1. Why stock price for big 4 dropped early this morning before Harta released its result?
2. Why Harta rebounded strongly after a weak result?

Its because market already knew & moved in advanced. Fund managers have been waiting for this opportunity to grab cheap tickets of Harta, in big volume.

Let the share price speak itself. Just look at the share price by this month end & year end.

The sell off is temporary, tickets are not many. Pandemic is here to stay for at least another 2 years. Demand for glove after pandemic will increase 30-40%. But glove price can’t increase another 2 or 3 folds for OBM. Manufacturing price for OEM is catching up soon & fast.

The choice is yours if you still wanna chase high on Supermx.

No one is promoting Harta here except you in your earlier posts. Mr_Kiah the first one highlighted Harta result is not good (I know also). Dont act like you know stock investment skills.

The most you know maybe the quarter profit through your previous network.

According to Hartalega CEO Kuan Mun Leong, there will be structural step-up increase in demand of 30%-40% post-pandemic period. Demand in the next few years will still be very very strong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDhgdI4aPXI

Computation on the adjustment of CW exercise price for bonus issues

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=105154&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

Maybank top pick is Kossan while CIMB top pick is TopGlov. I will wait for the price of Kossan catching up with Supermx in the coming weeks, while someone keeps giving same stale news. How could you make same investment decision based on info available 2 months ago?

Bonus issue is definitely on the card for Kossan by this year, most likely in Aug together with Q2 result, in order to list the bonus shares and boost the market cap by this year end. It’s crucial to beat supermx market cap to guarantee to be placed as a FBM KLCI component stock by this year.

Maybank TP 19.50 & UOB 19.40. CIMB revised TP 16.40 was history.

Cos market will be in red dragged by profit taking activities triggered by Supermax. That’s why we need to differentiate kossan with Supermax. Good apple vs bad apple...

Kossan Q3 ASP will increase 20% in Jul & another 20% in Aug. Total 40%. Supermax anyway near? ;-)

Second half will be OEM counters play. To match this 40%, OBM like Supermx need to sell 140% x USD 160 = USD 224, just to match back the profit increase in %. How likely this will happen? We are hoping for it too. Haha.

Kossan trading volume low cos much of the tickets are hold by the owner & fund managers. A small % is only hold by retail investors.

Absolute volume of the trading amount comparison among peers doesnt have much meanings on the share price, except on liquidity concern for big players. The more important is the relative of the trading volume for the same stock over different time period.

Supermx coming quarter gross profit hits 500m & Topglov hits 1b is a known fact. Seasoned glove investors who follows this forum should have known it.

To be a successful investor, you need to have 2nd level of thinking. An open secret everyone knows will not reward you much. You need to start position yourself for Jul to Sep result by now. If CY 3Q ASP same like 2Q, there will no profit grow for Supermx. Why? It already sell at maximum price now! Its current price has already full reflected the coming quarter profit x 4 quarters, based on its 5 years average PE of 15.

You think uncle Koon switch stock to TopGlov without waiting supermx result out is for fun? Why not he make 2 rounds by selling Supermx after the quarter result is out then only buy TopGlov?

Hold on tight your Kossan shares. Not much tickets in the market. Rotate play is started among big 4.

Supermx share price will be stampede once the result is out. The QR result is the last carrot tangled that keep its investors around. This is the last chance to exit before it’s happened. Good luck to supermx holders!

Glove is gold, & not the business model. Who has more gloves, who is the king.

To switch from OEM to OBM during this period is so easy like a piece of cake. Buyers are queuing long in front of your factory & you dont even need to do any marketing, especially you're the big 3. Then why big 3 dont do? Answer has been given by Kossan boss which make laugh by ppl who dont understand business... sustainability after post-Covid.

Uncle Koon sell call on Supermx.

Spot price of glove peaked at USD160 since mid April and stagnant till now. Supermax has enjoyed this price for most of its Q2 revenue due to its unique OBM model. its Q2 profit will be fantastic, as reflected in its current share price & today's bonus issued. To up another 100% profit in Q3, it needs to sell its glove at USD320. Is it possible?

