To simplify: FA + human behaviors = TA
TA has taken into account of FA without you realizing it.
That is why both work.
But because based on past information they've their limitations.
Both help you to reduce risks tremendously but not completely as the business world is very dynamic.
Investors use their business experience and skills to do some forward thinking to see where a company is heading in the future to predict the share price of the company but things like politics, market manipulators and external factors affect the performance of the share price as well so even by doing this it does not guarantee you that the share price of the company will go up. So nothing is for sure. We are just using our educated guess.
You need to have the financial muscle to invest in the share market,remember no money no talk.
That is why most of us have a normal job. It is not easy but it is not impossible to predict.
Good luck.

Hanting999,no apology needed. All points of view are welcome. Ong has given his personal guaranty during agm,that is good enough for me.
Many thanks to those who have provided so much information on Osk holdings.

I did the opposite, when the ringgit dropped to 7 to 1 pound (British). I sold pound n changed closed to 700k ringgit and bought PBB at 6.30. All this back in 2004. Don't be too pessimistic.

Oil producers will have to reduce production as they have no choice because they will run out of storage spaces. You don't keep on producing at the same pace as now if you have no where to store all the excess oil. Cannot afford to sell at a loss.
Teachers are advised to look after A grade students as they will become doctors,lawyers and accountants. Teachers have to be nice to B grade students as they will become teachers,administrators,policeman and managers. Special attention has to be given to grade C students who like to play truant,talk too much in class and bully others. Great care has to be taken not to insult these grade C students as they will become politicians.
Information from politicians taken with a pinch of salt.
Back to being serious,the ultimate thing is to reduce EPF holding in Rhb. Japanese banks,Chinese and Taiwanese as well as Korean banks need Rhb Islamic banking expertise. Malaysia needs investment. Foreign holding can be limited to 49%.

SinGor,what Aabar has to concentrate on is the money they have to come out with the right issue. They will make an exchange gain. Ringgit won't go down to 3.90 unless oil price falls to US 40 and below and stupid 1MDB default.It is like Osk becomes cheaper so you buy again to average out.
Higher chances for Rhb to be takenover as it has been reorganized and the ringgit is cheap.

SinGor,I hope Aabar will not get other shareholders to object as the ringgit has depreciated so much and Aabar will make a foreign exchange gain in the future. It is not so expensive for them now. They will also get more dividend from the new Rhb Bank too.
Rhb sell down will not last long. Mostly only small funds and retail investors who cannot afford to take up the right issue will sell.
Unlike Cimb,EPF is holding a lot more Rhb shares,I don't think we can count on EPF to do us a favor.
Until we have more information as to the right issue,Rhb share price should be trading around 7.90 to 8.20 as at present.
After the restructuring exercise,I hope someone will takeover Rhb Bank.
Finally,I hope the ghost of 1MDB will disappear as it has already messed up the last merger.

Mr ong will buy from you and keep for life,that is his ultimate goal.

SinGor,September this year is an important month for Osk as the outcome of the merger will be released by then.
Aabar can object to the right issue.

Capital repayment done only after paying liabilities.
2.5billion not a problem if all the benefits are realized and it will be reflected in Rhb new share price.

SinGor,those who do not have money to take up the right issue will sell now. Rhb share price will fall in the short term but good news to Osk as can get Rhb shares even cheaper. In the long run Rhb share price will recover,to the benefit of Osk.

Sephiroth,capital distribution means Rhb Cap shareholders will be given new Rhb Bank shares. Now Rhb Cap waiting for 1st.qtr.result before it can make any announcement on the right issue price.

Osk investment value in Rhb will make a gain as right issue is at a discount.

The buyer knows when Osk becomes a 3bil company,he will not be able to buy at the present price. 3 days of cheap sale left for bargain hunters.

He is still buying but at a steady pace as he knows someone is willing to sell at around 2.21. He bought 8m b'cos it was cheap.

