Laughgaodiemeliao

Laughgaodiemeliao | Joined since 2016-01-14

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General

2016-01-15 21:38 | Report Abuse

Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists

Royal Bank of Scotland warns of ‘cataclysmic’ year with slumps in shares and oil and advises clients to shift to bonds

Stock markets have already come under severe pressure in 2016, with the FTSE 100 down more than 5% in its worst start since 2000.

Nick Fletcher
Tuesday 12 January 2016

Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned.

In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.

Stock markets have already come under severe pressure in 2016, with the FTSE 100 down more than 5% in its worst start since 2000. In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average has made its poorest ever start to a year.

Oil prices have also fallen sharply on fears of lower demand and a supply glut, especially with Iran due to start exporting once more when sanctions are lifted. Tensions between Iran and Saudia Arabia make it less likely that Opec can agree to cut production to halt the slide in prices. Brent crude is down another 1% at $31.18, its lowest level since April 2004.

Investors have been spooked by fears of a severe slowdown in the Chinese economy and a fall in the value of the yuan, not helped by a crash in the country’s stock market despite attempts by the country’s authorities to curtail selling.

Andrew Roberts, RBS’s credit chief, said: “China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the ‘Goldilocks love-in’ of the last two years.”

Markets have been supported for some time by low interest rates, stimulus measures from central banks including quantitative easing, and hopes of economic recovery. But with the Federal Reserve raising rates and the Bank of England expected to follow suit, that prop is being removed.

Roberts said European and US markets could fall by 10% to 20%, with the FTSE 100 particularly at risk due to the predominance of commodity companies in the UK index. “London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are long [buyers of] oil and mining companies thinking that the dividends are safe are going to discover that they’re not at all safe.

“We suspect 2016 will be characterised by more focus on how the exiting occurs of positions in the three main asset classes that benefited from quantitative easing: 1) emerging markets, 2) credit, 3) equities … Risks are high.”


RBS is not the only negative voice at the moment. Analysts at JP Morgan have advised clients to sell stocks on any bounce.

Morgan Stanley has said oil could fall to $20 a barrel, while Standard Chartered has predicted an even bigger slide, to as low as $10. Standard said: “Given that no fundamental relationship is currently driving the oil market towards any equilibrium, prices are being moved almost entirely by financial flows caused by fluctuations in other asset prices, including the US dollar and equity markets.

“We think prices could fall as low as $10 a barrel before most of the money managers in the market conceded that matters had gone too far.”


http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

Stock

2016-01-15 21:25 | Report Abuse

slow slow wait la, meantime u can eat more big head vege and sleep early to dream la.

General

2016-01-15 21:16 | Report Abuse

Prepare for stocks to fall another 10%: Larry Fink
Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere
16 Mins Ago
CNBC.com

BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink said Friday the stock market could fall another 10 percent and oil prices could test $25 per barrel.

"We're in the midst of a real market decline, bordering on a bear market," he told "Squawk Box" on CNBC. "But the speed at which this is happening is just a reassessment of the risk, reassessment of where we're going."

Read MoreBob Doll: I don't see a bear market, but ...
U.S. stock futures were crumbling Friday morning, with Dow futures down nearly 300 points, as oil tanked. The resumption of the decline follows Thursday's sharp increase on Wall Street.

Despite Thursday's gains, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq composite remained in correction, a threshold of 10 percent or more to the downside from all-time highs. But the S&P 500 was able to narrowly escape correction territory ahead of Friday's trading.

If the market were to fall another 10 percent, as predicted by Fink, that would put stocks in a bear market, as defined by a decline of 20 percent from new highs.

"I believe there's not enough blood in the street. We'll probably going to have to test the markets lower," he said. "When we test the markets lower, it's going to be a pretty good buying opportunity."

Read MoreBlackRock earnings miss, revenue beats estimates

Fink does not believe stocks will enter what he calls a classic bear market. "I always look at a bear market ... [as] persistent water torture, day after day after day after day. I'm not sure this is what we call a classic bear market.

But by the second half of the year, Fink said, the stock market should be higher. "Over the course of the next six months, we think it's going to feel a lot better."

"There's not that much leverage in the system," he said. "That's why all the analogies to 2008 and 2009 are erroneous. We don't have that type of leverage."

As for oil, prices were plunging Friday morning, with West Texas Intermediate crude down more than 5 percent. WTI was trading under $30 per barrel, after posting the first significant gains for 2016 in the previous session.

"But my worry about oil prices today I'm sure nine out 10 of your guests talk about oil is going lower now so it's a very heavy trade," Fink said.

Read MoreTHIS will bring oil producers to their knees: Kilduff

These sharp moves in oil and the dismal start of the year for the stock market put negativity across the U.S. economy, he said. "It's] a negativity to every CEO who is looking at his or her stock price [as well as] a negativity related to business and the forward thinking about businesses."

