Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

the article was posted to explain this as i understand from a person with background in acc & finance (i am not)

ADDITIONAL EXPLANATION BY PROBABILITY:

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist indefinitely till all hedging contract matures (more than 24 months).

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

Out of the above a portion (which matures in 12 months) will go into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' reported as Cost of hedging reserve.

thanks for the below comment

Posted by PSAi3alert > Sep 3, 2022 4:32 PM | Report Abuse

probability,

I have to admit that I'm least confident in putting HY in the "Fat 'Kap Nar' running in the street" list.

COHR gain of 390 million from loss of 1.1 billion will cause the NTA to jump by RM5 and if you add that to EPS of RM2, you get RM 7

that means by end of Q3, NTA is above RM12...WTF!

COHR gain of 390 million from loss of 1.1 billion will cause the NTA to jump by RM5 and if you add that to EPS of RM2, you get RM 7

that means by end of Q3, NTA is above RM12...WTF!

@PSAi3alert, i had some respect on you earlier when you tried to expose Serba. But unfortunately, over confidence can make one blind to rationality...

suggest you spend some time going through the derivations, annual report on their refining margin swap, and understand how cost of hedging reserve works before commenting

HY is not the only refinery in the world that reported huge earnings.

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to ZERO (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 0) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 228 million USD or gain of MYR 1,000,005,000

GAIN of 1 BILLION on Cost of hedging reserve in Q2

But those who understand the above, they know it does not matter and that for gasoline their earnings is always going to be at 12.7 USD/brl.....

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to ZERO (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 0) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 228 million USD or gain of MYR 1,000,005,000

GAIN of 1 BILLION on Cost of hedging reserve in Q2

But those who understand the above, they know it does not matter and that for gasoline their earnings is always going to be at 12.7 USD/brl.....

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

ADDITIONAL EXPLANATION BY PROBABILITY:

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist indefinitely till all hedging contract matures (more than 24 months).

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

Out of the above a portion (which matures in 12 months) will go into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' reported as Cost of hedging reserve.

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to ZERO (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 0) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 228 million USD or gain of MYR 1,000,005

GAIN of 1 BILLION on Cost of hedging reserve in Q2

But those who understand the above, they know it does not matter and that for gasoline their earnings is always going to be at 12.7 USD/brl.....

they forward hedge up to 2 years plus of this amount...

@Bob, they hedge at about 18% of their monthly throughput...

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................

i am afraid not possible Zhuge

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Ahahah > 11 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@probabilty my English is not good. That is what I try to explain in this morning but rejected by this 3i members.
Beside that they are using petrol to blend with diesel and selling as diesel at good price.
----------------
@probability,
Can gasoline blend with diesel and sell it as diesel after some rework ?
If it is feasible, then it is a good news to Hengyuan.
Please advise.

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 4.5 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

ADDITIONAL EXPLANATION BY PROBABILITY:

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist for the next 12 months.

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

Out of the above a portion will go into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' reported as Cost of hedging reserve.

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 4.5 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 4.5 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

ADDITIONAL EXPLANATION BY PROBABILITY:

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist for the next 12 months.

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

Out of the above a portion will go into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' reported as Cost of hedging reserve.

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 12 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.

This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist for the next 12 months.

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

Out of the above a portion will go into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' reported as Cost of hedging reserve.

...

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 4.5 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.


As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

Charlest, Stockraider, spent some time to understand what the articles shows. No one is trying to plug figures from the air...

LOL!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 12:22 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3 fxxk you.
Another shameless liar.
Continue to tell lies after lies.
No wonder you are beaten by a gang in Bangsar because of your bad mouth.
You are cursed and the gang should beat you to death.
You are an useless dead wood in this world.
No value at all.

well said Zhuge..

this people like raider is the root cause many valuable people like Rabbit2 dont come to i3 often

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 12:13 AM | Report Abuse

Rabbit2 is a qualified accountant.
He has the experience to audit a refinery company.
He knows hedging rules well.
Unlike an office boy, continue to tell lies here.
This office boy lost a lot of money on Hengyuan in 2017 until he hid himself at Pudu market.
Bullshit and twist the story to suit him.
Real shameless.

Just saw your reply Rabbit2, you are the man..amazing!

THANK YOU SO MUCH...

Posted by Rabbit2 > Sep 2, 2022 10:47 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability, I could be wrong as I'm still learning

no need cheap oil, as long refinery shortage, operating refinery can hike up margin..

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

no worries, we share our opinions...thats the purpose of i3...keep learning and have an open mind

yes tehka, and at current zero gasoline crack spread assuming the others Diesel & Jet Fuel crack is maintained, Q4 EPS will be 2.84....

Estimation of Q2 gross profit earlier:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp

@goh, not really promoting...studying only.... at this cheap share price and dividend given by management - you still think 'promotion'...sad :(

The above shows even with zero crack spread of gasoline, HY will deliver EPS above RM for Q3 and Q4 with current margin of Diesel & Jet Fuel....

Hope i3 investors Crack their head on the above over the weekend! Enjoy....

HENGYUAN - How to calculate its refinery margin? & Why share price hesitating to move up despite Q2 EPS of RM 2.2?

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-09-02-story-h1627801128-HENGYUAN_How_to_calculate_its_refinery_margin_Why_share_price_hesitatin.jsp

HENGYUAN - How to calculate its refinery margin? & Why share price hesitating to move up despite Q2 EPS of RM 2.2?

