OTB sifu,

well said

if it is right , then it can not be wrong

not necessary to prove the right is right

stay undisturbed

then you enjoy true peace of mind

A very good reminder.


Warn3r: "So if you’re ever right, please remember that it doesn’t automatically mean that others are wrong"

30% increase in sale volume is quite realistic goal, isn't very demanding

very good sharing. thanks.

from 350 to 250 already a good discount

probability sifu,

this is your strength or strong point , this estimation is very useful
we need to know lionind earning potential before we buy
you have provided a good estimation with reasonable assumptions.

probability sifu,


this information shared by you is very useful. thanks





probability : https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=BRL&to=MYR&view=1Y

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=1Y

Since Labuan HBI plant buys Iron Ore from Vale (Brazilian currency weakening against RM) and sells in USD....

we can see why its becoming increasing profitable.

and will stay profitable...as even the supplier from Brazil is profiting!


https://www.reuters.com/article/vale-results-idUSL2N17V0B5
18/06/2018 21:19

probability sifu,

please correct me if there is any misinterpretation

thanks

a summary of calculation shared by probability sify

2017 Margin per ton = RM 150

2018 estimated margin =RM250

an increase of 66.7% compared with 2017


2017 sale volume = 450000 ton

2018 estimated sale volume = 600000 ton

an increase of 30%


2017 eps = ( . )

2018 estimated eps = 22 cents by Labuan HBI plant alone.

OTB sifu

你这个夸奖太假了



Ooi Teik Bee probability,
Good work.
You really light up my life.
Thank you.
Ooi
18/06/2018 21:03

Good work

Good estimation

But

Need to improve your presentation

I am not proving you wrong

I am just figuring out what you had shared

2017 Margin per ton = RM 150

2018 estimated margin =RM250

This is not a decrease in profit margin of 50% but an increase of 66.7% compared with 2017

450000 x130%=585000

=600000

Your 600000 = 750000 x 80%

I did not say you are wrong, I am just trying to figure out what you said

Probability,

"(at 50% discount on its Margin expansion but rise of 30% in throughput to reach 80% utilization of plant capacity)"


Do you mean

1. Profit margin is reduced 50%
2. Sale volume increased 30%
3. Plant utility 80%

I am not talking the figure is right or wrong

I am trying hard to understand what exactly you are trying to tell us.

Probability,

This explanation by you also quite vague, quite difficult to understand exactly what you wish to convey


"(at 50% discount on its Margin expansion but rise of 30% in throughput to reach 80% utilization of plant capacity)"

Probability,

I am not questioning the validity of the figures you used in your calculation.

I am just asking why the first part of the calculation you used half the plant throughput to derive the profit margin, why not the full throughput?

I believe not many here can understand why?

Other than this there is nothing wrong with you calculation. It is simple and straightforward
Thanks.

probability,

you calculation is quite simple

you assumption is also quite easy to understand

there are only 2 questions hope you will kindly provide some explanation .


THANK YOU




67 Million profit in 2017 when:

(1) at old margin in 2017 when Scrap Steel - Iron ore difference was 250 USD/ton.

(2) at half the plant throughput at 270,000 tonnes/yr

Margin per ton = RM 250 (67M/270 k tonnes)

.......................................................

Question1 : why half the throughput?

........................................................................................................

Current difference between Scrap Steel - Iron Ore = 300 USD/ton

Now, lets not expect the margin to shot up by 50 USD/ton...lets just give 50% discount, say improvement is only 25 USD/ton meaning improvement by RM 100/ton

New Margin per ton = RM 350

Say also, the throughput is increased to 400,000 tonnes/year as demand for volume follows margin

.......................................................

Question2 : why no half a throughput now ?

.................................................................


Profit in 2018:
.............

Profit = 400,000 tonnes/yr x (RM 350/ton)

= 140 Million/yr

EPS of 20 cents for 2018 by Labuan HBI plant alone.

so you still need my sifu KYY to make your earning looks meaningful

that is called "MONEY SENSE"

my sifu explained to me in private not openly here

what move the price ?

if you ask a TA man ,

price is decided by the buyers not the earning .



if you ask a FA man

market is the weighing machine

probability,

it would be better if discard the redundant words "understandable"..."comprehensible"..."tolerable"

what do you think?


probability : posted again paper with some england correction...

