Petrochemicals 17 Jun 2019 | 09:00 UTC Singapore

Asian petrochemicals outlook, w/c Jun 17

The Asian petrochemicals markets face a mixed outlook this week. While some products are expected to remain bearish amid weak demand, styrene monomer and butadiene may see support from tight supplies.

AROMATICS
Demand for Asian benzene is expected to continue West-bound towards the US market, with August DDP USG discussions heard at 232-237 cents/gal, or $693.68-708.63/mt, sufficient to cover spot freight between South Korea and the US Gulf Coast heard at approximately $55/mt. Despite an open arbitrage, actual demand for August material may be limited, with supply tightness for prompt material supporting prices in the forward months, a source said. The domestic East China prices have gained steadily last week, following firm crude price and falling import volumes.

The CFR Taiwan/China benchmark paraxylene marker was down $42/mt to $817.67/mt last Friday, week on week. PX prices had regained some momentum towards the end of May, prompting Asian PX producers to defer any cuts in production rates. There were a few PTA plant turnarounds reported towards the end of the week, including a reduction in operating rates for the Yisheng Dalian facility, however, demand would not be very highly impacted, said market players. Some market players said some July demand may bleed into early August, since it may not be fulfilled on time, but August was not as tight as the previous month and traders felt that there was still some room to buy cargoes.

Demand in the downstream markets remained weak amid a lack of clear price direction as the market moves into the traditionally weak demand in the third quarter.

OLEFINS
Asian ethylene would likely remain bearish this week, after falling to a 10-year low last Friday. The market would likely be pressured by weak demand as well as a falling global ethylene market. Last Friday, the CIF Northwest Europe ethylene price dived $139/mt week on week to $1,059/mt, S&P Global Platts data showed.

The Asian butadiene market closed the week up $45-50/mt Friday amid active spot trading. Platts assessed the CFR China and NEA markers at $1,140/mt and FOB Korea at $1,090/mt. South Korea's Hanwha Total continued to experience technical issues at its Daesan cracker, as it was unable to restart by the end of last week. Should South Korean cracker issues continue, prices may strengthen. Raw material butadiene prices rose, downstream styrene butadiene rubber prices inched up $5/mt to $1,400/mt CFR SEA and $1,350/mt CFR China due to weak demand and ample supply, causing SBR margins to fall further.

INTERMEDIATES
Methanol prices in India and China will likely be bearish as a number of cargoes from Iran are expected to arrive in July. Iranian methanol plants were heard to be running at high operating rates. CFR India was assessed at $260/mt last Wednesday, down $2/mt week on week, while CFR China fell $5/mt to $265/mt Friday.

Asian monoethylene glycol prices will likely remain stable this week amid weak supply-demand fundamentals and support from upstream feedstock. MEG prices were rangebound between $531-534/mt CFR China last week. MEG inventories remained ample with around 1.35 million mt at the main ports of east China, typically enough to meet demand for a month, sources said. Still, there was little room for MEG prices to fall sharply as most Asian MEG producers were incurring losses, sources said. The profit margins were calculated to be minus $12/mt and minus $97/mt for naphtha-based and ethylene-based MEG respectively.

The Asian purified terephthalic acid market lacked direction amid a volatile upstream PX market. Feedstock PX soared $21/mt from June 7 to be assessed at $880.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Monday, and subsequently tumbled $63/mt to $817.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Friday. Demand was healthy with downstream polyester sector operating at 88% of the overall capacity in China, despite a seasonal lull in June.

The acrylonitrile market is expected to trend lower this week as buyers were waiting for a price correction. Some acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene producers in Asia have cut operating rates and said the Asian ACN price will need to slip to the low-$1,800s/mt before buyers can make further purchases. Asian ACN was assessed down $40/mt at $1,880/mt CFR Far East Asia last Tuesday.
POLYMERS

Asian polyethylene would likely remain soft this week during a seasonal lull.

Market participants are also closely monitoring the restart of Malaysia's Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical steam cracker. According to sources close to the company, it will restart the unit in July. The cracker supplies ethylene to its downstream PE units.

Asian polypropylene would likely come down this week, after falling $10-$60/mt week on week last week. PP supplies in China were seen to be heavy, which triggered exports from China to Southeast Asia and India.

Petrochemicals 17 Jun 2019 | 09:00 UTC Singapore

Asian petrochemicals outlook, w/c Jun 17

The Asian petrochemicals markets face a mixed outlook this week. While some products are expected to remain bearish amid weak demand, styrene monomer and butadiene may see support from tight supplies.

AROMATICS
Demand for Asian benzene is expected to continue West-bound towards the US market, with August DDP USG discussions heard at 232-237 cents/gal, or $693.68-708.63/mt, sufficient to cover spot freight between South Korea and the US Gulf Coast heard at approximately $55/mt. Despite an open arbitrage, actual demand for August material may be limited, with supply tightness for prompt material supporting prices in the forward months, a source said. The domestic East China prices have gained steadily last week, following firm crude price and falling import volumes.

The CFR Taiwan/China benchmark paraxylene marker was down $42/mt to $817.67/mt last Friday, week on week. PX prices had regained some momentum towards the end of May, prompting Asian PX producers to defer any cuts in production rates. There were a few PTA plant turnarounds reported towards the end of the week, including a reduction in operating rates for the Yisheng Dalian facility, however, demand would not be very highly impacted, said market players. Some market players said some July demand may bleed into early August, since it may not be fulfilled on time, but August was not as tight as the previous month and traders felt that there was still some room to buy cargoes.

Demand in the downstream markets remained weak amid a lack of clear price direction as the market moves into the traditionally weak demand in the third quarter.

OLEFINS
Asian ethylene would likely remain bearish this week, after falling to a 10-year low last Friday. The market would likely be pressured by weak demand as well as a falling global ethylene market. Last Friday, the CIF Northwest Europe ethylene price dived $139/mt week on week to $1,059/mt, S&P Global Platts data showed.

The Asian butadiene market closed the week up $45-50/mt Friday amid active spot trading. Platts assessed the CFR China and NEA markers at $1,140/mt and FOB Korea at $1,090/mt. South Korea's Hanwha Total continued to experience technical issues at its Daesan cracker, as it was unable to restart by the end of last week. Should South Korean cracker issues continue, prices may strengthen. Raw material butadiene prices rose, downstream styrene butadiene rubber prices inched up $5/mt to $1,400/mt CFR SEA and $1,350/mt CFR China due to weak demand and ample supply, causing SBR margins to fall further.

