Mr OTB, TQ for your insight.

Mr OTB, Thank you for the analysis.
If it fail to break 5.44 in the next 10 trading days, technically, does that mean it will be in a down trend for much longer? According to TA ?? TQ

super good Qtr results anticipated

@freedomfund, thank you for your "balanced view".
My simple calculation of YTLP fair value is to assigned a PE of 15 to the est EPS of 40sen for the FY June 2024. That give me a fair value of RM6. For FY 2025 and 2026 , you will have income from DC as well. The income may not be able to assess with certainty but it will be surprise on the upside and possible hugh.
I would go along with dragon328 analysis that the upside is still hugh. YTLP at RM5 now is by no means overvalued.

Every stock has its day. Insas could be next.

I was thinking of taking profit after the qtr results is out, but now you have a research house calling RM7.30 even without waiting for the qtr result. Perhaps I should hang on.

@OTB "I am just sharing my knowledge here, I am not promoting Yinson here.
I own zero share of Yinson."

Mr OTB, you sold all your Yinson? News to me. I thought you might keep until 2026 to reap hugh returns.

If all goes well, the negative free cash flow could turn positive free cash flow in 2026.
Yinson is like a company making hugh profit but has no money. sad.

When most of the counters in Bursa are bullish now, you have the funny feeling that Yinson is going to be listless for the rest of the year. The chart has been shitty for a long time. Wait and wait and wait. Perhaps a few more qtrs of good result might change people's perception.

When a sifu is promoting a stock for 2 years and yet claim only to have a small holding, I find it does not jive. Nothing wrong to say that one has a large holding in yinson and waiting patiently for it to take off.

Perhaps the investors perceived Yinson as a high risk stock even if it is trading at a very low PE. Even its sukuk has to be done at such a hugh premium. Potential investors might want to wait a few more qtr to be sure to put their money in.

Israel will very likely attack Iran in the coming days / weeks. Their armed forces chief vowed so. Do we sell today following a rebound or hold for a while ? Its anyone guess whether it will fall further.
However the moment Israel strike Iran, the market will probably take another hit as well.
Perhaps it make sense to take profit by reducing half my holding and keep the balance for another 6 months.

How to go up when only EPF is doing trading? TA also bad. Opportunities lost with capital park here.
Perhaps better to cut now and come back when the TA improve ??

Why are people so hung up about the daily price movement of YTLP ? Perhaps must be the day traders? If you go for the fundamentals of this gem, come back in 6 - 9 months and you will be smiling from cheek to cheek. no?

@ OTB, Tq for your explanation.
Assuming you use EBITDA margin of 50%, you PAT figure cannot be just 'PAT = RM 2.335 billion (Assume 28% tax)" n Here you are treating the interests, depreciation / amortisation as zero ? can't be right? am I wrong? TQ

@OTB, Tq for your calculation.
May I know on what basis you assume EDITDA margin of 50% ?just a wild guess? TQ

@dragon328, TQ.

@dragon328
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"Mr. OTB, I need to qualify my following projection that I am not an IT or AI expert but carry out the calculations just from the standpoint of a financial analyst.

I will use the projected capex for the YTL Power's planned 100MW AI data centre project to estimate the number of Nvidia GPUs required. Using the estimated capex figure of US$3.0 billion from CIMB analyst and the announced RM20 billion investment figure from PMX, and taking the expected price tag of US$40,000-45,000 per B200 GPU, I estimate that the 100MW AI data centre will require about:
US$3.0bn/US$40-45k = 70,000 GPUs to
RM20bn/US$40-45k = 100,000 GPUs

If I use CIMB analyst's figure for GPU rental rate of US$2.50/hour (CoreWeave averaged at US$2.23/hr, Lambda at US$2.49/hr and Fluidstack at US$2.89/hr), and assuming 90% usage rate, the 100MW AI data centre with 70,000 GPUs may generate revenue of:

70,000 x US$2.50/hr x 8760 x 90% = US$1.38 billion a year
=========================================================================

I assume that Your estimated Revenue of US$1.38 Billion a year will be fully reflected in FY 30.6.2026?
Are you able to guesstimate the PAT from the US1.38 billion revenue for FY2026?
TQVM

@OTB, Your portfolio in Yinson is a small one? I thought Yinson is your No.1 stock in 2023? Meaning you have reduced your shareholdings in Yinson ?