SinGor,unless the seller is mr ong,he is fighting a losing battle. Buyer has been collecting since 2.04. If I were the seller,I would buy instead of selling,stand to make more money.At peak,seller was prepared to sell 1.5m shares per day to keep the price from going up. The seller has reduced his daily sell volume of late.

I can double my money if Rhb heads north and the merger goes ahead,that was why I didn't sell at 2.55. Hope 1mdb don't mess up everything again.
Merger likely to be done as news would've leaked out by now if it has been cancelled and those in the know would have sold.

Rhb share price is heading north,it will pull Osk Holding share price up as well. Investors cannot ignore this,Osk investment in Rhb is increasing in value.

Can only compare 2013 and 2014,before that Osk was a totally different company from what it is today.
For example:
you cannot compare a price paid for a takeover with a merger.
ratios used in a bank merger cannot be compared with ratios used in a merger between property companies.
cannot compare ratios used when Rhb TOOKOVER Osk with ratios used for Osk MERGER with Pjd n Osk property.
Have to be careful comparing companies in different sectors.
We have to be careful comparing companies of different sizes,a 2.5billions company is very different from a 700millions company,even more so if from different sectors.
Bear in mind,past datas are history and act only as a guide for you to predict the future. It is not a perfect solution. Trends,FA,TA and ratios are all base on historical datas and have their limitations and weaknesses,they're not perfect. You can say the same with the financial statements of the company,they contain only historical datas. By using all these reduces risks but not completely and will give you a certain degree of accuracy but not 100 percent.
Important to note,share price is about what the company will do in the future to increase revenue and profit. When Rubberex was 2.00, it was paying good dividend ( 10% ) , look at the share price now.

Thank you for advice,Adcool. Did exactly that back in May,2009 till June,2010. Bought first time at 96 cents. Traded almost every week for a year,made 33k.
Now,every time Osk reaches around 2.18 you can sell and buy back in a day or two when it has dropped 6 to 9 cents. The trend for the past 2 months.
Don't expect anything from ong,like you say.
There are enough free floating shares in the market to push the share price higher when there are major news or development. Like when they announced the banks merger. Don't forget Osk was around 1.70 right before the announcement and Osk reached a high of 2.55 after that. Now,everyone is waiting for the next merger news,be it Rhb or Osk Property n Pjd.
Did not trade regularly now as I did not want to be caught out not holding any Osk shares when announcement is made.

Thank you, babu.

Hanting999,things are moving at snail pace. Osk lack of communication with investors,make us trade in the dark. Lack of information about the progress of things to come are not available,typical of companies in M'sia. The Edge is quite accurate,I don't think they're wrong. When Rhb took over Osk and ong did not give us anything,I sold Osk at a loss (26,500) because I knew ong will hold on to everything for some time. Recouped my loss by trading in Mbsb back in 2013 and make some money too. I bought back Osk back in June,2013 at 1.71 and has been waiting for Osk to move forward.
There is no good or bad guys in the stock market,it's all about money,only profit or loss. We are all faceless people, the stock market take no prisoners,no mercy. When you make money there are others losing.
I know malaysian panic when others are fearful and when others are greedy we lose all sense of value and become even more greedy. Classic examples of how to lose money in the stock market.
There is an article posted above on 2/3/15 in chinese (headlines). Hope you can read as I can't.

www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/cimb-boustead-bina-puri-brahim's-eo-7-eleven-ksl-superman-osk holdings
Posted on 27/2/15.
The edge reported OSK holding will diversify income by merging pjd n Osk property.

By the look of things, even Phd holders have a hard time analyzing. Your guess is as good as them. Something obvious like Osk shareholders will collect 7.5 cents dividend plus 15 cents special dividend which will give you 22.5 cents, that is more than 10% dividend next year, have not even taken free warrant into account but investors still panic sell. I have to stop writing for a while, happy new year to you, SinGor and everyone in this forum.

