SaturnY

SaturnY | Joined since 2014-03-26

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2014-07-20 18:04 | Report Abuse

Lol...let's not think just TA......I would like to go against the tide tomorrow. Who's with me??

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2014-07-20 00:50 | Report Abuse

Wow I am overwhelm with MH17 news. It's certainly a sad day losing family members and friends. I cannot even begin to phantom and do not want to go into it. All I would like to do is offer my condolences and heartfelt sadness of this heart breaking news. Imagine for some the world is no longer real and some it has becomes like a movie becoming reality. I sincerely pray this would all end and bring some solace to them.

Coming Monday will no doubt be a challenge. Doubts, fear and recognizing the market will react further will cause much jittery amongst investors. You and I have 2 choices
1) Pull out from the market
2) keep undervalued stock. After all I did say undervalued stocks are the safers for this times if you decide to keep.

I won't make the decision for you because there are many short ripples about to happen. These ripples will stop some counters while it decline others. No doubt the undervalued I feel will weather the storm better because let's face it how much further down can it get. If it does get further down by a large margin, the market indeed will crash. Example of extreme cases is 15 - 20% down for an undervalued stock.

Tell me how do you feel about these cases and which you think is worst
1) finacial crisis with an overtone of failed sector - eg. Oil prices shoot beyond the roof and is no longer affordable on top of the inflation in other areas - normally sector however will affect related industries
2) finacial crisis - Recession - failed GDP in 2 succecive quarters
3) Financial jitters - due to pullback of interest rate
4) Financial crisis due to Forex loses by individual country
5) Financial crisis - Continent/Region Crisis - Eg EU with Greece as seen before, Feds policies,.....
6) War/threats of war eg. Ukraine war

Now remember I said, we are at the period after CRISIS where we are picking up however we have not reach BOOM period? Investopedia says recession generally last 6 to 18 mths hence in general between 2009 to 2013 we have gone thru all 1- 6 with most countries recovered of recession in 2012/13. While we are clear of 1 - 6 we also know War implication is trade blocks which include oil, related party transaction, delayed delivery of Fulfilment, risk of business activities, .... I believe all of item 1 - 5 has gone to a saturation point which means they have gone thru the crisis, identified the weaknesses and applied on going changes and for some, it has been resolved like those that are measured technically like recession.

So the only thing that can get to the market is no 6 however we already know the effects when Ukraine war was imploding. It did cause a little ripple which lasted a week. As I said, I m not a clairvoyant, and can't tell what will happen when you throw in a spanner into a non existing equation. I can tell what will happen in normal trending so this is what I believe will be the measurement for Monday. A lot of cautious investor taking the look and see . This is what they will be looking out for

1) will it be like the last round of reaction from the imploding Ukraine war? If the signs point to it as the same, Monday afternoon should see the market moving north again because we already know the outcome
2) is it a proxy attack on "xxxxxxxxx"? For those who watch CNN interview with Sarah Barj will know what I m talking about!!

I don't think 1) is an issue but no 2) will be new to the market and investor, trader may not know how to react and the result maybe down south for a period we don't know.
Why? Because we do not know how these proxy war will progress at this point. For example, if you go to a war, you can only win if you know who your enemy is, for you to apply your approach, similarly with sport, as ur strategy depends on your opponent and there is no one method wins all.

Hope I answer you question. So coming Monday, identify whether the player see a solution trend by the start of second half trading. If it's still going side way or down more uncertainty on the line....

Good Luck!

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2014-07-17 14:32 | Report Abuse

Again, I m a writer.....pls pls don't trust me. I just like to write.....

How do you know the time is right?
I have said before times is changing, world is globalize. Yes it's true, it's very true and humans have created many new things and yet human did not create new feeling apart from happy, sad, excited, depress ....in fact human immortalized the feeling with emoticons and expression to denote the same feelings our father, grandfather, great.......have felt but could not create new ones.
Why? That because there are only so much of expression in our life's at whatever generation we live in. However when it comes to those things that has nothing to do with feeling, such as a verb description of a crook ( ie some one crooked) we have many expression such a swindler, conman, manipulator....a person charge with CBT and so on.

What has this to do with the market?
Everything actually. The world have change and even CBT has many category and swindler have many kinds (those who cheat at gambling table, those who cheat on the net, fraudster) however expression of feelings is still limited to the same ones right? If you believe that expression, the same is with global financial. While they have created more areas of finance and accounting is getting more complicate, the fundamental expression of topline and bottomline never change. What they can change is only what is in between ( ie areas of OPEX, financial expense, financial income,....) this means an accounts is still an accounts and creative accounting is only where in between the topline and bottomline the accountant slots in the number.
If the above message is clear, the same I would describe the 80s and esp the 97 financial crisis as the same expression that never change even in the global world. What it means is after a major crisis, the action and reaction will always be the same. In this case M&A.

Your question should be what is next after M&A! You should not ask M&A anymore especially those who bought in to undervalued shares.i gave this prediction months ago and I m not even a clairvoyant . It's a given. If you did you are an investor. Just wait for the BOOM. We are now at the stage after the crisis and BOOM will be soon. My only advice is BOOM will definitely be shorter than CRISIS and picking up again is the best time ie NOW!

Pls note BOOM can happen in depress state. Who ever says that depression is a sign of crisis? No no no......
Those making money like IMF, World Bank, US, China, EU.....are the ones creating this situation ....do they care? They create this by putting complicated financial instruments into the system and dabble at high risk against a collateral.

Tink about what I just said....think beyond....think at BOOM.......

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2014-07-17 12:48 | Report Abuse

When companies buy PD to moderate their revenue and cost, will they choose a cheaper, more valued company (proven growth) with low debts and big potential (more affordable pipeline/Landbank) than otherwise? And then ask yourself, does it mean companies with premium landbanks will die if they do not acquire cheaper lands to be develop but instead forcefully push their premium property?
The answer is Yes and No. Yes they will survive if they have enough foreign marketing to be supported by foreign buyers. No they will not survive if solely base on local buyers. It will be very expensive to develop say a condominium with only 40% take up rate as the developer has to bear 60% on each progressive payment. This will decide this versus having a holding cost and not developing. However if they don't develop, large companies like this have mouth to feed. So how?
Answer is M&A again. When they do M&A, they will give absorb some from the company acquire and do a voluntary separation to manage the cost.


Let's just watch!!!!

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2014-07-17 12:35 | Report Abuse

Why do ppl do M&A? I have written this moons ago however I wanted to add this very fundamental point. Most of other information, pls refer to my earlier write up of M&A

Very very important on M&A during tough times , doing sales and promotion is very expensive and may not guarantee the effort is translated to new sales. Imagine if you want to develop say UOA location in Bangsar south or Tropicana Metropark in Subang, which awe premium land. Can you develop with place with 40% sales?? The reason being eg. In Property development, you may have bought a prime land during peak period or any other period at a premium location but due to holding cost, you develop the land and then comes recession if not inflation. Banks start tightening. Does it mean you should should stop or you should focus on other location? This will increase your holding cost. So companies, conglomerates will OP to buy cheaper Property Developers to moderate their income and their holding cost for the locations they cannot develop due to lack of demand.