INTERMEDIATES
Methanol prices in India and China will likely be bearish as a number of cargoes from Iran are expected to arrive in July. Iranian methanol plants were heard to be running at high operating rates. CFR India was assessed at $260/mt last Wednesday, down $2/mt week on week, while CFR China fell $5/mt to $265/mt Friday.

Asian monoethylene glycol prices will likely remain stable this week amid weak supply-demand fundamentals and support from upstream feedstock. MEG prices were rangebound between $531-534/mt CFR China last week. MEG inventories remained ample with around 1.35 million mt at the main ports of east China, typically enough to meet demand for a month, sources said. Still, there was little room for MEG prices to fall sharply as most Asian MEG producers were incurring losses, sources said. The profit margins were calculated to be minus $12/mt and minus $97/mt for naphtha-based and ethylene-based MEG respectively.

The Asian purified terephthalic acid market lacked direction amid a volatile upstream PX market. Feedstock PX soared $21/mt from June 7 to be assessed at $880.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Monday, and subsequently tumbled $63/mt to $817.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Friday. Demand was healthy with downstream polyester sector operating at 88% of the overall capacity in China, despite a seasonal lull in June.

The acrylonitrile market is expected to trend lower this week as buyers were waiting for a price correction. Some acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene producers in Asia have cut operating rates and said the Asian ACN price will need to slip to the low-$1,800s/mt before buyers can make further purchases. Asian ACN was assessed down $40/mt at $1,880/mt CFR Far East Asia last Tuesday.
POLYMERS

Asian polyethylene would likely remain soft this week during a seasonal lull.

Market participants are also closely monitoring the restart of Malaysia's Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical steam cracker. According to sources close to the company, it will restart the unit in July. The cracker supplies ethylene to its downstream PE units.

Asian polypropylene would likely come down this week, after falling $10-$60/mt week on week last week. PP supplies in China were seen to be heavy, which triggered exports from China to Southeast Asia and India.

Petrochemicals: Ethylene falls further on slack supply/demand
2019/06/10 07:00

Aromatics

FOB Korea benzene prices and CFR Northeast Asia paraxylene (PX) prices softened in the first half of the week along with a fall in crude prices but after that, the market was firm. Since profitability of aromatics decreased, some makers reduced production of benzene and PX. As a result, perceptions of surplus supply receded and this supported the market.


Olefins

CFR Northeast Asia ethylene prices fell further. Since demand for derivatives was low, demand for ethylene was also subdued. Some petrochemical makers reduced production of derivatives or conducted maintenance of derivative facilities and kept selling ethylene. Under these circumstances, supply/demand was perceived to be slack. A cargo for delivery to China in July was reportedly traded at $810/mt during the week. On the other hand, in Korea, a naphtha cracker was reportedly experiencing troubles. This might affect shipment of spot and term cargoes from the facility but prices had not rebounded. Players only tried to check the situation. Movements had been few since the middle of the week due to holidays in Singapore, Korea, China and Taiwan.


The Asia propylene market fell slightly. In Northeast Asia, with the China domestic market on a downtrend at the beginning of the week, buying interest from end-users for imported cargoes was thin and the market softened. But later in the week, the market rebounded as buying interest from Korea was seen due to reports that operations at naphtha crackers in Korea were unstable. In Southeast Asia, few bids and offers were heard and activity was muted.


The Asia butadiene market declined. In Northeast Asia, deals were done at $1,050/mt for June delivery and at a discount of $15/mt to CFR Northeast Asia quotations for July delivery. Amid uncertain market directions ahead, some players wanted to negotiate based on market quotations. While supply was ample, derivative demand was not strong. As a result, market sentiment was weak.

Petrochemicals: Ethylene falls further on slack supply/demand
2019/06/10 07:00

Aromatics

FOB Korea benzene prices and CFR Northeast Asia paraxylene (PX) prices softened in the first half of the week along with a fall in crude prices but after that, the market was firm. Since profitability of aromatics decreased, some makers reduced production of benzene and PX. As a result, perceptions of surplus supply receded and this supported the market.


Olefins

CFR Northeast Asia ethylene prices fell further. Since demand for derivatives was low, demand for ethylene was also subdued. Some petrochemical makers reduced production of derivatives or conducted maintenance of derivative facilities and kept selling ethylene. Under these circumstances, supply/demand was perceived to be slack. A cargo for delivery to China in July was reportedly traded at $810/mt during the week. On the other hand, in Korea, a naphtha cracker was reportedly experiencing troubles. This might affect shipment of spot and term cargoes from the facility but prices had not rebounded. Players only tried to check the situation. Movements had been few since the middle of the week due to holidays in Singapore, Korea, China and Taiwan.


The Asia propylene market fell slightly. In Northeast Asia, with the China domestic market on a downtrend at the beginning of the week, buying interest from end-users for imported cargoes was thin and the market softened. But later in the week, the market rebounded as buying interest from Korea was seen due to reports that operations at naphtha crackers in Korea were unstable. In Southeast Asia, few bids and offers were heard and activity was muted.


The Asia butadiene market declined. In Northeast Asia, deals were done at $1,050/mt for June delivery and at a discount of $15/mt to CFR Northeast Asia quotations for July delivery. Amid uncertain market directions ahead, some players wanted to negotiate based on market quotations. While supply was ample, derivative demand was not strong. As a result, market sentiment was weak.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/061019-asia-petrochemicals-outlook-w-c-june-10

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/061019-americas-petrochemicals-outlook-w-c-june-10

Asia petrochemicals outlook, w/c June 10

OLEFINS
Asian ethylene would likely remain bearish this week after hitting a four-year low last Friday. Selling pressure would likely continue this week amid lower downstream plant operations and negative margins. Despite this, the steam cracker operations in Asia would likely remain high this week due to a healthy ethylene/naphtha spread.

Domestic China propylene price was under pressure with a polypropylene producer lowering operating rate amid falling margins. However, imported material was supported amid tight supply in Northeast Asia due to a delay in Hanwha Total's cracker restart.

The Asian butadiene market closed on a firmer note Friday amid tighter supply, with delivered prices to Northeast Asian markets up $35/mt on week to $1,095/mt Friday, particularly due to short supply in South Korea. This was due to South Korea's LG Chemical shutting its 170,000mt/year butadiene unit Wednesday, as well as its 160,000mt/year styrene butadiene rubber and 180,000mt/year polybutadiene rubber unit in Daesan, leaving only its SSBR and NBR units open. The market is expected to be firm to stable in the days ahead, depending on the cracker situation with South Korean plants.

POLYMERS
Asian linear low density polyethylene was assessed down $20/mt last week at $920/mt CFR Far East Asia Tuesday. Actively-traded September LLDPE futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell Yuan 285/mt over the same period to Yuan 7,630/mt ex-warehouse Tuesday. The outlook was bearish for the third quarter as downstream applications such as cable and infrastructure demand have been weak, although packaging demand has been relatively stable, participants said.