Rhb share price from now until merger is unfortunately linked to Cimb because of the exchange rate of share. Rhb on its own can weather the storm. What is important is how the mega bank will perform and how they communicate to investors. There are so many unstable variables now, eg. oil price, how Indonesia will perform, US interest rate, value of the ringgit, competition from other ASEAN countries not to mention economic performance of Europe and Japan and how politically stable Malaysia is. These are only a small number of things that need to be considered. Fear has gripped the share market for now. Psychology side of investing kicks in rather than the numerical side.
Osk is under value that is why it is holding steady. Next year end 2015 result for Osk will be very different from 2014 as the profits from Osk property and share of Pjd profit will be taken into account. Everyone is waiting for Ong to give back some money to Osk shareholders too. I wonder how much the warrant is worth.

My apology too, was commenting to SinGor. Got carried away. Politics affect the share market and every counter in it, not a little but with great effect. Will not bore you anymore, time to go away.

SinGor. I know MUFG was selling Cimb but don't know the % sold. They may be selling not only Cimb, Cimb just happened to be one of them. A lot of funds are holding more cash now. They will start buying again when there are less uncertainties and risks. Yen may depreciate in the near future, that is one of the reason why they are repatriating funds back home now. They know Malaysia has less money to spend when oil prices are down. Hopefully they will invest in and stay invested in Malaysia or Cimb if we can convince them that they have a future investing here. It is Cimb duty to show fund managers around the world why they should not miss this opportunity.
China is a different story from Japan, do not know what business you are in or how competitive it is in the logistic business but very glad to know you are doing well. Wish you all the best in the future too.
Reduction in oil subsidies : subsidies should have been reduced gradually more than ten years ago. I was cursed and swear at by my friends when I said this in year 2003. A lot of Malaysian did not realize the Malaysian government was losing millions because of smuggling of fuel to Thailand. In Hatyai you could buy, smuggled from Malaysia, fuel at 30 baht ( 3 ringgit ) where as the market price was 39 baht ( 3.90 ringgit ) last year in July. Ask any tuk tuk driver in Hatyai and they can tell you this. It was so rampant that smugglers in Thailand could pay the exMarine police chief in Thailand 12 million baht in a single payment. Luckily for us the exMarine police chief was apprehended. I hope our PM can ask their PM about this since the Thai PM is in town. Don't forget it was their marine police chief that was caught so you have an idea how it was smuggled out.
Not only PM, everyone should be sending their money back to Malaysia, starting with all the politicians who have money residing overseas. Don't care which political parties you are in, please lead by example. We are fighting for Malaysia and not each other.

SinGor time to hibernate. Oil price drop, as if not bad enough, people in politics kept saying the wrong things. Stability of the country is very important for foreign investors to have the confidence to invest in Malaysia. All political parties should bear this in mind. We are sandwich between S'pore n Thailand, should concentrate on these 2 countries instead of arguing between all the political parties in Malaysia. Malaysia is competing with the whole world, don't forget this. Times are not so good too now. Thailand has shown you the bad things that happened when in fighting started, don't have to look so far. Luckily for Thailand, a fatherly figure has emerged to stop all the nonsense and is now doing some house cleaning.

From Ong's reactions and comments during Pjd meeting, it is going to be a long and tedious process. It will be after mega bank is formed. Osk holding merger will be completed by September. In the meantime approval from the relevant authorities will be applied for over the next 2 months. Need Osk holding shareholders approval too.
Please bear in mind, share price will react to the merger 6 months before it takes place. This is the normal time span in which share market reacts to major news.
Good news now is
1) NTA is 2.79 and by year end it should be 2.85. Osk share is undervalued.
2) profit more or less same as forecast.
3) revenue more or less same as forecast.
Revenue and profit boring, that is why need to inject new businesses into Osk holding.