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2014-07-17 12:19 | Report Abuse

Fundamental right? When everyone is happy, they are willing (not force) to buy happily and the positive energy goes in and you will see the result.
Today is mid July with all these queued for you to enjoy,
1. cheap price
2. Undervalued
3. Good management - Pipeline of projects, achieved revenue & NP YoY, low debt at 0.04. What they promised since 2008 has been delivered
4. Performance indicator all positive - PE , PB, PC, PS
5. Good maiden dividen against the current share price
6. Good, cash flow, good cash reserve
7. Bonus issue in the pipeline ie within 12 mths
8. Exponential growth
9. Solid focus to growth objective. You can see this by the tight manage, execution and realised financial
10. Multi year Generator with the target 100billion GDV for LB. Once this moves ahead, the MD can channel all new interest to build pipeline above the secured mega project. Remember everyone is complaining property is not affordable in KV Central. This maybe the solution in the mega project where resources can be focus at one location and cost can be lowered in addition to the cheaper Landbank compared to Central.

I believe there is a M&A and to my opinion it may not be Mayland

Again I am not asking anyone to buy.....JUST FEEL GOOD ON MY POINTS ABOVE IS SUFFICIENT!!!!!,

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2014-07-17 11:55 | Report Abuse

No lah...I where know law of attraction.....
All I know is what gets attention gets TLC......same as you and me lah....

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2014-07-17 10:38 | Report Abuse

The changing weather!!!


Ok, we have seen the interest for L&G going up 3 notch yesterday because everyone was focus. As I said, no weather forecast for today.....all your valuable focus were taken out and the ranking in hot trending drop 1 notch to 8position and the price stagnant....

So believe yet?

Now what I want you to do, create the interest you have for this counter again. Focus on the excitement of coming dividen of 2cents and focus on the coming results in August. We did it once without you knowing when I said 3,3,3 remember. Then I did not share what I was doing and anyway all 3 3 3 was achieved and share price for LA did go to 47cents.
So focus on the excitement I mention, and you will be surprise. Pls I m NOT asking you to buy....for those who bought create the excitement, those who didn't imagine that excitement......

See you later..!!!!!!

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2014-07-16 18:54 | Report Abuse

Beautiful!....,no need to say more

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2014-07-16 18:48 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow no weather forecast......

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2014-07-16 18:28 | Report Abuse

Those who followed my L&G World Cup score which was 7-2 with a conversion to 8-1. The conversion of course was due to the 3 announcement which Low Gay Teck did to change to landscape recently. This is very key as it provides investors with milestone to expect. Unlike some counters, L&G under Low Gay Teck has been fulfilling from projects to revenue and bottomline and now market capital of 500 Million. I believe the market cap will be easily be achieved by August or September latest in anticipation of the dividen.
Remember I have ask all of you to focus on L&G to change its rank amongst the hot trending? Well in a way all of you did and same time did not. This morning I believe nobody did anything until I started buying in heavy and suddenly the focus of many investors came to play. Everyone was focusing on breaking 58 or 44cents in the case of LA. The hot trending changed three positions and so did the share price. At one point mother was at 60cents and we get overzealeous who ask whether to sell. Pls!!! When focusing on this type of energy, don't think of otherwise like selling or whether the price will fall.
I chose a time to do this because I believe some desperate sellers have sold their stocks and it minimizes the negative energy. The total volume today surpass the previous trading day.
Pls note L&G has very very poor energy due to its history and this will be changing.

Second I have also asked the MD in my second point of the CONS (ref to my earlier comment if you do not understand which cover a 7-2 score in favor of L&G) to keep the share price steady by minimizing the fluctuation. How? Ppl sell because of lost interest, or lack of information, contra, speculators of rumors, to much liquidity etc.....we know the remedy for each and the MD needs to keep it stable with minimal fluctuation. This will ensure investors are not looking to take profit at every cycle. The investors already know the milestone and what to expect and any good news in between is a bonus and booster to the share.

A very key point to note is market is very very bored with old counters even those reinstated old counters like IOI. The want new new new......just like all of us who always fall prey to marketing of new products like new model of hand phone even if it means throwing away our relatively new phone...we have become accustomed to new ideas. While L&G is an old counter and did change their name once before the performance before 2008 lingers in the mind of senior investors. For those who truly know, Bursa is trying to target the gen Y trader/ investors and recently they had a Bullrun organized even for this. The young generation may not know how old this counter is but they will know that L&G is paying the maiden dividen and bonus is coming. Now who wouldn't be excited......the senior ppl like me....ahem ahem.....believes 6 years to tripling the numbers since 2008 is in no words short of marvelous and superb management. The management of 8-1 score line showed not only they are good at offence (attacking) to deliver the key financial point but equally good in defending the debts by reducing it to a mere 0.04. And now adding in the cosmetics of dividen and bonus, we get a rejuvenated counter which is cheap and functions like a premium counter. Isn't this attractive to old and new buyers?

To reinforce that same understanding to you, check out a new IPO Titijaya instated last year vs an old new counter IOIProp reinstated this year. Who is flying?.........

Hope I have also answered some of the questions you have asked!......chow .......

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2014-07-16 00:49 | Report Abuse

Malaysian shares are so highly speculative compared to US or even Singapore. Look at it this way....malaysian shares have higher mileage if you know when to buy because it moves on rumors, it moves on possible or confirmed dividend, projects, and financial reports whilst here I gotta monitor closer on the development and units calculation.

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2014-07-16 00:45 | Report Abuse

I hope not many compete....Kakakaka...

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2014-07-16 00:34 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow will be collection campaign again. Those not buying, I will sapu. Collection campaign is nice because not many compete.

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2014-07-15 19:59 | Report Abuse

Weather forecast for tomorrow ......

Did you know your sub conscious mind when activated can tell the future? Try the meditation guru's , the hypnotic science, mediums, .....all invoke subconscious for different reasons. However invoking the subconscious mind is not the only way to create awareness though it is practice in many religion, sciences, and culture. Another accepted method that modern science can interpret is focus energy. Believe it or not, you can transfer that energy to change the course of things if there are enough of you to create a vibration in the air with the same subject in mind. Preferably postive thoughts on that subject recommended.

