But every time I eat I eat at wrong price T.T no luck la me ahhhhhh always eat leftovers then new fresh hot ones come out and I'm full -_-

Am i right to say even 'the person' wants to absorb at lower price?? no one wants to buy high right?? But who that 'person' is, he sure have deep pocket even deeper than volcano's hole

Pruce may go lower tmr based on the parallel strength of RSI, Volume and Price movement for past few days.. Support at 29 cents.. Hope dont fall anymore T^T

I think the best way to learn from the past winners is to study what has occured during their breakout, their news, and their FA. 4% of 1000 stocks in KLSE can do that. half of them are untraded. So that makes around 6-8% of chances to hit an impressive stock. But also we must bear in mind it is a bull year and we cant expect that to happen again and again.

Anyone has any ideas on how the stocks have similarities?? Im checking on the TA and see is there any clues.

Lol strategist, soon < later wow means means means longer lorrrrr

aiya hepitrade I also wan intro the Adam khoo de hahaha good book and very nice but quite basic.. another book I would like to recommend is The New Buffetology very good good book for FA..

asamlaksa, good advise given thanks..market discount soon as CNY is nearing buy hopefully tmr index is green but I haven't check the chart yet.. yeap xdl close 33% lower I think a lot people kena burn..whenever right issue is coming, some party go push it very high and sell down.. I kena once before lol.. so never buy a stock when near their ex date..lesson learned..hope invest1818 never entered

Need bigger appetite to support the throwings... The director damn aggresive in disposing

Looiks means cannot settle before cny ah? Okok notedddd

Hayashi RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN HOLD MY HANDDDDDDDDD

Below 30? Eeeeeeeeee

Yeap the sense of responsibility in Liew is indeed very good..He never let's emotion gets over his decision and responsibility and that's why he is a good leader and just by amount of employees and people leaving with him, it as already shown how great of a leader he is..its not easy to build respect in people but he can. And that's the reason why when sp setia is in his hand, he can win countless awards continously..

Morning Mr.Ooi, Thank you very much for the guidance..! Hopefully sbcc will be one of the good picks in 2014 despite heavy curbing on property..Thanks again for your willingness to spend time to help me and people in the forum..Cheers!

Lets have a great day tmr everyone, there is a doji on the fibonacci retracement or 38.2% at 30.5 cents. Lets hope it will rebounce tmr. Good night Sumatarian!

Oh ya, i just keep reading books and see how they interpret. Like FA, even TA chartist interpret things differently altho it is the same pattern and same name. Some may view volume as important some may not. Some may say one of the double bottom must be lower than the another one. I think at last also come back to ourselves. How we fish.. You also must share how u get 30-40% and above with us? How can u screen so many stocks and choose which one is good??

Hi chinesetea, im still a newbie >< scare not so reliable. sometimes may go wrong oso. technical and fundamental is like an art. Both are different from everyone's view. Hope my art wont turn ugly hahaa. waaa different timezone? means u are somewhere in the western side i presume? Syok nyeeeeerr.. ya unclez also havent post since the last post in 13/1/2014. Never seen him comment anything in i3 also.

Hi invest1818, i have checked on the fundamentals of MARCO, it is like u said. it is awesome. If i did not interpret it correctly debt to equity ratio is 0 which is good because no long term debt.
And its ability to pay interest is 151.6 times which is very good. i would give a tp of 20-25 cents based on its cash flow growth. But it is just an indicator as kcc said this is flawed. im still reading up books on using different ways to value a company.

sorry, non current liability.. btw Thanks invest!

As i suspected, and i cant find any non current assets also.. This is new knowledge to me..

invest1818, i wanna ask a stupid question lol.. why Marco no cost of good sold wan.. is the COGS the purchase of finished product?

chinesetea, looking at Destini, today it rebounded at the Fibonacci retracement of 48 cents. But since today KLCI rebounded, this gain may be due to market sentiment. Hopefully it will be able to sustain the momentum as today's volume is higher than yday which bring both volume and price up in same direction. It is above 20 days and 50 days MA, MACD and Parabolic showed positive sign.
I bliff the next breakout with a huge cup with handle will occur if volumes are high and break above 58.5 cents. For those that may scare today's momentum cant maintain, can wait for breakout. But its still far away.

Aiya tmr cant ;( okok can will ask u in forum when i am able to come over for your talk according to your date. Thanks Mr. Ooi for your speedy responses!

asamlaksa, the QLC stock really geng.. the uptrend even beat Dsonic and MYEG.. till today also keep up.. HLCAP one tick 10-40 cents.. gila..

invest1818, based on the chart, it has just broke out from sideways and with a volume of 2x above average. But this one super penny stock oh.. im looking at the fundamentals now hehe

wa chinesetea, crony stock wow.. macam dangerous.. but ur pick is always good man!