Asian polypropylene prices fell last week amid lackluster demand and ample supply. Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach amid recent slides in Chinese PP futures, which dampened sentiment. Some traders pointed out that homopolymer PP production was being taken over by the coal and PDH-based producers, while naphtha-based producers were switching production to copolymer based for better netbacks.

INTERMEDIATES
Asian purified terephthalic acid prices tumbled $40/mt week on week to $710/mt CFR China Friday amid weak PTA fundamentals in China, despite a spate of unplanned shutdowns for PTA for this week. There were a total of four unscheduled shutdowns of PTA plants in China last week, resulting in around 40,000 mt PTA production loss, according to sources. Still, the unexpected production loss failed to support Asian PTA prices amid ample supply and tepid demand in China.

Asia petrochemicals outlook, w/c June 10

OLEFINS
Asian ethylene would likely remain bearish this week after hitting a four-year low last Friday. Selling pressure would likely continue this week amid lower downstream plant operations and negative margins. Despite this, the steam cracker operations in Asia would likely remain high this week due to a healthy ethylene/naphtha spread.

Domestic China propylene price was under pressure with a polypropylene producer lowering operating rate amid falling margins. However, imported material was supported amid tight supply in Northeast Asia due to a delay in Hanwha Total's cracker restart.

The Asian butadiene market closed on a firmer note Friday amid tighter supply, with delivered prices to Northeast Asian markets up $35/mt on week to $1,095/mt Friday, particularly due to short supply in South Korea. This was due to South Korea's LG Chemical shutting its 170,000mt/year butadiene unit Wednesday, as well as its 160,000mt/year styrene butadiene rubber and 180,000mt/year polybutadiene rubber unit in Daesan, leaving only its SSBR and NBR units open. The market is expected to be firm to stable in the days ahead, depending on the cracker situation with South Korean plants.

POLYMERS
Asian linear low density polyethylene was assessed down $20/mt last week at $920/mt CFR Far East Asia Tuesday. Actively-traded September LLDPE futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell Yuan 285/mt over the same period to Yuan 7,630/mt ex-warehouse Tuesday. The outlook was bearish for the third quarter as downstream applications such as cable and infrastructure demand have been weak, although packaging demand has been relatively stable, participants said.

Asian polypropylene prices fell last week amid lackluster demand and ample supply. Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach amid recent slides in Chinese PP futures, which dampened sentiment. Some traders pointed out that homopolymer PP production was being taken over by the coal and PDH-based producers, while naphtha-based producers were switching production to copolymer based for better netbacks.

INTERMEDIATES
Asian purified terephthalic acid prices tumbled $40/mt week on week to $710/mt CFR China Friday amid weak PTA fundamentals in China, despite a spate of unplanned shutdowns for PTA for this week. There were a total of four unscheduled shutdowns of PTA plants in China last week, resulting in around 40,000 mt PTA production loss, according to sources. Still, the unexpected production loss failed to support Asian PTA prices amid ample supply and tepid demand in China.

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Europe June benzene contract falls $88/metric ton

Decline reflects spot price movements, easing supply in northwest Europe, drop in oil price.

Europe June benzene contract falls $88/metric ton

Decline reflects spot price movements, easing supply in northwest Europe, drop in oil price.

Petrochemicals 07 Jun 2019 | 21:57 UTC Houston

US May ethylene contract down alongside record-low spot levels

Author Brian Balboa Editor Richard Rubin Commodity Petrochemicals

Houston — The US May ethylene contract price has been confirmed at a decline, trade participants said Friday.

Trade sources said initial May ethylene settlements emerged at 24.25 cents/lb on Wednesday, down 0.75 cent from April. Additional confirmation emerged on Friday, but one contract buyer confirmed it has declined the offer of 24.25 cents/lb. The declines thus far were in line with market expectations as trade sources have cited a continued decline in spot prices, and amply supply ahead of additional ethane cracker startups this year.

The decline in the May ethylene contract comes the same week that ethylene spot prices dropped to an all-time low of 11.75 cents/lb FD USG, according to S&P Global Platts data on Monday. The spot market rebounded on Wednesday to 12.125 cents/lb FD USG, where it remained early Friday.

May ethylene spot levels averaged 12.97 cents/lb FD USG, according to Platts data, which was down from the April ethylene spot average of 13.51 cents/lb FD USG.

Looking ahead, trade participants said they expected another decline for the June ethylene contract.

"Fed stocks are super bearish, and ethylene supply would be flat, so contract will be down again for June, I would guess," said one US olefins trader earlier this week.

Said another US olefins trader: "Continued pressure in anything could mean another 0.75-1.00 cent down."

Petrochemicals 07 Jun 2019 | 21:57 UTC Houston

US May ethylene contract down alongside record-low spot levels

Author Brian Balboa Editor Richard Rubin Commodity Petrochemicals

Houston — The US May ethylene contract price has been confirmed at a decline, trade participants said Friday.

Trade sources said initial May ethylene settlements emerged at 24.25 cents/lb on Wednesday, down 0.75 cent from April. Additional confirmation emerged on Friday, but one contract buyer confirmed it has declined the offer of 24.25 cents/lb. The declines thus far were in line with market expectations as trade sources have cited a continued decline in spot prices, and amply supply ahead of additional ethane cracker startups this year.

The decline in the May ethylene contract comes the same week that ethylene spot prices dropped to an all-time low of 11.75 cents/lb FD USG, according to S&P Global Platts data on Monday. The spot market rebounded on Wednesday to 12.125 cents/lb FD USG, where it remained early Friday.

May ethylene spot levels averaged 12.97 cents/lb FD USG, according to Platts data, which was down from the April ethylene spot average of 13.51 cents/lb FD USG.

Looking ahead, trade participants said they expected another decline for the June ethylene contract.

"Fed stocks are super bearish, and ethylene supply would be flat, so contract will be down again for June, I would guess," said one US olefins trader earlier this week.

Said another US olefins trader: "Continued pressure in anything could mean another 0.75-1.00 cent down."

Tariffs push new US PE production out of China, into Europe and SE Asia

Whereas total US PE exports surged 2.2 MMt to more than 7.4 MMt in 2018, only about 0.6 MMt of that went to China, and much of that volume required steep discounts.....

GPS 2019 preview: Plastics market faces historic challenges, evolves sustainability strategies

The worldwide plastics market is facing “historic challenges” after a record period of growth, with headwinds developing that could substantially impact the market's future, according to Nick Vafiadis, IHS Markit vice president/plastics. “While plastics markets have always been dynamic in nature, we believe the market is currently facing historic challenges as it responds to geo-political developments, shifting supply/demand conditions, and evolving environmental priorities,” he says.

