Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

We will need to see if it's TEAP or TEBP as PDS is not clearly stated yet!

I suggest Eric Chan to reiterate the fixed 2.90 exercise price for warrant again and get the whole news flowing and not leave too long.

As I mention, I do not know what is the run up price before ex bonus however most cases the ex bonus is higher than the TEBP. Your 3.02 is higher than TEBP. The example of 3.5 is only illustration and we never know what will happen on run up. Suffice to say it will be higher than TEBP for now.
As for the other one on VWAP avg, it is possible the example given by the business coverage of 2.854 up to Sept 4 can be used because it's stated in most practices that VWAP price can be capture before ex date but I doubt you can use logically results longer than one quarter before the approval as fundamentally results are reported quarterly.

In most cases, the TEBP/VWAP which is the base of most calculation prior to the exercise is normally lower than the actual ex bonus price itself. Example if the TEBP(theoretical ex bonus price) is 2.854, this price is the indication of ex bonus however the real situation will depend on the run up to the day before the bonus ex date. If the run up is 3.5 on eve of bonus ex, the bonus ex day will be 3.18 base on 1 for 10. Note this is just an example as no one knows what the run up price will be. If the TEBP is approx what that have been slated, base of 1 for 5 warrant it should be around 47.5cents.
Do your own math and find the range base on the example I have given. Once you got that range, only then put in you bets as all of us bought at different price and have diff exposure.

Good luck!

Upon EGM next week 28 Nov, by which the proposal of PDS, warrant and bonus should be approve by shareholders, it should be viewed as money in pocket for both investors and EnO & staff while awaiting the last piece of approval ie the DEIA final guideline. This guideline will be used in the tender and the award of the tender shall be weighted on it. This approval is part of the stringent accountability taken up by the penang Goverment to protect the shoreline and Eco enviroment that may arise due to the reclaim activity of coming stp2. The penang govt has earlier approved the project however subjected to this coming guideline of Deia being followed stringently.
So view this as good planning by EnO, if all the money is secured prior to the funding required for stp2. The tendering should be soon and award should b by Jan or Feb 2015.
I understand they want to fix the exercise price of warrant at rm2.90. This makes perfect sense becoz the recent buyback of 9.94% block fr Sime was at rm2.90 also. This mean everything will be weighted on the TEBC or VWAP price to calculate the premium since conversion is fixed. The premium must ensure the price looks attractive. To be attractive, the premium % must be as small as positive if in +ve region while premium in negative will raise the attractiveness of the warrant.

Even though EnO gave a fixed warrant exercise price at 2.90, many still unsure. Rightfully they should b unsure and EnO must give more direction ASAP. Ppl are unsure becoz talk is cheap however in my opinion EnO under Terry has never let down or contradict their own statement but this one came fr Eric.

Any game now is for collectors n not speculators

I must commend the calculation done earlier n this one. The focus here is the TEBC OR VWAP. Normally TEBC is lower than the actual diluted price due to bonus on ex-day, Since you brought up Fitters, I did a check on Fitters owing to the VWAP done the 5 days after EGM. For those who do not understand VWAP have a read on this one. To achieve the VWAP to favor is difficult as it requires volume and price. If any syndicate push to early, they will lose the volume when it matters most ie during the 5 days.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:vwap_intraday

Again I wish to warn all who are not in this game or not familiar with EnO, not to play.

If you did not see IBM not meeting their forecast and having to throw it out their target for 2014, then you must have missed the part that they were selling some of their products to Lenovo, the more notable one is the X Series and if you miss the BOJ stimulus and you also missed the fact that Japan did not meet first of the earlier quarter GDP, and you are surprise again at Japan being in recession, then you should be short term trader and not an investor.

For the hard core fans of E&O.


http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dSF6K069GtU

Third marriage done ..

All set for EGM 28 Nov next week....

There should be a third marriage....bloody polygamist..

Second marriage...500k

One Marriage today at 500k...

Two things highlighted this morning
1. Property price will go up temporary when GST implemented
2. Japan slips into surprising recession

I think whoever wrote this piece on property and gst must be sleeping. The prices of things in anticipation of GST is already rising prior to implementation. What this means is when GST is implemented, it's only formality because everything is sky high by then. The few very key governance fr our incumbent govt ie OPR and fuel in rising. One pertaining everyday loan and the other pertaining everyday operation operation & transports. When the later is affected, everything rises while business taking loans have to serve a heavier baggage
On the other hand, Japan falling into recession, is not as surprising as said. Why? No 1 recession is a consecutive 2 quarter failure to meet gdp. So they have earlier known that Japan already failed first quarter right? Secondly the hint was from the stimulus injected recently by BOJ. What is surprising though is how did they fail when Japan being a tight knitted economy. Talk to any Japanese and they will tell you they alway support japanese good whether in Japan or outside. My guess is the gdp target setting was way off similar to some of those set by businesses like IBM of late. I really don't see reason to panic however I do see reason to assimilate in fundamental.

