EPS Estimate 19 sen Q2 2014 compare to Earnings Per Share 83 sen 2013.

ivankvs

From the Tariff hike of 15% or 4.9 sen/kWH... TNB only get 0.9 sen and the rest goes to the Govt. to reduce Gas subsidy.

Next Earnings Report is 04/22/2014.

Any projection of the 2nd Q earning ?

Tenaga has done nothing to improve it operational inefficiencies!

Relaying on 0.9 sen/kWH increase is a suicidal ....annual contribution is only about 500 mil /year ...RM125 mil per quarter...could not even cover Capital Expenditure.

I have sold my Tenaga shares.. 40,000 shares last Feb. bought at 5.55 avg. I will only get in if the "pass through cost" is certain to be implemented.

The next Quarter Report:-
1) Loss in FOREX
2) High Energy Cost - coal price gone up, FOREX Losses,
3) The large coal-fired plants (Tanjung Bin and Jimah)Shut Down... need to buy more from IPPs/Thailand/Singapore
4) Burning of more Distillates instead of coal & NLG

Also to quench public anger for the recent increase in Power tariff (4 sen to the Govt. to cut fuel subsidy) Tenaga will purposely report heavy losses for the 2nd Q.... in order to get the Pass through cost approved sooner.

ivankvs

Recent Tariff Increase of 0.9 sen is meant to address Tenaga increasing CAPEX.... is neutral to Tenaga overall earning.
Until the "pass through cost" is implemented and operation efficiency improved... there is little improvement in there is to see in Tenaga financial performance.

Imbalance Cost Pass Through (ICPT) mechanism !

This proposal has not been approved yet? In this country....every moves are very slow...need cabinet approval.

Alex Yong - Great - have a good time. In February 2014 I made gain for about 241 months of my monthly living expenses ...just from Tenaga Shares alone.

I don't hold any share now... waiting for the market to devalue .....below book value.... the bought Tenaga at RM5.55 avg.

Don't simply believe TA securities.... may be waiting to unload tons of Tenaga shares.

TA Securities has been the main Finacier for Tenaga ESOS.

Reproduced ......

Azman said " Coal price is down but Energy cost is up" .... anyone please elaborate. It may mean Tenaga is paying more Ringgit to purchase coal... as the ringgit depreciate further vs USD.
12/02/2014 05:46

my prediction on 13/02/2014 14:53 reproduced.......


PNB & EPF is selling ("Control Selling") in 3000, 2000, 1000... to prevent sudden selling by other. occasionally, they also in small number... 3, 5 ,10. They wait until the buy volume reaches 5000....then they start selling.

Price will sure drop during the next 3 trading days.... as Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P slide down.

Tenaga will soon be around 11.3 - 11.50. EPF and PNB has to earn something to Dividend.
13/02/2014 14:53

Monday, 7 Apr 2014


5:03PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,500,000 Shares Acquired)

5:03PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,500,000 Shares Acquired)

5:03PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,000,000 Shares Acquired)

4:52PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,093,100 Shares Disposed)

4:50PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (515,900 Shares Acquired)


Wednesday, 2 Apr 2014


5:46PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (550,000 Shares Disposed)

5:46PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (3,084,900 Shares Transacted)

5:46PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,362,500 Shares Disposed)

5:46PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (2,407,700 Shares Transacted)

5:46PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,362,500 Shares Disposed)


Monday, 31 Mar 2014


4:37PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,000,000 Shares Disposed)

4:37PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,170,800 Shares Disposed)

4:37PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (756,700 Shares Disposed)

4:36PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,604,200 Shares Disposed)

4:36PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,086,000 Shares Acquired)


Thursday, 27 Mar 2014


4:37PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,338,500 Shares Disposed)

4:37PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,645,300 Shares Disposed)

4:37PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (4,039,900 Shares Transacted)

4:36PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (3,601,800 Shares Transacted)

4:36PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (2,159,600 Shares Acquired

Be Careful.... Foreign Fund Managers still holding 26% of Tenaga Floated Shares.... they started dumping during the last 2 trading days last week.... may continue until to about 18 %???