Halite, please let me know my comments are readable...understandable...comprehensible...tolerable to you?
18/06/2018 17:39

Henly,

you forget to say "thank you" to OTB, he had saved your profit



Henly :Last year, KYY wanted to buy masteel, but he wanted to buy at very very very low price so he wrote the above report to trigger panic selling but it didn't happen because OTB @#$%^&*(
Believe it or not up to you.

charlesT

you are very pandai. you can read my mind



CharlesT If koon needs to find money for the coming rights issues of jaks warrant he has to find a way to make money
18/06/2018 17:26

you will make mistake if you think you will not lose

Najib maid run away

why?

qqq3,

I do not follow my sifu recommendation to buy sendai and jaks

this round

I follow KCChong and OTB sifu

we must be grateful to otb

he is honest and truthful

without his support,

lionind should be trading at 0.7 today not 0.88

if he switch to annjoo , then I get angpow not just cup of coffee

do not attack my sifu KYY lah....

he is a good man

why I follow my sifu strategy and i make money but you don't

can it be.....

the problem is you not my sifu.

that is why

my sifu said

if you are stupid, you can not be rich

my sifu 's sifu is Mahatir now

don't play play

probability,

you should correct your shakespeare english, frankly speaking you like to put too many thing in one sentence that make your sentence very difficult to understand by a satay man like me

the fund managers will come back after hari raya

hari raya for the muslim lasts for 1 month

paper,

any impact on lionind or annjoo

now have become our after hari raya focus

qqq3,


don't kacau otb,

he is actual a nice man

he is more generous to share information than KC

but KYY need money to pay income tax

I will convince him to agree that lionind is next hengyuan

I am waiting for my sifu KYY buy call

without my sifu buy call, do not hope to see any meaningful wonder will happen

not the earning can move the price , it is my sifu who can move the price

sifu....

where are you?

forward PE 2 only

keep in the car = bye-bye when you have arrived at your destination

keep at home = still love her when she still takes care of me

learn?

not fucking this and that , here and there everyday

my recommendation

buy lionind as your girlfriend , keep in the car

buy annjoo as your wife , keep at home

yes , no personal attack

how can you feel the attack if you do not take it as an attack ?

why you take an attack an attack ?

you still want to tell the whole world you are perfect

you still demand others to treat you the way you want

if you are right , then it can not be wrong

what to prove ?

just share with us your wisdom, then the good karma will never disappoint you

Amitabha......

hengyuan showed dramatic earning, at the end it was exploited by some smart investors to convince you to buy at 10, 12, 14, 16, 18.....
now all the way down to 6

I see the annjoo 60% DP is safe

I see annjoo forecast of the coming quarter result will not be good due to long holiday is safe

I don't see any margin of safety with a PE2 here and I believe WC also do not feel as safe as well

otb subscribers already stuck here , can hardly move the price anymore

I am waiting KYY to promote , then I can tumpang a bit

if no KYY involvement , then it is so big so small with the PE 2, PE3, PE4......then suddenly no more PE

Peter,

Fast money =gambling

DO NOT BE TOO ANXIOUS TO WIN

Plan to win big not plan to win fast

Remember :
3 years make 100% is better than every year 30%

Sound not so correct or good right?

Why?

Try to think seriously about what I said.

Peter,
Do not borrow money to invest

Only invest with an amount you can afford to lose

Do not focus on the price, focus on the business

Since you are new, noone has the obligation to teach you, so you must learn to express yourself in a proper way

You must be a newbie.

the whole world knows limkangcheng is buying and you tell me that you do not know

If limkanghoo or limkangcheng is selling then I am worry

If other kacang putih is selling then I just watch

But Limkangcheng is buying wor....

Why should i run?

You win because you have a right strategy

You win not because you have a good pick