What this means is business complexity is at the most sensitive level at the moment because changing a small area my trigger a large wave. For example, if my revenue has already been exhausted and saturated, anything new that I introduce my be significant provided efficiency in the workforce contribution increases. We know japs are hard working and efficient nation & people and I believe their businesses have saturated hence this leaves only the new business that they must endevour to ensure maintenance

I have written many pieces on this before that housing and property prices will not be coming down anytime soon. For those who remember the reason, this will be compounded by the fact that inflation in general in all around and the richer countries will dominate in property buying. We know Japanese have very strong influence and presence on the island even way back in the 90s.
We have said many times that everything in Malysia is expensive from car to property to stock market and so on. However we are indeed expensive even taking away referencing to our per capita income. In this region, we charge for many thing which can be taken as per item charges which added is significant. Example for cars, we have import tax, excise, and on top of that we have tiered road tax which is inclination base on CC. In addition to car maintenance cost, we have petrol price which top the region and top the price of oil producing country. With the subsidy on the way out, GST coming (which will affect the property side), we can expect transportation to skyrocket. When this happens, we will have another at country level inflation added.
What can you expect to happen?
As oil & gas and transportation is the base to everything, from transportation to logistics to energy production and factory operation....can you imagine how it will affect each sector in cost? I am expecting another 20%. Yes 20% inflated to the current price with 5% added at each tiew of supply chain and minimum 4 levels. Have a though

http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2014/11/13/housing-woes-penang-penangites/

Good luck

If EnO sub the first land deal out to secondary contractor and Property developer to initiate the first valuation to kick start STP2, as I said before, they will go with a Private placement second to steamroll the financial with this long 20 year forecast

Will be interesting tomorrow! One more step in! Imagine everything ready and LGE better speed up. What business have planning with all in place and awaiting for a certain approval? 3/4 Money planning ready, GK ready, EPF ready AMMB ready, RHB err should be ready.....Public Bank err forget them for the time being.
Engine started, turbo check, track 3/4 cleared, nitrogen added, first 5 years 350 big ones ready to roll, short term start up with appetizer to include Bonus and warrant to get the andrenalin pumping followed by the initial steroids to bulk up within first 5 years. It won't be Lee Chong Wei foul up but would be Muhammad Ali in prime lasting 20 rounds.

With MTN PDS in place followed by bonus coming, I believe E&O will have a final trump card using Private Place for the balance. All these method are key as the build partnership rather than taking loans as the foreseeable future is not encouraging.

After reading some of the comments by those who oppose him, I came to realise not all are wrong or incorrect. While i3 chose not to understand some who are real in their facts to oppose him, he has become audacious and bold in his remarks.
I am choosing not to name him here at this point because I chose my rights to teach this individual of what he did to other when my chance is available.

It is highly irresponsible of some senior members here in promoting warrants and rights until they are above the mother share after conversion price. This same person has done it a few time despite the fact a few occasion the counter subsequently dropped. When a warrant or right is above the mother, your chances dropped significantly. If your chances used to be 50/50 it's now 30/70 70% to the market and 30% chance to you.
While many think highly of him, my opinion of him is truly low and I have no respect whatsoever for this individual. So trade with caution and if you do not understand the risk, use you logic and wisdom or not trade at all and NOT take advice from this joker. It is obvious he is doing this for his own keeps and those who paid him.

I am excited about tomorrow because it's been a long time since stars align. Star align here refer to good news in and bad news sunken in. So here, correction has sunken in deep the last two weeks while QE Removal has been debated with many corrections entered into its figures while BOJ expanding its stimulus was certainly surprising.
What I am expecting to happen tomorrow is a responsive property sector behavior toward the KLCI. It will wait for the KLCI to move and they will move in tandem and similarly reversal in the buying pattern. You will more commit at every sustainable resistance it overcomes.
The rationale is this, where is this stimulus money channeled and what is it channelled to? Now if you are commodity, most cannot be played at this point...namely oil, CPO. If you consider the statement by Petronas to abdicate some of the planned projects due to the falling price & dropping unfeasible contract , while in CPO is only expected to recover in mid 2015 or anywhere nearer to that date. REMEMBER, free money or free interest loans are the best money in this globalise world because these money can work longer and harder for the investors and traders alike. Moreover the timing is beautiful for one run towards the financial result and to release just before the results are out or maybe even till December window dressing.

The other thing I like about this is, the heavy presence of Japanese investors in Penang for sometime now. I believe Penang is attractive to them as it serves as a holiday venue, a business oppotunity, a growth opportunity especially in Batu Kawan side while the heritage sites and greenery serves the other purpose. In addition, the Penang Govt under DAP gives better direction and indication of the moving forward and perceived with lesser corruption or maybe not. Again I will bet bigger on Penang than Iskandar at this point as Northern opportunity is more conducive for business and quality of living than their counterpart in Iskander filled with theme parks and 8 years of waiting and dicing.