The market is in transition mode, after “a stellar two years relative to demand growth,” Vafiadis says. Legitimate questions have been raised as to whether that momentum and profitability trend can be sustained, with some “significant headwinds developing,” he adds.

Polyethylene (PE) demand has always been closely tied to GDP performance and the plastics industry is currently caught in a worldwide economic slowdown, according to Vafiadis. “We’re beginning to see sustainability-related issues trim demand growth. China is contending with internal and external issues that are affecting demand and profitability, which can have a global ripple effect,” he says. A reduction in China’s PE demand growth is significant because the country accounts for about half the worldwide growth rate, Vafiadis says.

Key areas of focus for IHS Markit include “closely monitoring developments associated with the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China,” says Vafiadis. “The trade war is affecting demand for PE in China and around the world. We believe the tariffs, and the loss of access to the China market for US PE producers, has had—and could continue to have—a significant impact on global PE prices and margins,” he says.

He also describes the sustainability issue as “a rapidly developing story that could have major implications on growth and profitability for plastics-industry participants throughout the value chain for many years to come.”

A new IHS Markit study on the potential impact of sustainability on key commodity resins concludes that sustainability-related market dynamics “could conceivably cut historical growth rates by as much as 50% for polyolefins,” Vafiadis says. Sustainability also represents opportunities for those willing to invest in technology and circular infrastructure, with the industry’s response to the challenge to “affect its social license to operate,” he adds.

IHS Markit experts and industry leaders representing plastics producers, processors, and brand owners will provide the latest perspective on sustainability trends and key industry issues at the Global Plastics Summit, in Houston, Texas, on 4-6 June.

Tariffs push new US PE production out of China, into Europe and SE Asia

Whereas total US PE exports surged 2.2 MMt to more than 7.4 MMt in 2018, only about 0.6 MMt of that went to China, and much of that volume required steep discounts.....

GPS 2019 preview: Plastics market faces historic challenges, evolves sustainability strategies

The worldwide plastics market is facing “historic challenges” after a record period of growth, with headwinds developing that could substantially impact the market's future, according to Nick Vafiadis, IHS Markit vice president/plastics. “While plastics markets have always been dynamic in nature, we believe the market is currently facing historic challenges as it responds to geo-political developments, shifting supply/demand conditions, and evolving environmental priorities,” he says.

The market is in transition mode, after “a stellar two years relative to demand growth,” Vafiadis says. Legitimate questions have been raised as to whether that momentum and profitability trend can be sustained, with some “significant headwinds developing,” he adds.

Polyethylene (PE) demand has always been closely tied to GDP performance and the plastics industry is currently caught in a worldwide economic slowdown, according to Vafiadis. “We’re beginning to see sustainability-related issues trim demand growth. China is contending with internal and external issues that are affecting demand and profitability, which can have a global ripple effect,” he says. A reduction in China’s PE demand growth is significant because the country accounts for about half the worldwide growth rate, Vafiadis says.

Key areas of focus for IHS Markit include “closely monitoring developments associated with the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China,” says Vafiadis. “The trade war is affecting demand for PE in China and around the world. We believe the tariffs, and the loss of access to the China market for US PE producers, has had—and could continue to have—a significant impact on global PE prices and margins,” he says.

He also describes the sustainability issue as “a rapidly developing story that could have major implications on growth and profitability for plastics-industry participants throughout the value chain for many years to come.”

A new IHS Markit study on the potential impact of sustainability on key commodity resins concludes that sustainability-related market dynamics “could conceivably cut historical growth rates by as much as 50% for polyolefins,” Vafiadis says. Sustainability also represents opportunities for those willing to invest in technology and circular infrastructure, with the industry’s response to the challenge to “affect its social license to operate,” he adds.

IHS Markit experts and industry leaders representing plastics producers, processors, and brand owners will provide the latest perspective on sustainability trends and key industry issues at the Global Plastics Summit, in Houston, Texas, on 4-6 June.

Asian polyethylene dived to a 10-year low last week dragged down by weak demand and was likely to remain bearish this week amid persisting concerns over US-China trade tensions.

Asian petrochemicals outlook, w/c June 3

Author Fumiko Dobashi Editor Wendy Wells Commodity Petrochemicals

Singapore — Headwinds loom for Asia's petrochemicals sector this week amid signs that China's economy has started to slow down as trade tensions with the US continue and after its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index contracted to 49.4 in May.

Market participants this week will also be monitoring the planned restart of Hanwha Total's petrochemical complex in South Korea after a month-long delay due to a labor strike, with its cracker slated to be restarted in early June.

AROMATICS
Asian isomer-grade mixed xylene prices are likely to be caught in a balancing act between crude oil and paraxylene this week, with volatility expected amid anticipation of price swings both up and downstream.

With PX producers potentially cutting operating rates in coming weeks, the MX market could be negatively impacted. Mixed xylene prices fell sharply last Friday to end the week down $25/mt at $692.50/mt FOB Korea, and down $32.50/mt on week at $716/mt CFR Taiwan. PX was assessed down $23.66/mt day on day at $853.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Friday.

Asia benzene was assessed down $9/mt on the week and down a sharper $19/mt on the day at $617.33/mt FOB Korea Friday. Demand from the US market was heard weaker, but nonetheless still present, as market participants awaited the settlement of the June benzene contract in the US, a key indicator of US demand for South Korean material going forward.

Asian styrene monomer remained firm at $1,080/mt CFR China and $1,040/mt FOB Korea Friday, up $5.50/mt on the week. Current price levels are expected to be supported temporarily on the back of tighter supply in South Korea in June.

OLEFINS
Asian ethylene traders will likely eye a possible arbitrage opportunity from Asia to Europe this week. This comes after the Europe-Asia ethylene spread jumped to $278.50/mt Friday, the highest since March 26, 2012, when it was $287.50/mt.

Asian ethylene supplies were seen likely remain heavy as downstream plant operations are set to remain low amid negative margins.

The CFR China and CFR Korea propylene markers are poised to receive support this week from the restart of polypropylene plants in China pushing up both the imported and domestic price for propylene. Imported supply is tight in China as Hanwha Total snaps up material in South Korea in readiness to feed its own PP plant.

Asian butadiene closed Friday up $25-$30/mt on week amid supply tightness due to Hanwha Total's ongoing steam cracker shutdown. It is due to restart soon but when its butadiene supply will return to the market remains unclear. Downstream, the emulsion styrene butadiene rubber market fared better, even though margins remain negative at minus $23/mt amid weak demand and rising raw material costs.