Evil Statement? hardly. Know your risk profile when investing. Want zero risk? put all in FD.
Want calculated risk ? YTLP. Today [ 22.3.2024] price RM3.90 . My 12 months TP RM6. ; 24 months TP RM7.50
Too far fetch? Dont buy. No one force you to buy. Look before you leap, think before you buy !

“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those timid spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.”

Looks like one should invest 100% in this counter?

@Permutation, I am not sure if the technical chart reading on YTLP given to you was indeed from iCap Tan Teng Boo. Recently there have been lots of scam groups pretending to be the investment gurus such as Tan Teng Boo, Cold Eye or Koon YY, advertising online to get people into their chat group by sharing fake investment advice. Just beware.
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@Dragon328, You are probably right.
OTB an expert in charting has a different take on it from his post.

Thank You OTB.

@OTB,
I would be happy if your TA readings is correct.
However I am rather confused when a friend show me Icapital [ Tan Teng Boo] chart on YTL Power dated 15.3.2024
It stated that YTL power bull run has ended. It is marked by the formation of a triple top reversal pattern. Its daily DMI has shape a bearish cross over. Its daily MACD is bearish. Is he talking about different thing??

@dragon328, Thank you

@Dragon328,
Is it realistic to project the EPS for FY 30.6.2025 to be about 50sen?

TA expert said the triple top reversal pattern has formed, what ever that means? is it right? does that means the correction has a long way to go?

There are people relying on honest analysis here to invest. People telling lies here will get bad karma.

Low PE of bout 5 times, deliver healthy profit for past 6 years, high NTA of around RM3.50. Low paid up. very easy to push?

Mr OTB ,
The loans for the FPSO projects will still belong to Yinson even after they find oil. Am I right?
Even though the revenue received from charter service is utilised to service the loan; Ultimately Yinson is still responsible to pay the loan ?

Mr OTB, Thank you. I agree good fundamental stock will shine eventually. Even YTLP was hovering at 70 sen for a while until the fund managers wake up.

Mr OTB, would you recommend a buy on Yinson now ? Does it meet your investment criteria ?

The TA of Yinson is very bad now, am I wrong?

I thought many would have cut loss long ago and abandoned JAK and never to come back again. Surprise the forum is still alive and kicking.

The qtr result is due out before end of March. The market is anticipating a bad set of result??

@dragon328, Thank you for your analysis. Appreciated.

@Dragon328,
Genting or Genting Malaysia ? What is your take? tq

@dragon328, why would foreign funds not keen on FPSO companies like Yinson? Good EPS, consistent earnings, ----but hugh debt ? high risk?

Perhaps you will be better off holding on to the WB than convert to get the divi.

OTB
Hush77,
Yes. I remember the old story.
I bought WTK (Old name Samanda) around 2.00 and sold at 18.00 when Joseph Chong is pushing this stock.
Thank you.

=========================================================================

i am happy for the gurus who manage to spot counters at RM2 and then sold at RM18.00. Good for you.
I am more interested to hear from gurus who screw up big time and lost their pants on one wrong stock. If only they are willing to share so that I can learn from their mistakes. tq

WB is still trading at a discount. Perhaps not for long.

Kenanga up TP to RM3.40 [ from RM3.28 ]. Not a lot but good enough.

Kenanga TP of RM3.28 is very reasonable indeed. Perhaps they may revise upwards tomorrow.

Avoid loss making counter? I believe so.

yes, finally the results is out. Good Quarter. On track for RM3.28

TTB has been bearish on Bursa for years, hopefully his U turn now becomes reality

Perhaps Yinson should be compared with Armada?

KGB is moving up slowly but surely, two steps up one step down is normal to catch its breath.

Well said @dragon328, as long as the project give good returns ,YTLP will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Why are there more sellers queueing to sell KGB and also WB ? Yet the price keep inching up slowly instead of dropping?
My take is there are insiders/ analysts/investors who know/ believe the qtr results will be fantastic and therefore buying slowly and able to absorb the selling pressure well. After all they still have a few more days to accumulate before the results are out. Perhaps needs to take a cue from MPI ? ie. buy before the result is out ?? yes!

For WB to cross RM1 is a piece of cake. Now focus on RM1.10

Soon WB will be trading at a premium instead of discount. Time will tell.