1) Eps of FY13=19sens, current price RM3.7. PE= 3.7/0.19=19.5x.

2) 冷眼前辈的投资原则是：成长一般的股票，本益比若走到15倍以上，就不再买进，20倍以上，就毫不犹豫的脱售. (分享锦集：再谈何时卖股•冷眼 21Oct2011; KLCI:1438 http://www.nanyang.com/node/392125?tid=808 )

3) In Mar 2014, CEO of GTronic, Mr王合利预计，该公司在2015至2017年或可取得4至8%的年度增长率。(http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/temperature_probe/47663.jsp).

So do you think GTronic is 成长一般的股票 ? You make your own wise judgment.

I choose to let the profit to run by itself with risk to return some of the profit earned earlier.

Good luck.

Then, any further upside for GTronic ?

.........

分享锦集：20Jan2013 东益电子(RM1.70)的十亿梦●冷眼. http://www.nanyang.com/node/505130

In that article, 冷眼钱辈forecasted share price of GTronic will be at RM3.70 in 2016 with the realization of its CEO’s dream in bringing mkt cap to RM1 bil. With today’s close, the targeted price has been achieved 18 months earlier. Special thanks to the hot bull.

Sigh ! if only I were fully followed advice from 冷眼 to invest in RM1.7mil, I would have earned RM2mil in 16 months. Then, I can retire liau loh, do not need to guess the windy mood of boss each day.

Anyway I am still very grateful to have earned great return since then.

How about you ?

If the upcoming quarterly report is unfortunately and severely affected by the hike in electric tariff, water rationing and depressed demand etc, the share price would likely be adjusted downward. Hopefully it goes down to below 6.00 for few days so that I can accumulate more. In my opinion, the greatest leader in the industry will not dull for long time; it will certainly rise and shine again soon. Any price downward correction is short term and offers opportunity for long term investor to enter.

The most interesting post I have ever seen in i3. Learn things with excitement. He! He!

"i dont wanna think what country can do for me, i just wanna think what i can do for country."

This is Not Applicable in Boleh Land.

原来也是炎黃子孫，有一份格外的亲切感。嗨!你好。
我只是回应作者的信息，好文章是该给予支持的。尽一份綿力而已。
牛熊是最难拿捏得淮。
祝你发财。

传说而已。不必当真啦。
信者有之，疑者无也。身在洶湧股海,小心驶得万年船.

Great to see the real fortunebullz(senior bull)is back.

Thanks for the very fair statement.
I opine that there are not many people want to admit that their money making shares have been cooked and therefore take profit. I also have an opinion that only a few can control their greed. Most of the people in the current market are greedy. It is very sad to say that I am included. Sigh! Said is much easier than done.

有个传说：当巴刹的安娣安哥也在讨论股市时，也是最好的退场时机。

Imenwe : Thank you very much. I am driving while reading your posts, cannot read in detail. Will read again after work. I like TSH too but dare not to buy as feel it is expensive. Thanks again.

Hi Imenwe: your assessment on plantation is highly respected after reading many of them in Dali’s blog years ago to now in i3. At once I even suspect that you are a professional stocks analyst.

I still remember you did recommend one plantation stock listed in S’pore(First Resource). However as I only buy stocks in Bursa, would you mind to recommend few M’sia plantation stocks?

Most importantly, I am very keen to know your insight on the current trend of CPO ?

Thank you very much.

Hi Imenwe : I read this point : 馬股估值昂貴
馬股昂貴，不是隨便信口開河，這可是憑著世界股神巴菲特所引用的其中一項估值標准所得結論。這項標准即是，一個股市的市值與國家生產總值的比例，若是超過100%，就顯示有關股市估值過高或昂貴。馬股在2013年預估的市值——國家生產總值比例，就高達160.2%，甚至比英國股市的153.3%，以及美國股市的143.1%還要來得高。

I liked many of you posts since in Dali's blog years ago. Could you please share your view on the above point : 馬股估值昂貴.

Thank you very much.

Hi KC Chong: I do not opine that it is your responsibility to update regularly the status of the “recommended” (replace with "discussed" if you dislike the word recommended) stock. Nevertheless when I saw your comment pops up at the right time to share your view on the significant change on share performance, I were touched with your generosity and good deed. THANK YOU VERY MUCH !!!

Cweed : Happy making money in Karex. No matter whatever valuation is, money making is the rightest valuation. Let's us see it to go up to 3.50 again.

My humble opinion:

Price of IPO five months ago was set at RM1.85. After adjustment with 1:2 bonus issues, the IPO price is RM1.23. If the fair value of the company is really at RM3 or higher as perceived by the hot market, why did the mgt so naively set the IPO price 59% lower at RM1.23 (adj with bonus)?
Please do not argue that it is now Karex has an aggressive capacity expansion plan which pushes up the valuation. People with biz sense know that any capacity expansion is not planned overnight; instead it was planned even before the IPO.