What we know for sure in science and physics!!
Energy can neither be created or destroyed! ..Right? ...yeah we are on the same tune and mind now. Food we eat contains energy that we dissipate as work done whether physical, creative technical or just thoughts. Yes, thinking requires energy together with good memory cells. And protein to enhance the connectivity of related thinking. Example, a genius maybe forgetful or professor who cannot do anything apart from subject matter he is familiar at or a good physics teacher who is poor in math..... So we do indeed know smart, intelligent, geniuses are all different and contribute differently to the same course. Eg a genius like Nikola Tesla invented electricity, Thomas Edison the electic light bulb while intelligent professors in universities and engineers of organization enhanced it for 21st Century application like the torchlight on our phones.....I believe You know what I mean.......

So what if smart, genius and intelligent are part of today's supply chain and so what if energy cannot be created or destroyed? Wallah....precisely, just exactly that if you are asking the question. You are all highly intelligent ppl to be contributing and having an opinion here. From food to thoughts to ideas to opinion to commenting here to.......where did the energy went? Well it went in that exact order into digital and storage here. Someone read it , got an idea from the comments and put it into action like buying or selling a share to not doing anything. Some vent their anger when they lost money due to recommendation put here. So in short something never creates nothing. It creates something.....just how much of it.

What I am saying here is more than that....we are talking about the amt of positive energy we are focus on any one stock. Don't believe me! Just observe for yourself. Look at the i3 main page on the right side where they rank the queries of popular stock "Trending Now - Hot Stocks today" the only difference is, those that rank 1 may not be the one with most vibration of positive energy. Example Sumatec, may be on a move however there is also a negative information yesterday of CFO selling. So there is energy however the positive and negative are balanced of. This mean you may have buyers and sellers each with contradicting views and the $ingle focus is disrupted. Now that energy may change on Thursday hopefully all postive in next news and all reader or buyers of the stock will focus on and it will fly. If there are all postive focus, the attributes are they are willing to commit to sellers. Go thru that list and tell me which one tomorrow have all the positive focus for now and tomorrow?.....

Don't give me the answer now.....tell me on Thursday after tomorrow's market performance is obvious. Pls don't equate old news to focus. Focus those as recent as within last 2 weeks. When you focus, you focus on what you like and what you don't like and feel deeply for it. If you don't have negative feel for it among the 10 stocks listed there ie you have not read any negative information of it lately, then just focus on the good news you know and what it will translate to.

Be true to yourself, and you will see it happening if your stock is among the top 10. This is because tomorrow is something you already know immediate now. I am asking for only 1 day because tomorrow new news may change your opinion. .....

Good luck.....God Bless!!

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2014-07-13 17:27 | Report Abuse

Not that I m back writing but it gets pretty boring fishing in the high seas. At one point I thought I caught a whale when my Bauer or was it my Cabela felt stuck like an anchor station at the base. These are mighty fine rods and for it to snap, it really must have taken a beating. However it turned out to be a Pollock quite common in the US waters.
So how did it turn out that a superb rod can snap by a common fish? Well my crew mates said they saw a swordfish ate my catch when I was abt to reel it in just before the rod snap. So it was actually the sword fish that did the damage and not the pollock.
Pollocks are actually fishes that makes a large catch by US fisheries. Still considered valuable however a prize catch like a swordfish would have seal my status as a super fisherman...one who is a first timer in the US high seas.

Looking back at the past two hrs of action , I m back to my chair now almost feeling sea sick. What if i did a first timer catch of a swordfish...what should I do if I had reel it up ......what what what? Well it didn't happen....but if it did, I would not have the time to contempt with the risk that I would have faced.....I would have reacted like the trained investor I am.......I would have first ascertain the size first and wait and wait and wait until the swordfish gives up and then reel in the prize catch. I will NOT however take the quick approach of shooting or maiming the creature as it takes away all the fun of the battle of the will and wits.
I have landed BIG fishes in the share market before and acknowledge they don't come often. I have seen some like Daiboichi, Axiata, RHB.....and the latest Ecoworld and I believe Insas could be a potential. Those mention had achieve more than 40% in a short stretch albeit some did above 100% like Axiata even at rights issue at 1.80 and see what it is today. We term them as marathoner. There are those Marathoners that can do many sprint to complete the marathon. These are desirable stocks and I do not distinguish them.

So it is obvious you can see a BIG fish, so you thought....I was there and I thought I only caught a pollock but had the swordfish tugging away at my catch. In most cases, our catch are not what it is.....most of the time it is indirect approach that helps us catch the BIG fish. Example if CIMB takes/buyout RHB who will benefit immediate in the share price? I think the answer is obvious and we need to see these few steps ahead instead and unlike my case where my catch was mistaken all because I did not have my eyes on the prize catch and did not even notice it was a price catch but focus on my broken rod.....


LOL........have a nice World Cup finals.......

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2014-07-12 22:54 | Report Abuse

I have collected as much as I can on Friday.......coming Monday will be another round of buying fr me. Mr Low Gay Teck has responded graciously on my Cons comment with two article reported by Theedge and one by Thestar. I believe the comments are very very positive.
If Monday can touch 40 cents or below I will be buying and buying. I like 70cents.....

Pls do not follow me if you are not prepared to hold till end of the year and I m no expert, I m just an armchair critic with nothing better to do while whale watching off the Monterrey Bay

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2014-07-12 21:58 | Report Abuse

Cont'd
Ever heard of the saying, you cannot fight the market?
When the rogue manipulator in our local market want to manipulate, they sell a couple of thousand shrs to provide a springboard to ensure momentum after they send some rumors out prior. Thus when you see a shr moving up at low volume, these could mean two things.
One being some one is collecting and do not want to be notice and they buy many rounds as if they are different buyer as opposed to one buy queue of high volume. This enviroment is very well suited if there are large volume of sellers. This is because when there is a large volume of sellers, they can buy many times for the same price.
Second, those that want to move the price with the springboard method mentioned. This enviroment is very good if sellers are low volume so that the rogue manipulator don't need to throw out to much money to move the price at their expense. Thus if you see a large volume at a price of seller (some call it road block), it is difficult for manipulator to move the shr price and normally is not desired.

Now coming back to the 3 points that I mentioned in the beginning of this writeup. We are now at the new cycle after all the recession woes, European/ECB, woes, Feds reversal of interest rate, China market and manipulation etc, . A new cycle only happens after a great furore,calamity, acute changes and never ever during boom. During Boom, everyone is too busy making money and during CRISIS everyone is downsizing or finding reactive solutions to their woes and this will be the period with the most ups and downs which we have seen. What I am adding here is what happens after the BOOM and after the CRISIS which is what I wrote on about the M&A.
This is much the same as what the world did after the last Tsunami where they took steps to strengthen themselves with early warning system and a warning to the world on nuclear plants. A lot of standards and action were derived and taken as prevention and safety measures.

