot, no chill, sure die one. LOL!

seph: haiyoo... that's Sona actual chart ma. I only drew that one blue line.

This is what I see in Sona.

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2902/14322592020_0fba8ec2b5_b.jpg

https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5512/14505853921_e587f2005e_b.jpg

LOL! Just a whistle only.

I understand here on i3, there's a lot of Datasonic fansi. :)

I have left enough hints and I seriously think better I not rock the boat anymore. hehe.

connie: lol

On today's report:

Datasonic yesterday proposed to acquire 30% of Fuelsubs House SB
(FHSB) for MYR10m, subject to the latter securing the mandate to
manage the national fuel subsidy program. This confirms previous
media speculation and comes as a positive surprise to us. Upgrade to
BUY (from Neutral), FV raised to MYR2.50 (from MYR2.04) as we factor
in potential earnings contributions from this contract come FY16F.
.
.
.
Earnings accretion. If this program can save the Government as much
as MYR9.8bn per annum, as reported by the media, we expect FHSB to
be paid at least 2-3% of the potential savings. Pegging a net margin of 40% to potential annual revenues of MYR200m-MYR300m, we estimate
that the fuel subsidy program, if it materializes, could bring in an
additional MYR24m-MYR36m to Datasonic’s bottomline on a full-year
basis. With that, we upgrade our FY16F earnings estimate by 22.9% to
MYR135m. Our FY15F forecasts are left unchanged for now, pending
official award of the contract, which will give better clarity on the
implementation timeline.

Upgrade to BUY. Overall, we are positive on the announcement and
upgrade our call to BUY. Our FV now stands at MYR2.50, at an
unchanged FY16F P/E of 25.0x, following our earnings revision. As we
believe the announcement will fuel positive sentiment, we foresee a
potential re-rating in its share price over the near term.


Just because of this media speculation caused RHB to increase Dsonic FV by 46 sen.

In simple perspective.

Dsonic has 1.37 billion shares today.

Multiple it by 46 sen, RHB reckons that Dsonic should be worth some 621 million more as a company.

Making Datasonic worth 3.4 billion ringgit.

So terror geng or what!

*whistle*

Dearest Connie.

Can Ah Boon be very sacrastic and naughty once more.

LOL! LOL! :P

RHB Research or OSK Research is full of ketam on Dsonic.

Yesterday report:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/54866.jsp

Maintain NEUTRAL. Although it is too early to quantify the potential earnings accretion from these initiatives, we like Datasonic’s chances of securing them should the Government decide to roll them out, given the company’s success in implementing the latest version of MyKad. We think this could provide room for another re-rating. Retain NEUTRAL call for now, with FV unchanged at MYR2.04, based on a 25.0x FY16 P/E.

Morning connie. :)

morning newbie: morning is good. :)

Seal went gap again with selling dominating....

*cough* *cough*

connie: Apparently S is so much in favor.

First we had the two sweet S - Salcon and Seal.

Upcoming Ss - Seacera and Sealink.

Dark horse S - SCH?

:P

jj: you could see the descending triangle breakout average of 47% upside.

* I personally don't use such mathematical stuff *

2n2s: LOL!

pig climbing up the tree?

duh! :P

Well or you could believe the chart.

Once the volume comes and the action starts...
err... hippo could very well jump over the fence at 280.

hohoho!

:)

connie: don't you reckon you need to get a fly swatter for your blog?

*whistle*

2noob2stupid: Damn cool la your nick! Love it!

The next reporting quarters SHOULD see continued good earnings for plantation stocks, more so, GIVEN THE FACT, these upcoming profit numbers will be compared to relatively shitty profit numbers posted by plantation companies a year ago.

So if you ask me, comparisons will be relatively meaningless.

But then... the media... LOL!

It's the stock market man!

You gotta have feel good news. :)

Hence, most coverages will make these stocks more sexy and seductive (ah the two S's. lol!) than it really is.

And for the matter of FACT also, current share prices for the plantation stocks aren't exactly low.

And also for the matter of fact, best laid out example, is probably JTiasa.

Yes, the most over rated and hyped out plantation stock.

You read the same article in blogs like Dali's and you get the same promotion plastered over and over here in I3.

One person selling the idea for the stock like selling curry puff in the street.

Such an overkill (sorry for my blunt remark).

No matter how bright the recovery or turnaround, JTiasa's current profits is only around 54 million which equates to a measly 5 sen eps.

Duh! Duh! and more duh!

At 251, Jtiasa is selling at a crazy and insane earnings multiples of 44 times!

Well, it works wonders when one promotes and promotes and promotes the stock like crazy and needless to say, the followers who just follows.

Is it power to the internet?

No.

Such games is played closed to 100 years ago in the US markets.

Market players just love tips and more tips.

To receive a tip is a blessing.

LOL!

Having said all that...
remember it's the stock market.
anything can and will happen.
and yes, the lembu can actually jump over the moon!

connie: Ooops..... !!! Soweeee..... Ah Boon is being Ah Boon again.

LOL! Naughty naughty naughty bugger!

So this morning got any tipsy for me or not? :)

Woah.... morning is good connie! :)

morning ct!