Vinh Tan 1 = 越南永新一期电力有限公司

Probability, the minority interest refers specifically and solely to vinh tan 1

Probability, thanks for your "like"

Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

The fact is they are including the interest cost for calculation to establish the desired IRR to compare against the hurdle rate of 10%

Page 21 (summary 9)
https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

You notice that the Presumptions used in calculation the IRR include allowance for borrowing costs.

I m in the middle of my next article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"

Meanwhile, icon8888 may like to take out the borrowing costs and determine the return. I m sure the return will look miserable and not feasible for investment.

Probabilty, I shall prove my point later. I m in the middle of my next article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"

popo92, you may like to read this

Jaks Resources – Peer Comparison With Mong Duong II
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-04-29-story204451-Jaks_Resources_Peer_Comparison_With_Mong_Duong_II.jsp

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popo92 DK66 sifu, this IFRIC 12 is actually introduced on 2008, but it doesn't adopted since lately years. So far i have not seen any BOT concession is still using straight-line method. Thank you for pointing out power plant asset cannot be recognised as concession asset under new international accounting standard. i didn't acknowledge that, could you send me any useful links for me to read? thank you

Project IRR always work on net cash flow basis in so far as the investment capital of the company is concerned. However, the equity portion of the capital shall not attract interest component as it represents shareholders' equity injection.

Project IRR return represents net return from the project and shall be used to weigh against risks for decision making. As borrowing costs represents part of the cost of investment, it is dangerous not to have considered the interest cost before making final investment decision.

Mong duong II and vinh Tan 1 reported profit immediately upon COD

icon8888, the loan tenure should be 18 years which is maximum allowed by the vietnam government. This is why vinh tan 1 cited 18 years to fully pay off all debts.

Icon8888 is right to include interest expense as Project IRR is working on Net cash flow based on the planned debt equity structure.

On depreciation, there is no clear indication that reducing balance method of amortisation should be used. Straight line method is still most widely adopted

"The most appropriate method of amortisation of the intangible asset is usually the straight-line method, unless another method better reflects the pattern of consumption of the asset’s future economic benefits. However, in some circumstances, where the expected pattern of consumption of the expected economic benefi ts is based on usage, it may be appropriate to use an alternative method of amortisation." - IFRIC 12

In any case, the new international accounting standard will not allow power plant asset to be recognised as "concession asset" anymore. The asset shall be recorded as Loan receivables and repayment will more or less reflect a straight line pattern.

Icon8888, Well done. A very detailed analysis using IRR.

However, I wish to point out that the 25 years concession begins after COD, not including construction period.

------------------
(Depreciation Charges)
Based on depreciation period of 22 years (25 years concession, 3 years construction, 22 years operation), annual depreciation charges is RM340 mil.

Great ! I lunch first
----------------

Icon8888 two more hours should be done
01/05/2020 12:12 PM

WOW ! When can I expect your article ? Can't wait much longer ......

--------------------------
Icon8888 thanks DK66

I am making good progress on my article

it has information that you have never seen before (meaning I am not warming up cold fried rice for you to eat)

and it jibes very well with profit projection of RM200 mil to RM300 mil per annum (comes out naturally without me massaging the figures)

in other words, it support the arguments that profit can be RM200 mil to RM300 mil per annum (for the 30% stake)
01/05/2020 12:05 PM

Vinh Tan 1 opted to pay 10% tax in 2018 where the power plant achieved full COD in Nov

tax free for 1st 4 years, 5% for subsequent 9 years and thereafter 10%
-------------------
Icon8888 DK66 does Hai Duong need to pay tax ?
01/05/2020 11:36 AM

Dear BlessedInvestor, I can't find any update on the power plant at the moment
--------------------
BlessedInvestor Dear DK66, any update on the COD? The most important catalyst to move a stock price is the growth in future earnings... for Jaks is its power plant. Its local business may not be material anymore once its power plant is operational and generating income.