So in terms of M&A in Malaysia and the world, it's is a form of regroup, strengthen and prevention of certain weakness. While the world in general has change since the 80s and 90s compared to today, the behavior of during BOOM and after CRISIS, never change.
This brings me to my second point, with all the data mining, charts, fundamental analysis, indexes, etc that we are now experiencing the intermediate cycle of recovery before the next BOOM. However, the period of BOOM will be indeterministic. Reason being the coming BOOM is unpredictable is because many things have been introduce into the global system/market. Example cashless transaction, global cashless transaction, new minting like Bitcoin, new denomination, new indices and banking like Islamic system etc. now that we are at the RECOVERY, taKing position and strengthening is key thus M&A will ensure the next anchor and position.
Of course the above is considered the past now, and while recovery, what is thought to be the best position is collecting the undervalued stocks. Last Friday, there was one which I cover amongst the many undervalued stock covered by many finacial gurus here, however my intent here is not selling that stock but understand what will happen next.

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2014-07-12 21:58 | Report Abuse

When I first wrote about M&A which was quite some months back, almost a year ago to be precise, was in recognition of 3 things.
1) the enviroment of late 80s and in particular 97 Asian financial crisis in which Malaysia slipped into recession
2) the difference in Forex, indices and information gathering inclusive of data mining between the 90s and those available today
3) the structure of organized information from no 2 with more intervention from World Bank, IMF, FED Reserve, EU, and of course the variable equation opened by China into the market

I have time and time again mentioned Oil, Gold in many things I talk about. These are manipulated commodity in the market place and Malaysia is just a follower. There are many more however these two commodities are close to my heart. What these means is when the leader does the manipulation, by the time it trickles down to the follower, the leader is ready to play the next card. Hence a quick reversal can happen and many are left caught in a dilemma. This bring along contrarian views like those shared especially in some examples of CPO where many ppl start collecting when the prices are down due to fear selling of further downside or prolong sideways trading. With the contrarian views backed by trends and period in charts together with fundamental analysis, these contrarian have formed a group of leaders armed with the right strategy to combat these manipulators. We have seen very honorable investors who are able to foresee the trends whether in the charts or environmental to recognise when to move in with their buying spree. I think you know who these ppl are. However there are also those who manipulate further by sending their own message out only to sell when the price goes up.

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2014-07-11 13:56 | Report Abuse

NOW Talking about scoring 7-1 Goal, I m a great supporter of technique and strategy. The Germans are strong in the mid field and strong in both defense and offense . What this means is anytime you attack them, you have to be mindful of a counter by German team whilst your strategy needs to be sound. You cannot afford an all attacking or all defending especially the latter strategy which we saw in Argentina vs Netherlands. It makes not only a boring game but one not worthy of World Cup.

In the case of share market, there are many techniques and observation that can be put into the strategy to play the game. And the biggest playmaker is the Coach. Our PM, Najib said Brazil lost because lack of leadership during and also before the match. I must commend this statement....a wonderful observation to begin with however where it applies and where it lacks is also part of leadership. In this case, it is clear that the Germans came with a adaptive strategy towards the samba Brazillian who were looking to please the fans with technique showmanship but lack strategy.

So what are the strategies that we can apply to share market?
1) Buy and Hold (investors)......hmmmm this sounds familiar. A lot of potential shares do not flair up immediately and takes time. This however are shrs which have during their lifetime breakout before however they maybe dormant at the point of entry
2) Breakout shares (traders).....this is commonly buy high sell higher. This term comes about because some breakouts don't happen after cup and handle is form. Hence we have to confirm that a breakout is imminent even after the cup and handle thus buy high.....
3) Buy on anticipation of rumors (speculator) - merger, unexpected dividend, bonus issue,....
4) Buy on anticipation of dividen - this are dividen that are expected periodically. One example was TurboMech. The dividend was expected and along with the inclination of the share price, it managed to hold the price until the day before the ex-date of dividen

So what about L&G and where does it sit?
Before I go into any deep discussion, these are probably the pros and cons that I have gathered which include those from all of you
Pros:
1) good financial performance
2) balanced gearing - common gearing in this sector is 0.3 and 0.4 is considered balance
3) good Management - Low Gay Teck is indeed a PRoject. Manager at heart and a fair MD. I beg to differ he is a fantastic MD as some say because he is not a balance leader which I will share in the cons. However the management and board are good to support this point
4) balance projects with balance partnership for leverage of strength
5) good backing fr Mayland
6) unexpected dividen announced
7) cheap shr price and still undervalue

Con:
1) I agree with some that there are no announcement or information about progress. This constitutes poor communication and marketing. Hence the MD is weak in that sense. This is an inherent problem of project managers who have not develop into full fledge leaders who must be able to do it all.
2) share price fluctuation which is in the region of almost 5% daily needs to be address. However I don't think it's serious as some compare with Tropicana. Reason is you can expect even up 10% fluctuation to be still under control

Verdict?

Firstly, this is an old counter and investor, traders and even speculators think they have seen it all and the price of the shr is what it is which makes it less exciting. This coupled with lack of information makes this counter even less attractive. However if you look at the pros vs cons standing at 7-2 (almost the score of Germany vs. Brazil, a lot are left to believe Germany can finish off Argentina based on the sizable margin they won against Brazil. After all, your strength is how much you can deliver at one game and at every World Cup. The last two World Cup, Germany was at 3 Placing while Argentina ended its run at Quarter finals in 2006 and 2010.) In the case of L&G, Low Gay Teck at helm since 2008 and have shown result each and every year and even last quarter.
This is where an effective strategy is in the case of L&G. The coach is the same, the strategy is working, and they are winning each and every game results since 2008. They have also corrected the incentive for their players and in this case dividen for investors which will encourage more support

With all the facts and analogy shared, I believe the verdict is clear whether the winner will take the whole pie or not.

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2014-07-10 14:46 | Report Abuse

Now that Part 1,2,3 all happened or happening, what are you to do?
Not too long ago I wrote a few pieces of article on hedging and merger and mentioned I believed that M&A will prevail because of tough times ahead. For those who recall, very well and those who don't, can read them in my posting. I am revisiting this subject as most of you would have noted that there are a lot of M&A happening. This is not rocket science and neither am I a clairvoyant in stock market. This is simply just a cycle in the market place and everything goes around.

Why am I writing the follow up?
I am writing because some of you asked on what to expect next, now that the stories are coming together.

Of late we have seen quite a few M&A, and quite a few hedging in property. I believe the M&A portion I have already explained very detail however the hedging portion is from the down stream is something I would like to write about today!
When I talk about hedging, I mean purchasing of property, landed or ur landed assets. This may be anywhere in the world however i still believe Malaysian property is still at the exploiting stage. (Pls read my earlier comments on infrastructure in Malaysia which will bring up all the property, ammenities, value, foreign investment and etc )

Why ppl hedge?
I have explained GOLD as a form of trading especially by Chinese and barter trading in Messopotamia with the earliest recorded history way back in 6000BC. Once trading in whatever form was accepted, ppl started realizing the worth of their valuable and assets. These assets maybe natural resources or produce that is unique to certain countries and became an object of value during a trade or exchange. When that happen, ppl started to learn hedging. But in today's world that is without borders in transaction, this may only hold true partially depending on the commodity.
The worlds top 2 commodity Gold and Oil will prove otherwise. Reason being, the top countries producing them may not be the countries with top reserve. Example top Gold producing may be China but they may not be the one with the highest gold reserve, in fact they are at the 6th spot.
Hence if we understand the analogy above, we would understand that value is determine by the world market, culture , supply & demand, enforcement and control, most traded Commodiy and so on placing a value on them. So comes the next question, why not money?

