Hi probability, Thanks for the explaination.
Total expenses after GP (ie manufacturing, Adm, Dep & Amortisation, Finance) was $95M for Q1 2022, $100M per qtr average for 2021 and $106M per qtr average for 2020. Your $80+100 M = $180M expenses for Q2 is well above the actual in recent qtrs and therefore with huge buffer built-in.

Your estimated GP is $1,056 M
less hedging loss ($100M)
less Expenses ($180M)
-------------------------------------
PBT $776M

Tax $100m @24% ($24M)
Tax $676M @33% ($223M)
-----------------------------------------
NPAT $529M
EPS $1.76

The upside are :
1. lower expenses than the $180M built-in the calculation
2. Higher GP from significantly higher Diesel yield (46 vs 34%) and lower Fuel oil.

The reservation i have if the Management's actual hedging deviate from the model described by you. Let's wait for the QR with much excitement.


We look forward to the exciting QR.

A special purpose vehicle will be formed by the government to take over BNS relieving Bstead holdings and LTAT from the burden. In the end , rakyat food the bills.

Bplant, the gem within the group may have to be sold eventually to fill the holes.

@probability,
The crack spreads data for 2nd qtr are all available.
Based on the hedging model you have been describing, will you be able to estimate the Q2 hedging consequences?
Pls share .

startofTheBull, Thanks .
Agreed that Bstead holdings and ultimately LTAT will suffer damaging losses if they are finally responsible. The government is thinking of a special purpose vehicle to take over BNS tantamount to relieving Bstead holdings and LTAT of the burden. In the end , the rakyat food the bills.

I am not sure how the LCS fiasco adversely affect Bplant ?


Quote:
Sharifuddin further informed the PAC that if BNS is gone, Boustead Holdings and the Armed Forces Fund Board (LTAT) will be affected severely. Plantations, Pharmaniaga, Boustead Properties and Boustead Hotels all will be affected. It will go as far as LTAT losing up to 46 percent of the fund size. Unquote.

Are you referring the news to the Sinchew news ? I don’t see anything mention about pharmaniaga, plantations, hotels and others ? Have I missed something?

Separating BNS from Bstead holdings is a very good move .

https://newswav.com/A2208_ZqVhOz?s=A_dCXiSmx

Hi Anthony,
it is an interesting view . Is it your suspicions that EPF and PNB May be the hands behind the recent event in HY or you are sure about it ?
It’s unthinkable that EPF/ PNB did it.

I certainly hold the view that syndicated group are responsible for the massive price up and down which can be achieved easily amid nervous market sentiment, poor liquidity of the stock and absence of institution or retail investors support.

EPF/PNB ownership in a stock may not always be the correct benchmark to judge the fundamentals of the stock. EPF/PNB has its own set of criteria and sometimes based on ‘ certain interest’ or national service objective. A few big flops recently include Serba dinamik , Sapura energy ,etc…


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Posted by anthonytkh > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

John, back in 2015 EPF held over 16%. They’d been selling until they now hold just around 2.5%. In 2017, PNB held over 6%. They’d been selling until they now hold around 3.5%

Why did both sell until they are no longer substantial shareholders (ie. that usual “Notice of Person Ceasing” announcement)? Can be a few things… they took profit or they no longer believe in the company and their trades no longer need to be announced (since they’re no longer substantial shareholders)

As for the sharp rise and the subsequent sharp drop, re-read my post above, especially the part where EPF and PNB are no longer substantial shareholders. These two companies are smart operators

Hi Jeri,
Whether johnzhang or OTB is richer than you is really immaterial. Try doing something to enrich your own life is more important and it can be achieved if you keep your head cool and embrace peace in heart.

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Posted by Jerichomy > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

f i am lying, nobody will believe me even if i try to instigate ppl haahahs

I am Not rich like johnzhang and otb hahaha Posted by Jerichomy > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

f i am lying, nobody will believe me even if i try to instigate ppl haahahs

I am Not rich like johnzhang and otb hahaha

@Jerichomy,
No need to instigate others to join in your relentless attacks lah. It doesn’t bring any good to yourself and others.

Please look at things from a positive and reasonable perspective even if you have suffered losses from adopting someone else’s stock recommendations.

On daily basis , you are exposed to stock recommendations or market views from Investment bankers , financial experts , Wall Street analysts , your remisers, your friends and even your family members too. Are you going to attack them relentlessly (including your good friends and family members) if their recommendations or view turn out to be opposite???

I think OTB’s recommendations are sound and most of the recommended stocks including AYS, Hiaptek and HY went up handsomely at certain point of time . These stocks tumbled subsequently due to circumstantial changes to the market that nobody can control. I don’t think he harbors any ill intention to mislead people.

Please restore some harmony and positive energy in i3 forum.
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Posted by Jerichomy > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

I malas nak jawap OTB and make myself so well known.

Ty y, citadel and anthonykh can jawab better than Me !!!

Hi Anthony,
Would you kind enough to share with us what aspect of the shareholding, floats and world scenario that have changed so adversely in both HY and PetronM and resulted steep sell down recently ? May be there is something we can learn from you .
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Posted by anthonytkh > 34 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Dig into shareholdings, floats and world scenario

We have witnessed numerous relentless attacks on a stock or gurus and they were carried out deliberately. It is ok to air opposite views once, twice and even thrice. But when same unsubstantiated things are said over and over again , some even on daily basis is certainly much more than just having different opinions, but bad intentions.
Everyone must be accorded respect for stock recommendations , especially when published facts and figures accompanied. It is entirely the responsibility of the readers to decide if the information or recommendations can be adopted .
Let’s avoid the very toxic exchanges that don’t bring benefits to anyone. Let’s remember that what goes around comes around one day .