Asian monoethylene glycol prices were expected to remain rangebound this week. Supply is seen ample at around 1.338 million mt at the main ports in east China, while demand is waning with polyester producers operating at around 87%. Some MEG producers have trimmed production or started maintenance amid falling prices in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan and Middle East. However in China, MEG was assessed up $7/mt on week at $546/mt CFR China Friday, according to Platts data.

POLYMERS
Asian polyethylene dived to a 10-year low last week dragged down by weak demand and was likely to remain bearish this week amid persisting concerns over US-China trade tensions.

Polypropylene market sentiment was equally bearish, with the impending restart of PP plants in China after turnaround in the near term set to add further supply to the market. PP raffia was assessed at $1,060/mt Friday, unchanged from the day before.

INTERMEDIATES
China's methanol market was expected to be soft this week after the release of a lackluster manufacturing PMI for May and indications that US-China trade tensions have started to weigh on the country's growth. In India, fundamentals look stable to soft, though a major Iranian producer postponing a shipment last week to June 20-30 loading has lent some short-term upside.

The acrylonitrile market is likely to see further price correction this week due to production cuts amid negative margins, and on the back of reports that Ineos' 280,000 mt/year Seal Sands ACN plant in the UK may be resuming production after it shut down earlier in Q1.

Sentiment in the Asian purified terephthalic acid market is likely to remain bearish this week amid lackluster demand. Chinese buyers are likely to continue avoiding dollar-denominated PTA imports as China's domestic PTA is cheaper, sources said. PTA was assessed at $750/mt CFR China Friday, down $20/mt on week, while inventory was forecast to increase 200,000-300,000 mt in the quarter.

Asian polyethylene dived to a 10-year low last week dragged down by weak demand and was likely to remain bearish this week amid persisting concerns over US-China trade tensions.

Polypropylene market sentiment was equally bearish, with the impending restart of PP plants in China after turnaround in the near term set to add further supply to the market. PP raffia was assessed at $1,060/mt Friday, unchanged from the day before.

Asian petrochemicals outlook, w/c June 3

Author Fumiko Dobashi Editor Wendy Wells Commodity Petrochemicals

Singapore — Headwinds loom for Asia's petrochemicals sector this week amid signs that China's economy has started to slow down as trade tensions with the US continue and after its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index contracted to 49.4 in May.

Market participants this week will also be monitoring the planned restart of Hanwha Total's petrochemical complex in South Korea after a month-long delay due to a labor strike, with its cracker slated to be restarted in early June.

AROMATICS
Asian isomer-grade mixed xylene prices are likely to be caught in a balancing act between crude oil and paraxylene this week, with volatility expected amid anticipation of price swings both up and downstream.

With PX producers potentially cutting operating rates in coming weeks, the MX market could be negatively impacted. Mixed xylene prices fell sharply last Friday to end the week down $25/mt at $692.50/mt FOB Korea, and down $32.50/mt on week at $716/mt CFR Taiwan. PX was assessed down $23.66/mt day on day at $853.67/mt CFR Taiwan/China last Friday.

Asia benzene was assessed down $9/mt on the week and down a sharper $19/mt on the day at $617.33/mt FOB Korea Friday. Demand from the US market was heard weaker, but nonetheless still present, as market participants awaited the settlement of the June benzene contract in the US, a key indicator of US demand for South Korean material going forward.

Asian styrene monomer remained firm at $1,080/mt CFR China and $1,040/mt FOB Korea Friday, up $5.50/mt on the week. Current price levels are expected to be supported temporarily on the back of tighter supply in South Korea in June.

OLEFINS
Asian ethylene traders will likely eye a possible arbitrage opportunity from Asia to Europe this week. This comes after the Europe-Asia ethylene spread jumped to $278.50/mt Friday, the highest since March 26, 2012, when it was $287.50/mt.

Asian ethylene supplies were seen likely remain heavy as downstream plant operations are set to remain low amid negative margins.

The CFR China and CFR Korea propylene markers are poised to receive support this week from the restart of polypropylene plants in China pushing up both the imported and domestic price for propylene. Imported supply is tight in China as Hanwha Total snaps up material in South Korea in readiness to feed its own PP plant.

Asian butadiene closed Friday up $25-$30/mt on week amid supply tightness due to Hanwha Total's ongoing steam cracker shutdown. It is due to restart soon but when its butadiene supply will return to the market remains unclear. Downstream, the emulsion styrene butadiene rubber market fared better, even though margins remain negative at minus $23/mt amid weak demand and rising raw material costs.

Asian monoethylene glycol prices were expected to remain rangebound this week. Supply is seen ample at around 1.338 million mt at the main ports in east China, while demand is waning with polyester producers operating at around 87%. Some MEG producers have trimmed production or started maintenance amid falling prices in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan and Middle East. However in China, MEG was assessed up $7/mt on week at $546/mt CFR China Friday, according to Platts data.

POLYMERS
Asian polyethylene dived to a 10-year low last week dragged down by weak demand and was likely to remain bearish this week amid persisting concerns over US-China trade tensions.

Polypropylene market sentiment was equally bearish, with the impending restart of PP plants in China after turnaround in the near term set to add further supply to the market. PP raffia was assessed at $1,060/mt Friday, unchanged from the day before.

INTERMEDIATES
China's methanol market was expected to be soft this week after the release of a lackluster manufacturing PMI for May and indications that US-China trade tensions have started to weigh on the country's growth. In India, fundamentals look stable to soft, though a major Iranian producer postponing a shipment last week to June 20-30 loading has lent some short-term upside.

The acrylonitrile market is likely to see further price correction this week due to production cuts amid negative margins, and on the back of reports that Ineos' 280,000 mt/year Seal Sands ACN plant in the UK may be resuming production after it shut down earlier in Q1.

Sentiment in the Asian purified terephthalic acid market is likely to remain bearish this week amid lackluster demand. Chinese buyers are likely to continue avoiding dollar-denominated PTA imports as China's domestic PTA is cheaper, sources said. PTA was assessed at $750/mt CFR China Friday, down $20/mt on week, while inventory was forecast to increase 200,000-300,000 mt in the quarter.

Platts Petrochemical
‏ @PlattsPetchems
19 hours ago

Headwinds loom for Asia's #petrochemicals sector amid signs that China's economy has started to slow down as #tradetensions with the US continue and after its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index contracted to 49.4 in May http://plts.co/gvUN50uuYY0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rim Energy News Asia
‏ @RIM_NEWS
23 hours ago

Petrochemicals: May 27-31: Ethylene falls on perceptions of surplus supply - RIM Asia Energy Links https://eng.rim-intelligence.co.jp/news/select/category/Summary/article/15769 …
#petrochemicals #aromatics #benzene #olefins #ethylene #propylene #butadiene

If you look at the chart, Feed stock+Cost price is increasing higher, Variable margin is dropping, and this is for European market. Asia market is worst than that as excess supplies.