I have always ask ppl to look beyond a particular counter in first evaluation, then followed by sector and then only the counter. I have written a few comments on this, on property before GST! The article below illustrates some of the key points however we have to ensure also global climate especially on inflation is thrown into the equation. Everything in our life has a saturation point and an optimum point. The difference is knowing your own economy and truthful to yourself. Example BOJ added stimulus while Fed is taking away QE. In my point of view, Japan has good leadership here and not just following one global source in making their decision but believing it will give a better leap frog forward.
As I also believe, the world market is split into 4,namely the US, EU, UK and Rest of the world. I did not name Asia or Australia for this region simply because it is loosely coupled with no real effort to forge a closer economic ties while China loosely benefit some of the Asian countries. With this stimulus added into the global economy with inflation thrown in, we can expect some money to flow in this way.
What will it do? If for those who remember the 0 interest in Japan a couple of years back which brought a positive note in Asia and similarly when they pulled back, the perverse reaction took place. It will be the same again.......

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/11/01/Property-conundrum-Seminar-raises-more-questions-about-the-state-of-sector/?style=biz

For those who are not in the know, each time the MRT route is announce there is an auto revaluation of the Landbank or location where the landing will be. As we know Sime has applied for Mrt to City of Elmina. While this is only anticipation of approval, there is also a report that property prices In Malaysia currently continues to escalate. When you add anticipation + fact of the price increase, you will get a situation whereby the govt needs to think of how to moderate the loans in other ways rather than suppressing them to prevent NPL.
I have said this many times that in a global inflation, nothing much can be done to suppress prices unless they produce sub quality end product

So in short, tomorrow if the market responds again, be ready to pick your stock and practice ur avging to get ahead.

When tomorrow come!......

Firstly for all those who are worried about tomorrow, the situation is this
1. QE to be remove
2. Weaker U.S. dollar expects to suppressed oil price
3. Greece zero in again - ppls will be unsure of this effect because it is couple with 1 and 2

The rest on Q3 GDP growth in US can be read from all business website.

Now the point highlighted here is not really 1 or 2 because Removal of QE has been in the talks for a while and real concern is upping interest rate. If they up interest rate, there will be a reshuffle of market just like the example I wrote earlier of realign my stocks during the Oct downturn. However upping the interest rate maybe TOO EARLY because they cannot assume a Quarter result performance to up interest rates since they are already removing the QE. It may spell DOUBLE JEAPORDY.
What I assume will be likely to happen is upping the interest rates may take another quarter result while they proceed with the QE removal.
The market is weary of the ICBC situation currently while at the same time concern about Greece again. Note each is on a different continent. Imagine this ICBC will affiliate bad loans that may affect the countries where Chinese are given loan on project while the Greece situation is known on the EUrope front with a general inflation globally , what do you think will happen if they raise interest rates of one of the 3 economic power ie US. It will be disasterous.

So have a thought, because my opinion is interest rates will NOT be raise a not at such a vital time when they are removing QE.

Market is difficult animal to tame. For instance, the recent respond of the market on global issues which was long accepted however the market responded hugely negative! Why? Always remember the market is Malaysia is one which will find reasons to consolidate and to perform correction even though sometimes situation may not warrant. This is partially because the coincide a correction to a long bull run or the market perceive the run has been halted too long and the only way is to perform correction before further uptrend. A good point would be that the market did not respond to the ECB bank stress test after this recent major correction.

So the question is really whether the market will do a real year end closing in style? October hasn't been overwhelming however it is to be expected and Novemebrr in my opinion should pick up and end 2014 with a fireworks blast!! What say you?

Good Luck and God bless!!

Took a bit of time to realign all my holdings as some have peaked while others have dropped a significant % in recent market anticipation and consolidation and exacerbate by the QE ceasing. EnO was one of them that dropper from 2.9x to 2.3x a whopping 60cents. In % that would mean almost 20% while some of my other holdings sustained quite well eg Axiata.
To most,mth is is the time to throw however for most investors myself included, this is the time to swap shares.
How? My shares are divided by ratio. Example Axiata to EnO ratio is 2.5. That means that if the ratio increases significantly EnO would to me be a very very good swap from Axiata and similarly other stocks like Huayang to L&G in the same manner. However stock that this is to be play must have true potential of catalyst or growth.

When a share is swap, you have to be very certain the % will be higher than the swapped share. Example if share X is 50cents and share Y is rm1 and the ratio is 2 to 1 right? And if share Y drops to say 80censt ie 20% drop that ratio would have a large impact assuming share X sustained. Hence if such is the case the share that is swapped must have the potential to grow 2 times that of the former. Example if share X after the share swap incline 10cents, share Y that you have swap to, must incline 20cents or more.

So this execise has helped me to move stagnant shares and limit my holding to lesser and focus more on moving ones. So far my inclination on recovery has been encouraging at 15%. The next question however is whether this would sustain and we should play. For me a 25% gain is a must to release/sell unless it's those counter that I have already hold more than 100% gain. As I mentioned earlier, I am expecting November financial report, and December window dressing to come into play although many are against it as the QE question and Fed rationale is still looming and begging for an answer. Again play it to the % you have targeted and keep taking profit as this is the best time once those criteria have been met