The key drivers of profit is ASP, where supermx has already reaped the max in its Q2 result. In contrast, there are still plenty of potential upside in ASP for OEM players like TopGlov & Kossan. They has so far increased 5% in ASP (<USD30) (to be reflected in Kossan Q2 result). Based on Supermx analyst slides, its manufacturing price has increased to USD90, which indicates potential profit of 1000% to both TopGlov & Kossan, perhaps happened by this year end.

There will be shift in the supply chain which will create temporary shortage in US, & drive the price up further. US consumes 30% of global supply per year.

I wont blame the owner of Kossan, at least he didnt blow up the Kossan share price during the AGM, or interviewed by Bloomberg. He just cashed out small portion of share for his other purposes in life, when the price was high & the volume was huge, with the aim to keep minimal disruption to Kossan share price.

He might still sell more when the price goes higher in future... The choice is your if you believe in his management style, & not whether he sell his small portion of share, when its right time to realise some profit.

**It will be bad signal if he keep pressing the share price down due to his selling. 14th Jul selling is coincide with some 'big' event which not triggered by him. Let keep monitor.

Even Top Glove might be appear as a pure winner from this tragedy. If i was the boss, i will sell the gloves to other countries, perhaps emerging market, eg India, & Latin America, with SPOT price.

According to MARGMA, glove makers having an average order backlog of 6-8 months, as well as the growing severity of Covid-19 globally. For example, India has seen its glove consumption rise from 4 to 30 pcs per capita, given its large population of 1.2bn, and the demand for gloves is outstripping supply in the region.

Which counters will be benefited the most if Top Glove couldn't access to US market? Market will only reward ppl with independent thinking & not the herd mentality.

Mystery of the sudden dropped yesterday has been revealed, as per uncle Koon's recent posts on tulips & OTB's advice to his followers to sell supermx.

Hold tight to your Kossan shares. Supermax share price has fully reflected after up 10 folds & Harta QR result will be up much lesser in % than Kossan. Expect to see continous stagnant or drop in Harta. Hope it wont pull the legs of others.

Time to focus on big 2 now. Let the high risk taker investors to chase the small cap glove stocks for higher returns.

Seems like uncle Koon lost his confident. Either way he is right by giving ambiguous signal. The price ended today will tell the direction. With this kind of trading volume, he is just another individual investor vs local & foreign fund.

Kossan is only glove stock in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI reserve list, after Harta & TopGlov.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/06/04/tm-klccp-included-in-klci-30-stock-list

One of the main reasons for the recent rally in big 4, is the successful listing of Sri Trang Glove Thailand (STGT) on 2nd July 20. The IPO priced at 34 TB & the current price as at 10th July 20 is 74.50TB, a very impressive increase of 119% since the IPO within 1 week's time. Ringgit 2b fund has been raised (30% of the total company shares).

This prices the company at 14.5b in ringgit currently. For simple comparison, Kossan price after the rally last week is priced at 15.8b.

Below is the simple comparison between STGT and Kossan on other aspects:

a) annual production capacity (year 2019): 27b (STGT) vs 32b (Kossan)
b) % of nitrile glove: 35% (STGT) vs 80% (Kossan)
c) Revenue 1Q20: 3,761m TB, or 512m MYR equivalent vs 611m (Kossan)
d) 1Q20 profit: 421.89m TB, or 57.5m MYR equivalent vs 82.5m (Kossan)

In short, there is still huge investment demand in glove stocks globally. The glove stocks in Malaysia are fairly price with global peers.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/15100/stgt-listing-is-full-of-potential-amid-rubber-glove-boom-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

http://stgt.listedcompany.com/misc/mdna/20200701-stgt-mdna-1q2020-en.pdf

The huge securities trading value will be partly offset by the significant drop in derivatives trading. My high level guess is 10% gross profit up compared to last quarter.