Europe-Asia ethylene spread hits 6-year high as prices slide in Asia.

Europe-Asia ethylene spread hits 6-year high as prices slide in Asia

31 May 2019 | 03:49 UTC Singapore

Author: Fumiko Dobashi & Ora Lazic
Editor: Wendy Wells
Commodity: Petrochemicals

Singapore — The spread between ethylene prices in Europe and Asia widened to a six-year high Thursday as prices in Asia fell sharply amid bearishness downstream, S&P Global Platts data showed.

The spread widened $9/mt day on day to $206/mt Thursday, the highest since September 3, 2013, when it was calculated at $207.50/mt, Platts data showed.

The CFR Northeast Asia marker dived $10/mt day on day to be assessed at $930/mt Thursday, while the CIF Northwest Europe marker edged down $1/mt to $1,136/mt.

Ethylene prices in Asia are under pressure due to a fall in downstream plant operations, notably for polyethylene and monoethylene glycol, that are resulting in a surplus of ethylene in the region.

Market sources said ethylene supply was particularly heavy in Southeast Asia due to a fall in linear low density PE plant operations, while excess spot supply was also seen in Taiwan.

Taiwan's Formosa, which sells ethylene only on an occasional basis when inventory is high, has sold 20,000 mt for June and July loading -- its first sales recorded to date in 2019.

In Thailand, PTT has issued a tender to sell a 3,500-5,000 mt spot ethylene cargo for end June loading, after earlier selling 3,500-5,000 mt via tender for mid-June loading. It typically sells only one cargo each month.

On the demand side, spot buying appetite in China for ethylene was limited due to the US-China trade dispute impacting exports of downstream finished plastics products, prompting traders in Asia to hunt for opportunities to move excess cargoes to Europe.

"Northeast Asia is seen to be well-supplied and supply is likely to increase after Hanwha Total restarts its steam cracker," a market source said. "In that case, where can excess supplies from Southeast Asia go?"

South Korea's Hanwha Total delayed the restart of its naphtha-fed steam cracker in Daesan by around a month to early June due to labor strike after it was shut March 27 for maintenance and debottlenecking that will increase its ethylene capacity to 1.4 million mt/year from 1 million mt/year.

Market sources in Asia said the arbitrage window from Asia to Europe was currently open on paper but logistical constraints were likely to hamper any sales. "It usually takes around two months to move Asia cargoes to Europe; by then ethylene demand in Europe will be gone after turnarounds are completed," one market source said.

Ethylene supply is expected to remain tight in Europe amid major turnarounds into June, but ease later in the month as crackers restart.

The FD Northwest Europe spot price has averaged Eur46.38/mt higher to date in May than in April at Eur1,008.26/mt, Platts data showed.

Traders said buying interest in Europe was currently being covered by imports from the US, Middle East and Latin America, and most buyers were covered for the turnaround period.

In addition, ethylene terminals at NWE coastal ports were heard to have been full since April. "Storage seems to be quiet tight because I feel inventory pressure from customers," a trader in Europe said

31 May 2019 | 03:49 UTC Singapore

Europe-Asia ethylene spread hits 6-year high as prices slide in Asia

Author: Fumiko Dobashi & Ora Lazic
Editor: Wendy Wells
Commodity: Petrochemicals

Singapore — The spread between ethylene prices in Europe and Asia widened to a six-year high Thursday as prices in Asia fell sharply amid bearishness downstream, S&P Global Platts data showed.

The spread widened $9/mt day on day to $206/mt Thursday, the highest since September 3, 2013, when it was calculated at $207.50/mt, Platts data showed.

The CFR Northeast Asia marker dived $10/mt day on day to be assessed at $930/mt Thursday, while the CIF Northwest Europe marker edged down $1/mt to $1,136/mt.

Ethylene prices in Asia are under pressure due to a fall in downstream plant operations, notably for polyethylene and monoethylene glycol, that are resulting in a surplus of ethylene in the region.

Market sources said ethylene supply was particularly heavy in Southeast Asia due to a fall in linear low density PE plant operations, while excess spot supply was also seen in Taiwan.

Taiwan's Formosa, which sells ethylene only on an occasional basis when inventory is high, has sold 20,000 mt for June and July loading -- its first sales recorded to date in 2019.

In Thailand, PTT has issued a tender to sell a 3,500-5,000 mt spot ethylene cargo for end June loading, after earlier selling 3,500-5,000 mt via tender for mid-June loading. It typically sells only one cargo each month.

On the demand side, spot buying appetite in China for ethylene was limited due to the US-China trade dispute impacting exports of downstream finished plastics products, prompting traders in Asia to hunt for opportunities to move excess cargoes to Europe.

"Northeast Asia is seen to be well-supplied and supply is likely to increase after Hanwha Total restarts its steam cracker," a market source said. "In that case, where can excess supplies from Southeast Asia go?"

South Korea's Hanwha Total delayed the restart of its naphtha-fed steam cracker in Daesan by around a month to early June due to labor strike after it was shut March 27 for maintenance and debottlenecking that will increase its ethylene capacity to 1.4 million mt/year from 1 million mt/year.

Market sources in Asia said the arbitrage window from Asia to Europe was currently open on paper but logistical constraints were likely to hamper any sales. "It usually takes around two months to move Asia cargoes to Europe; by then ethylene demand in Europe will be gone after turnarounds are completed," one market source said.

Ethylene supply is expected to remain tight in Europe amid major turnarounds into June, but ease later in the month as crackers restart.

The FD Northwest Europe spot price has averaged Eur46.38/mt higher to date in May than in April at Eur1,008.26/mt, Platts data showed.

Traders said buying interest in Europe was currently being covered by imports from the US, Middle East and Latin America, and most buyers were covered for the turnaround period.

In addition, ethylene terminals at NWE coastal ports were heard to have been full since April. "Storage seems to be quiet tight because I feel inventory pressure from customers," a trader in Europe said

LCTitan’s Indonesia expansion plan was based on and future market growing demand in SEA region with GDP growth supported by expanding population would continue to support healthy demand for petrochemical products. But now Petrochemical industry is in the crosshairs of escalating trade war between the US and China that have spawned tariffs on hundreds of products from both countries.

Recent global petrochemical supply imbalance and disruption due to the US-China trade war and slowing global demand are the challenges faced by LCT in the short to medium-term.

