Moderna’s vacinne available in 2021? How can a company with no product yet on the market can produce vaccine? So easy to get vaccine???



Below from CNBC Quote;

So how did a 10-year-old company with no products yet on the market leapfrog industry giants like Johnson & Johnson and Merck in one of the greatest medical races in history? Moderna was No. 1 on CNBC’s Disruptor 50 list in 2015, and five years later it’s still disrupting.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/moderna-ceo-sees-high-probability-of-success-with-covid-19-vaccine.html

trend reversal... Now uptrend again...

This price is very cheap.... Blood all over today. Will buy some tomo. Lucky sold when results announced. This is panic sales. Value is emerging again. I am not suggesting to buy all in but buy in stages if you believe in gloves...

Charles, never buy some today meh? Below RM 7 is very cheap...

Yeah lah. A lot naysayers talk cock only. When shares up so much in short space of time, volatility and consolidating are normal. There is no change in fundamental. I also added some RM7.00, 6.90, 7.80.7.70 and 7.60 for trading only for those panic sale. Looks like i can sell tomo for contra profit

Still have some for mid term investment.


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CharlesT c whether Team A or Team B will talk cock here tmr....lol
18/06/2020 4:54 PM

Good price to add more at 6.73. Better add in batches...

Add more at RM 6.93. Hehe. Today is cheap due to panic sale...

Supermax should receive valuation on par with Hartelega and Top Glove. Hartalega used to have PE of about 50 historically.

Highlights views from UOB Kay Hian on Supermax on 17 Jun 2020:

'Supermax with its OBM model could be an underappreciated diamond.

Unlike Hartalega, Top Glove and Kossan which are predominantly OEMs,Supermax has toiled for
years to establish its own brand and distribution channels.

The benefits are coming to fruition
with the surge in ASPs. It currently commands ASPs of close to US$160-175/’000 pieces vs
US$150 in May and US$90 pre-COVID period.

We gather there is limited upside to current ASPs as various government agencies have implemented redirecting of personal protective equipment (PPE) supplies of close to US$160-175/’000 pieces.

That said, Supermax does
receive urgent ad hoc orders in the range of US$190/’000 pcs.'

Today sell off is because KLCI plunges, as the market worries US market will crash again. US futures dropped 1%. Superman is still in consolidating phase...

Interesting to note item 7...There is a fundamental change happening for the glove sector, leading to positive trends in the long term. I.e. Better healthcare awareness, more glove usage in more industries, higher usage of gloves per capita in more countries. Hence, glove ASPs will never go back to 18-22USD per 1000 pieces, with recurring usage driving higher consumption patterns.

CIMB's view on glove...

Sector in focus: Rubber Gloves

Recommendation: Overweight

Top picks: Top Glove (TOPG MK, Add, TP:RM 25.00) & Supermax (SUCB MK, Add, TP:RM 9.80)
Other calls: Kossan (KRI MK, Add, TP: RM11.50) & Hartalega (HART MK, Add, TP: RM14.60)

Key highlights:
Share prices of glove counters particularly, Top Glove and Supermax declined by double digits yesterday. In my view, this is unwarranted. I have also received a lot of enquiries on the reasons why glove counters were being sold down, and whether there has been: i) any fundamental changes, ii) weakening of Dow Jones and iii) massive profit taking on these stocks.

Comments:
1) Based on channel checks as recent as yesterday, there has been no fundamental changes to the glove sector
a. Vaccine rumors still persist, but there has not one there has gone beyond clinical trials. Everything else remains as speculation at this juncture, with any potential vaccine are only ready for mass production by mid-next year (trust me, I cover healthcare stocks too!).
b. Quantity and prices of ah-hoc orders continue to increase (more glove makers are allocating higher percentage of capacity for spot orders) and order visibility remains solid for glove makers (12-14 months).
c. ASPs hikes are still on the cards (ASPs increases are likely to be up to 1QCY20), with more orders being received in preparation for 2nd wave of Covid-19 in various countries.
d. Near-term earnings outlook remains beyond solid, with glove makers likely to post record-breaking profits in the next 2-3 quarters at the very least. In fact, recent noises suggest that some earnings forecast for certain companies are too conservative.