"I actually believe you're going to start seeing more layoffs in the middle part of the first quarter, definitely the second quarter." he warned.

Stock

2016-01-15 21:10 | Report Abuse

all the Icon promote stocks will melt like ice-cream.

Stock

2016-01-15 21:08 | Report Abuse

this shit going back to 85c

Stock
Stock

2016-01-15 18:30 | Report Abuse

holland wait for you. 50c la.

Stock

2016-01-15 18:06 | Report Abuse

u ppls play ScamWolf sure kena burn one.

Stock

2016-01-15 18:02 | Report Abuse

give u song 24 hours and torture you next 24 years.

Stock

2016-01-15 17:48 | Report Abuse

slow slow wait la. see you at 1.00

News & Blogs

2016-01-15 17:34 | Report Abuse

i offer to train horse on my expenses, i must choose the right horse to train ma. laosi limping horse come to me ask for free training. how can? i dont have so much time and resources, even if i have, they are more deserving candidate.

like that u understand or not?

for those horses that i rejected, i show u evidence why i rejected them. i know they will bad mouth me outside.

Stock

2016-01-15 17:31 | Report Abuse

wakakaka. 2.00 coming

News & Blogs

2016-01-15 17:27 | Report Abuse

biggest holland ship in the history of i3.

ship name :Icon8888

General

2016-01-15 17:20 | Report Abuse

dj futures -250 now. wakakaka.

tonite may drop 600 points.

General

2016-01-15 17:19 | Report Abuse

haiz. u ppls only know how to chase stocks. pity u la.

now oil at usd 29 only.

bolehland big wok liao la.

News & Blogs

2016-01-15 09:43 | Report Abuse

i raise hands raise legs and raise ggj AGREED !!!



Albert Einstein > Quotes > Quotable Quote

“Great spirits have always encountered opposition from mediocre minds. The mediocre mind is incapable of understanding the man who refuses to bow blindly to conventional prejudices and chooses instead to express his opinions courageously and honestly.”

News & Blogs
Stock

2016-01-14 21:27 | Report Abuse

so fast dreaming? you all pls don't talk like analyst la ok???

what farking you have in stock valuation?



Posted by ACELEE > Jan 14, 2016 09:25 PM | Report Abuse

Is time to take some rest for dufu after a 100m sprint,lets rest a while and we continue with a marahton till Feb and if the result is within expectation (My conservative assumptions of 2 cents EPS),then we will meet you as high as 1.00-1.2 during May 2015.

Stock

2016-01-14 21:24 | Report Abuse

yes. he has hallucination issues.


Posted by huatgor289 > Jan 14, 2016 09:24 PM | Report Abuse

i think greatful got mental problem. He go everywhere shout at the stock drop then he can buy at lower price. Include KTC..lol

Stock

2016-01-14 21:23 | Report Abuse

wakakaka.

this Sifu so chun.


Posted by zbaikitree > Dec 3, 2015 11:23 PM | Report Abuse

no brake. 50c

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 21:14 | Report Abuse

this is a stock that cannot make you profit at this level. waste your time and money and keep hoping but nothing will happen. its called CCB stock.

Stock
News & Blogs

2016-01-14 21:04 | Report Abuse

he already bank in to me liao.

Stock

2016-01-14 20:57 | Report Abuse

mr rocket launching. your face so thick still dare to appear here ka.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 20:56 | Report Abuse

zzzzz. talk for the sake of talking. zzzzz.


Posted by Probability > Jan 14, 2016 08:55 PM | Report Abuse

If you had studied the Money Flow cycle……You will know that for the System to sustain, eventually the Income has to equal Consumption.
For some Income is higher than Consumption (e.g, the Rich)
Savings = Income – Consumption.

Savings is only a temporary thing which has to flow to the Banks and then taken as Borrowings for Investments (expenditure) with the ‘hope’ of future Income generation (of course only way is by future Consumption by the Future generations).

The law is simple, eventually Savings has to become Nil and Consumption has to = Income.
This is the fundamental reason why the COMMUNISM concept came to surface.

The population is like one BIG FAMILY (whether u like it or not)….if you don’t spend your savings, someone else will…it could be your kids (if you don’t have kids.. its either your relatives or the Banks!)

So, its completely sensible to spend your ‘Excess money’ for Charity…..as in the long run …your childrens are no different than any of other’s childrens. Hopefully at 83 Koon might have a feel /realization on this…..

Stock

2016-01-14 20:55 | Report Abuse

Literally Selling point.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 20:24 | Report Abuse

a proper letter to apply from KYY goes like this.