Why not money to hedge?
Money is hedge thru FOREX and is also traded. Base on what I have written, should give you a good idea why Malaysian ringgit is so weak........trade, supply and demand, enforcement and control etc, all play a determining factor and hence to hedge RM would not be very wise unless we see something of a great difference in the way we do business and being decisive in our business and govt policies. From a foreign view of Malaysia, with its indecisive Govt policies, would already give you a good understanding as to WHY?

So what else is there to hedge?
OSK has sold it Financial Business and was left with dwindling ideas which include Property and Developement. Similarly with Felda who has got loads of land and decided on Property and development. And many many more examples but this two maybe close to our hearts at this point.
While the World population is at all time high 7 billion, the stats show it will be exponential growth moving forward. And while our fathers, grand father and great grandfathers each have build, bought or own a property this is unlikely to sustain the growing population. Ppl are looking at better, more convenient, more growth, more more more of a property in today's market hence the value is also driven up up up on top and above the inflation. So for those who are waiting for property prices to fall, should expect on properties in lesser demand areas to drop because like any valuable commodity like gold and oil, it will attract foreign buyers especially with our weak ringgit.

So the strategy employed by developers moving forward is to create alliances, partnership or M&A for all the reasons I have stated. For those who are asking and saying loans are difficult to get, and so on being the reason for property prices to fall better think again.......

Good Luck!!!!!

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2014-07-09 22:24 | Report Abuse

Tata.....got to go Whale Watching .....

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2014-07-09 22:12 | Report Abuse

Good luck whoever buying....chao....

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2014-07-09 22:11 | Report Abuse

Nobody care abt the LA conversion lah ....it's all down to flipping the counter with the best insurance during this tough time

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2014-07-09 22:03 | Report Abuse

Everybody is looking for insurance. This one insurance at the 2 cents dividend. That will be my head start.....

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2014-07-09 21:48 | Report Abuse

Relative I won't curse lor....kakaka

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2014-07-09 21:40 | Report Abuse

This one is loser pool...trust me......I know them personally

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2014-07-09 21:38 | Report Abuse

Btw I m buying in big big ohhhhh.........don't say I didn't tell you guys...

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2014-07-09 21:36 | Report Abuse

Spain may have lost in World Cup but they are definitely looking to score big in Iskandar......

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2014-07-09 21:35 | Report Abuse

Aik why director must sell shrs if owner want to buy land.....chun boh Chua72.....

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2014-07-09 21:29 | Report Abuse

Pls don't believe!!.....Aik...did I say it will go up?...kakakaka

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2014-07-09 21:20 | Report Abuse

Walao....my home is Destroyed.....:)

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2014-07-09 21:19 | Report Abuse

August will be good mth
1) World Cup ended
2) Anticipation of financial results
3) cheap stock at low PE - Penny stock will be in the game again
4) it will be double flair fr Aug with financial and dividend date expected to be announce
5) investors will be looking for trading buy on this one up uo October

News & Blogs

2014-07-09 20:00 | Report Abuse

Ok ok....I wanted to write this but somebody beat me to it. Now Mr Tan KW, since you posted this, can you tell me how this withholding tax in terms of monetary differs from the old tax assuming both are the same at 5 %......? Pls comment interm so absolute number......our govt wants rm20 b from this....

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2014-07-04 08:33 | Report Abuse

Malaysia must move fast. Singapore alliances already ready to move as one. The reason for the merge is to have business focus, cost management, asset efficiency and global positioning.
Note the latest per capita GDP wealthiest is Luxemberg, followed by Norway, Qatar, Macau, Switzerland , Australia.......Singapore
Yes you read right...Australia is at no 6th position and Singapore is 9th under the World Banks stats...

So this position tells you, Singapore without any natural resources and and a country small in size have achieve this stature in a short time and Malaysia should be fast on the coming alliance and merger as we have better property developers and better positioning at this point!!

If no action again, will cause saturation and Singapore will once again Top us in this department also.

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2014-07-03 12:26 | Report Abuse

Malaysia Property Developer must strike now while the pan is hot!!!! Especially those with foreign Landbank and marketing office and partners. The Malaysian Finance Ministry and Housing Ministry must support this!!

This is a real and serious appeal. We have seen the amount of back pedaling in Singapore and Hong Kong recently from their cooling measures. As I have said before and again, Malaysia is a different ball game. For one, we sit on the continent itself and not separated by waters or own many islands. This makes Malaysia integral in that sense. We must think 5 years down the road as some are already embarking here on future businesses as some might have read on the ala 5th Avenue New. York brought to Golden Triangle, High Speed Rail Singapore to Thailand, creation of Hubs in Penang, KL Central, and. Iskandar. These 3 locations will be the first phase of Hub to help support the infrastructure to come. This infrastructure will in turn help bring up the smaller towns like Ipoh, Seremban, PD,..... Which hasn't really seen incline in their property value as expected 20 years ago.

Also I have already mentioned, we are NOT looking correctly as we view it from our local financial Instituition (FI). What this means is that we only see our FI being in dilemma due to the shrinking loan base but we are not looking from foreign bankers who see this as true potential and willing to give loan upstream and downstream. Globalization is all about partnership and globalization is all about expanding bases. What can eventually happen with the tightening of loan and what Bank Negara thinks is control of Non performing loan may cause local businesses with foreign partners to obtain the loan outside the country and bringing it into Malaysia. Some may want to view this as foreign investment however this is far from the truth. Anything borrowed from outside may have greater impact because the exchange rate may be better however the interest rate my depend on the currency of the central bank. Example In 2008/2009, saw Japan banks giving 0 % interest which saw an influx into Asia in particular Malaysia however when they removed that, there was a sharp decline in our Market. Hence it is always a practice to invest and payback to the currency of loan. Thus in the case mentioned, as there are interest payment involved, the inflow of money is only temporary depending on the size of the project and investment and the money will always be channeled back out of the country for interest, capital and gain.

With the above, Malaysia's weakness in currency exchange and loans from the FI maybe the strength of foreign buyers and investors. So unless the M&A, the banking system is circumvent fast enough, more and more foreign developers and bankers are going to come in and the end game maybe a vacuum of local of investors. When that happen, Malaysia will be at the mercy in every department from forex, exchange, economy, etc because we will be at threat of any foreign investor pulling out while we are not able to support the buy back.

The above is much more complexity simplified in 1 to 2 dimension of the works.

