Wish war ends as soon as possible, as well as europe unfriendly policy towards sustainable palm oil player.

Does palm oil companies sell on spot price? or sell Call contracts to lock in profit at certain price?

Looking forward for CPO powered Airbus ... LOL
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/airbus-a380-plane-powered-cooking-6872036

AGM takeaway:
Target for FY22 2B sales
subsidiary and JV will bring in few hundred million cash flow this year.
Eyeing BTR and bulk purchase potential
To grow Management services for Recurring income
in Progress project not much affected by material cost spike as most are in end of completion stage
Management is actively sell leftover to get the cash back (hence the low margin in recent quarters)

In summary, the management is doing a good job, though I dont like their dividend policy over share buy back. maybe the tycoons invested prefers cash instead of share price growth.

But with share price way below NTA, and expected good cash flow, gearing ratio going down, share buy back works better for long term shareholder value.

their buy sell amount is insignificant to their holdings, both the siblings takes a million in salary+ benefit. buy selling few hundred thousands shares with movement of 10 cents is just a 100k up down, no big deal.

Most company dont pay dividend during pandemic unless they are pro-covid.

I prefer them to do share buy back or par down debt with the money instead of dividend distribution, dividend distribution just follow by share price drops.

with debt down, even the cycle ends, the company will have handsome cash flow and profit.

If the stock price is undervalue, just buy back as much as possible.

The border lockdown in HK and China will affect near term sales. that's all. but the sanction on Russia seems to raise a lot of unrest within the China super rich class. Few friends from China is asking me about immigrating, lets wait and see what shall happen when their cases fall.

the new workers entry will only happens in Q3 onwards, which requires patience. which is mostly lack in retail investor . LOL

But the good thing is Q3/4 is peak harvesting season.

https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2022-03-15/doc-imcwipih8553399.shtml

高位波动剧烈，棕榈油惨遭跌停

多重利空因素叠加，今日棕榈油05合约惨遭跌停，持仓大减1.8万手。棕榈油与上周截然不同的惨淡表现，主要受到几个利空消息的打压：

1、俄乌和谈预期之下，商品回吐风险升水。周末期间俄乌和谈预期增强，乌克兰谈判代表称乌俄正趋于就签署全面和综合协议达成妥协，俄罗斯谈判也释放出积极的信号，称谈判取得实质性进展。今晚俄乌将开启第四轮谈判，和谈预期下商品市场提前回吐部分风险升水，继续关注稍晚的谈判结果。

2、国内多省市新冠疫情反扑，部分地区开启封闭式管理，市场担忧将对油脂餐饮需求不利。此外，疫情导致相关地区物流受到较大影响，而此前在价格高位之下豆粕中下游物理库存普遍不高，豆粕的强势表现令油粕比出现一定松动，对油脂略施压。

3、更重要的因素可能在于市场对印尼放开出口限制的恐慌，这体现在今天棕榈油表现显著弱于豆油和菜油。在上周GAPKI给出印尼1月较好的棕榈油产量及高达468万吨的1月末库存之后，市场已经有些担心库存在收紧的进口下将快速恢复，印尼出口限制政策随时可能被取消。怕什么来什么，今天就有传言称印尼政府可能在这周以内宣布有关DPO国内价格义务和DMO国内市场义务政策的修改，配合出口商大幅调降CNF报价，市场传言一度认为DMO政策将取消（即放开出口限制）。

我们认为，相对靠谱的传言是取消DPO但保持DMO不变。对最高限价规定的取消有助于印尼国内棕榈油价格更贴近国内市场供需，减少出口商囤货惜售的可能。但考虑到上周印尼刚把强制出口商供应国内的棕榈油比例提高至30%，政策应不至于如此朝令夕改，短期取消DMO政策的概率偏小，我们认为市场反应略有些过度。

继印尼、乌克兰、俄罗斯等国限制关键产品出口之后，为应对国内价格飙升，昨日阿根廷农业部才刚暂停豆油及豆粕的出口注册，计划将出口关税提高至33%。新冠疫情对供应链的破坏导致大宗商品出现较长时间的上涨，目前很多国家都面临着较为严峻的通胀压力，尤其是在食品上。近期多国陆续收紧关键农产品(5.260, -0.18, -3.31%)的出口政策，俄乌冲突引发的供应担忧只不过是一个导火索，根源其实在于有限的全球供给及高企的价格。在这种环境下，即使俄乌和谈，供应链的恢复也不会很快完成，压榨、运输、装运等工作的恢复需要时间，完全可能导致供需在时间上的错配，因而这些收紧出口政策的国家未必就能很快放松出口限制。

一旦后期印尼放松出口的传言出现证伪的情况，随着市场情绪修复，棕榈油价格仍可能获得重新回升的动能。而即便印尼确实放开出口限制，黑海地区的葵油出口也随和谈重新恢复，在南美大豆产量同比大降2500万吨以上，美豆扩种及单产面临挑战的背景下，植物油又能有多强的下行驱动呢？一旦北美大豆炒作开启，或可再生柴油产能扩张带来的需求驱动发力，植物油价格可能又将重拾涨势，只是领头羊可能转换成豆油。

https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/roll/2022-03-14/doc-imcwipih8436696.shtml
China situation

当前棕油国内库存已经连续四周去库，在近五年最低水平。在消息端，印尼的出口政策及生物柴油政策的调整将成为市场最大的不确定性，印尼作为全球最大出口国，其政策的调整将直接影响全球棕油供给。在当前来看，由于印尼油脂消费价格同样紧张且原油等能源价格的压力，化肥价格等种植成本不断上涨导致了印尼本国通胀压力较大，更改政策可能性较低，国际棕榈油价格可能短期难有大幅下跌的可能。

对于国内的豆油端，当前来看，国内豆油在全球报价来看都属于偏低水平，对于消费来说，很多消费都由豆油取代，但考虑到在我国棕油及豆油的消费重叠度相对较低，部分刚性需求依旧无法用豆油满足，当下的国储不断在轮出食用油，也将在短期缓解市场的供给压力，但对于远月来说，豆油的超高性价比及未来美豆进口成本的持续高企可能会令其价格表现更为强势。

typical koon yew yin charateristic who likes to disclose his trade.

try track back MPOB prediction in past 3 years, see how accurate are they.
I remember when its down cycle, they claim price will go up.

isnt it a monthly pattern that price of CPO will retreat around second week ?

Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger on Risk and Volatility
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bczBRPuBLto

its interesting to see when a business' product avg selling price and profit goes up, and yet shareholders sell off their share of business cheaper. :)

seed oil growth and harvest is way faster than Palm oil, provided the farmer doesn't miss the timing.
its faster and easier to set up a roadside stall than a proper restaurant, but at a mercy of weather.

Crop conditions are suffering in Argentina. According to the Buenos Aires Exchange report that updated March 3, good-to-excellent ratings were a scant 25% for soybeans and 21% for corn. Ratings have been below 40% for both crops since mid-January, despite some decent showers that occurred in late January.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/south-america-calling/blog-post/2022/03/03/break-la-nina-dryness-argentina

Just my opinion. Unlike palm oil, if farmer are planting soy and corn alternately, any weather disturbance that delay planting and weather will affect their harvest and quality, which also affect the next cycle, hence palm oil offer more predictable output (if there's no labour shortage). Also Palm tree took 3+ years to grow before harvest, tree will develop higher immunity towards weather compare to soy and corn.