As I mentioned before, as spot price moves towards exercise price and above, and as time to maturity shortens.. The more call warrants issuers need to buy underlying to cover.

thats because stable profits only started pouring in for the past 9 months.

Board resolved to accept offer to privatise.

New Supplementary notice on Foreign exchange administration rules will further weigh on banks like ABMB, as SMEs (net importer) are now allowed to receive in foreign currencies from resident entities with foreign currency export earnings for settlement of domestic trade in goods and services (subject to conditions).

This effectively puts pressure on ABMB's already lousy foreign exchange business.

Good Luck!

Who is this tyyap and where can I listen?

been buying since 1.02,1.04,1.06 today 1.11.

Too greedy this morning wanted 1.04. But ended up chasing at 1.11. Not the best entry point, technicals showing short term overbought signs. However med term still fundamentals and technicals, upside still intact.

U.S Economy has been expanding continuously for the past 45 months since 2015, where it posted a -0.2 GDP growth.

Also would like to share some of the points in a column by John Kemp on Reuters 2 days ago.

Investors seem to be betting history will repeat itself, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to keep the U.S. expansion going, just as it did in 1998, producing one final bull run in oil and equity markets.Between September and November 1998 the Fed cut U.S. interest rates aggressively, with three cuts amounting to a combined 75 basis points, to reverse the economy’s loss of momentum.

Prompt reductions helped to ensure the U.S. economy continued expanding for another 30 months before finally entering recession in April 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Lower rates and continued economic growth subsequently fueled a remarkable 56 percent increase in the S&P 500 equity index over the next 18 months as well as the dot-com bubble

Reflecting the strong economy, Brent prices more than doubled between September 1998 and August 2000 as oil consumption gains combined with OPEC output restraint and supply disruptions to tighten the market.

Brent’s six-month month calendar spread swung from a contango of more than $2 a barrel in the summer of 1998 to backwardation above $4 by the start of 2000 as excess inventories evaporated.

In 1998, low inflation gave the Fed policy room to offset a deteriorating international economy because of the Asian financial crisis.

By the time the Fed started cutting in September, the U.S. economy had already been expanding for 90 months, which was the third-longest expansion on record at the time.

Unemployment was at 4.6 percent, the lowest for a quarter of a century, while core consumer prices excluding food and energy were rising at 2.8 percent a year (both close to current conditions).

Late-cycle interest rate reductions can provide a very strong stimulus, and the cuts in late 1998 contributed to a renewed surge in activity so strong they were progressively reversed from the middle of 1999.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-economy-kemp/oil-and-equities-prepare-to-party-like-its-1999-kemp-idUSKCN1R01Q8

Hi Dicky, the last time crude went below USD $20 per barrel was in 2001. Prior to that crude was trade at a high of $35 in year 2000. After dipping below $20 in late 2001, crude price climbed steadily to a high of $147 mid of 2008. Of course it subsequently collapsed to a low of $36 in late 2008. But never before have we seen during the past few crises in the last decade for it to sink below $20. So why do you think it will sink below $20 now?

Just Fyi OPEC member's oil production has dwindled in the last 2 decades, from more than 3 mil bpd at the beginning of the century to around 1.2 to 1.4 mil bpd by late 2018. Furthermore Iran's oil exports fall in March even before further U.S clampdown. Also, Saudi Arabia on Sunday signalled that producers may need to extend the 1.2 mil bps of curbs past June and into the second half of 2019.

Albeit U.S has increase its oil production for the past few years, it has now made U.S the world's biggest producer, ahead of even Russia and Saudi Arabia. --> Why did OPEC + Russia decide to cut crude production in the first place? --> to safeguard their common interest which is to stabilize and support the oil prices. Now since U.S has overtaken both Saudi and Russia as the largest producer, do you think it would also be in U.S interest to ensure that the prices will not collapse? Else it will hurt all their U.S companies and thousands of jobs will be lost?

Lastly, if crude really heads below $20, dont say hibiscus, majority of your equities on KLCI will be sold off largely because almost 30% Malaysia's government revenue derives from oil revenue.