Also remember I wrote a piece on why our EPF funds withdrawal for unit trust has been limited and controlled......this is one of the reason ie the retention in EPF is to support the falling knife if foreign investor in KLSE pulls out. However this can only do so much because the funds are limited.

I will share a piece on how GST is being used. A lot of ppl ask me this question....
1. if GST is the same as previous tax as explained by the customs and govt, in the sense that it is the same % being transferred from top to bottom (disti, reseller, retail....) except that the old system, tax is only levied at the end consumer
2. Why opposition and general public thinks this will inflate the prices further?
3. How does it benefit the govt with the targeted RM20 b if this tax can be claimed back by the higher tier of the supply chain..?

Answers next.....but understand the earlier write up first because it is going to help you to time your selling when signs arise

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2014-06-27 00:43 | Report Abuse

If you truly understand where I am coming from, it will be like the banks in the 90s being merge from 20 banks to 10 and to what it is today.

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2014-06-27 00:34 | Report Abuse

The Exchange - Part 3 - The rising tide and the dragon's lair

The Chinese have been migrants and travelers over the course of their 5,000 years of history. They have travelled to many parts of the world in their endeavor to find greener pasteurs and better living. Though the Chinese are more known to be conquerors than explorer in their own continent, there were one or two like Hong Bao and Dayuan amongst the likes of many French, Portuguese, Italian, Americans, Spanish explorers and the list goes on. So this means that the Chinese were more migrant and conqueror than actual explorer base on history. That being said, the Chinese were the earliest in metal trading more in the lights of trading thought actual barter trading was earliest recorded in Mesopotamia back in 6000 BC.

So it's not surprising that Chinese hold gold as precious metal close to their hearts when they migrate between continents to find new homes which they continue to do so till today having such history in the past. Today however, the Chinese having those migrant attributes and holding precious metal to extricate themselves in a new land or to pass down wealth to the next generation. In a modern era of the 21st Century, we are seeing the same migration and conquering to spread their wings and they achieve that by conquering businesses in a foreign land or hedging their fund by setting up hubs in key countries like Frankfurt Germany to contain forex fluctuation which may result in loses. That is similar to hedging using precious metal like gold in the older era however gold hedging is still done today as gold reserve.

Having said the above, The Chinese have spread their wings to other parts of Asia and Europe to contain saturation and spread their risk as inflation looms in their own country and the world at large. In Malaysia and many other countries, they chose mostly construction and property development while hedging funds mostly on weakness in Europe and United States while their gold reserve stands at 6 in world while Germany is second. Is that also why they hedge forex there?

Anyway coming back to my point here, where China is coming in strong with construction and Property Development in this region and Malaysia is an ideal place given their weak ringgit exchange, China's strong and stable gold reserve and currency valuation hedge in other countries. If a country hedges in Chinese money, like I understand MAS did, we are hedging a secondary currency which makes us even weaker.

So now that we know this, PNB creating the super conglomerate within its own subsidiary maybe considered a small fry unless they take up partnership or venture or take over the like of Felda's properties local and abroad and strategise demarcation in the regional business vs domestic, they are only looking at a small part of the business only because the Chinese would have endless edge base on the hedging which will allow them to continuously pump in money and still not lose

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2014-06-25 21:31 | Report Abuse

Barbarian, there is no limitation when it comes to good property company. Unlike plantation where it depends on weather and global demand, property depends on timing, strategy and sustainence. Eg See Hoy Chan has good sustainence and can do BTS while EnO is niche and well strategize while some others are good at timing their launches and foresee 2 to 3 years down the line.
Hence my answer is simple, while plantation and forestry have to plan their % to convert between them over the next 5 years ( I believe now most are converting to palm oil for higher yielding) to ensure continuous growth, while OnG must continue to expand their width in product and services while winning over more parallel contracts, as for property developers if they get the 3 mentioned area right (timing, strategy...) they have only to focus on expansion.....

In the case of EnO and most other property counter, Malaysia has already saturated, Singapore also saturated. Saturated here means volume saturation, means the volume buyers have saturated. Most buyers cannot get loan while property developer cannot develop their prime area too fast as there are only so many buyers but many developers. But what it does not mean is that the niche rich have saturated. They are buying everywhere....Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, UK,.....
So the game has to be everywhere now, everywhere global. They cannot do it without Chinaman developers during the hard inflation times. There is no point setting up a conglomerate of locally strong developer and consolidate them at this time but to position themselves for overseas market. Thus everyday you here a PD buying and developing a place outside. Malaysia.

So my thinking is simple, instead of launching KV, Penang, or Seberang Prai or Johor flagships in rotational meet their target, they can include London, Melbourne, London, China,....where these places are picking up faster and have better yield. To do that , they should not tag all local developer and combine by merely GDV as a finish end property that cannot sell is of no value. They should combine those with good domestic and global mix development Landbank first as phase 1 during this inflation period. This will contain the revenue to balance while taking a solid position for the 3 years to come. After all who is to know what will happen in 3 years......

So my suggestion is take some of the PNB companies and not all the major for M&A execise. The most appropriate is Sime with SP Setia and EnO for global however I&P should focus on domestic. i&P have done their own M&A recently and bulking up KV and Johor Landbank. If they want to go on a larger scale for global, they should look at Felda Global for venture, or partnership or forming a consortium to take on the global market as Europe is recovering.

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2014-06-23 15:04 | Report Abuse

Happy Worldcup!! Wow so many good teams playing like they have not warmed up yet. See how much difference a chief maker ie Coach is comparing the last two World Cup. I like Korea because they are an Asian underdog and their previous World Cup endevour with coach Gus Hiddink certainly made a ton of difference.

So what I have mentioned about the Chief Maker for the Super Conglomerate to merge and deliver is the same thing. Just like a football match, nothing is certain at every turn. I know I know, some of you are saying football is controlled by bookies right?......so is the property sector but instead of bookies, they use brokers. These guys are able to suggest, propose, do a blueprint and bring the parties to buy in. Of course these brokers want it as big as possible because by the shear size mean the trasaction will be sizable and the commission will equally follow.

So why stop at PNB, why not Felda Global......now the suggestion is not just merely a take away from reading this. We have now moved into a global world. We know and need aggressive stand on how to tackle the global properties. We know that China developers are moving in all over the world to take position especially during the most difficult of times and property bubble suggested by many.
Why now for China? In China's view, and also many experts, the toughest time is the best time to take position. After all the property will only complete in 3 years at very least. This means that the bubble would be a past by then, and they have taken a strong footing. Moreover, being a new investment in a new country, the expectation is not as high and they may be the leader to bring down the price of property. Notice how so often, a company comes into Malaysia to moderate the prices that are escalating? We have seen this in Daisho, KIA, Hyundai, etc. However in the property, we are comparing development cost and the end product price. China companies may lose out only in Landbank and the price they are buying their Landbank in psf maybe higher since they came in late. They have circumvent some of the situation by partnering local partners while some of the raw building materials are brought in from China at very cheap cost. On top of that you get a case like Forrest City, whereby instead of buying the land at high price in Johor, they reclaim the land thru local connection which maybe cheaper than otherwise and they even did so without DEIA.