The possible explanation is that the company values itself at RM1.23 which to me is a reasonable valuation. However the hot bull and high sentiment want it to be much higher with all kind of justification. Thus it is now traded at ~ RM3.00.

There is no right or wrong answer here. You want to value it at RM3 or higher, as long as the market agrees with you, it values at RM3 or higher.

Cheers! Happy trading in Karex.

correction :mkt cap is about RM1.1 bil.

Hi Mr Stockraider : Welcome you with red carpet.
I cannot wait any longer to read your posts on fundamental investment school and margin of safety in return. Since today is a sunny holiday, how about kindly posts up couple of good articles to relieve thirsty for good knowledge. Thank you very much.

“Posted by confirm > Apr 19, 2014 04:12 PM : believe me, karex sure drop to RM2....then a few month lagi drop to RM1.20..........!!! “

I am not comfortable too when reading the above aggressive comment without explanation. However when I take a step backward and ponder deeper, his prediction has its own base and is one of the possibility. Thks to Mr confirm.

Here is my humble valuation and explanation :
Q114 eps =-2.29sens(-1.52 adjusted after bonus). Q2= 4.44 sens(2.96 adjusted). Let's assume eps for the next 2 qtrs grow by 50% from Q2 to 4.44 sens each. Yearly eps =-1.52+2.96+4.44+4.44=10.31 sens.

Karex is a newly listed company without proven track record. Its mkt cap at RM1.1 mil with annual earning less than RM100 mil is considered small company. For these two reasons, the fair valuation is PE 7x- 10X. Thus the fair value of Karex is RM1.03(PE10X). This valuation is applicable only in “Not Bull mkt”.

However it is now a hot bull market with high sentiment and lenient valuation, the above valuation is not application and is a laughing stock of the day. "Pai Shei"

After ex bonus, Targeted Price for Karex by CIMB on 27 Mar 2014 is RM3.38.

3.38/3.12=8% upside only if you are to follow TP by CIMB. Does 8% upside worth the risk associated ?

TP RM5.07 is on 24Feb2014 which is prior bonus issue.

Hi Firebird2 and apprentice: very inspiring sharing from both of you, thank you very much. My meaning of “END” here is the end of BULL market lah.

I always think if tomorrow is the end of Bull, what disaster will my portfolio be ?

I also ponder three times when thinking of switching my Blue Chips to the more exciting counters.

If I am not mistaken, close to 100% of products from the main gloves manufacturers such as TG, KS, HT, SM are exported. Only those 2nd grade gloves are sold in local markets more to recover product cost instead of profit oriented. In fact the top company such as HT has almost no second grade gloves for sale. Therefore no matter if M’sia has the above mentioned outbreak, it is not so relevant to the sale of the quoted main gloves manufacturers.

If I am not mistaken, close to 100% of products from the main gloves manufacturers such as TG, KS, HT, SM are exported. Only those 2nd grade gloves are sold in local markets more to recover product cost instead of profit oriented. In fact the top company such as HT has almost no second grade gloves for sale. Therefore no matter if M’sia has the above mentioned outbreak, it is not so relevant to the sale of the quoted main gloves manufacturers.

Hi Firebird2 and apprentice : the main point to share is “Begin with the End in Mind”. What is your view on this phrase ?

“pays next to nothing in dividends” is the thorn in investing in Genting and GenM. I hate it.

FireBird2 : Ai yoh.... you have looked me too high up lah. For the past years, I bought quite a lot of MBB at difference times but unluckily not any at lower than 7.80. I made small profit from MBB with the highest return at 14%. That was why I concluded that MBB would not give exciting capital gain even for long term investment except if you are very lucky to enter at very low prices in 2008-09. Unfortunately I have never had that luck loh.

Neverthelesss, I feel very “shiok” as there is somebody looking me up. I owe you one coffee. Thank you very much.

"if you are not losing money in the market, you are already winning"

Ha! Ha! I like this one a lot. It is a very great consolation words. Thank you very much.

I choose to hold tight to Blue Chips as I believe they are much more reliable when big bear massacre. “Begin with the End in Mind”.

南洋财经,2014-04-19泰国联昌首季赚4420万, 净利报捷扬41% ; http://www.nanyang.com/node/615211?tid=462

Hello : pls be informed that our beloved CIMB delivered great profit from Thai. Will this be a long overdue booster to share price on Monday ?
Have CIMB PT(Indo) announced its qtr earning ?

南洋财经, 2014-04-19泰国联昌首季赚4420万, 净利报捷扬41%
http://www.nanyang.com/node/615211?tid=462

Doing biz in the same environment in Thailand, while CIMBThai can increase profit significantly, I puzzle why Zhulian is terribly poor in biz earning. As said before, the miserable deterioration of Zhulian’s earning is still a mystery; it is certainly not purely caused by political turmoil in Thailand.

