Thank you
-----------
Ehome009 Very well written.
14/05/2020 4:18 PM

Investee, I m sorry. I don't quite understand the below

Actually it is whether 1.87b or 468m. JAKS' equity contribution is 25% x 1.87b x 30% stake = 140m. PB ascribing 82m (RM329/4) is weird but maybe not so big difference as presented here.


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Investee Hey DK66, u have my respect. This is just for argument sake. Ignore me if this is too noob question.

Actually it is whether 1.87b or 468m. JAKS' equity contribution is 25% x 1.87b x 30% stake = 140m. PB ascribing 82m (RM329/4) is weird but maybe not so big difference as presented here.

The logic is Vietnam will give fixed capacity charge to cover fixed principal repayment and interest expense. The leftover for equity holder (EBITDA - principal repayment - interest) is really 12% Return on Invest Equity. That's why we need to compare Invested Equity to leftover for equity holder.

Refer:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-04-29-story204...

"The Capacity Charge is a fixed payment that is paid each period for each kilowatt of available (not dispatched) capacity. It includes fixed charges involved in the construction, operation, and maintenance of the power plant, including charges for: – Repayment of the principal and interest of the debt used to construct the facility – Return on equity capital invested..... bla bla bla~"

Therefore, capacity charge is for return invested equity after netting of mainly principal repayment and interest.
14/05/2020 3:51 PM

Sorry for the rough work

Done!

Jaks Resources - FCFE derived by Public Investment Bank
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-14-story-h1507032344-Jaks_Resources_FCFE_derived_by_Public_Investment_Bank.jsp

Thanks for your support. Ok, I will do it tonight using EXCEL. It won't take long.
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Ehome009 DK66,
We are fact based talking and substantiate with data, do not mind those naysayers who simply lambast baselessly. I look forward to your next article which incorporates my discovery.
14/05/2020 3:26 PM

johnmasino DK66:- LOL..Ignore those useless, lowlife scumbag speculators who create multiple IDs to attack others and spread fear! If you let them determine what you do here, they have already won! Just ignore these clowns! Cheers!
14/05/2020 3:27 PM

FCFE = Free cash flow to Equity

It is not whether it is based on 1.87b or 468m, it is the free cash flow derived by PBB to be RM327m to Jaks. You need to ask PBB how it derived its FCF.

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Investee Forgive me. Why do we always assume FCFE = 12% of U$1.87b instead of the 12% of U$468m (i.e. 25% of 1.87b)? Take note that this is FCFE, not FCF.

Let me think whether it is necessary. I scared later kena over promotion curse again
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johnmasino DK66:- Perhaps you should put your thoughts on EHome's findings in an article. Thanks!
14/05/2020 3:13 PM

PBB has forecasted the annual free cash flow from JHDP to Jaks to be RM327m. There are several way to value such cash flow.

One way is derived the estimated profit like what been done by Ehome009 in "Flaw in the computation of JHDP profit by PBB vs My Calculation"

The other way is to calculate the NPV of the cash flows using an appropriate discount rate. A reasonable rate would be 10% +/-

Another way is to find out the IRR and compare to the threshold rate.

These are the renowned valuation method for evaluation of a stable future cash flows which are also employed by investors of large power plant projects.

NPV calculation can be easily done in minutes using excel.

=NPV(0.10,A1:A25)/651

329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
= $4.59 per share

NPV calculation can be easily done in minutes using excel.

=NPV(0.10,A1:A25)/651

329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
329
$4.59

I have calculated the NPV of the FCF of RM329m for 25 years using 10% discount rate, and arrived at RM4.59 valuation per share for JHDP

I have calculated the NPV of the FCF of RM329m for 25 years using 10% discount rate, and arrived at RM4.59 valuation per share for JHDP

PBB used to value JHDP using SOP method. Now they are looking into future cash flow. This means they are now considering future earnings of JHDP as they know the power plant will commence operation soon.

Ehome009, Your link to PBB's report is not working. I place it here.

http://www.bursamarketplace.com/mkt/tools/research/ch=research&pg=research&ac=956553&bb=973383

Ehome009, I believe PBB will look at your article seriously and review their calculations in due course. They could have inadvertently left out the multiplier for the annual FCFE.

Public bank's RM0.48 per share is slightly incorrect as the number of shares should be 651m. Therefore should be 329m /651m = RM0.50. However, this is assuming 1x cash flow value. JHDP is expected to generate such annual cash flow over 25 years

Ehome009, Thanks for sharing your discovery.

You are right to point out that the FCFE arrived by PBB actually refers to annual free cash flow discounted at 12%. 30% of the FCFE represents the annual portion attributable to Jaks.

PBB's calculation of JHDP's worth to Jaks is by dividing the RM329m annual FCFE by the number of shares. Such calculation is assuming that Jaks is only worth 1x the annual cash flow from JHDP (something like 1x PE). This is not reasonable.