Lets not just look at quarterly profits. We can expect to see an increase in net profit of approximately 50% this FY.

Mind if i know where do you all check for the cash warrants?

1 of the components used to price CW is implied volatility. If they price it based on volatility of 20%, they hope that the actual price movement of the price is less than 20% during the tenor of the call warrants.

Typically FI(s) buys or hold some mother share once the CW is issued. As i mentioned, depending on maturity and their strategy, ideally they would be required to buy more if price moves above strike and reduce their mother share exposure if price moves below strike price.

With the impending cut in OPR, AFG will experience the biggest impact to earnings among banks. This is because its percentage of variable loans is arguably the highest when compared to all banks, currently at around 89.90%

Depends...depending on the issue size or delta size. Also how often they delta hedge. However, having said that, since they are short warrants, ideally, they would want the price of the mother share to be least volatile possible.

3 CW expiring in june with strike price of 1.10. Technically they would be require to buy more mother shares as spot price move above 1.10. Ideally, they dont care where the mother share price will really go, just dont be too volatile and as long as the spot price isnt near the strike price at maturity.

Call warrants are like options. When Financial Institutions offer such call warrants to the public, these F. I(s) are said to be short call warrants. Hence when they are short call warrants, they are short delta and as a result they will need to cover the short delta exposure by buying the underlying (mother shares).

Depending on the maturity of the warrants, the F. I(s) would be required to buy more of the share should the price of the share heads higher. This is especially so if it is ITM. So whether the warrants expire in the money or not, the F. I(s) are covered.

kan aku cakap dah....up few sen dont make so much noise. When reach 90 sen or 1.00 only talk.

continue to live in denial.

Where is corporatefinancier? why hide online, where is your 1-day class in investing please?

brother theong,

why interesting today?

Parties friendly to offerors who bought at 1.00 will do their best to ensure SCR to go through. Even if SCR dont go through, they will do their best to ensure that the price do not fall significantly below 1.00. Otherwise they will be stuck in a much worse position. Why?

Because if SCR dont go through, and if majority shareholders do not come up with a revised higher price, they will not be able to cut loss or off-load the amount they raked up at 1.00 under normal trading circumstance/environment. As you know, prior to SCR announcement, the average daily volume traded for this counter is very low.

So if SCR doesnt go through, they will also be stuck with a much higher break-even cost.

Based on the above scenario

1) SCR goes through, we will see the shares being offered at 1.10
2.) If SCR doesn't go through, NES major shareholders have no choice but to be pressured to offer higher price since parties friendly to offerors bought at 1.00 and above, they wouldn't want to get stuck at 1.00 and see the price tank way below 1.10.

whichever the scenario, this counter should be worth at least 1.10.

Again let's just put it this way
There were alot of sellers yesterday. BUT, in order to sell so much, u needed to have that many buyers as well. If u look at it from d other side, it is also fair to say there were Alot of buyers yesterday.

So question is who were the buyers/sellers?

Potential sellers:
1. Those who have held it previously and who would like to take profit
2. Those who bought them prior to the announcement and would like to take profit
3. Those who are proxies who are interested to keep the price low to make the SCR look attractive?

Potential buyers:
1. Those who see value from 1.00 to 1.10
2. Those who think that the value is greater than 1.10
3. Who else?

So based on the activity despite the higher volume selling, it is also safe to say that there was high volume genuine buying at rm 1.00 who sees the price moving to 1.10 and higher.

upon receipt of 93.75 mil due to MAA in jun 2019, this will bring cash per share to 1.26 per share.

Just cash ya!

GOOD CATCH CANDYGIRL!

@twh888 if deal blocked then the NES will end up having to buy at market rate using their own money.

If not, then back to square 1, NES just sit and wait and they will not have access to the company's cash. If they want cash, then they have to sell their shares to the market.

However as explained earlier, if the SCR goes through, they will have access to the 60 over mil cash int he company + assets. If they sell all their shares at 0.60 (provided got liquidity to absorb their amount), they will also be able to raise 60 over mil in cash, but left without any of the company's asset.

wow @ corporatefinancier

You can ask if people question but ppl cant ask you? Who's the bitter little brat now

I agree, dont hide behind an online identity. Tell us about your 1-day class on investing please. Let us know your name,company name and your business registration. I am interested.