Kam Siah, Toll Zher, Xie Xie, Terima Kasih, TQ, Arigato, Namri.

Hi Firebird2 : Ha! Ha ! I were beaten by monkey, I would better stay in zoo instead of screeching around. “Beaten general, should not boast around”.
However I like to read your posts. Thks for your frequent good posts.

Hi FireBird2 : It is very great to have chance to cross with you here. Thks for your comment.
I read lots of your comments on Welcall. If I have had invested in Welcall with capital from Blue Chips, I would have laughed very loud all the way to bank. In fact, I have had many Welcall at 0.90 sens in 2009 but at some time switched it to Blue Chips prior its huge rise. It was a very unfortunate and sour decision.

I understand the biz of Welcall quite well; I believe one fine day we will cross again at Welcall if by then you are still there.

This is my calculation method:
In your earlier post, you have got the 6% discount for DRP (9.83-0.31=9.52; 9.52-8.95=0.57; 0.57/9.52=6%). Your entitlement for 10000 shares is RM270 x 10= RM2700/8.95=301 shares. After that you sell 301 shares at 9.52=RM2865. Thus your actual extra profit is 2865-2700=RM165 only vs. pure cash div.

“Any Monkey Can Beat The Market”.
I echo that one should seriously learn and practise proper investment in equity to at least preserve the value of the hard earned money.

I read an article that “Any Monkey Can Beat The Market”. When cross referring to my own trades record, I am shame to admit that I were beaten by monkey. However if excluding those trades with tips, my performance would at par with monkey if not better than monkey.
So, please invest either with proper skills or learn from monkey but NEVER from tips.


FORBES - PERSONAL FINANCE 12/20/2012 @ 9:05AM |7,561 views
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/

Any Monkey Can Beat The Market

Give a monkey enough darts and they’ll beat the market. So says a draft article by Research Affiliates highlighting the simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. The average monkey outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 percent per year since 1964.

当已经爱了N年的最爱无原无故变得酸酸的。一时措手不及，不懂如何面对。继续爰?放弃?忠诚?等待?五味杂陈!
神呀！救救我吧!

I echo that comments of Pak Lah are great.

I do not know much about Parkson but one thing that its retails biz in China is facing very strong wind. I do not know how much this will hit its financial prospect.

For the last many years in Bursa I have an impression(maybe a false one due to my own short-knowledge) that companies managed by TAN SRI WILLIAM has not doing as well as his great name. As an ordinary, I chose to avoid Parkson.

Hi apprentice: 10000 shares, 270 x 10 =RM2700 for DRP.
5.99% discount x 2700= RM161 extra earning vs. option with 100% cash div.

Since you are in MBB for long term and you have 10000 shares, odd shares is not an issue as the odd shares will be added up very fast each time DRP is given, thus taking up DRP is a good choice in your case.
I have the same case on DRP of CIMB as I have more CIMB shares and am holding it for long term. Whereas my MBB is separated into different accounts, with less qty in each acc thus it is not worth for me to take up DRP of MBB.

It is sad to grumble that my significant amount of capital is invested in CIMB and MBB which overall give me positive return but far behind the performance of broader market. It is very frustrating. Nevertheless I am still holding tight to the principle of investing in strong blue chips for long term.

不如你代你哥哥做完剩下的四年首相.

经济教育公仆日逊色 纳西尔： 马须求变振雄风 2014-04-19
http://www.nanyang.com/node/615063?tid=643

纳西尔在Monash大学商业及经济学院毕业典礼上发表献词。

（吉隆坡18日讯）联昌国际总执行长拿督斯里纳西尔坦承，我国经济、公务员素质和教育等比其他国家逊色；只有求变，才能重振昔日光辉。
纳西尔亲自撰写了一篇题为“求变”（Be That Change）的文章，《南洋商报》是唯一授权刊登的中文报。
大幅落后韩国狮城
他形容，我国正处关键时刻，人民的任何决定都将主宰国家将陷入中等收入陷阱（middle-income trap），还是朝向高收入国。
他举例，1980年，国人均国内生产总值（GDP per capita）为1800美元、韩国和新加坡分别为1700美元和5000美元。
“今时今日，大马虽已有相当大的进展，但却大大落后于韩国和新加坡。”
如今，大马人均国内生产总值为1万400美元（约3万3700令吉），韩国和新加坡分别为2万3800美元（约7万7000令吉）和5万2900美元（约17万1300令吉）。
改变从政府做起
纳西尔不久前出席Monash大学商业及经济学院毕业典礼，在演讲时也分享了这篇文章中的心声，并一再强调：“大马必须求变。”
“当然，这必须先从政府做起。”
体育也逐步下滑
除了经济，纳西尔表示，与其他国家比较，我国在其他方面如公务员品质、教育等都状况不佳，甚至在体育方面也逐步下滑。
他表示，政府也拥有同样的观点，并“改革”为国家品牌作出调整，推出各种项目如一个马来西亚计划（1Malaysia）、经济转型执行方案（ETP）、政府转型计划（GTP）以及新经济模式（NEM）等，甚至反对党也主张改变。
详文请购阅《南洋商报》

Unfortunately, Malaysia and Genting were not mentioned in the article.

