dontfollowblindly, you must truly be blind. Nowhere in this write up did I see the author asking you to chase Insas W. No wonder you lost money following others blindly. You must be drawing conclusions with one eye (or both) closed.

I must also say that you have horrible luck since you must have invested all your money in the few loss making stocks KC Chong recommended but none in the ones that were multi-baggers like PTARAS, LATITUD, HOMERIZ etc... You must have the most horrible luck in investing... better just put all your money in FD with this kind of luck ...cause whichever sifu you follow also will end up picking those loss making ones... hahaha

hentam some at RM 1.97 today... the best time to grab is always during unexpected negative surprise...

Excess cash = RM108.425 mil

I found this formula to be simple and useful

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/investment-tools/calculate-xirr-annualized-returns/

Hi, the GDV for the Kemuning project is RM 110 mil with more than 90% take up rate already. Should sustain them for the next year or two. They do have others in the pipeline...

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=H&securityCode=8443

Their property GDV for Kemuning Hills is RM110 mil with 90% take up rate. So far less than 1/3 is recognized. Furthermore the manufacturing division PBT margins are showing significant improvement after they streamline their Suzhou operations.

Based on latest TTM results, EV/EBIT is only 5x, undervalued !

Automotive Industry Drives Chip Demand

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1324718

KC,

You and I know that fundamental investing is the only way to invest. The problem is that people are easily swayed by short term returns prospects (included myself). If you ask me 2 years back, whether these stocks can reach these prices, I wouldnt have guessed it. In fact, I have bought and sold HOMERIZ and WILLOW a few times. Although it seemed like a smart move in the short term, when I look back at the bigger picture of those transactions, I realize that I would have been much better just holding those stocks from the beginning.

Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 25, 2015 10:12 AM | Report Abuse

Generally for retail investors without proven trading skill, avoid London Biscuits, Khee San, KNM, GCB etc. Read the article below and keep it for future reflection, seriously.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/67199.jsp

It becomes more risky now for novice investors when a reputable magazine such as The Edge starts to recommend to buy London Biscuits.

I can understand ordinary investor writing about how good is London Biscuits as many may not have not gone into details but just base on simplistic PE ratio, P/B etc, and looking into its cash flow and return on capitals and management actions etc.

But for The Edge? Quite difficult to comprehend!


Which issue was this ? To be fair, I have benefited from their insider asia stock picks or under Tong Value Investing portfolio. Most of their stock picks (value ones) are under-researched counters (some not covered by any research houses). I normally dont pay much attention to their momentum portfolio as that is all based on TA and short term. Perhaps LONDBIS falls under the latter.

yea seanteoh, please share your sources. TP 2.85 is really super high... haha...

Icon, I think Turbo's earnings will be resilient compared to the other players as its income is more recurring in nature. It doesnt have huge dependency to single customer. As its products such as pumps and compressors are used in both downstream and upstream O&G, they are mainly maintenance capex which may not be cut back too much especially if customers are looking to increase the efficiency of their operations. This is just my novice opinion, I bought it mainly because its so undervalued with a good dividend yield

Nice set of Q4 results.. powering up today

Hi I m not sure on that... but it doesnt matter cause it gets eliminated eventualy and added back under share of profit frm associate... perhaps an accountant is better suited to answer....

The segmental revenue is only meant for the consolidated subsidiaries. The elimination is because that portion of the profit is from Malaysia ops which is an associate whereby the financial statements of the associate are not consolidated instead added as a separate line item before arriving to the final PBT...

The recent acquisition of the remaining 35 pct minority interest stake in KESM Test Industries Sdn Bhd appears to be a good use of its excess cash. KESM PE will go down from 9.6x to 6.2x with the acqusition based on latest TTM earnings. Although the acquisition was made from a related party at a price tag of RM 35 mil, with avg 3 years earnings from minority interests, the acquisition multiple works out to about PE of 6.3x which is a good deal.

With the likes of MMSV and ELSOFT trading at PE more than 10x, KESM with its solid balance sheet and improving earnings is at least valued at RM4.17 based on a PE of 10x.

Thanks for this writeup. just take note that you should discount the NCAV by a proportion of the minority interest in the balance sheet... Minority interest is makes up about RM 150 mil out of the 650 mil equity. The Ncav value should be discounted roughly by this proportion...