Top glove last quarter result ended May 20 also only up 5% ASP. This mainly due to earlier order prior to the peak of the Covide in end of Mar/ Apr (order lead time of 45 - 60 days pre-Covid). The result is already good enough. :-)

Just some points to add:
1) Plan 19 will be completed in end July/ August 20. Production will up by 15% to 20%,
2) Material for nitrile glove, ie. butadiene is at historical low in Jun, in tandem with the raw material (petroleum) price, and will slowly rebound,
3) The new plant purchased next door in Klang will be splited in 2 phases (5 billion pieces), & should contribute to production as early as end of this year (1st phase of 6 production lines out of 16), by tapping on their factory's infrastructure.

Bonus issue normally announced together with the quarter result.

Bonus should be in the card this year, to beat QL market cap & secure FBM KLCI component stocks by year end. The difference is only 1b, 6.75% based on yesterday closing price.

Supermx hits RM13 & Kossan hits RM12++. Welldone!

CIMB just revised TP to RM13.80 yesterday. Think they going to revise again if the share price hits this TP sooner than they expected.

They are always 2 side of the coins, pros vs cons. Poison for you might be the medicine for many others. Many ppl chase for high risk high return, but for many of us here, we are happy with low risk with medium return. Something that you dont how know to appreciate now.

Uncle Koon mentioned Supermax will potentially included as FBM KLCI component stock index by year end. However Supermax is not in the reserve list at the first place. Instead Kossan has the biggest chance among the reserve candidates, ie Kossan, QL Resources, F&N, Westport & Gamuda.

Tomorrow Kossan AGM. Let hope for some good news.

Kossan is the most value buy among all glove stocks. No need to doubt.

They think they are... Only seasoned investors experience enough to know what’s going to happen next, & next after next. Let the profit & share price speak itself.

Ask yourself a question, if you can choose only one glove stock to ALL IN at current price, which will you choose? Only ppl who invested in Kossan now will know what I meant.

Noobie33 Yes, the exercise price be adjusted accordingly.

3-ply-surgical mask before Covid RM10 per box (50 pieces). Now ppl say it 'drops' to RM18. The manufacturers are still very happy to sell at RM18, cos ASP increase 80%. Simple maths will tell you how many folds of profit they still earn even based on current price.

Factually inaccurate on ASP hike impact to profitability. Maybe mix up Harta with Top Glove?

Defence has to start from here.

龙头股一荣俱荣。。。反之亦然. The sharks attack the weakness.

TG (Spore) daily trading value in ringgit term is not even 5% of Malaysia market. Not really a good reference...

I’m not sure about IB. For commercial banks, they invest into investment grade corporate bonds. Top glove convertible band is one of it. There is a clean up call option in the Top Glove convertible bond, ie if the total outstanding bonds In the market less than 10% of the original issued principal amount, the issuer has the right to early redeem all the bonds.

With the current trend of bond conversion due to high returns (200% even with current share price compared with original dividend yield of 2%), investors will convert the bond early to avoid to be caught as the last 10% under the clean up call).

Tickets in the market will increase. If IB intends to short this counter, this is a better way.

i sold all my topglove shares but still hold tight with my kossan.

Reasons? Cos 15% margin expansion Top Glove (from 10% to 25% on gross margin) breakdown is as follows:

a) 5% on weakening of MYR
b) 5% on cost saving from raw material, especially on nitrile price, and

c) 5% on ASP increase


Factors (a) & (b) is the common factors enjoys by all glove stocks, & most important, its sustainable. These 2 factors enough to bring Kossan next quarter profit to be double.

Coz it’s under value still. The cheapest among all glove stocks.

Definitely big players have higher negotiation power. ASP will follow the market leader, TG. It’s an efficient market anyway. Just a matter of time.

A pair of gloves only costs USD $0.06 x 2, MYR equivalent 50 sen. Still reasonable & affordable.

All the investment bankers after practised cut their own hair once thought they are the expert hair stylist d

Hope someone don’t lose his job due to this ‘brilliant’ idea to cap the share price value. Especially it is proven by the solid earnings, eg Supermax. Most the margin acct holders will redeem their financing to other banks.

I’m more optimistic about nitrile glove vs latex stocks as recommended by most analysts. Kossan is my first choice. 1Q result should be out tomorrow. Hope today Supermx result is above expectations