We have seen how Proton practice "Protectionism" by raising the tax and duty of Korean cars and other Japanese cars. Imagine firstly the Korean came in much later into the car segment than Japan but already build a strong base all over the world and poise to overtake the Japanese. (I can say the same for phones but I think the point is clear) Secondly can you imagine if. Malaysia did not have this protectionism in place to cover for a losing Proton, the price of a equivalent specs to proton may be 50% or less of their price. If a Proton cost RM60k, the Korean car can be RM30k or less.

All that being said, Property Development is going to set a new order, after these very challenging times in Malaysia. Loan base among Financial Instituitions are shrinking, not unless you are RHB working on all lower spectrum of low interest rate. They are targetting to be no 3/4 (So if you are taking loan, pls remember to consider RHB, THEY are the LOWEST!! )
Ok ok back to the topic, moving forward, we will be in jeapordy, by WE I means local Property Developers. Previously we thought we are immovable, untouchable because of landbanks we hold, but now we know landbanks are only a part of the total build of and selling of end finish products. We also have to consider the buyers, the material cost, the exchange rate, the loans, and the options for buyers. Buyers today can end up buying all the way to London or Australia is the price and growth is faster elsewhere. Also note those countries mention, the buyer only service the the principal after the property is ready which means, they can rent the vacant possession and pay for the loan.

So now do you still think PNB bringing its individual subsidiaries together as far fetch and not required? In fact, in an instant, I did mention that a property developer should focus their management on national and global and not lump all as property developer . Have a thought!!

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2014-06-22 03:23 | Report Abuse

The Exchange Part 2
Now that the scene and the script of PNB being the Chief Maker and mooting a super conglomerate to take the global is set, the only way forward is to thwart the pieces of the jigsaw forward, piece by piece. The intention will be clearer once, more pieces fit into the parcel. However, this does not mean they are not clear what needs to be done just because they throw these pieces by part giving a confusing and contradicting signal.

Moving such a big piece together would require the moving ships to be intact while they move in together. This means that the captains of the ships must first be leading and not aborting the mission mid way thus creating a mis-direction and back to the drawing board. This is exactly the case in SP Setia, where the expected major consolidation of project and closing the ranks amongst the management did not achieve it's target when Liew left. It is not that Liew is irreplaceable but the timing was not. As I mentioned in my last writing, when mergers happen, it is very key that there are no revenue leakage. These leakages may come from areas in financial that are not locked in and accounted for due to poor planning, or major changes like CEO dropping off mid way thus failing to get the number planned properly induced into the financial reporting. Unlike operating revenue where everything is BAU ( business as usual) an incomplete major project (like a massive merger) and task can drive the whole revenue frenzy. After all, it is a plan and execute stage.

Why keep Terry with an offer at rm2.90/ shrs and throwing the whole privatization of EnO to Sime into open books?
Again I refer you back to my earlier writing that I believe Terry is key not only because of EnO, but also London projects. He has shown in his prude and yet shrewd business acumen sense in his nego especially those required for STP approval and Prince Hse in London, that he is the man for the major merger project.
The selling of the 10% from Sime to EnO plays two role
1) to retain Terry for the mentioned major task and reason
2) if I&P is to lead the buyout, they will still have to buyout Sime for the same price it would have to pay EnO if the former did not sell the 10% to supposedly Terry and his Management team. Example. Now Sime sells 10% to EnO at 2.90 and the buyout happens, and the offer is say 4, PNB or I&P will still have to pay 4/ shr to EnO and Sime for the EnO shrs right? So what is the difference? None to be clear and more to gain because by reducing Sime to 22% stakeholder of EnO, they secured Terry to continue and at the same time appease the Penang State Goverment to quicken the approval as the imminent threat of a possible buyout of EnO by Sime (a GLC) has been diffused. To note, is that Sime being a GLC possibly buying out EnO is REAL and a threat to Penang State Goverment as the current Federal Govt is on a drive to win back Penang State and what better way to get more support in and provide jobs and positive influence.

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2014-06-17 13:27 | Report Abuse

This is truly a sad counter. Whatever I have said, they have admitted in the Sin Chew report thru Cimb. It's not that I have been proven right but I have been proven wrong in this counter before and chose to correct it.
Read the report carefully on their realization of lack of coporate governance and what they missed out is their admission of lack of focus.

When a corporation is truly focus on rebranding, all the good things will and shud be thrown into it. This includes, new projection with new direction, greater and bigger targets, dressing up the company with new and prominent logo, ready to go management, and reflect all this thru their share price. They instead failed miserably even with an achievement in revenue and announcement but share price went against them. It is very clear the investors did not believe in them, in their dress up , change of name, better achievement BUT practicing their old way of handling the investors and worst is loads of side deals thru PP and poorly time announcement of plans.

This has left the company spiraling down share price as if the company is going into a Pn17 or more devastating situation like bankrupcy or saddled with huge debt beyond point of not return. It is beyond comprehension to drop beyond 40% especially when the revenue was good and reduction of gearing was on target. I am writing here because their latest up coming AGM , they want more rights. They want to buy back shares as if the market was to blame even in reality the market did goreng the share however the truth is , the frying of the counter was only due to their own doing from RCULs, PP, Esos .......which did not put the loyal investors in mind.

How do you blame anyone when they loyally supported the share price only to be told a side deal in PP was at a lower price. Yeap this is Tropicana and leapord rarely change their spots.

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2014-06-08 17:20 | Report Abuse

Pls think deeply in the 4 exchanges I have mentioned.it will soon be crucial to depend on. Deia as I mentioned many times is a long process. A lot of due diligence required. However I would like to caution the recent sandiwara shared by the boss. For those who followed would know who the boss is. While the boss manipulate it one way, some of my writing does it the other.

For those who have read my recent piece, would noticed it was taken like verbatim by one TheEdge writer name Ann. While I do not mind plagiarism on my piece as I am not a full time reporter or analyst, this type of analyst come reporters do not have a plot of the story. If they take a piece of my cooking and some of another, you may get rojak in your story. Rojak as rojak is, does not have a real identity until you taste it to know which fruit it is. By then it would be too late.

In short, stay focus on the real story ahead in the exchange. As I mention Terry is a shrewd businessman and Ann mentioned shrewd businessman, however my correlation of the that has deeper meaning in the story. Very seldom in our investing experience we see a company working Esos or RCUL or Private Placement price above the market price or allow their share price to fall below that.

