Posted by lmenwe > 2014-04-21 02:33 | Report Abuse

别听他乱说。根本就是他为了海外基金没时间买马股。没有便宜货？cbip是什么？dutch lady是什么？gtronic是什么？scientex是什么？allianz是什么？l&g是什么？怎么冷眼一直都有目标呢？他才是根正苗红的老格信徒！

Posted by Huang > 2014-04-21 07:00 | Report Abuse

Hi Imenwe : I read this point : 馬股估值昂貴
馬股昂貴，不是隨便信口開河，這可是憑著世界股神巴菲特所引用的其中一項估值標准所得結論。這項標准即是，一個股市的市值與國家生產總值的比例，若是超過100%，就顯示有關股市估值過高或昂貴。馬股在2013年預估的市值——國家生產總值比例，就高達160.2%，甚至比英國股市的153.3%，以及美國股市的143.1%還要來得高。

I liked many of you posts since in Dali's blog years ago. Could you please share your view on the above point : 馬股估值昂貴.

Thank you very much.

Posted by Huang > 2014-04-21 07:13 | Report Abuse

Hi Imenwe: your assessment on plantation is highly respected after reading many of them in Dali’s blog years ago to now in i3. At once I even suspect that you are a professional stocks analyst.

I still remember you did recommend one plantation stock listed in S’pore(First Resource). However as I only buy stocks in Bursa, would you mind to recommend few M’sia plantation stocks?

Most importantly, I am very keen to know your insight on the current trend of CPO ?

Thank you very much.

Posted by lmenwe > 2014-04-21 07:29 | Report Abuse

well i will agree to certain extent of the author's point of view. the market is expensive now but that doesn't mean we can't invest or there is no under value counters for us to grab. i know sounds like 马后炮，but mr fong（冷眼）had been recommending dozens of counters since 2009/2010. You can refer to icon8888's article he is the man! He had recommended quite a number of undervalue property counters! However I feel that we should be cautious now! Almost every counter that I like goes up! The investors seems super confident on the future.

Posted by lmenwe > 2014-04-21 07:44 | Report Abuse

Regarding plantation counters I always love TSH for its highest yield wakuba breed, young tree age profiles and large tract of unplanted land! However I have to admit that I am an idiot for not buying this counter! I always aim for price correction after cash call but it never happen!

The most undervalue plantation counter is MKH recommended by Mr Fong (冷眼）, the market had totally ignored its plantation segment. In the past even you assign the worst pricing for its plantation segment the fair value should be much higher than the market value. I know I am 马后炮, but this shows how good Mr Fong is and it show how much my respect to him!

For CPO price, I should admit I am an idiot for ignoring the warnings from weather forecasters! According to forecast there is more than 50% chance El Nino will occur. Australia forecaster even said the chance is more than 70%. Most of them agree that there will be drought during June - October. This may sent CPO price above RM 3,500 per tonne if it really happen. In my opinion I believe it will happen and CPO should be bullish at least until March 2015. I strongly recommend you follow the weather news closely.

For plantation counter as I said before I still prefer SG counter for their lower valuation, costing and higher quality. No doubt MKH is good but at the current price I am not comfortable. TSH is good but I am too lazy to value it so I can't give you a concrete comment on it.

Posted by Huang > 2014-04-21 08:01 | Report Abuse

Imenwe : Thank you very much. I am driving while reading your posts, cannot read in detail. Will read again after work. I like TSH too but dare not to buy as feel it is expensive. Thanks again.

Posted by Ntpboon > 2014-04-21 08:28 | Report Abuse

Imenwe, 非常佩服你对种植股深入浅出的分析。 I'm a newbie to plantation stock, just wonder FR with current price (2.48)is still a buy ? What's its IV ? Is other SG plantation counter better value than FR now ? Thanks !

Posted by lmenwe > 2014-04-21 09:16 | Report Abuse

I also prefer bumitama as 75% of its trees are below prime. The average tree profile is 7.5 years. And it still have a large tract of unplanted land. However there is limit for Indonesia planters to 100k ha of land. The growth is there but we have to watch out on the debt accumulation. The cash is depleting significantly and debts are accumulating despite they just listed on 2012.

For First Resources last time I had calculated the fair value is around SGD 2.2 but I have to recalculate as there are quite a number of flaws. To me it is comfortable as my entry price is around SGD 1.81. First Resources had more than 100k of unplanted land. They also have downstream refinery business like biodiesel and cooking oil. The management had mentioned that they will diversify into rubber planting in future.

At the current price I will not recommending first resources. Even though bumitama's valuation is higher but I think it has higher growth in the next few years.

I will recalculate my fair value for both and post it here later but bear in mind everything is purely my personal opinion no recommendation for buy/sell.

Posted by Ntpboon > 2014-04-21 10:00 | Report Abuse

Imenwe, Thank you very much !

Posted by choe > 2014-05-05 01:07 | Report Abuse

hi Imenwe, may i know what is "biglogical asset" all about? how does it affect the valuation for plantation company? thanks in advance