Come Saturday 29th. we should have a clearer picture as to Osk prop. and PJD. Which is of more importance than the 3qtr. results of Rhb and Cimb because by mid 2015 these 2 banks will become one and it will be a different story all together. Share prices of Cimb and Rhb are only relevant to those who want to sell/buy before the merger.
Osk holding will not be concerned about Rhb share price at present as Osk holding will convert all the shares to that of the new mega bank. I think ong has found a buyer for the new entity already as Osk holding needs the cash to finance it's expansion. He is in his 70's that is why I said he might distribute half the proceed from the disposal to shareholders. It is time for him to enjoy the fruits of his labour, more than 700mil to be exact, from only half the proceed mind you. I don't think he can use all of it in the next 15 to 20 years.
If Cimb 4qtr. results get worse, Rhb should negotiate a better exchange rate for the merger. I don't know if they have a provision for this or not.
The point is, Osk's shareholders should concentrate on what will happen to Osk property and Pjd instead of Cimb and Rhb.
On a different matter, Bursa should allow remisers to charge a minimum commission of 40 ringgit for each and every transaction done. This to a certain extent wil stop people from selling 100 shares in a company 20 or more times in a day. This is one of the obvious way how share price is being manipulated.
I know many investors are worried about what is happening to Rhb and Cimb share prices and it's effects on Osk holding. That's why I am writing this. I hope you have a better understanding of the situation now.

Icwin, I think same, same.

If he give shareholders 1/2 the proceed from the sales, he will receive more than 700mil which covers his investment in Pjd( 250 ) and Osk( 400 ). He gets his money back but he still controls Osk prop through Osk hold. Pjd becomes an associate co. of Osk hold. so he loses nothing. When he converts his warrants in the future, he will tighten his grip on Osk holding.

Thank u, glad to know I am not writing nonsense.

Ong never wanted Pjd shareholders to convert to Osk hold. shares which is why he is offering you such a low price. If the offer is good and all the others were to accept, he would not be able to gain control of Osk hold. His shareholding would be less than 50% if all the other shareholders were to accept shares in Osk hold. Ong will lose around 150mil on Pjd ( base on NTA 2.54 ) but he will gain at least 350mil on Osk hold. when he increased his holding in Osk to 55%. It was never his intention for the rest to accept a share exchange. Maybe he will offer Pjd shareholders a better deal later but not now.

It look ridiculous at first. Ong is selling his Pjd and Osk prop. to Osk hold. because he knows Osk hold. is worth more than $2. Pjd and Osk prop have yet to do it but Osk hold. has already done it. It has 2.5b and cash is king. Ong has all the infor he needs to come to this decision, we do not.
Osk cap on 10th. Oct has provided more than 400m loan to a company, I think it was to Pjd.
Now he has to convince shareholders in both the companies. Reasons have to be given. We have to wait for this.

The most likely result is only ong and pac will covert their shares to Osk holding. Ong holding in Osk hold will be about 55%. Osk prop will be a subsidiary and Y/E consolidation will be done. Pjd will be an associate co. and share of holding taken in bal. sheet and share of profit taken in P/L a/c. The point is, eps will increase as there is a 30% increase in new shares but profit will increase by more than 50% next year.
Osk hold. market value is 2.80 . Osk prop. market value is also 2.80. Now both value at 2.00 therefore ong will not lose out. Osk nta is 1.87 but takenover at 2. Ong has increased his holding to 55%, he is in control.
Instead of holding Pjd share directly, ong has only transferred it to Osk which he controls. He rather loses out on the smaller investment in order to gain control of Osk. Investment in Pjd around 250m but in Osk prop. 400m. and Osk hold. around 1billion. Win 2 , lose a little in 1. Small price to pay to gain control of Osk which will be cash rich. Osk at present ong holds 41%, sure he will not offer a better deal to Pjd which is a smaller co. and in which he has a smaller holding. If the offer is better to Pjd he will lose big.

Thank u, paulthesotong.

Correction, share of holding in PJD will be taken into account in Osk hold. , not profit. I beg your pardon.

Osk prop will be a subsidiary company of Osk hold. Year end financial result will be consolidated into Osk hold even if the rest do not want Osk hold to take over as ong and pac will sell 73.6%. Only need to account for minority interest in financial statement.
As for PJD, it will be an associate company. Share of profit will be taken into account in Osk hold.