2) If we just zoom into yesterday’s share price data, Malaysia glove makers suffered big declines in share prices while share prices of China-based glove makers appreciated by 7-10% yesterday. Singapore glove makers retreated slightly today by 1.7-1.9%. Based on data from the past 7 days, Malaysia glove makers are the only ones having negative share price performances (-7.3% to -32%), while share prices of Singapore glove makers still appreciated slightly (+0.4% to +5.3%).

3) As a matter of fact, we understand that there has been an increase in enquirers for more glove orders (spot and recurring) given concerns of wave 2 of Covid-19. This is given concerns of occurrence of more Covid-19 cases with re-opening of schools and businesses on a global basis. We have begun to see a re-spike in cases in China, US, Russia, Brazil and etc. (While things are normalizing in Malaysia, cases of Covid-19 on a global scale are in fact increasing and not declining)

4) Based on our earnings forecasts, glove stocks valuations have retreated to a level which we believe are very attractive (TOPG is trading at 13.6x CY21 P/E while SUCB is trading at 19.7x CY21 P.E – Both companies are expected to post at least 200-300% yoy growth in FY21 net profit). I believe glove stocks are attractive as they are trading at teen P/E, and have 200-300% yoy earnings growth.

5) Take note that our earnings forecast have yet to account for any surge in gloves due to Wave 2. On average, our earnings forecast for glove companies are accounting for ASPs increase up to end-CY20, flat in 1HCY21 with a decline from 3QCY21 onwards.

6) Will glove ASPs and demand for glove fall off the cliff? Long and short answer is a definite NO.

During H1N1, average orderbook was 4-5 months at max, and Malaysian glove makers enjoyed a minimum of 5 quarters of strong glove demand. Hence, we should expect at least 8-9 quarters of strong glove demand based on current order visibility of more than 1 year plus.

While we expect ASPs to fall when supply-demand of gloves is more balanced (likely when order visibility is below 4-6 months), but i believe that ASPs of gloves will never go back to 18-22USD per 1000 pieces. This is like expecting face mask prices to go back to 18 sen per piece in 2HCY19 compared to RM0.80-1.50 per piece currently (China masks which has no quality standard being dumped at 50-60 cents per piece – this cannot happen in glove sector, as gloves are used in healthcare sector which requires FDA approval). (Bear in mind, face mask machines can be bought off the shelves, but building glove plants including installation of production lines need 18-24 months to reach a certain standard produce gloves with FDA-approved quality)

7) There is a fundamental change happening for the glove sector, leading to positive trends in the long term. I.e. Better healthcare awareness, more glove usage in more industries, higher usage of gloves per capita in more countries. Hence, glove ASPs will never go back to 18-22USD per 1000 pieces, with recurring usage driving higher consumption patterns.

Dow futures up amid report that Trump is preparing $1 trillion infrastructure proposal

Hope no negative surprise in US Mkt tonite

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Good closing at RM 7.31, up about 44 sen. better than my expectation. If today US Market increase, tomo will continue uptrend...

After this sell down, many investors lost monies &confidence and many waiting to sell. Big funds or operators will buy slowly from weak holders (usually called consolidating) until next catayst, eg quarterly reports, inclusion of FTST syariah etc. Be patient lah. Increase is about 30 sen is good already. Still in consolidating stage, or ding dong ding dong for few days before it can move back to RM 8.

OTB Posted by CharlesT > Jun 16, 2020 10:45 AM | Report Abuse

seems like EMA 20 is strong support...all big 4 never fall below that level

Posted by CharlesT > Jun 16, 2020 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

c if stanley will ever give chance to test ema 20 for third time or not....
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CharlesT is very good in TA now. Very good comment.

If the share price goes down to test 20-day EMA again, it is better so that we know it is a double bottom.
A sign to show that the share price had hit bottom.
This action will flush out all weak holders.
Then the share price of Supermx can go up very fast in the near future.
My 2 cents comment based on TA view point.
I hope I am not pouring water on the fire.
Thank you.