Current crack spreads for the various refined fuels, though have come down considerably from recent unsustainable high level, is certainly NOT A DISASTER for refineries. The overall crack spread is still considerably higher than the past 5yrs or 10 yrs average.

What is disastrous is our stock market now is dominated by short term traders, day traders , contra players and short sellers who have NO conviction to the fundamentals of the stocks and they are easily swayed by day to day news and panicked by co-ordinated or syndicated attacks like we witnessed in HY recently.
Syndicates are preying on the nervous market sentiment too.
At he same time ,there isn’t enough serious investors around this time , be it institution or individual, who are ready to absorb the selling pressure .
I think that somewhat caused the panic selling of HY even before crack spread moved down .
We probably will not see euphoria in the stock even if EPS for 2nd qtr is $2.

Time to get greedy when everyone is fearful? Should start thinking about it …….

Everyone is so fearful of Hib as much as HY.

Ular belum baca uncle con punya writeup hari ini kah?

KYY is U-turn expert. Hahaha

Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Wed, 10 Aug 2022, 04:04 PM
The company made the following announcements:

Repsol Asset Acquisition: Completed the trans formative acquisition on 24 January 2022. Assets are expected to almost triple the Group’s net daily oil, gas and condensate production.

Hibiscus expects threefold increase in O&G output due to Repsol deal (Repsol Exploración, S.A)

If the company can triple its oil & gas production why is its share price dropping continuously? It has been dropping in the last 3 months as shown on the chart below.


If Hibiscus can triple its oil & gas production, its share price should be shooting up. If it is really so good, why is it dropping continuously?

I believe its price chart which cannot lie. That Is why I sold all my Hibiscus shares and cut loss

Uncle KYY just declared he has cut lost all his Hib share . Once again, those bought based on his buy call get conned !

Very good . Throw the MM into the garbage bin where she belongs.
This is payback to what MM did to others in other forum.

Bplant 2Q EPS should be around 6 sen from operations.
5sen 2nd interim should be within reach .

My guess for 2nd qtr dividend to be 5sen

Any commodities do well when global economy slow down ? Has crude ever do well during any of the economic crisis in the past ?

MM’s lost is massive from $1.40-$1.50 to 82sen!
Your relentless attack on other counter now coming to bite you real hard .
Remember that what goes around comes around.
Hehehe…

Ural oil is usd68! Brent and WTI will have to fall substantially …

MM , brian3381, Ks5S are holding at cost of $1.40 -$1.50 . Now losing their pants.
Shouting limit up to lure ikan billis …

Don’t catch the failing knives. Crude is yet to bottom…

The 6 LCS multi billion fiasco is being play up again. $6 bil paid but no ship delivered. Don’t know what’s the implication to Bstead holdings who owned BNS ?

Fengshui of Hib looks really bad.
Troubles after troubles
Quarrels after quarrels
With the jinx like MM, brian3381 and Ks5S around Hib is finished..

Run….
1st loss is the best loss ….

Aug 5): Oil headed for a deep weekly loss after collapsing to a six-month low on concern global demand is weakening.

West Texas Intermediate fell below US$88 a barrel in early Asian trading, with the US benchmark down more than 10% this week. Official data showed US gasoline consumption has softened while crude stockpiles rose.

MM and his same kind like brian3381, Ks5S licking their wounds. More pain for them to come ….

MM, brian3381, Ks5S ….
All shitting in their pampers now…
What goes around comes around….

The jinx MM being bad luck lah…..
Everyday tell lies….
What goes around comes around.

NEW YORK (Aug 4): Oil extended declines to the lowest in almost six months, as weaker US gasoline demand and recessionary fears weighed on markets.

West Texas Intermediate dropped below US$90 a barrel, a level last seen in the weeks leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This week’s descent was touched off by government data showing Americans are driving less than they did in the summer of 2020. Fears of an economic slowdown have intensified along with the potential impacts on crude demand.

MM will be remembered as the biggest trouble makers in i3.

MM’s name is really busuk at HY’s forum , now busuk in Hib’s forum and all the forum he steps in.
Hehehe…..

Monkeymaker , you deserve to be screwed! Remember, what goes around comes around.

Khabarnya, uncle K sudah tegur followers cut lost decisively hari ini…

Tapi jangan tergesa gesa reload……

Good Morning Paktua,
Your wish to reload below 83sen will come true today…
You are the smartest swing traders to take profit at as high as 90.5 sen last week.
Congratulations.

Be the 1st one to sell …..
Remember that 1ST LOST IS THE BEST LOST!

Brent tumbled to as low as usd96 last night, will fall further in coming weeks and months. High chance for Hib falling to 70sen very soon . Traders and short sellers will be dumping starting today.

@MM, I think your backside explode first before Hib. Hehehe..

Paktua,
Pasal kau tak bagi janda MM cukup cukup.
Sampai dia mengamuk.
Hehehe…

Brent drop usd10 in 2 days ! Very scary . Don’t be lured by MM , the hati busuk widow.

MM, Explosive QR? I think more like your backside exploding . Hehehe…

Paktua tergesa-gesa buat apa ? . Nak buat janda MM happy sikit kah?
Sekarang dah 84.5. Besok pasti saya sampaikan 83 sen.
Hehehe….

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Posted by Johnzhang > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

@paktua,
Jangan reload tergesa gesa…
Tunggu lah 2-3 hari lagi
Nanti John tolong bagi ia jatuh sampai 83 sen baru lah sedap makan.
Hehehe…

Lagi lagi…
Paktua kan tahu uncle kon aka uncle con itu kerap kali main belakang orang ….
Mesti jaga jaga dia …
Hehehe