Supermax Group MD Stanley Thai is sentenced to five years in jail and fined RM5 mil for insider trading

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/content/evening-5-stanley-thai-convicted-insider-trading-1

"Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Proposed Internal Reorganisation is expected to be completed by first quarter of 2018." (pg 9)

June monthly production stats are out. -8% yoy for FFB and -13% for CPO. It looks like June has been hit harder than expected. overall 2Q 2017 looks so-so, higher selling prices and production numbers but only by single digit %. We'll probably see single digit % profit grown yoy, unless the mgmt can spring a positive surprise with some cost efficiency savings....(but with GLCs you'd probably want to temper your high expectations)

a significant selldown across all stocks on bursa...which somehow isn't reflected so much on the KLCI index...

http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Nikkei-Markets/UPDATE-Malaysia-June-Palm-Oil-Inventory-Falls-Likely-To-Rise-Next-Month

The latest MPOB June statistics:
CPO exports: 1.38mil (-8% mom but +21% yoy) - I see this as positive news for Msian coffers
CPO production: 1.51mil (-1% yoy) - not great news. I'd be keen to see how similarly affected is thplant's production numbers.
CPO inventories: 1.53mil (lowest in more than a year) - this will be a boost for CPO prices

Excellent export numbers for May: http://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-economy-trade-idUSL3N1JX2XO

May 2017 % of % change

(bln rgt) total vs year ago

Palm oil & Palm-based 4.8 6.0 27.5
products

I'm not actually surprised I predicted this correctly: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5479053

Mark July 10th on your calendar for the next potential catalyst:

"Production is not picking up as much as initially thought," said a trader from Kuala Lumpur, referring to the market's expectations for June output which is scheduled to be reported on July 10 by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/05/palm-rebounds-from-early-losses-on-forecasts-for-output-drop/#jRMsbMHHtg6A93RF.99

Analysts have been digesting the news over the weekend and now the news of the ban has been plastered all over the Edge headlines. Expect an interesting July-August share price movement...

So long as thplant can maintain their production pace, cut their debt, and CPO prices stay further up and away from RM23xx, all is good...

I am quite confident that they will have better earnings for 2Q, barring any unforeseen circumstances i.e. an FGV fraud-type situation. Their monthly production numbers already show double digit growth. Value-wise, it has been beaten down quite a bit, so at the moment it looks to have a better turnaround story compared to most and thus a greater upside...

I think so too, especially if you're bullish about the 2Q results for the plantation sector. I don't really pay a lot of mind to the dividend because it's just proceeds from land sale (although, expect equal or more dividend this year and 2018 because they are looking to dispose 400mil of assets)

newcomer123, mainly yes. Also they also haven't been able to establish a consistent profit growth. It takes time to turn around investor confidence - we haven't seen a lot of successful turnaround stories for GLCs. BUT I believe EPF has been accumulating (including today) - we'll find out when/if they release a bursa announcement in a few days time!

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/23/cpo-prices-seen-going-lower-for-the-rest-of-this-year-and-into-2018/

May FFB numbers are up 28% yoy, CPO production up 14%. Still holding strong to double digit % growth. The numbers are the best one can hope for without being too optimistic ;) 2Q is looking stellar

Monthly production numbers are out...

the biggest play on THPlant is their recovery story, at the moment it's all up up up from here...the question is how high and how long (barring another plantation glc scandal...)

A quick calculation of Msia CPO exports to India:
3months from Jan-March 2017 444,359
2months from April-May 2017 434,577 already!

I think Indian traders have already figured out how to pay electronically instead of the now-banned big rupee notes...

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/may-palm-oil-inventory-dips-exports-soar
http://www.mpoc.org.my/monthly_sub_page.aspx?id=88681c3d-103c-4b8f-b20a-6cb6201f5ef0

I am paying attention to the May and June FFB and CPO production numbers to see if they show enough growth yoy to offset the falling CPO prices. My sell indicator is simple = if CPO price breaches RM2300. At the moment I'm holding on to this stock as a turnaround play. Mildly speculative but 2Q results should be good enough to prop the price up. Malaysian investors are all very short term thinking one..the crunch will be in 3Q-4Q...

My take on THPlant: the management has done a decent job since they started on the cost optimisation strategy in 1Q2016. No doubt the asset rationalisation will artificially pad up the cash reserves and profit numbers. Nevertheless they have done a good job paring debt, and I see another 5-6sen dividend sometime his year.

jenabchen123 - folks are waiting for the next catalyst for stock price increase!