Is that the amount called Balance Carried Forward?? at the btm of Cash Flow from Investing Activities?

Hi Mr. Ooi, i am doing this valuation yday and do you mind to guide me how u obtain free cash flow as in the numbers and parts where u take from? Thank you very much.

Hi kcc, thanks for the advise. Yes i realized that a company growing at a rate of 12% is consider a booming company according to Graham and after 7 years he told it is advisable to reduce it to growth of 7%.
SBCCorp CAR return for past few years is 20%. Actually i reduced it to 15% to be conservative and still it is high i believe.

For the 20% discount rate, i use it to actually discount it back to try and find stock which has this ability to tank such amount of discount rate. If i apply the Malaysian bond rate which is 4%, the intrinsic value would be too high and i would not hope that i only get a meager 4% return in market if i can get the same return for risk free investment.

I did not wan to use Free Cash Flow was also partly because it wipes out the operation profit ability of the company. Free Cash flow is only available after the company considered whether to use the cash or not to use the cash. If the company plans to use the cash, and depending on the amount, it actually wipes out what the operating activities can show. Free cash flow is a good indicator to show how the company is managing the money on whether they keep on using it up or not but to gauge the ability of the companies' operating ability thru free cash flow, it would give volatile numbers depending on the company's management and investment opportunities.

I guess there is still long way for me to go. Based on what you wrote, it seems different companies have different ways to valuate. How long you took to achieve the feat u are today kcc? Thanks

Hi everyone sorry I disappeared a while to do some stuff..BTW pjd like asam said roe and roa is below the bench mark therefore I would not suggest it..there are other property counter which is better like sbccorp.. I am still grinding my fundamentals checking so I wouldn't want to give advice so much T.T asking kcc bout my research and improvise..sorry I can't contribute much :(

Your

Lol yk hahaha I love or positiveness!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA looiks and strategist u 2 like kids la u sure u both is old man? Doesn't seem like old to me Hahaha

I take the sum of all discounted value from now to ten years later and then divide them by the sharesoutstanding to get the intrinsic value. As im having trouble sorting out which should i use for forecasting growth, i am confused on whether to use profit before taxation, free cash flow, net cash from/(for) operating activities/balance carried forward, cash flow from operation, or operating profit as the number. Please kindly advise meeeee.

Hi yes, so i am using the the operating profit before working capital of 41m. Then with their past cashflow growth from 2008-2013, it works out to be at a compounded annual rate of 20% pa. So i forecast the next 10 years using growth rate of 15% to be conservative and then discount them back using a discount rate of 20%. This words out to be Rm2.09 with a MOS of around 40%. And should i use free cash flow instead of operating profit before working capital? But if i use free cash flow, it will be severely depressed on the year the company use it to acquire big assets. Thanks..

This week sleep again zzzzz

Hi kcc, can i ask you a favour? i have been calculating SBC's intrinsic value and i find it deeply discounted.. i am using operating cashflow over the years and also free cash flow for some calculation. However i worry i might use the wrong numbers.. do you mind if i ask you to guide me a lil bit?

Keywords from the articles: With my children all growing up and starting out on their own career paths, I am looking forward to spending more time with them, MENTORING AND GUIDING THEM,” said Liew.

derrick, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO what i did is not predicting the market noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo its just calculation to calculate the value of money onlyyyyyyyyyyyyyy dont misunderstand eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
I do not have the ability to predict the market at all..

Thanks It54, just helping out only haha
mmk79, for 10 years, we are actually borrowing a loan from bank which is needed to be paid fully at the end of 10 years.
In order to find the value of the loan in today's value from 10 years in the future, we use the formula PV = 147,000[1/(1+0.05)^10] = 90,245. This will allow us to see whether or not the loan we borrow will benefit us. Many bank's have a package whereby they offer nice dividend yearly with 100k initial payment. When u use the discounting method, we are actually getting less than what we pay for. So by using this Time Value of Money formula, we are able to see are we getting less for what we pay or getting more for what we pay for..

Welcome hayashi..hope it helpss. .
Mmk, I use the total amount that is needed to be paid at the end of the loan period and discount it to present value using inflation rate..

Strategist must have disclaimer hehe disclaimer eeeeeeeeee

hayashi, my opinion is that its better to pay the minimum and loan the maximum if its your first and second house. If you pay downpayment more than 10% for your first and second house, you lose the advantage of getting 90% loan. I would keep the money i have now and pay more deposit for my third house because third house compulsory 30% downpayment.
But this is just my point of view, u can take it but its best not to decide base on it because they are others who might have a better and more constructive ideas.

