SOP fair price is $4-5 . It is coming soon.

Ta Ann should worth $6-7 ! It is coming soon .

Felix888 is praying hard WCE won’t return to 70sen . Hehehe…
Why waste precious time to do that ?
Be it trading at 70 , 68,65 or 60sen now , that isn’t going to alter the promising future of the highway for next 38+ 10 years .

CPO future surged over 3% to nearly $4,200!

CPO future surged over 3% to nearly $4,200.

CPO future surged over 3% this evening to nearly $4,200 !

Even if the completion is further delay by a year or two , it still doesn’t change the big picture of good long term prospects for WCE.

Very strong closing yesterday. More buy orders at $1.09 emerged during the last 10 mins and there wasn’t enough sell orders to meet all the demand.
I think $1.10/1.11 will be convincingly broken early next week and price will surge towards $1.20 level . Finger crossed.

I will support the GO if price is over $2.
It is the absolute decision of Boustead/LTAT as both are not listed companies.

About half of the estates have past prime age and requiring immediate replanting . More estates are aging adding to the number. Such mega size replanting requiring huge capex which Boustead/LTAT can’t afford. For a while, yield from old palms continues to go down affecting operational performance.
Time is certainly not on Boustead side .

Some market operators or possibly investment banks are putting up tough hurdles at $1.10/1.11! The reasons are all on the wall .

IJM, Surin and Pang of mamee collectively owns about 70% of this highway . There are more concern to get it completed as soon as possible than Felix888.

Ya. Then don’t even spend your precious time in this forum pouring cold water. Hehehe

Good chance to break the road block at $1.10/1.11 today. Once convincingly broken, the sky is blue .

Felix888,
I don’t quite understand why you talk about perpetual DCF ? WCE tolling has concession expiry, the cash flow is not perpetual. The Annuity DCF is the right model to use.

Here are the differences between perpetual and annuity DCF model :

Perpetuity Vs Annuity

Both the above terms are very frequently used in financial situations where the securities involve caontinuous cash flows. However, there are some differences between them, as follows:
The former is for indefinite time period whereas the latter refers to a cash flow which is for a fixed time period, meaning, it has a maturity date.
The former will have cash flows that are fixed over the entire time, where the latter may have fixed as well as variable cash flows.
Perpetuity value is commonly used in finance where the concept is more theoretical and cash flow assumptions are made for simple study purpose, whereas annuity is used in real cases like retirement savings, insurance plans, etc.
The valuation method of both of them are completely different having two different formula.

Felix888, pls don’t shut your mind for knowledge and most importantly think logically. If you don’t, you will miss every opportunity coming your way !

With regards to price dilution by the warrant, pls read my calculations again and again . I used 3.5 billion shares which included fully conversion of the warrant into ordinary share .

Felix,
Are you trying to confuse us with you newly invented DCF formula? Don’t waste your time!
Hahaha…

HSpltn is sitting on about $500 mil cash , zero bank borrowing as at 31.12.2022.
Without major capex , Cash pile will grow in this year too.

Privatizing HSpltn thru capital reduction will not burden Hapseng consolidated at all . The cash to pay out to minorities are internally funded.

More and more cars on the road ! Road tolling business can not go wrong!
————————————

KUALA LUMPUR (July 20): The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) has revised upwards its car sales forecast for 2023 to 725,000 units, from its initial 650,000 units projected at the start of the year.
MAA president Mohd Shamsor Mohd Zain said the revision was made after car sales or the total industry volume (TIV) showed upward momentum in the first half of 2023 (1H2023), compared to the same period last year.
TIV in 1H2023 rose 10.3% to 366,037 units from 331,746 units in 1H2022. For 2022, MAA recorded sales of 720,658 units, a record high for the local automotive industry.

Felix,
What are the uncertainties worrying you ?
I thought the CEO has addressed all your concerns in recent press briefing.
Better don’t touch this stock if you have no or little trust on the CEO who determines the well being of the company to a large extent.

@dragon328,
The valuation is mind blowing if you add them up :
9,000 ha strategic landbank @ $4 psf is $3.9 bil (9,000 x 107639x 4)
63,000 ha planted estate @ $70k per ha is $4.4 bil.
Total of above = (3.9+4.4) = $8.3 bil
No of share is 2.2 bil.
Value per share $3.76

( note : there is still 23,000 ha unaccounted )
(Total landbank 95,000 ha - 9,000 - 63,000 = 23,000 ha )

I still hold the view that GO will be $2 and above.

Cash rich HSplant is a likely privatization candidate by the Holding company. Cash pile will continue to increase amid bullish CPO outlook returning. TP $3.50

Good time for CPO seem returning. Don’t miss the boat !

Bullish outlook for CPO is back again. Don’t miss the boat !

Felix888, could you share your calculation of fair value for wce , if you have any ?