Outcome of US-China trade war a priority
Supply of propylene in Asia is expected to be sufficient in the first half of 2019 as new plant startups include China’s Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co. Ltd’s new 450,000 mt/year propane dehydrogenation, or PDH, plant and Fujian Meide Petrochemical Co. Ltd’s 660,000 mt/year PDH plant. Both have planned start-up dates in 2019.
Malaysia’s Petronas-Aramco RAPID project is due to start its new refinery-petrochemical plant in 2019. Their RFCC is expected to produce 600,000 mt/year of propylene by the first quarter of 2019, while its cracker, due to start up later the same year, will be able to produce another 600,000 mt/year of propylene.
Outcome of the US-China trade war are key focus. In November, both governments announced a 90-day truce where no additional tariffs would be implemented until March 1.
A major PDH producer in China said that sentiment in the downstream polypropylene markets, the major driver for propylene demand, was bearish.

US-China trade war to pressure downstream markets
Tariffs on PP were implemented in March, this dampen demand for PP and in turn affect buying interest for propylene.

Olefins
Asian ethylene supplies to increase in H1 2019
2019 term contracts seen done at lower levels than 2018
Lower margins may prompt cracker run cuts
Asian ethylene supplies are expected to increase in the first half of 2019 compared with a year earlier due to fewer steam crackers undergoing maintenance — particularly in Japan — as well as planned startups of new steam crackers and plant debottlenecking.
Of the total 12 steam crackers in Japan, four steam crackers are due to be shut in 2019 for annual maintenance, fewer than the seven steam crackers which were shut a year ago.
In South Korea, several steam cracker operators — such as Hanwha Total and LG Chem — have plans for debottlenecking of their plants next year. These companies plan to install new LPG cracking furnace, which would increase ethylene production capacity in the country by 8.7% from 2018 to 9.74 million mt/year in 2019.
Market sources also said that South Korea’s S-Oil would be contributing more ethylene to the market in 2019 following the start up of its new high-severity residue fluid catalytic cracker, or HS-RFCC, in Onsan in the middle of 2018.
S-Oil’s ethylene supplies were unstable in 2018 due to some hiccups at the plant. The HS-RFCC is able to produce 200,000 mt/year of ethylene.
Market sources said ethylene supplies may become heavier towards the end of 2019 as mega steam crackers will be due for start-up.
In Southeast Asia, Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project is due to start a new steam cracker in 2019. The steam cracker is able to produce 1.2 million mt/year of ethylene. The impact from the project will likely be small in the first-half of next year as the plant start up is expected after the middle of the year, according to market sources.
“This is a very challenging project. The companies are building the refinery to downstream plants as well as utilities from scratch,” an industry source, who visited the construction site this year, said.
S&P Global Analytics said Asia’s ethylene supplies are seen to be increasing 3.5% in 2019, from 2018.
Due to heavy supplies, term contract negotiations for Asian ethylene for 2019 are seen to be weaker compared with 2018. Premiums were heard to have been discussed in the $30-$60/mt range compared with the $70-$80/mt premium at which term contracts were settled at in 2018, market sources said. Term contractual agreements are based on a CFR Northeast Asia-linked formula.

“Asian ethylene supplies are seen to be heavy in 2019, compared with 2018. The premium of term contracts would likely settle lower,” an industry source said.

Additional ethylene supplies will likely pressure spot ethylene prices lower next year, market sources said, adding that the possibility of steam crackers in the region cutting runs will be the “hot topic” for 2019.

The Asian ethylene-naphtha price spread started shrinking in Q4 due to the steep fall in ethylene prices, S&P Global Platts data showed. The price spread between ethylene and naphtha has, at times, been hovering below the $300/mt mark in Q4 — lower than a typical breakeven spread of $300-$350/mt, according to Platts data. The price spread between ethylene and naphtha averaged $650.90/mt in 2018 compared with 696.11/mt in 2017, Platts data showed. “Naphtha is relatively low in 2018 so steam crackers managed to keep their margins positive. But the margins would narrow in 2019, dragged down by bearish ethylene,” a market source said.
Market sources also said naphtha would likely be their first choice of feedstock for steam cracking amid narrowing ethylene margins. Cracking LPG increases the ethylene production yield, and LPG was a popular feedstock for steam cracker operators earlier in 2018 amid fat ethylene margins. Ethylene production yield from LPG cracking is 0.4 compared with 0.23 from naphtha cracking, industry sources said.

US ethylene exports to continue in 2019
US-origin ethylene would continue to be shipped to Asia following steam cracker expansions there, which include Shintech’s 500,000 mt/year steam cracker in Louisiana and Sasol’s 1.55 million mt/year unit in Lake Charles.
“US ethylene market would become super heavy again in 2019 due to the planned steam cracker start-ups, which would pressure Asian ethylene market sentiment, despite export quantity is the same,” a market source said. The FD USG ethylene fell to a record low of $264/mt in May.

The year 2019 promises many significant changes in Asia’s petrochemical markets amid booming production capacity and integration of petrochemical plants and refineries across China, and the global impact inflicted by the US-China trade war.

This will be the year that opens the floodgates for massive new petrochemical capacities being brought on stream by private Chinese companies. They aim to integrate all the way upwards from their purified terephthalic acid and polyester plants to greenfield refineries.

We could see major petrochemical markets like paraxylene, benzene and styrene monomer starting to tilt heavily towards oversupply, potentially hitting global markets. But all this is happening at a time when the two most important drivers of the global economy, China and the US, are in the midst of a trade conflict. Tariffs were imposed in the East and the West with significant implications for many petrochemical markets, and there is no end in sight yet for this trade war.

How are the markets faring as the new year kicks off? Ethylene margins fell significantly in the second half of 2018, while prices for many petrochemical products shed double digit percentage points amid similar declines in feedstock prices. Benzene has struggled with slow demand in China and the US. Among the aromatics, PX seems to be the only bright spot for producers, with prices hovering at $400-$500/mt above naphtha.

However, producers have been quick to lower their 2019 term contract offers from high double digits to low single digits in a likely prelude to the volatile drama that may take place in the Asian PX market in 2019.

There is no shortage of suspense in the petrochemical world as we enter 2019, and the year could pan out as one of the most interesting in recent times.

To gsi723: Yes, Trade War has redraw trade flows, with tariff on, China company may buy from other markets including SEA.

China alone will see the new plants startup, India as well start to become self-sufficient as new plants that were started up in 2017 with stabilize production. New demands will be increasingly met by new plants in China, India and Iran.