Sniper123, I do not expect the LAD to continue beyond 2020. Once completed, the unsold units can be offered at very attractive prices to provide additional cash flow. Jaks will be cash rich once the power plant commences operation. There will be no need for further cash calls.

My knowledge is targeted at its power plant in Vietnam. Do not expect me to have insider's information. It will do you no good if I speculated too much on things beyond my knowledge.

So, yes, please ask Andy during the coming AGM if you wish to know more.

---------------------
sniper123 DK66 as u mention earlier dat d LAD of RM27.0m is not entirely d responsibility of JAKS as there are a minority interest of 49%. May I know who r tis minority interest and r tis major shareholders holding directorships in JAKS??? If they are, how will tis minority interest cum major shareholders/directors of JAKS pay 4 their portion of losses??? Will they for instance start disposing their stake in JAKS shares or will they repeat what they've done b4 issuing more free shares 2 directors and/or private placements which will ultimately result in dilution of earnings not just for financial yr 2020 but also for 2021 and many more years to come. I know wat u r goin 2 say n ie "Ive no idea, pls refer 2 Andy Ang in d nex AGM" but since u r more knowledgeable than many retailers like me n Ill certainly appreciate ur sincere sharing and ur thoughts on tis. tq n gd nite sir.

I deeply agree. Writers should not be discouraged to write truthfully when less pleasant event or information come to his attention.

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TanDavid88 A good investor should look forward.
Not hearing what is nice to hear only.
Condemn others when a good investor writes the potential setback.
Honest view is better than false hope view.
pjseow is also a good investor here.
Readers here will know who is good and have a good foresight.
30/04/2020 8:38 PM

Results announcement maybe delayed until June

Dear All,

This should be good enough. Please stop blaming OTB.

Thank you

---------------------------------
OTB Posted by DK66 > Apr 30, 2020 7:13 PM | Report Abuse

I believe OTB has made clear that this is NOT a sell call but a revision of 2020 earnings forecast. His forecast for 2021 remains intact. We should rest this episode.
-------------------
Ans :
I feel sorry to all of you if my action had caused any damage to all of you.
It is not my intention to cause the share price of Jaks to go down.
No benefit to my group if the share price of Jaks is going down.
I also want to win big.
Thank you.
30/04/2020 7:17 PM

We should look forward to the big article from sifu Icon8888 !!

I believe OTB has made clear that this is NOT a sell call but a revision of 2020 earnings forecast. His forecast for 2021 remains intact. We should rest this episode.

Newbie0916, Thank you for your good words.

However, I must speak what I had witnessed. OTB has put in great effort to learn about Jaks. He arranged to meet with insiders and sought information for his analysis. He emailed me numerous times to seek clarification for better understanding. He won't stop until I have explained to his satisfaction.

Hence, it is my opinion that he is not a copy and paste kind of guy.

-------------------------
Newbie0916 I am neither a fans nor hater of otb. Looks like now I understand why so many people joined otb's hater gang. Previously, I saw a article in I3 saying that otb copy& paste someone's articles and sent it to his subscribers. Initially, I thought that article must be written by otb's hater gang. After I saw few comments made by otb in this forum, I found out that the article I saw might be posted by one of his subscribers who pay so much money to subscribe but end up get a copy& paste work instead of doing research like what he claimed. He/She feel betrayed, that's why he/she wrote that kind of article. Do u still remember why I asked the question about the relationship between CEEC and CPECC? I guess u not remember, because dk66 is the real sifu here who really pay his effort to do the research. Salute to dk66 and other real sifus for willing to share his/her knowledge with everyone.
无风不起浪,事出必有因
I am not a subscriber, fans nor hater of otb. Please don't quote me as your hater. Thank you.
30/04/2020 4:22 PM

Probability,

After due consideration, I did not perform the calculation because Mong Duong I is not operating under BOT and it belongs to EVN. Its cash flow projection spans 40 years which is approximately the useful life of a coal power plant. It does not have capacity and energy charge and no pass thru of fuel costs.