Felix888, did you notice that I didn’t built in the revenue/ toll collection growth rate of assumed 5% annually? For simplicity, this just offset the discounted rate of 5% which I stated to arrive at present value .

Road block at $1.10/1.11 to hinder share price from rising too fast ?

Zhuge,
You may read the attached NST news link of 2018. The minister said that the concession start from 2013, the year agreement was inked , not after completion. Had there been any change?

https://www.nst.com.my/amp/news/nation/2018/11/433191/50-year-concession-wce-necessary-lower-toll-rates

Another crude method I adopt to estimate the worth of WCE is based on cumulative NPAT over 38 years which is the remaining years for the first 50 years concession. ( pls note : concession for 50 starting 2013, + 10 years if ROI is not met)

Toll collection FY 2025 = $984 mil
+ Non toll revenue. = $246 mil
Total revenue FY2025 $1.230 bil
(Toll / non toll revenue 80/20 basis per PLUS experience)
Assuming 5% growth in toll/revenue (lower than PLUS)
Assuming EBITDA margins 83% ( same as PLUS)
Assuming interest rate 5 %
Assuming discount rate of 5% (matching to revenue/ profit growth of 5% )

Cumulative revenue (38 years) at PRESENT VALUES = $1.23 bil x 38 years = $46.74 bil
EBITDA (base on 83%) =. $38.79 bil
Interest expense cumulative $5.5 bil
Dep/Amortisation $6.8 bil
PBT Cumm. (38.79 -5.5 - 6.8). = $26.49 bil
@ tax 27% , NPAT = $19.34 bil
NPAT attribute to shareholders of WCEHB is $19.34 x80% = $15.47 bil
Please note that NPAT is cumulative and at present value.
No of share after full subscription of warrant is 3.5 bil
Estimated valuation is $15.47/3.5 bil share = $4.42/ share . That’s about the price government will have to compensate if privatizating WCE.

Great Upside potential: toll rate increase every 3 years permitted under concession agreement, higher traffic growth than 5 % , etc

Above for general discussion only
—————————————————--

My basis of toll collection from 2025 posted earlier :
Felix of WCE recently estimated 300,000 daily road users once the expressway is fully completed next year. Assuming this man on the job is realistic on his numbers, we shall
make a guess of the WCE's revenue for FY 2025.
For simplicity, let's use present Plus toll rate Taiping to Bukit Raja (klang) as equivalent to WCE full stretch (Taiping - Banting):
Class 1 (passenger 2-axle car) $30.42
Class 2 (2 axle truck) $55.50
Class 3 (3 or more axles truck) $74.10
Class 4 (taxi) $15.17
Class 5 (buses) $22.80
Assuming composition of vehicle classes is (70/10/10/5/5), the weighted average toll rate for full stretch is therefore $36.15 per user or $0.155 per user per km ($36.15/233km)
We will have users travelling long and short haul. Let's assume, the average distance travelled per user is 1/4 of the full stretch ( 233/4 =58 km only)

Toll revenue FY 2025 = 300,000 daily users x 365 days x 58km x $0.155 = $984 millions !

Sell signal surfaced today . Be ready to take advantage of it .

Pang72,
My working for the $6.6 mil per km per concession year paid by ALR is certainly included the compensation arrears owed by government . We all don’t know how much was that portion.
In any case , highway tolling concession agreements had always been favoring the concessionaire in a big way . Moreso, WCE shall enjoy robust traffic .

About 22 mil share traded at average price of about $1.04 and closed at $1.05 . Very bullish signal .

Is this the price to pay for recent disharmony in this forum ???

I rather stay with Bplant for a bit longer as GO is in sight . Already received very clear indication from LTAT’s CEO and Minister .
As for other plantation counters , no sign of M&A and the wait can be very long .

Someone took up the big block of over 4 mil share at $1.05!

Someone place a big hurdle at $1.05 deliberately to stop the share price from advancing . It is interesting to know the objective of so doing .

I have been consistently said that LTAT/boustead will seek a price of $2 and above ! Gold mine doesn’t come cheap . Let’s just wait a little while more.

I believe, the deal will be announced in about 1 month time ie soon after state election .
Price will be $2 thereabout.
Just my view

I can only find latest Plus annual report 2010.
Based on the report , toll collection in 2006 was $1.681 bil and $2.573 bil in 2010 . Plus enjoyed 11% compound growth from 2006 to 2010 (4 years). By now Plus toll collection would have exceed $12-15 bil per year after considering the toll rates increase/compensation .
EBITA was consistently about 80% , averaging 84% from 2006to 2010 period .

Don’t have to worry the $4bil debt of WCE. Focus on the revenue potential instead .
These debts are long term debts matching to the concession period of 50 years . With toll revenue reaching over $1 bil /year from the early years of full operations and increasing year by year, the $4 Bil debt spreads over 40 +10 years is nothing.