I think its more important to share strategy and reasoning in buying the share rather than just comparing who does better in 1 year... doing well in 1 year doesnt give u bragging rights... come out with your stock picks with sound reasoning and analysis then we can decide if you re really as good as you say you are....

Hahha... Monte Carlo simulations on the distribution of growth rate... OMG you are going to get a super wide range of intrinsic values ... basically garbage in garbage out anyway, whats the point of complicating things... valuation is an art not precise science... But yea... please show us this new method of calculating the intrinsic value using MC simulation... I am also very eager to learn....

calvin, go check out South Malaysia Industries (SMI), I put something in the thread there.

The net net value calculated is at least RM0.41. Its Menara SMI located in heart of KL not revalued since 1998 and carries book value of RM28 mil only. Not including its other cash, investments, land that far exceed its market capitalization

maybe Gopeng... cash rich with not much core asset... furthermore share price have been flying past 2-3days

I find that a lot of property companies are falling in this category of low PE low P/NTA. Reason could be earnings at cyclical high... my strategy is a bit different, I focus more on low P/B value but look at possible turn around cases. Some of the signs of turn around can be improvement in sequential cashflow situation and profit margins...

Mililia is basing the price of the warrants based on the price of mother today at 81sen. He already assume a 37% premium for the warrant which I agree is reasonable. Of course if Insas mother moves up, the theoretical warrant price should be higher.... depends on what is your assumption on the mother share and premium....

II, yea stick to what you are comfortable with. I can see that you are one of the top performers last year and this year.. well done...

II, I have around 20 but my largest holdings are concentrated around 10 stocks. Watchlist I have a lot, but in general I dont commit >10% per stock. Although focus investing can be rewarding if you pick the winners, most of the time I dont know enough about the company to have a high conviction. Therefore, if I were to follow a purely quantitative approach with some qualitative judgement, diversification is my only protection.

Yea... I missed it out... There are a lot of other companies I own as well but did not include in the stock pick...

Yea... oversold sentiment.... but they are not involved that much in upstream... mostly supplying to downstream and maintenance. Their pumps will still be in demand regardless of oil prices... this is market irrationality.. furthermore, they have big chunk of earnings in SGD which bode well in weak RM environment...

what a great chance to load up on some TURBO.... dont understand why market is prcing it so cheaply... furthermore 5 sen divvy is coming up in the coming quarter

Thanks. Got it...

Posted by imoogi99 > Jan 28, 2015 09:45 AM | Report Abuse

Buy PR at 0.305...Then subscribe RPS at RM1. Total cost=RM1.305 and receive 2 free warrants.
On listing of warrants and RPS, warrant price at 0.26 and RPS price at 0.96.
Sell all and receive RM1.48. Who going to give 0.175 sen gain in this short 1 mth period?


May I know how you calculate the warrant price at 0.26 ?

Icon888, good compilation, I suggest if you want to filter down further just go here
http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/

Then select Ace counter and other filters you want like PE,ROE etc.

Seems like no one visited here for very long time.... Very undervalued company at current price.

Graham net-net valuation of SMI BS value Wt Liq value Per share
Cash and cash equivalent 39606 100% 39606 0.19
Short term investments 0 100% 0 0.00
Land held for property development 7089 100% 7089 0.03
*Available for sale financial assets 28446 50% 14223 0.07
Investment properties 29153 100% 29153 0.14
Inventories 25992 50% 12996 0.06
Trade Account Receivables 34504 75% 25878 0.12
**Property, plant and equipment 46360 50% 23180 0.11
Other investments/deferred tax assets 739 0% 0 0.00
Total assets 211889
Total liabilities 66170 100% 66170 0.32
Total equity 145719 0
Number of shares 209940
Net tangible asset per share 0.69 0.41

Closing price 0.165
MOS 59.70%
Upside potential 148.14%

* A big chunk is in unquoted shares of a subsidiary in NZ involved in property development. As it is not marked to market and impairment is at discretion of directors, apply a 50% discount
** The main office building is located in KL and has not been revalued since the 90s carrying book value of RM28.6mil. Take the book value

Interesting. If you can show a preview on how net net stocks have performed using some back tested data in bursa Malaysia, I would seriously consider buying your book. Such studies are extremely lacking in markets like Malaysia

wake up already... the coming quarter will be good with the property segment contribution increasing and also the improving margins from auto parts business.

the 3rd scenario is a bit unrealistic, with RM 100 bil , you wont be able to continue making 60% p.a. as the capital has grown too big... In fact I think 15% is already a very difficult task if we re talking about a 30 year time frame...