Hanting999, ong's share in Osk will be around 44% if I am not wrong, assuming the rest of them will convert to Osh hold shares as well. Ong + PAC have applied for exemption to undertake a mandatory takeover offer for the remaining Osk shares under practice code 9 Take o + Merger, in case ong + co hold more than 50%. This can happen when the rest of the shareholders want cash. NTA of combine Osk will be below NTA, Osk $2 but NTA 2.75 , PJD $1.60 but NTA 2.54 and surprise,surprise Osk prop $2 - NTA 1.87. Correct me if I am wrong.

I have assumed old Osk holding ordinary share of 1.00 ringgit was issued at par value of 1.00 ringgit. But the market value yesterday was 2.08.
Where is the money coming from for the takeover?
Ong is encouraging PJD and Osk prop shareholders to take up share offer instead of cash as Osk holding is still worth more than 2 ringgit after the takeover.

Thank u 4 reading. Don't confuse issue and market price of a share. The issue price of Osk holding share at present is 1 ringgit. New Osk holding share is issued at 2. Ong will have to give u Rhb/new entity share or sale proceed from Rhb/new entity share to back up the value of Osk holding. Ong is telling u Osk hold. is worth more than 2 ringgit. Ong may have strucked a deal to hive off Rhb. Have to convince PJD majority and Osk prop minority shareholders that Osk hold is worth more than 2 ringgit for the takeover to be successful. As for Osk prop, he is more or less paying himself. I don't think he will pay himself less than the market value or NTA value. Aabar wanted 12 for Rhb. Ong can say to Aabar if u think Rhb is worth 12, I will sell Rhb to u for 11 or 11.50 or even 12. Ong can then use this to back up the valuation of Osk hold. Otherwise no deal, forget it.
I think PJD took a loan from Osk capital to finance the project in Australia.

How high a premium will be accorded to the new entity share depends on information to be release by the mega bank as to the forecast of future profits, cost savings, new businesses, new markets and how the entity will expand. It is goodwill Ah Moi is referring to, paying a higher price for the brand. Why do you buy Prada, Dior, Channel, Gucci and not Bonia or Padini. Local brands provide you with the same function. It is the same with watches, why buy Patek Philip, Rolex, Cartier, Dunhill and not Casio which tell you the time just as accurate. Goodwill is the intangible asset of the company and there is a value attach to it. The new entity will have to be informative, give the new entity a chance to show you what they will be doing. The public is not dumb and if they are convince about the bright future this new entity will have then they will pay a premium for it.

Part I: Cimb and Rhb merging. Instead of giving Rhb a valuation of 12, it has been given a middle of the road valuation of 10 but Cimb has been valued at the lower end ( 7.27 ). Cimb exchange rate for the new entity was not favorable, it was better to hold Rhb shares for the exchange. A higher goodwill valuation was not accorded to Cimb. This was to please Aabar and to simplify the merging process otherwise goodwill valuation have to be given to the 3 banks which will complicate things further. It is like CokeCola merging with Yeo ( no offend to Yeo ), the bigger company should command a higher goodwill valuation.
Part II: Mbsb given the choice of being takenover ( cash out ) or merging with mega Islamic Bank. A higher valuation was given to Mbsb as in a takeover.
Reasons why Osk retreated:
1: profit taking.
2: Dowjones fell, klse sea of red.
3: funds pulling out of M'sia.
4: investors impatient, cannot wait.
5: those who want to keep the share price down.
6: day traders taking advantage of the situation.
7: those who think Osk holding in Rhb has been diluted from 9.91% to 3%.
9.91% x Rhb 25.8b = 2.556b
3% x ( Rhb 25.8 + Cimb 60.58 ) = 2.591b
Therefore no dilution. Market cap. taken from the star newspaper.
8: risk of not being approved by Bank Negara. Very, very slim chance of this happening as B Negara would not have given permission for the 90 days negotiation. Very disruptive to share price if BN were to allow it in the first place.
9: EPF to vote or not. Not an issue any more as EPF voting is now to speed up and shorten the merging process.
10: objection by Aabar. It has been given the opportunity to invest in the mega Islamic Bank and more over Cimb has been given a lower exchange rate for the new entity and Rhb has a value higher than the market value.
All the risks being greatly reduced.
Kudamuda, good thinking. Osk movie Part I : PJD + Osk prop will materialize soon.
Part II: Coming soon. Osk have no choice but to diversify, no ifs, to drive the company forward. Ong told you PJD + Osk prop merging to gain status of being first tier developer, with 3b in turnover per annum. He has to do the same to Osk holding, he is not blind to this. End result mini Mega OSK created.
Ong only needs to sell half of the new entity as PJD 800m + Osk prop 244m = 1,044m
Hopefully he will give you the other half. If he use the other half for projects in the mini Mega Osk, profit will soar and so will the share price. Hope you enjoy reading this.