RE:Admiration of a great philanthropist Cum a super investor (Asia Warrant Buffet some say George Soros


Good day Sir !

I have been following your movement and acting and i cannot help but giving you my Utmost Admiration for your Great deeds done on
1) Uphold the fair political party in malaysia and promote racial harmony, also to dissociate with the Useless MCA.
2) educating the malaysian public on stock investment. provide timely entry and exit and 99% make return as much as 800% within 2 years.
3) providing scholarship to poor and needy students to continue their tertiary education. not forgetting donating rm50 million to built a hostel for them. all self-less, with nothing demand in return.
4) very macho looking even at the age of 83. you look younger than my father who is 63.
5) fill in the blanks
6)
7) bla bla

to conclude, i wish to write a BOOK on you and i will publish it in Amazon by mid 2016. if u don't mind.


p.s I NEED A SCHOLARSHIP OF RM500K TO STUDY MEDICINE. MY BANK ACCT IS : XXXX-XXXX-XXXXX.

Thank you first.

Ldm Liao.

News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2016-01-14 18:43 | Report Abuse

mr koon wont die so soon. he has just replaced/overhauled his kidney, lung, intestine, heart. and ggj. all money can buy. and he has it.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 18:40 | Report Abuse

tiuniasing la, u donno why ppls sell kidney ka?


tell me who buy the kidney? poor man ka.


always the poor man sell kidney to the rich man. never the other way.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 18:39 | Report Abuse

icon u live in your own world never go out and see the world isit?
in ancient china, rich man can offer to buy your baby and cook it and eat la.

aiyo. u from Mars isit?

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 18:34 | Report Abuse

come on la, the world has been like that richman can enslave poor man if not u think why got brothel?

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 18:29 | Report Abuse

its just like when you heard of a lady who is an easy target.

u go up to her and say, hi, i want to fark u, bcos. a)i heard u r offering free fark. i nid to fark. b) i dont have anyone to fark. c) my ggj is hard now. d) i will thanks you a million if u allow me to fark u now.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 18:27 | Report Abuse

correct la, at least get someone to help them write a better letter.


1956 > Jan 14, 2016 06:24 PM | Report Abuse

whoever brought them up to think help grows on trees?
If they are going to ask for help they better learn to do a better job, fake the letters even if they have to.
For producing shitty work, they deserve to be insulted in public even.
That is how people can grow from weakness to strength.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 18:23 | Report Abuse

today i very happy day.... very happy!


wakakakaak.

Stock

2016-01-14 18:13 | Report Abuse

game over! all got trap. see u next year.

Stock

2016-01-14 17:54 | Report Abuse

this sifu so chun wor....


today low 1.13


zbaikitree SEACERA - SUSPENSION OF TRADING
SEACERA - SUSPENSION OF TRADINGILC-11012016-00005Kindly be advised that at the request of the above Company, the trading in theCompany's securities will be suspended with effect from 9.00 a.m., Tuesday, 12January 2016, pending an announcement.SVP, Issuers




it never said pending a material annoucement. if the annoucement is nothing much. then can see it drop back to support at 1.10-1.15 area.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 17:42 | Report Abuse

p.s 2.

if u want to know how i look like (sorry i cannot afford to buy camera due to family poor, father useless), u can google Jack Ma.

i look exactly like him and height is slightly shorter than him.

p.s 3. Jack Ma is the richest man in China now. dont play play with me hor.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 17:39 | Report Abuse

i want to be a hollywood star, mr koon pls sponsor me to NewYork Institute of Performing Art. school fee for 4 years degree only USD 400k, u can easily afford la. its my dream, i have strong determination to be a superstar. like jacky chan, or clint eastwood.

my CV attached.

i am form 5 drop out. my height is 4feet 5 inch, i am a male,

my face full of pimples, and i walk like pregnant woman.

i believe i can make it in hollywood!

pls support me. thank you first hor.

Stock

2016-01-14 17:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by zbaikitree2 > Jan 10, 2016 12:38 AM | Report Abuse

not to sure if any of u know this co is controlled by DT? yes u cannot find any trace from list of directors. wakakakaka.


if VT make u ppls piss in pants and went to holland so many times. imagine what DT would do? go see tropicana.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 17:27 | Report Abuse

mr koon, pls dont remove, i have a lot of fun reading this thread.

thank you.

LDM. Liao.

Stock

2016-01-14 17:24 | Report Abuse

another of pump and dump stock. game over liao.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 17:21 | Report Abuse

i now find that i have a lot of similarities with Mr Koon and i like him more.



wakakakakak. laughdieme liao.

p.s, i would do the same if i am giving away scholarship.

News & Blogs

2016-01-14 12:50 | Report Abuse

you go stay in taiwan hk and come back here and tell me how moronic is bolehland ppls.