-----------------------
Ehome009 Flaw in the computation of JHDP profit by PBB vs My Calculation

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ehome009/2020-05-14-story-h150703216...
14/05/2020 1:40 PM

You are right to point out that the FCFE arrived by PBB actually refers to annual free cash flow discounted at 12%. 30% of the FCFE represents the annual portion attributable to Jaks.

PBB's calculation of JHDP's worth to Jaks is by dividing the RM329m annual FCFE by the number of shares. Such calculation is assuming that Jaks is only worth 1x the annual cash flow from JHDP (something like 1x PE). This is not reasonable.

非常明白
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Aseng 我有时也不快乐的。。。
我的老婆每天要我跟着她的要求过日子
很辛苦的。。。。。
cin-cai, cin-cai 就 好 啦。。。。。

You are right. I already have enough to retire. Happiness is more important now.
-------------------
OTB Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 12:15 PM | Report Abuse

哈哈，快快乐乐又一天
没赚到钱， 赚点快乐也好嘛。。。。
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You are so rich already, no need to make a lot of money.
Be happy is the most important thing you enjoy in your life now.
Thank you.
14/05/2020 12:21 PM

哈哈，快快乐乐又一天
没赚到钱， 赚点快乐也好嘛。。。。

Shan Kee Tiow, 我不排除他们喜欢吃鸵鸟。（买便宜货）

鸵鸟的头为什么会被砍 ？ 因为它把头埋在土里。被谁砍了也不知道。

Shan Kee Tiow, 好的。谢谢您的忠告。
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Shan Kee Tiow DK66
genting，tenaga，pbb，klk等大公司能有今天你以为都是这些喷子的功劳吗？我说是他们觉得能涨然后他们喊涨之所以涨，他们的嘴巴非常厉害这种话，请问你们有谁会相信吗？我自己都不相信，这些能有今天，哪间不是因为生意越做越大，盈利越来越高。最近手套股口罩股能涨都是因为他们眼光准？肯定不是，是因为大家都知道covid 19需要大量的手套和口罩，当然是因为他们看到这类公司会大赚瘟疫财然后股票随着大涨的关系。何为炒股？那就是小公司才容易被炒，只有这类公司才容易被嘴巴喊起就起，他们的嘴巴有没有那么厉害，我不知道，但我知道公司的价值取决于公司的生意，不然云顶这类博弈酒等的公司早30年都被回教党喊倒了。我觉得没必要去理会他们，你只要专心研究就好，他们爱怎么说就让他们怎么说，心情愉快最重要，你越高兴他们越伤心
14/05/2020 11:38 AM

Some ostriches' heads got chopped off just now but not by the farmer.

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Invest_168 Who sold at 1.04 this morning? A lot of ppl want to buy it when there is discount.
14/05/2020 11:16 AM

New IDs are created everyday.....

Noted. Thank you
----------------
Shan Kee Tiow dk66
无论在Google用英文和中文都找不到真正的新闻，你可以用这个Dự án Nhiệt điện Hải Dương 去Google找更多的资料
14/05/2020 10:22 AM

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 14, 2020 12:20 AM | Report Abuse

Dear All,

From now on, I will keep posting this remark to remind you that you may seek my comment if you wish to clarify what you read in this forum no matter how stupid they are. I will not be responding to comments here unless requested by sincere readers.

I trust most readers here are able to differentiate for themselves comments that are reliable from those that are ridiculous. If you are not sure, ask.

Thank you.

P/S Aseng may help to post this remark frequently. TQ

Shan Kee Tiow, thanks for the information. It looks like grid synchronisation will happen anytime.

-----------------------------
Shan Kee Tiow

At the same time, he actively urged ministries, branches and localities on the policy of changing purposes and planting alternative forests to ensure the progress of the 500 kV line connected in June 2020. Particularly, the 220 kV transmission line project connected to Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant has completed section 4 circuits (about 1 km) to synchronize unit 1 of Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant.
14/05/2020 9:59 AM

Dear All,

From now on, I will keep posting this remark to remind you that you may seek my comment if you wish to clarify what you read in this forum no matter how stupid they are. I will not be responding to comments here unless requested by sincere readers.

I trust most readers here are able to differentiate for themselves comments that are reliable from those that are ridiculous. If you are not sure, ask.

Thank you.

P/S Aseng may help to post this remark frequently. TQ

-------------------------------------------------
Posted by kcchongnz

DK, there are all sorts of people in a public forum. Don't expect everyone is nice. Some are extremely nasty. Now I only realize people like qqq3 is relatively not so bad. These nasty people even dig through what you have shared many years ago, 6, 7 years ago, just to find something to discredit you and make you look bad. I could not imagine it even happen to such a nice man and a great contributor in i3investor like you.

Well, what I can say is you have the choice. If you still wish to share because you like to, just do it and ignore those people, and don't waste time on it.
People like us would immediate know from what you write that you are a good man. It is not difficult to read those comments and know who those haters are. I also mongchacha why they behave as such.