Both GenM and Genting have very great global biz expansion plan since many years ago and the expansion train is still well moving worldwide. However the shares prices of both are significantly lagging behind the broader market. It is contradicting with its status of the renowned blue chips of Bursa.

WHY ???

Hi hwtham : MBSB and MBB are two losers in my portfolio. Coincidentally, I saw your comments on both. Hopefully you have made some paper gain from both instead of the same case as me, entered at high price. I wish you great luck in investing.

Hi apprentice : first of all, nice to meet you in cyberspace.

Wah ! you were very lucky to have MBB at its almost lowest point for the last 15 years at ~RM4 in 2009. I envy your great luck very much.

On the other hand, my own luck were far behind yours as I have MBB in Dec2005@RM11.3, May 2011@RM8.60, Sep 2010@RM7.80 and Aug2014@RM9.98.

Referring to my track record, I conclude that MBB give me good dividend and consistency, but very slow on capital gain.

I have few times fallen to temptation from the sexy counters outside and let MBB goes. Sigh ! ”骚婆守不住寡”.

Hi hwtham : First of all, nIce to meet you in cyberspace.

Q: Can I do the below calculation ?

Excluding all fees, the extra benefit by taking up DRP vs. cash div is 5.99%x270=RM16. Investment cost is 9.83 with assumption that I bought on 18/Apr/14, the extra return from DRP is 16/9830=0.164%.
Thks

To small shareholders of MBB : DO NOT TAKE UP DRP but take cash dividend for maximum benefit:

If I have 1000 shares of MBB, I am given 2 options :
Option 1 : 0.31 sens in cash.
Option 2: 0.27sens for DRP + 0.04 sens in cash.

DRP : 0.27 sens = RM270. Stamp duty + fees=RM15.5 (PB=15.5, I heard HL charges 24);
Net re-investable = 270-15.5=RM254.50.

Discount = 5.99%.
(Assume the closing price prior ex is 9.83. 9.83-0.31=9.52. DRP @ 8.95. Discount = (9.52-8.95)/9.52=5.99%)

Extra benefit from DRP= 5.99% x RM254.50=RM15.23 (Petty)

ODD SHARES received from DRP=28.4 shares(254.50/8.95).

After DRP, I have = 1000+28.4=1028 ODD shares + RM40

For the extra petty RM15.23, I have to carry ODD shares which are difficult to sell. It is not worth, thus I would not take up DRP.

1000 shares=28 ODD shares = extra petty benefit RM15.23.
2000 shares=58 ODD shares = extra petty benefit RM31.4.
3000 shares=73 ODD shares = extra petty benefit RM39.23.
4000 shares=118 ODD shares = extra petty benefit RM63.76

哗KC大佬：太神了！您所选的股项，几乎百发百中。Pintaras, KFima, 肥bon，Prestariang等等。早知道一开始跟着您就行啦，何必自己如此辛苦提心吊胆的在股海浮沉。

如此功力，是该住在仙島揮揮掍，追逐小白球，看看綿羊结隊吃草。

您是最好的!

美國‧芝加哥18/4/2014日訊(sinchew daily): 紐約金價17日跌破每盎司1300美元。

This is a hit to the recovery route of ZhuZhu. When I can buy the real gold (jewelry) at lower price, the attractiveness of coated jewelry by ZhuZhu is much lower.
I GUESS ZhuZhu will drop to below 2.50 very soon. My targeted entry price is below 2.00, but can it goes so low?

I agreed that MBB is a very good and safe counter for long term investment with high and consistent dividend payout, strong brand name, healthy financial numbers, regional growth, highly regulated by Bank Negara(Zeti), strong shareholders(Khazanah=ASB), the role as barometer of economy of M’sia etc.

However the trend of the share price is very passive and slow, ranging about 9.60 to 10.20 in the last twelve months (do not factor in dividend). Investing in MBB requires a lot of patient and should focus mainly on dividend and not too much on capital gain; else you will frustrate seeing other counters flying high whereas your beloved MBB is crawling on the ground likes tortoise.

Can it be pre-accumulation by big bosses prior announcement on bonus issue. If we refer back to the past three years, bonus issue was announced in July and ex in Oct each year.