In fact, there is no need to do extrapolation because the FIRR will remain unchanged after you made adjustment for the cost and the number of useful years.

----------------
probability @DK66, hope you will revert with the table giving cash flow and earnings for 25 years as i had requested earlier using IRR of 12%.

That will be the Occam's razor to cut all the craps..once and for all.

For a person from a non-financial background that would be really helpful.

Everyone is here with an interest. Hng33 is most obvious. His flip flop remarks depends on his current position.

OTB's reason for not disclosing his latest article due to fear of causing panic selling is understandable yet questionable. We are no judge of his decision. It is commendable if he did it out of good intention.

He mentions that he remains confident with Jaks and I presume he will stay invested at least until June 2021, maybe ?

All said, we should move on

Dear OTB,

To be fair, there is nothing wrong with revising estimates. Everyone does that including KYY. I also came up with many estimates.

From what I read, it seems that many are angry because you posted in i3 to promote Jaks but didn't post your sell call in i3. Although you are not obligated to do so but many felt betrayed and manipulated.

Anyway, lets bygone be bygone. Move on


-------------------------
OTB Dear DK66, Icon8888 and pjseow,
I revised down the earning of Jaks for FY 2020.
I maintain the earning of Jaks for FY 2021.
Anything wrong with my action ?
I did not post my article in I3, is this action also wrong ?
Do I need to report or ask permission from someone here when I revise down the earning of Jaks for FY 2020 ?
When I revised down the earning of Jaks for FY 2020, do I lose my integrity ?
I talk about facts and figures also wrong.
I think the most important thing is to see my projected earning of Jaks for FY 2020 is correct or not. That is the most important thing to judge me.
Please advise me.
Thank you.
30/04/2020 12:46 PM

OTB emailed his article to me seeking my opinion. I told him that the losses pertaining to property division should be halved as Jaks only owns 51%.

For example, for 9 months of 2019, the total LAD was 27m of which 49% is attributable to minority interest. It is quite unlikely that the projection of 27m LAD for 9 months 2020 is entirely attributable to Jaks.

I extracted the following from my article "Q4 2019 results" to explain how accounts are done on group basis and later adjusted for minority interest.

"Why is there a loss after tax of RM15m but a profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (Jaks) of RM18m ?

This is because 49% of the RM29m losses in property segment belongs to minority interests, and 100% of RM27m construction profit belongs to Jaks. On the group basis, there is a loss of RM15m but when computing the profit attributable to Jaks you have to deduct the property losses attributable to the minority interests. In general, shareholders of Jaks are only concerned with the profit attributable to Jaks only, which is RM18m in Q4 2019."

The whole world is printing money because of covid19 and interest rate is going down to Zero. You will see stocks booming once covid19 is over much like what happened to US after the financial crisis in 2008 when every central banks printed money.

Please do not attack OTB, he did not post the article here. He has a duty to his subscribers.

The question is whether his article has affected your confidence in Jaks.

I m still confident as always.

Just a reminder to all readers

Jaks' property segment is only 51% owned by Jaks, hence whatever expenses and losses or LAD must be halved when calculating the profit attributable to Jaks' shareholders.

Icon8888 is right. You buy Jaks because of JHDP which hasn't started operation yet. Don't pay too much attention to its immediate results.

Ricky Kiat, LAD is to compensate buyers for the delay. I m not sure whether MCO has any bearing in this.

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Ricky Kiat bro dk66, jaks still need pay LAD which bank already suspend buyer 6 months installment (pacific start)???
30/04/2020 9:54 AM

OTB is still having discussion with me on his latest article. I have advised him on part of the computation. I believe this is not his final piece.

Since this is not an official posting by OTB, though I disagree i will not comment.