Like they say, if you are a champion in a certain discipline or sports, it will proof even more a champion in you, if you had lost that championship and work towards winning it back and finally do it. Losing and winning back and stay winning is more important and more than just winning alone. By losing and winning back, it proofs certain mental ability and will. In E&O, they have proven this many times over. First if you check history, the share has fallen to 86 cents before and see how they pick themselves up

This type of leadership is one which circumvents what ever situation by finding solution which can be clearly seen by followers and investor. Another piece which I mentioned very much earlier was the correlation of Tham to Liew whereby apart from helming their respective company, PNB also needs to avoid the same situation of Liew's contract ending and lack of leadership in Sp Setia during the last 1 year before he left. In that, PNB indirectly answered with the 2.90 offer followed by the justification by Tham and Sime.

Now, what I am suggesting above is PNB is doing a correction on the mistake they made with Liew and Sp Setia. While PNB is correcting their mistake, it does not mean Tham is a piece of log, sitting there to accept any offer made by PNB thru Sime. Ask yourself, what would you do if your first wife left and divorce you and took some of your savings and assets? You will definitely do a prenup if you get a second wife right? The prenup is the deal!! That is all true but what if you second wife is also savvy like Terry Tham is in business? Would she accept just any deal you put in prenup?
In this case the deal thrown to Terry is worthy of him giving up his early retirement but yet he is already 61 year old. So being 61 and planned your retirement only to give up is something worth looking at!

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2014-06-02 00:26 | Report Abuse

The answer is simple....if you already have a house would you rent your second and third house and continue to buy your fourth at a lower price while waiting for your second and third hse to appreciate in value?

The analogy is simple, Terry has already secured the 10% from Sime, meaning, he only has to find a way to pay for the shrs. It would be Lu Lu of Terry to take all the shares and pay with self funding because he can get it cheaper from the market at this point. On avg day E&0 can do 1 Million shares easily with queue potential of up to 3 to 4 Million if buyers are willing to commit to sellers price. So if Terry commit to sellers price daily, he can do 10 Million shares every 3 days making up almost 10% of the offered 110 Million shrs. Of course he cannot do it consequetively otherwise the share price will shoot beyond the 2.90 too early. Technically if he continues to buy daily, he will achieve his 110 Million shares over 40 trading days.

I think you get my drift. Hence the 110Million shares offered as buy back to Terry may really only interest him partially similar to the example I shared on hse rental whereby he would buy in from market between now till it's 2.90 and take a portion of the 110 Million shrs offered only, while the balance can be shared with partners. He will do his math early (anyway he graduated with actuarial science and his math SHLD be good) while he buy thru market and rile up the share price.....

If I assume a delay of starting the reclamation to Feb/Mar 2015from the targeted January, the should have a beautiful figure running up from approval to reclamation start date. I have already mentioned my TP and the run up will be interesting

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2014-05-29 22:25 | Report Abuse

Got to go.....have to catch my flight to New York. Chao

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2014-05-29 22:24 | Report Abuse

Joel there is no loyalty or confidence when the majority of shares and decision direction is not yours. In this case Sime. His role is his ability to execute and deliver according to the majority shareholders direction but for his role he can demand a deal before the agrees and that what I have just suggested.

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2014-05-29 22:08 | Report Abuse

And one more note.....this is a sweetheart deal which means it could be inked somewhere and the period could be short. Reason why it has to be short is Govt and GLCs are changing direction too frequently and Terry will not be Sohchai enough to pay 25% premium and allow it to drag too long exposing himself to further govt flip flops and exposing his > than 10% share risk. Don't forget he still has some shares in his pocket above the 9.94%

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2014-05-29 21:54 | Report Abuse

Time to re-check where we are.....is Terry Tham a sohchai? Sell his stake 3 years ago at premium of 60% at rm2.30 and buy back 3 years later at rm2.90. :) TheEdge would really like you to believe that in the way they write. "Sime sells back 9.94% to Terry, reduce their stake, quash the take ove rumor and avoid the Liew possibility in the SP Setia saga ..." Terry sounds like the puppet who eat, sleeps and shit at the will of Sime even to the level of buying back at a premium higher than he sold. My answer to TheEdge is simply poor critical thinking. They write what Sime wants them to see and say.

If I&P is prime over Sime, SP and a E&O, what do you think the exchange would be?...?? I have written a few pieces of this but today I just want to share just one thought.

Take this analogy
If you are a shrewd businessman and you sell your house to Mr A 3 years ago, would you buy back the house 3 years later at a higher premium than you sold? Not unless you are short sighted or don't believe in your own ability that you could have sold it much higher 3 years or more later than to do a piece of transaction like this. Now he has to buy the same house at almost 25% more than he sold. Possible? But not for a man of Terry' stature and one who wanted out many years ago.

So do you think Sime said to Terry, "here take it Terry buy back your own shares at 25% premium from his own selling price of rm2.30 3 years ago" ie Selling at further 25% higher to a man who wanted out many years ago and the man (Terry) just conveniently agreed?

Well it's going to be something much more complicated at this level.....at this level, it all about exchange and Terry is in it
Exchange 1, get stp 2 in complete the approval. This creates the re rating which is in Cimb and a Rhb's books. Both have vested interest esp the broker.
Exchange 2, pile up the sales pipeline and projects (watch for City of Elmina exchange with Sime in June) if it doesn't go thru, it could mean Sime Properties is on their own as they will also be consolidated into I&P hence relinquishing their % in EnO and they too want to prop up their numbers to show higher value for take over.
Exchange 3 , project manage London properties. Again we will need to see the exchange Prince Hse and Battersea. Liew is on project on Battersea. Terry will need to deliver a few
Exchange 4, helming the crossover into mothership. This is the most critical as most M&A lose their number during consolidation when merging. They need the key personnel to deliver to ensure numbers are intact when move into mothership.

The "Exchange" most commonly seen is additional % of shares given to the executor, re-rating value of offer base on the exchanges 1 to 4. My guess is RM 3.90 for EnO. My opinion is not rated. Pls read and understand the intended logic n flow. The price is higher than any of the investment houses but I believe the re-rating will change all include the exchange.

Ok take care folks. Time to go !!

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2014-05-29 20:24 | Report Abuse

Hello from Westcoast.....

Aiyo Yoda master get attacked again......Jedi council still strong......

My fren OTB, when are you getting out of trouble ? Lol........

Just a soft reminder to all, June is De Month to be careful unless you hold a catalytical shrs in property.

1. PD will have to commit a deposit base on GC ( Gross Cost)
2. OPR which I mention will happen in June
3. World Cup.......

Chao.....

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2014-04-21 07:52 | Report Abuse

Officially I do not exist anymore. You will understand in the coming days!
Read all my recent statement very very carefully....for those who manage to read the trade secret should see the full story and know when to release. I have said I will leave in early. May but looks like it will be earlier. Heed my advice especially on the GC and June. Time for me to go now. Take care and good luck.

Saturn OUT forever.

Love