LTAT to increase asset under management from current $9.3 bil to $15 bil in 2025 (just under 1.5 years). It could well means a massive realization of gain from the existing investment! Where is this $5.7 bil additional come from ? I guess it has to come from a major disposal with major disposal gain . Everyone is free from making guesses.

I have added considerable amount from 87 sen to 97 sen in the past few weeks and be prepared to hold until 2025 .

KUALA LUMPUR (July 13): Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (LTAT) should not be sentimental towards businesses under its portfolio in a restructuring to unlock value pursuant to the newly-announced multi-year strategy, said Minister of Defence Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan.
“In the corporate world, survival of the fittest is a ‘dog eat dog’ business, so there is no such thing as mercy or whatever it is. That’s why I said, put our sentiment aside when do business,” he told reporters after attending the launch of the Sustainable25 strategy here on Thursday (July 13).
“We cannot say we are sentimental towards something, or this is our ‘flagship’. There is no such thing as flagship, it is survival. So, how do we survive such challenging times, with the interest rate differential? US interest is 5% [versus] our 3% and so on. So how do we manage the situation, so that we remain relevant,” he said.

Asked if the restructuring would involve divesting Boustead Plantation Bhd or Boustead Petroleum Marketing Sdn Bhd (BHPetrol), Tok Mat, as he is fondly known, said “in business, what is important is that we make money; we do business to get returns”.
“There is no point in retaining business if you are going to lose money.
“The important thing is to look at our assets. There are assets such as those of ‘planting trees on a gold mine’, so we have to unlock that because this is the process for adding value,” he added.

The important point from above news :
1. Increase the AUM from $9.3 bil now to $15bil by 2025. How to increase $5.7 bil unless making huge disposal or investment gain !

2. Reduce boustead-related investments from present 39% to 15% by 2025. That means a lot of investment or asset under Boustead will be sold !
Bplant will be the major one to be sold !

KUALA LUMPUR (July 13): Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (LTAT) launched a multi-year strategy through 2025, aiming for an asset under management (AUM) of RM15 billion, growing the fund with sustained 5% returns for members, as well as recovering RM3.3 billion cost of investment in beleaguered Boustead-related businesses.
The Armed Forces Fund Board said in a statement on Thursday (July 13) that its AUM stood at RM9.3 billion as at May 2023.
The fund also hopes to diversify its concentration of asset allocation on Boustead-related investments, from 39% currently to 15% by 2025.

Speakup, who to believe? I believe in myself. Hahaha…

Pang, can not calculate like that lah . But I like your calculation. Hahaha
For such generous price ALR offered to acquire the soon expired concession, it may means that toll business in Malaysia is very profitable.

——————————————————
Pang72 wrote:
Thanks John for additional point.
With $6.6 mil per km per concession year, WCE worth 6.6x233x50= rm76, 890mils.

This translate to rm25. 70 per share!!!!

Shit! This is the 天文数字！！

Felix of WCE recently estimated 300,000 daily road users once the expressway is fully completed next year. Assuming this man on the job is realistic on his numbers, we shall
make a guess of the WCE's revenue for FY 2025.
For simplicity, let's use present Plus toll rate Taiping to Bukit Raja (klang) as equivalent to WCE full stretch (Taiping - Banting):
Class 1 (passenger 2-axle car) $30.42
Class 2 (2 axle truck) $55.50
Class 3 (3 or more axles truck) $74.10
Class 4 (taxi) $15.17
Class 5 (buses) $22.80
Assuming composition of vehicle classes is (70/10/10/5/5), the weighted average toll rate for full stretch is therefore $36.15 per user or $0.155 per user per km ($36.15/233km)
We will have users travelling long and short haul. Let's assume, the average distance travelled per user is 1/4 of the full stretch ( 233/4 =58 km only)

Toll revenue FY 2025 = 300,000 daily users x 365 days x 58km x $0.155 = $984 millions !
Operation cost before interest $200 mil/year ??
Interest expense (4% x 5bil ) $200 mil/year ??
That means, WCE will be profitable right from 1st year of highway fully opened.

in 2022 ALR paid the following generous amount to take over the soon to be expired highway concessions (let's omit Smart in the discussion) :
$1.19 bil for Kesas , 57.5 km concession expiring 2023(1 year left from 2022)
$2.21 bil for LDP, 40km concession expiring 2030 (8 years left from 2022)
$863 mil for Sprint ,26.5 km , concession expiring 2031/2034 (avg 10 years left)
Total sum paid for 3 highways = $4,263 mil
Total length for 3 highways = 124 km
Remaining concession live (weighted avg basis) = 5.2 years only !
(Note ; once concession expire, no toll would be collected)

Let's factor in the distance and concession remaining live into the equation :
ALR paid $4,263 mils for 124 km and for 5.2 years concession, ie $6.6 mil per km per concession year !

WCE is 233 km and remaining concession is 40+10 years (concession runs from 2013, 10 years lost!) . How much should it potentially worth ??