So, be happy. That should be your choice.
13/05/2020 11:29 PM

KC,
Thank for your advice. It would be irresponsible for me not to complete my journey in Jaks with i3 readers who might have followed my articles.

I will consider again after Jaks.

Thank you.
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kcchongnz
DK, there are all sorts of people in a public forum. Don't expect everyone is nice. Some are extremely nasty. Now I only realize people like qqq3 is relatively not so bad. These nasty people even dig through what you have shared many years ago, 6, 7 years ago, just to find something to discredit you and make you look bad. I could not imagine it even happen to such a nice man and a great contributor in i3investor like you.

Well, what I can say is you have the choice. If you still wish to share because you like to, just do it and ignore those people, and don't waste time on it.
People like us would immediate know from what you write that you are a good man. It is not difficult to read those comments and know who those haters are. I also mongchacha why they behave as such.

So, be happy. That should be your choice.

popo92, you are welcome and thanks for the compliments.

You are right, it is not easy to carry out thorough studies without accounting and financial knowledge. You need to know the regulations on merger and acquisitions. Otherwise, you will not be able to engage with confidence. Any mistake could cost you dearly. You also need to be able to see through the deal to gauge the opportunity.

This is the same to jaks. I have to get it right with my earnings forecast for JHDP. With the relative valuation provided by Vinh Tan 1. I have more confidence than ever to hold til revelation. In fact, I have done further analysis on Vinh Tan 1's results and found that there is further upside to its earnings. However, I do not want to complicate the matter further. The relative valuation I have done is good enough for now.

Thank you.

That is great. Thanks
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Ehome009 DK66, thanks for your speedy reply and valuable inputs, I will blog it and share it here in a day or two.
13/05/2020 8:55 PM

Ehome009, I have replied. Your observation is correct. Please share with the readers here your discovery. Thanks

Yes, I m looking at it
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Ehome009 Hi DK66, I have just sent u an email about some observations in the research report by PBB dated 28-2-2020. Would appreciate if you could provide some feedback. Thanks.
13/05/2020 7:45 PM

What I have been doing for the past 2 and half years was trying to evaluate the potential of JHDP.

Johnmasino, the video means not much to me. I m a stock picker and most of the time only invest in 1 stock or 2 at the most. I don't time market and I m very aggressive when there is a huge margin of safety. My stock pick focus on stocks which is in the process of transformation or to be taken private or restructured. Poor market sentiment helps me to buy at lower prices. I believe if I can correctly evaluate the outcome of the events or corporate exercises, I can make a handsome profit.

Anyway, Thanks for sharing the video

Aseng, not difficult. See today qqq3 sold off glove already. He is coming to Jaks tomorrow.

For a moment, I thought I m in the wrong forum. Why everyone talked about other stocks here ? Other forums got tigers ? Dare not go ? On second thought, it is good to keep this forum warm, otherwise, not many will notice Jaks and my articles. I quickly take this opportunity to promote my article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Aseng, it is my turn to watch movies. You have to defend Jaks against comments like Evolve mall will be written down to ZERO book value or Jaks is going bankrupt

Aseng, good interpretation

Samuel Devadasan, you are welcome.

I need to post the comment here to update the reader of this article.

Note that Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP will be adopting the same accounting treatment of their power plant assets. This enhances the comparability of Vinh Tan 1 to JHDP.

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 12, 2020 1:29 PM | Report Abuse

Dear All,

Even though the american owner of Mong Duong II has adopted the new accounting standard ASC606, this is not happening to JHDP. JHDP will adopt the same accounting standard as Vinh Tan 1.

I wish to express my deepest appreciation to Mr OTB for his assistance in getting the confirmation from the Vietnam auditor. Thank you

---------------------------

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 8, 2020 11:47 AM | Report Abuse

DK66 I am accountant, I know accounting treatment can have profound effect on the reporting of earnings especially when dealing with a transaction which spans as long as 25 years. Mong Dong II started operation in April 2015 and has written back as much USD203m when it adopted the new accounting standard in 2018 with USD40m increase in profit in 2018 alone as a result of change in accounting treatment.

Vinh Tan 1 is still using the old accounting standard. If JHDP is adopting the new accounting standard, It may be reporting higher profit than Vinh Tan 1.
08/05/2020 10:17 AM

Dear KC Chong,

I m proud to be named by you but calling me a financial expert in IPP is too highly of me.

Just recently, I realised that it is quite a burden to be relied upon. I3 is full of unreasonable attackers. Some of the good writers named may have quit for this reason.

I wish i3 could be a better place.

I wish you all the best with your publication.

Thank you

Michaelwong, I appreciate your acknowledgement of my effort. Thank you

qqq3, you won't be happy with so much hatred in your heart

qqq3, you should take a look at yourself in the mirror. Look at the way you talked. You have been talking all day long. Aren't you tired ?

qqq3, you should have bought when you had the opportunity. Now is too late to talk it down to buy cheap.

Ken Lim and Davidleong, You are welcome