Vinvin you are correct that there are more investors willing to sell at a lower price. The number of buyers must equal to the numbers of sellers otherwise there won't be any transaction done. So there are investors willing to take up the risk of holding Osk's shares. That is why you should not panic and sell at such a low price. If you are selling at a discount, the price of the share will tumble. The only way to stop the share from tumbling is to stop panic selling. As I have said, Osk will diversify and can double it's profit. Osk can easily borrow 1 billion. I am not surprise if ong has been accumulating Osk shares over the past few weeks. Ong knows he can get a buyer for Rhb shares which is why he wanted to take Osk private. Rhb of old, when Aabar bought in, is so different from what it is today. Kam has done a great job in integrating Osk investment bank, the success is beginning to show in the profits of Rhb. Big funds will buy Osk shares when Osk has acquired new businesses. At present they are not allowed to do so because Osk is considered a small company. The future is still bright for Osk with or without the merger. I don't think this time ong can take Osk private at anything less than 2.50. Offer should be nearer to NTA value to stand any chance of being successful.

There are investors willing to take the risk at these prices, 2.10-2.15. They are the buyers. Volume more than 1 mil.

If Cimb miss this opportunity and Maybank is handed the chance to do this merger, Cimb will have a hard time catching up. Cimb merging with HLB or PBB, I don't see how this can happen.

Instead of looking for ways to get around Aabar, EPF should confront the problem of valuing Rhb at 12 ringgit. EPF will benefit from the higher valuation too as the largest shareholder.It is only fair to have a special purpose company to exchange for the shares of the 3 banks. Rhb valued at 12 , Cimb at 8.5 and Mbsb at 3. The mega bank should command a premium price, it should beat Pbb hands down. Why worry about valuing 20% more for Rhb. Aabar is not holding 100% of Rhb. It seems that everyone is forgetting that this a merger and the future profit of the mega bank is the most important thing. Paying 20% more is peanuts compared to what the mega bank will get back in profits in the future. Not to mention the Arabs are threatening to pull out billions in investment in Malaysia. You do not throw away the whole chicken just because you do not want to eat the skin. It would be a pity for Malaysia to lose out just because of 20%.

Hope today Najib is doing some PR work for the New Islamic Bank to US fund managers.

I do not want anyone to lose hard earned money on Osk. At 2.14 it was worth buying, as the up side was 50% more than the down side. IF no merger were to take place, which is highly unlikely, panic selling will push the price down to around 1.75. All positive reasons and information will be thrown out of the window. It will be over sold before it bounce up again. Investors sell out of fear, that is human behavior. Need to be aware of the psychology side of investing as well as the numerical side. The good thing about investing in share is, you do not realize your lost if you don't sell. Don't add momentum to the herd mentality which will help to depress the price even more. If the future is bright for Osk, why do you want to sell. Agree with Xiaoxiao that it is close to the bottom now. In the event the merger is on, Osk will reach 2.75 being it's NTA value, more if ong gives you at lease half the new entity shares. Rarely normal investors can time to perfection when to buy and sell shares because you do not have perfect information or the financial muscle to do so.

Keep an eye on Rhb volume and price.