Trade flows are set to change as more Middle Eastern cargoes are sold within the region instead of exported, while free trade agreements will keep supply from ASEAN member countries within the ASEAN region.

India’s exports to China will rise as the country will become self-sufficient, Taiwan will likely continue expanding its exports to China. Although China remains as importer, sellers will also have to compete with China’s increasing domestic production.

Many Petrolchemical company add more projects and building new plants expect future demand growth but didn't expect Trade War happen. In commodity market, prices are base on supply and demand.

The US petrochemical industry is experiencing unprecedented growth with production of ethylene expected to exceed 45 million mt/year by 2025, Enterprise CEO Jim Teague said in a statement.

With Trade War going on, all US products will flood to Asian market as China will not buy more and also economy growth slow down due to trade war.

Year 2019 will be very challenging for LC with over supply and low selling price.

1.03% that is about 25 million of share to be distributed to Public to meet requirement.

Will LC increase earning over time? No.
For 2019 & 2020 the earning will be significantly low compare to previous quarters. Due to compressed spreads higher depreciation and taxes. LCT delivered core net profit of only RM33mil in Q1 FY19, down 86% on-year on the back of on-year declines in average selling prices (ASP) which more than outweighed the drop in naphtha prices.Depreciation costs rose 31% on-year due to the commissioning of the PP3 polypropylene plant in Pasir Gudang from Sept 1, 2018, and because turnaround costs are now being depreciated over a shorter period.Effective tax rate rose significantly as reinvestment allowances in relation to the PP3 capex were fully used up in FY18.
Q1 FY19 average naphtha prices falling 8.5% on-quarter, product spreads generally declined, with HDPE-naphtha spreads falling 8.7% on-quarter, PP-naphtha spreads falling 6.1% on-quarter, and benzene-naphtha spreads down 66% on-quarter. From February 2019 onward, oil prices have staged a rebound, and naphtha prices have followed. While spot product prices have crept up, the increase has not been enough to keep up with rising naphtha prices, hence spot product spreads have declined in Apr from Q1 FY19 averages.

Converting sales to profits? No.
In fact the revenue will drop as less demand & over supply flood to the Asian market due to China trade war and tariff applied to US petrochemical. The additional tariff of 25% levied against 2,493 goods including liquefied natural gas, soy oil, peanut oil, petrochemicals, frozen vegetables and cosmetics.

Stock currently undervalue? No. Potential upside in price target? No.
Spreads in April are even weaker than in 1Q19 due to the naphtha price rally, putting 2Q19F earnings at risk
PE now at 11.4 at current price, in another 2 quarters, PE will shoot up to 30 plus after earning result out, Stock price will be adjusted and share price will drop further.

Is demand increase in near term? No.
The continuation of the weakness seen during 4Q18, and was the result of poor demand from Chinese factories, and the diversion of US polyolefin exports to Southeast Asia from their traditional market in China due to the imposition of 25% import tariffs by China when the US-China trade war broke out.
Trade war will make economy slow down in 2020, and trade war escalating after US target at China Tech companies. Trade war will go on.

Is oversupply problem still exist? Yes.
The global oversupply of ethylene-based petrochemicals (from US-based capacity additions) and heightened competition from Pchem’s Pengerang plants (which may start up in 2020F) as the key downside risks. LC planned to cut MEG production June for around two to three months. Downstream Petrochemical plants have reduced production in China amid weak demand and the ongoing US-China trade dispute, with the overall operating rates dropping to 89% and the rates are expected to fall further.
With slower economy growth , more Petrochemical plant form India & China coming up will add to supply demand issue.

Now got so many better counters they have drop so much and have better changes to re-bounce in near term, will must stuck your money here for long term?

wongkokmum, why you so hurry to catch bottom, they is another 2, 3 or 4 term quarters to come for you to catch bottom. If they is a re-bounce, if will drop further as traders will keep cutting loss and pull down further. Only enter a down trend stock when you see positive catalyst in near future.

US banned Huawei has basically openly declared a full-fledged war with China, trade war will go on even negotiation carry on ....

Effective tax rate rose significantly as reinvestment allowances in relation to the PP3 capex were fully used up in FY18.

Spreads in April are even weaker than in Q1 FY19 due to the naphtha price rally, putting Q2, FY19F earnings at risk.

From February 2019 onwards, oil prices have staged a rebound, and naphtha prices have followed. While spot product prices have crept up, the increase has not been enough to keep up with rising naphtha prices, hence spot product spreads have declined in Apr from Q1 FY19 averages.

While LCT is partially protected by lagging naphtha inventory costs, 2Q19F earnings are unlikely to be strong. If such conditions continue for the rest of 2Q19F and into 2H19F, earnings estimates are at risk.

The upside could arise from a potential resolution of the US-China trade war and the dismantling of Chinese tariffs on US polyolefin exports.

The global oversupply of ethylene-based petrochemicals (from US-based capacity additions) and heightened competition from Petronas Chemicals’s Pengerang plants (which may start up in 2020F) as the key downside risks.

The continuation of the weakness seen during 4Q18, and was the result of poor demand from Chinese factories, and the diversion of US polyolefin exports to Southeast Asia from their traditional market in China due to the imposition of 25% import tariffs by China when the US-China trade war broke out.

US banned Huawei has basically openly declared a full-fledged war with China, trade war will go on....

Is a bad news If Donald Trump involved, China will not buy from US/Lotte, over supply again, then all product flood to Asian, ASP will drop. Any way this year is rough time for LC.

Market already hit by over supply as a result of trade tension, LC profit margin will not recover in 2019. If go for dividend, in another 2 quarters the PE ratio will shoot up to above 30, price will drop further.

Yes, agreed with Huatexpert.

But still is supply and demand that have an effect on their average selling price, if China still don't want to buy from US or economy slow down, the Asia market will become over supply and lower ASP will hit LC's profit margin. If next 1 or 2 quarter earning result are so so, PE will shoot up, market will adjust the share price according to the PE.

At current market situation, i don't see any support to push price higher in near term. Now people buy because of thinking price have drop down very low and the dividend look good, but price will continue drop if coming financial report doesn't look good.

I also very tempted to buy at this price with dividend next week, but the risk is after dividend short term traders may sell their share or if market mover decide to come in to push lower and will trigger another round of selling & cut loss action.

May be better wait after Ex date adjustment and see how it go....

Last few days open high and close low but at last call always got some one push up the price higher, also higher buy rate but price not moving up. This is the same scenario before quarter result was out, price at RM4 range for more than a week with high buy rate, and someone keep release tickets, when result out, the price plunged.

not possible to drop until 2 lah, but around 3 possible

Are those chemical plants end products same with LC? Are they taking opportunity on market supply situation to shut down?