ALAMAK! somebody jatuh bola

clap....clap....clap...

Malaysian GDP growth

2011 5.3
2012 5.5
2013 4.7
2014 6.0
2015 5.1
2016 4.2
2017 5.9
2018 4.7

Can you please tell me how does it warrant ABMB as a stock to show consistent negative net profit growth when in 2017, the malaysian GDP grew at one of its fastest pace in the past 8 years? Why is it so consistent in showing negative growth in net profit while other banks showing consistent positive net profit growth?

Anyway whatever. Why should i be the one to point the facts and numbers out for you, when you as an investor bought without evening looking into the numbers first.

Bet you dont even know where to get the Malaysian GDP figures. Bunch of ignorant fools living in denial.

Shhhhhh......

Lets look at it again. Prior to material announcement price was at 0.60. If any of us were to liquidate the share, we will only get 0.60 per share.

Now if SCR were to go through:

Cash balance post SCR = 66,618,265
Non-entitled Shareholders (NES) shares = 105,777,084
Cash per share post SCR = 66,618,265 / 105,777,084 = 0.63 per share

Meaning to say, post SCR if NES were to liquidate their company they will definitely get at least 0.63 sen for every share they hold. Since cash is liquid anyway.

But hold on, not will NES just get 0.63 sen for every share they hold. They also get ALL the ASSETS which amounts to ---> Total equity attributable to the owners of the company post SCR = 345,922,265.

Through this exercise they get to retain their value of share (in fact 0.63 sen per share is 3 sen higher than last trading price of 0.60 prior to announcement) but also get the NET ASSETS (WORTH RM 345,922,265) FOR FREE!

OMG @ corporatefinancier

"Good day everyone, we are pleased to introduce Finmarket Asia. We are a financial and investment training provider. Currently we are offering a 1-day class on investing in Kuala Lumpur. Please visit finmarketasia.net to find out more.

p.s. We would like to advise visitors to this website and the internet to be wary of scammers and fraudsters, especially investment related propositions. We have been working with the Malaysian Police Force on and off to create awareness on scams among the general public with the rise of technology and social media. "

ARE YOU FREAKING SERIOUS? and here you are accusing me of being a disgruntled employee when you cant even analyze basic net profit growth!? Maybe i should be the one reporting to police about you being a scammer.

@corporatefinancier please la, if you are a truly well-informed investor, you will meet all kinds of professionals from the financial industry, this includes bankers. Since your nick is corporatefinancier, i assume you are in the industry, if not, have frequent dealings with people within this industry. More so, you should know that the industry is damn small. It is not surprising you get first hand news from disgruntled employees. Like i said, just visit the branch.


MBB, RHB, CIMB all posts phenomenal growth. Dont forget these banks have high revenue/net profit base, in order to have such a percentage growth, it is even tougher if compared to having a low revenue base. Yet you all ask, why P/E so low, when the Earnings cant even grow?!

2018 net profit = 493,228 (-3.69% yoy)
2017 net profit = 512,123 (-1.90% yoy)
2016 net profit = 522,038 (-1.65% yoy)
2015 net profit = 530,780 (-5.81% yoy)

ARE YOU BLIND? look at past 4 years net profit. NEGATIVE GROWTH WEIHH. Numbers dont lie.

Fyi, ive profited from this counter back in 2012 on "take-over news". Hence i said this news have been around for more than a decade!


@corporatefinancier be honest to please. Are you disgruntled investor stuck in this counter with a high price?

Oh well since you are so blinded and bitter, i wont bother to share more. Good luck! meanwhile i go enjoy my other counter limit up =)

not sky no eye, you no eye.

must*

More importantly, such logicl/rationale much be shared out to the rest of the shareholders.