OTB has a good sharing just now on TA view.

It will increase gradually again after this consolidation and margin call yesterday. Investors' margin account limit to buy shares also reduced after pullback across the board yesterday with KLCI dropped more than 50 points. After today increase, tomo limit will increase again. Healthy correction.

Nasdaq futures only drop 1% now. KLCI dropped 3%. I think Nasdaq will not drop more than 3% anymore as companies like Google, FB, amazon are not affected by Covid 19. I miss FB when i dropped to USD 160 in March 2020 sell down...

US S&P dropped about 2% earlier,now about 1.5%, Msia blue chips KLCI dropped 3%. Msia boleh. Also noted that US futures drop today the most also give back friday gain.....

Every time panic sales will be good opportunity for smart investors to make more money...

Yes. Oversold. Will rebound rather strongly soon. Will add more tomo if price cheap...

Retailers who listened to this japanese secretinvestor8888 sell call lost a lot as today is panic sale.

Glove stocks should be defensive stocks now and it will recover faster than others. Today is good time to add not selling

Glove stocks should be defensive stocks. If you not managed to sell earlier, now too late. Do not panic sale to sharks. Second wave is good for glove stocks. I sold bank stocks and will slowly add more supermax...

Today mkt drop is because bad sentiment across the board due to US futures is plunging and KLCI dropped more than 25 points. Not because of glove stocks... US futures plunge due to fear second wave of Covid 19.

Good chance to add more today...

IBs start to upgrade the price of TG to RM 25 after the result. Soon they will upgrade Superman again. I believe naysayers here wanted to buy low. Otherwise they will not waste time here. I also wanted to add more when it drops, but can i top up again at RM7.50 monday, like i got yesterday?


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https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/2020-06-12-story-h1508755298-Top_Glove_Corporation_Quantum_Leap_in_Earnings.jsp

S&P now up about 2%. Monday will high chance of rebounding...

After this round correction, you may not get Superman below RM 8 anymore

Don't chase high as glove stocks are very volatile. Buy on panic sale is better way. Must have extra cash to add during panic sales

Agreed. I managed to buy from 7.50 - 7.9 today.

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freetospeak TG QTR 3 eps 13.52, Supermax QTR 4 eps will be more than 13.52, but Supermax is only 25% of Topglove market value. So u think which is cheaper.

Fundamental play an important rule in share price not just chart. Let Superman consolidate and rest a bit and will goup again very soon. Dow is recovering. Monday will be a good day for superman, i believe.

take a rest lah. Market up and down is very normal. No stock can continue up every day. Adjustment will happen and then move up again if prospect is good.

Market works on opposite most of the time. That is why most retail investors lost money.

I think is oversold today and will recover soon. Most call warrant players were killed today by IBs. No point playing call warrants issued by IBs as you cannot beat them. Game not over yet.

Today is good opportunity for IBs to press down price to kill call warrant investors due to broad based sell off in blue chips...

Comfort oversold. Will recover pretty soon...

Good time to add superman now. I sold some at 8.9 when market open. Now top up again. Dump dump hold

Bloomberg headline : Stock Futures Drop on Fed Caution, Virus Warning.

World market dropped badly today due mainly to 2nd wave virus warning. Good news for glove stocks bad news for others

freetospeak, you are right.. Glove is defensive due to covid 19 second wave

Why blue chip suddenly drop so badly?

What happen to Bursa? Maybank etc dropped very badly

Comfort very lousy

Superman target to open RM8.8. Top glove RM 17.80

This morning nearly ICU. Afternoon become Superman again...

Superman gap up. Now best match RM 8.75

This bull not over yet. The best yet to come in next quarter...

no more limit down lah. Game not over yet as second wave is coming. Covid 19 confirmed cases still very high every day in Brazil and US. How to game over so fast.

TG will announce result in the afternoon or after market close?

All call warrants dropped so much. IBs win again. Mother shares are still ok. We can buy and average

Buy mother shares better lah. Slow and steady. Protect capital

You cannot beat IBs. Don't touch call warrant. Kyy is ikan bilis if compared with IBs.