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-09-02-story-h1627801128-HENGYUAN_How_to_calculate_its_refinery_margin_Why_share_price_hesitatin.jsp

@Rabbit2 & @Sslee, hope you dont me quoting your salient comments here in HY forum earlier.

The more investor learn about hedging the better their appreciation of HY & PetronM.

Remember however that the above is assuming ZERO crack of gasoline for July & Aug which had passed, with only another month left for Q3 results to be secured. So it can't be far out from above.

It would be reflective of Q4 you can say at current margin.

HY Complex refinery margin update - 1/09/22 (with gasoline at almost zero crack)

.................


Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 46.5/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 36.0/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (0.79 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 4.50/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 46.5 ) + (0.07 x 36.0) + (0.35 x 4.5)+ (0.12 x 4.5)
= 21.39 + 2.52 + 1.57 + 0.54
= US $ 26.02 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $26.0/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.238 Billion MYR
...................

If there is still derivative loss for Diesel above, we can expect derivative gain for Gasoline. It would be certainly fair to assume that it can only be gain (as HY hedged at USD 12/brl for gasoline) and at the minimum it would be fair to assume zero hedging loss/gain.

Using worst scenario,

the PBT would be:
= 1.138 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 853 Million MYR, EPS = 2.84 for Q3
..................


accounting cash flow hedge loss of Q2 at 244 million

the PBT would be:
= 894 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 670 Million MYR, EPS = 2.23 for Q3 ( still exceeding Q2)
...................

good candidate for privatization, with NTA hitting above 10 by Q3, even if they takeover - MTO offer price will be high if they do that!

Posted by tehka > Sep 2, 2022 7:18 PM | Report Abuse

Omg q3 eps = 2.23 + q2 eps = 2++ wow.. pe 15 = ?? wow..mind is blown .. cannot imagine

@Bob, FYI below on how crack from futures affect refinery margin:

www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/introduction-to-crack-spreads.html

In January, Refiner sells the 1:1 Gasoline Crack Spread Futures contract at $17.20:

Sells 1 May RBOB gasoline futures contract at $1.60 per gallon ($67.20 per barrel) Buys 1 April CL futures contract at $50.00 per barrel
Locks in the crack spread at $17.20 per barrel

In the Cash Market in March, Refiner sells the Gasoline Crack Spread at $13.50:

Sells 1000 barrels of physical gasoline at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel) Buys 1000 barrels of physical crude oil at $60.00 per barrel
Receives a positive cracking margin of $13.50 per barrel

In March, Refiner buys back (liquidates) the 1:1 Gasoline Crack Spread Futures contract at $13.50 per barrel:

Buys 1 May RBOB gasoline futures contract at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel) Sells 1 April CL futures contract at $60.00 per barrel
Futures gain of $3.70 per barrel (which can be applied to the cash market cracking margin)

Profit/Loss calculation:

Hedged crack spread = $17.20 per barrel
Un-hedged cash market cracking margin = $13.50

yes, we assume almost zero only for gasoline . check the details of derivation above

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 2, 2022 7:05 PM | Report Abuse

ZERO crack?,....isn't the crack spread where Refineries derived their margins from???

The 244 million losses from Cash flow hedge in Q2 is expected to be recognized somehow as per Rabbit2, as such i am recognizing it in Q3 to reflect worst scenario.

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 2, 2022 7:02 PM | Report Abuse

Really blow my mind...on one hand you're saying the hedging would have assumed zero losses.
On the other you are have input of millions in hedging cash losses???

Remember however that the above is assuming ZERO crack of gasoline for July & Aug which had passed, with only another month left for Q3 results to be secured. So it can't be far out from above.

It would be reflective of Q4 you can say at current margin.

HY Complex refinery margin update - 1/09/22 (with gasoline at almost zero crack)

.................


Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 46.5/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 36.0/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (0.79 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 4.50/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 46.5 ) + (0.07 x 36.0) + (0.35 x 4.5)+ (0.12 x 4.5)
= 21.39 + 2.52 + 1.57 + 0.54
= US $ 26.02 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $26.0/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.238 Billion MYR
...................

If there is still derivative loss for Diesel above, we can expect derivative gain for Gasoline. It would be certainly fair to assume that it can only be gain (as HY hedged at USD 12/brl for gasoline) and at the minimum it would be fair to assume zero hedging loss/gain.

Using worst scenario,

the PBT would be:
= 1.138 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 853 Million MYR, EPS = 2.84 for Q3
..................


accounting cash flow hedge loss of Q2 at 244 million

the PBT would be:
= 894 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 670 Million MYR, EPS = 2.23 for Q3 ( still exceeding Q2)
...................

even at 80% they wont increase further coz who is going to buy their gasoline? unless they got do hedging like HY

Posted by MoneyMakers > Sep 2, 2022 3:07 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo probability/sslee ofcos refineries can increase diesel output (subsequently crack spread collapse)

Think global refinery utilisation/run rate @ 100% meh aiyoyo

@MM, basically what sslee is saying is you cannot increase diesel output more than current level without increasing gasoline output which explains why the margin-crack has gone low for gasoline

EU refiners - simple type, who mainly produce gasoline & fuel oil at low margin will lose incentive to refine further

basically there is no solution to the Diesel shortage unless Russian diesel is allowed to export

based on below hedging figures itself - using the lowest margin for gasoline of 12.665 USD/brl

Gross profit after all hedging losses, minimum possible:

= 10.7 million sales/qtr x 12.67 USD/brl x 4.48 MYR/USD
= 607 million

PBT minimum = 500 million
PAT = 375 million

EPS = RM 1.25 for Q3


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718