Another way to look at it

Non-entitled Shareholders (NES) shares = 105,777,084
Cash = 251,133,000
SCR payment = 184,514,735
Cash Balance post SCR = 66,618,265
Total equity attributable to the owners of the company post SCR = 345,922,265

NAPS post SCR = 345,922,265 / 105,777,084 = 3.27

POST SCR = by reducing cash per share from 0.92 sen to 0.63 sen, they effectively push their NAPS from 1.94 to 3.27. By reducing their cash per share worth RM 30,675,354, they effectively gained RM 140,683,521 worth of assets!

Finally, again, all these without having to technically reach into their own personal accounts to pay for it. All they have to do is to pay through the cash withheld in this company.

walau markus, where u get the figures? u sure anot.

Anyway look at it this way. Currently cash per share is at 0.92 sen. Using the cash from the company (251 million) for the SCR (Rm185 mil) still leaves them plenty of cash. Essentially they dont even have to fork any money out from their own pocket.

Temasek want to buy? Temasek also gave up la, previous CEO sng seow wah who was from fullterton, temasek's financial arm also left. You guys really think Temasek will buy? This bank is CHEAP FOR A REASON

and please ah...dont tell me how potential take-over yea. This take-over story has been on-going for the past 10 years. NOBODY WANTS TO BUY THIS BANK. Their business model is decades behind. Only doing lending business to SME and Consumer. Not to say their pricing competitive also. Moreover always struggling to think of ways to make their Loan-deposit ratio look nicer.

Any bank can just whallop their business up. This is the only bank where i heard where "favoured employees" get higher bonuses/promotion by reducing their budget year-after year. Growth Bank? good luck

only dumbos will invest in this counter. Every bank is posting good growth, this organization stagnant or marginal growth. High employee turnover, senior and mid level managers all busy meeting everyday, busy scandling with their own subordinate/colleagues and playing politics. Employees also demoralized, everyday ular and point fingers and politicking. Back office and middle office staff gets higher bonuses than front office staffs.

Just pay a visit to their branches. Forever empty. 5 counters open, 2 customer waiting also need to take 15 mins for your turn. No innovative products, only rely on SMEs and retail customers. Only rely on charging high margins to their customers. Such business can be easily taken away by other banks, should other banks just approach their customer with slightly lower margin. Especially when other banks provide better facilities, convenience, and better service.

Undervalued bank? Go visit their branches, talk to their employees, gauge their passion about their work. Go check glassdoor reviews.

i am so disappointed. I was waiting for danny at 0.40. Didnt managet to get any from him there.

No. Just well informed. ;)

proposed selective capital reduction.

=)
obviously you're the one not reading properly. Its ok if you don't understand what reloading ammunition is.

Why should i feel hurt when i am profiting and still ITM. =)

No idea why was my comment removed when i clearly highlighted that this stock may be dragged by near term fluctuation/correction in oil prices and USD/MYR movement.

True enough oil prices came off.

Having said that, it remains to be a very interesting stock.

cherasman will come and tell you, Bad move theong.

JP01,

Shhh....later samuel curse at you. Dont blame him, he stuck big time. He waited very long already, suddenly now correction he sure frustrated.

my statement too hard for you to comprehend? i am still long on this stock, reason why i sold is based on my technical readings whereby i see short term correction. Hence i sold some in view to buy at lower prices to lower my overall holding cost. Moreover, if i can afford to sell at 0.82, it goes to show my entry price was much lower than this ;) I dont take profit on 5 sens basis, so dont make so much monkey noise when it only moved by 5 sens.

If you have grown some bulu, you should understand by now that you must have multiple views in different time horizon. When somebody ask you whats your view on MRCB, you can tell me RM 2.00. But WHEN? 10 years time? dont just throw a target price, its important you put a time horizon/ time frame in it. So next time when you ask people can buy/sell or not, remember to ask by when can i get out and at what price.


Are you stuck samuel? bought at a single price above RM 1.00 and no more money to average lower?

budak nangis kuat2 ya...

jom kita baca chart MACD lagi. So what does your MACD show now? oh wait..since its dipping, lets talk put your MACD aside and discuss on fundamentals.

nasib baik i sold some at 0.82 to reload my ammunition. will add on dips.