Stockwin, It is very unlikely for JHDP to have commenced generating electricity. How reliable is your source of information ?
---------------------
stockwin Dear DK,
Heard Hai Duong power plant has commenced generating electricity? also COD to commence on 1.5.2020?
Is that right? or Fake?
29/04/2020 4:53 PM

I m delighted to hear this and eagerly waiting to read

------------------
Icon8888 I am busy writing an article about Jaks
29/04/2020 12:15 PM

Aseng, Thank you

-------------------
Aseng brothers and sisters

DK66 had worked so hard to help us to see the value of a good buy

it is hard to meet a sifu in i3 who is willing to share with us so generously without charging us a single cent

we must work equally hard to protect him

DK66,

well done !
加油
29/04/2020 12:09 PM

Baseless accusation of me will not cause the price to drop for you to collect cheap. If you are capable, best is to find fault in my writings to discredit me completely.

Andrew83, Thank you bro
----------------------
Support DK66,since 2008 til now his never tell lies to us……加油sa wu
26/04/2020 11:33 PM

VIN3133, Thank you
----------------------
VIN3133 Bro DK66
I believe all stock investors/traders here in i3 are matured enough to do own due diligence before investing/trading.
No one is pointing a gun at our head to swallow whatever info shared in this public forum . We either agree or disagree .If we disagree, we can challenge /correct his facts & figures . We don't simply attack people .
We invest/trade at our own risk after doing own due diligence .
DK66,you are a rare breed in i3 in your selfless info. sharing i have come across.
I really appreciate & benefit from all your info. sharing here .
Keep up your good work !!

Cheers !!
26/04/2020 9:46 PM

elbrutus, thank you

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elbrutus DK66 bro...u r allright...come JUNE all will be fine...n if those noisy buggers come here n harrass u again i shall help u to shut their traps !!!
26/04/2020 8:14 PM

Dear OTB, Thank you

-------------------
OTB DK66 did not point a gun at your head to force you to buy.
The final decision to buy is always yours.

To me, DK66 is a true gentleman.
I bought Jaks because of DK66.
Even I cannot make any profit in Jaks, I will not blame DK66.
I trust DK66 for his good work done so far.
It is very difficult to find a honest person like DK66 in I3.
DK66, I support you.
Thank you.
26/04/2020 7:57 PM

Why accuse me of cheating ?

Did I tell readers my academic background ? - Yes
Did I tell readers why I bought Jaks ? - Yes
Did I tell readers my average cost and and my investment strategy ? - Yes
Did I show investment potential with detail computations ? - Yes
Did I show sources of information ? - Yes
Did I caution readers of assumptions made ? - Yes
Did I warn readers of the reliability of the estimates ? - Yes
Did I provide more than one method of evaluation ? - Yes
Did I provide explanation for the use of evaluation method ? - Yes
Did I provide estimation with reference to other similar companies ? - Yes
Did I caution readers of the risk factors involved ? - Yes
Did I provide explanation how each risk factors was mitigated ? - Yes
Did I always answer to queries from readers ? - Yes
Did I constantly update readers with new information ? - Yes

I might not be right in my estimations but I m certainly not cheating anyone here !

Those accuse me of cheating please show proof that I deliberately misled readers here !

Thank you.

Aseng, Thank you for your good words

------------
Aseng 说什么谁骗谁呢？
What are you talking about who is cheating who?
都把我们当傻子了？
You think the readers have no brain?
无说八道。
Nonsense!
不要再为难DK66
Please do not attack DK66
他好心分享不应该有这样的回报
His kindness should not be reciprocated with such a cruelty of human kind
句句合情合理错不了
His calculation is logical and reasonable
不如换你来数一数
How about you show us your insightful calculation
问问自己可否能做的到
Can you do it?
要是不能， 別誤導
If you can't, then don't talk nonsense to mislead me.
26/04/2020 7:03 PM

Aseng DK66 加油

Well done DK66
26/04/2020 7:11 PM

Just thought of a wonderful word - wonderful

How about buying a not so wonderful company with a wonderful future selling at a wonderful price ?

Jaks may not be a wonderful company but it will soon have a very wonderful business, and the most wonderful thing is Jaks is selling at a wonderful (cheap) price. That makes Jaks a wonderful investment and it will give you and me a wonderful life !