The drop in crude oil prices may only benefit them for the short term as they need to pass the cost down to the customers eventually.

Calvin, though I may have differences with you in terms of your stock picks, I agree that the concept of deep value investing has been a proven one for the long term. The only problem of applying this technique is that you must have the psychological strength to stick to your guns in the long term.

With these type of stocks, it is better to diversify across at least 10 to 20 of them to increase the chances of success. I hv no confidence on my ability to judge management or their intentions.

well lets be fair in comparisons. FACB only became negative enterprise stock after disposing its steel business in 2013, to make comparisons prior to that may not be relevant. for past 2 yrs it slightly underperform klci while past 5 yrs it still outperform klci based on the yahoo charts. From a NNWC valuation standpoint , Kuchai does have more margin of safety, but if you look at historical p/b, FACB is trading at a steeper discount to its historical p/b, hence may offer higher upside should there be a mean reversion...

Hv u compared witb TONG HERR ? Somewhat similar business. How do the valuations compare ?

Raider, fully agree on your points on limiting the leverage but I like the use of leverage especially for this one

7) ARBITRAGE WHERE YOUR CASH RETURN IS LOCK IN AT A FIXED RETURN

Think about it, SPACs trading below cash level with certainty that cash will be returned to shareholders. If the return p.a expected from this investment exceeds the interest rate the bank, I would use leverage to buy this. Of course there is always a risk that banks can designate or reduce the SPACs collateral value so I would still limit the leverage exposure to avoid having to top up. Diversification and moderation is the key.

I wonder what they will do with the cash from the privatization... hopefully this brightens the prospect of a higher takeover price for PRKCORP

Icon888 not pro la... Learn from My FA guru Mr KC Chong.

The one with the highest non operating assets is LTKM. A better measure of efficiency is ROIC rather than ROE since debt can skew the ROE. LTKM has RM2.5 worth of non operating excess xash and investments. The ROIC is 33pct and the EV/EBIT is only 3x at current prices. For me Ltkm is the best one and I actually own some. I do agree that this is a no moat business. The bulk of their costs are derived from soy bean and corn which are the feed. Starting from a high base last year, the possibility for a mean reversion is high.

the logs are sourced locally from Sabah...

http://www.zelan.com/newsdetails.php?PageId=Ng==&subPageId=&NewsId=Mjc=
Price is within what you said... haha just for the fun... is it it ?

Zelan

Posted by kcchongnz > Jan 6, 2015 03:23 PM | Report Abuse

Noby,

You may think that I nag nag and nag. But I think my most useful contribution to i3investor, if any, will be this thingy.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/44344.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/61822.jsp

KC, not at all. I see it as good reminder to keep me in check. I may have acquired a lot of FA knowledge from you but very far from your level in terms of investment psychology. This is something I cannot learn from books.

KC, agree with you. Again thanks for reminder on margin financing.. But for NNNWC types, I would only buy if there is a good chance value can be unlocked. If it pays a good dividend, I dont mind holding for long term but if tht is absent, I would trade it in the short term to realize some gain. Tk a look at Kuchai and PMcorp as examples.. its hard to make money here without some trading

NNWC companies are easy to analyze but definitely hard to make money in short term. Sometimes we must take partial profit on any spike in price to reduce the opportunity cost.

you can look at their cash conversion cycle times over a extended period to understand if there is anything fishy. But cashflow cant be judged from 2 quarters, that I can tell you. Beneish M score is good way to look at manipulation of earnings

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beneishmodel.asp

LIONFIB is valued based on NNWC whereby most of their assets are stuck in receivables to related parties (some hidden within trade receivables). The serious red flag for me in LIONFIB is that major shareholder keep selling the shares even though it looked very undervalued.