AiryA, in banking industry, raising interest rate will not make more profit for the bank. They make money via more deposit base and not from charging high interest rate. Banks make money by borrowing money from people via deposits, and loan the money out to people. The bigger the customer base, the bigger the deposit base and then the bigger their loan base which leads to more profit. So interest rate does not cause banks to make or lose more money.

This is the corrected version.

So 1st, to borrow loan, its better to stretch as long as possible because a) lower monthly payment b) inflation will do the job for you c) interest deductibility is good money d) lower monthly payment allows u to have positive gearing instead of negative gearing.

Scenario A: if u borrow 10 years at 90% loan, assuming IR of 6.6% (which is very high compared to current rate of 4.2 to 5%), u will need to pay monthly payment of Rm1231 per house which means every month, u will lose Rm962 every month after deducting rental and this is called negative gearing.

Scenario B: if u borrow 10 years and pay 60k for each house means you only borrow loan of 50% which is Rm60k per house. Having 120k loan for 10 years will make you pay Rm1368 for both house means you will have a profit or Rm132 monthly which is positive gearing. (So you ask yourself are u willing to forego 120k for a mere profit of Rm132 month?? I would not)

Scenario C: if you borrow 35 Years maximum at 90%, you will need to pay Rm659 per month which nets u Rm410 for both houses [(Rm750-Rm659) x 2) and this is positive gearing. You still get to keep Rm98k and still have a positive income coming into your pocket at Rm182.

Scenario D: if you borrow 35 Years with a 50% loan, you will need to pay Rm733 monthly which a net gain of Rm767 after deducting your rental. (So ask yourself are u willing to forego Rm120k cash for a monthly positive rental income of Rm767???)

So let us see the difference of payment between 10 years and 35 years at 90% loan.
10 years you pay a total of Rm147k and 35 years you pay Rm277k. WOW thats a huge difference!
Lets discount them to present value using inflation rate of 5% for one house to make it easier.
So for 10 years, you are paying at a present value of Rm90k
For 35 years, you are paying at a present value of Rm50k
See the difference now? it is better to stretch a loan longer because it allows inflation to work for u. This does not include interest deductibility.

So it depends on whether you would prefer to have cash of 98k (assuming u borrow loan 90% for both 1st and 2nd house. 3rd house only can borrow 70%). If u pay using cash Rm120k, you will miss opportunity of a better return if suddenly it comes. Having cash in hand is always the best.

There are also advantages to fully settle your loan early as it increases your home equity and allows you to refinance more if you settle more earlier. But bear in mind that it is very illiquid and it may take up to 6 month - 1 year depending on cases before you receive your refinance money.

And actually your option of buying one house and paying it with rental to other house will actually bring you back to the same situation of paying 60k for each of the house. Bear in mind that the lower the amount you loan from the bank, the higher the interest rate it will be. IF you wan to have the best interest rate, you must loan the best amount.

All the top calculation are assumed and as interest rates changes from time to time, it is just a guideline for example. Please seek your own professional advisor hahahah I try my best to compute the calculation and advises and if they are any mistakes please forgive me. Hope it helps =)

eric, i doubt so in near future will raise altho some may predict it will.. hopefully not as it will hamper the market as loan are more expensive to borrow..property has already alot of curbing, if they increase interest rate, the loan side will be hampered much more.. but interest rate increase nvm its deductible, but im not sure are there specific amount or not as limit.. huhu still need to read up more on tax..

eric, true what u said.. hahaha maybe they will raise.. but if raise then market will slow down le..

Hayashi, ok using time value of money, lets say u borrow 1m as loan to make it easy.
So lets say u borrow 25 years worth of loan according to current BLR - 2.4% which is 4.2%. so you paid total at the end of 25 years is 2.797m.
Then now, u discount it to current year using inflation percent which is lets say 5% and you get 0.825m which is actually lower than 1m loan that u borrowed.
This does not include the interest rate which is deductible if you rent your house. So lets say you paid cash 1m to make it easier, you are actually foregoing that 1m cash along with the interest deductibility and opportunity cost which could be invested elsewhere that may provide you a better return.

okie thanksss strategistttttt.. ;D

strategist, of coz la xD tax is one of the most jialat thing le..if can master it, can play around and save lots of money hahaha anything that save and gain money i am willing to spend time and learn muahaha

strategist got smth to ask =p where to get vwap for any stocks in KLSE??

eric for property right, i learned some new skills last time.. its better to borrow loan than use cash to buy.. When u work out the calculation using Time Value of Money, you are actually paying lesser than what the bank loan u hehe.. On top of that from tax perspective, you can even use the interest as deductible expenses provided that you submit income tax for the rent..

YK, next next week la bro.. Q result coming out in Feb hehe.e..e.e.e....