I sold all 60,000 shares in Feb 2014 @ RM11.74. Bought avg. RM5.55 accumulated over 6 years.
Looking at Tenaga Historical Chart.... Share price will revert back to just under Book Value.
-------------------------

Fundamentally Tenaga Business Model is Flawed....

1) Generations are Controlled by IPPS .... all Fuel Cost increases are passed to Tenaga and to the consumer.... Earning Fluctuations... Petronas Gas shut downs ..... IPPs burn distillates @RM2.21/litres ... all passed through costs.

Tenaga need to control at least 70% of all Country Generation .

IPPS earning unaffected.... Tenaga Earning drops !!!!

2) CAPEX - Only Tenaga bear all the costs :- Distribution and Transmission..... does not contribute to Tenaga Earning but cut-through Tenaga earning.

3) Repair and Maintenance (Transmission & Distribution) - all Tenaga Costs

3) System Loss (@5 - 12%)
All at Tenaga Costs.

Tariff increase net effect = -1.4 + 0.9 sen = negative 0.5 sen

Company CPU (sen/kwh) todate.
_________________________



2013 is 30.8 sen

-------------

1st Quarter (Sept 2013 - Dec 2014 is 32.2 sen (to date)

-------------


Recent Tariff Increase - 0.9 sen

-----------------------

Foreign Exchange Losses (1) Foreign Dominated Loan (2)Coal Imports


RM 3.26 avg vs RM 3.06

------------------------

There will be negative (32.2 sen minus 30.8 sen) for 2nd Quarter 2014...... net negative of 1.4 sen.

------------------------

Tariff increase net effect = -1.4 + 0.9 sen = negative 5 sen

2013 Sale Revenue : RM37.13 bil @0.9sen tariff increase per kWH is only about RM130 million per year. This shows that the recent tariff increase is NEUTRAL for TENAGA. the other 4 sen goes the Govt to cut for Fuel Subsidy. Govt mentioned that the 0.9 sen is for Tenaga CAPEX subsidy.

I still can't figure out why therewere sudden keen interest (since early Dec 2013) and jump in Tenaga price???. Morgan S is absolutely right...unless there is a REAL Tariff increase EPS will surely unsustainable.....i.e P/E will remain at about 14.xxx.

Tenaga is 1.73x Price/book value....RM6.52. Tenaga will soon drop to around RM8.00 but will stabilize at around RM9.30.

Another 30 sen drop tomorrow. Next week drop.... is anyone guess!

Tenaga is crushing down ??? Why

Minus MYR4.3 billion after legal settlement. MAS fair value RM0.0?

Tenaga is too high, well above its book value of RM6.70.
I bought at RM5.55 some 5 years ago I sold at RM11.,90 in early Feb 2014.

http://quotes.wsj.com/MY/XKLS/TENAGA/research-ratings

There be massive compensation from MAS beside insurance for the 239 victim family. if RM1.0 million/victim ... that amount to RM 240 millions.... to added to next quarter loss.

Dead counter... now dead people.... and Dead Airline..... need liquidation to pay Victim's families.

LIMIT DOWN on tuesday and wednesday also!

Who ever take over MAS will have to deal with ;_

1. Loop sided contracts (long term??)
2. Demanding Union
3. ????

Stock to High ???

Russia-Ukraine Conflict..... fuel cost /operation will rise..... more losses for MAS? Any comments?

Due to Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Gas price will increase...... TNB fuel cost will also increase? Any comments??

Next Quarter Loss will widen.... reasons....fuel cost increase.

Pre 1978 all Fifth (OSC/SC/MCE) Form Exam Papers were from Cambridge. Exam answers were sent back to England for marking.

English Football.

1992/93
The competition is formed as the Premier League, 22 teams compete in the first season.... the best and top teams from Division 1.

Malaysian Football.

Then malaysia "ikut sama".... but the quality "tak ikut sama".

Bursa Bull Trader

Well into the Club.

My trading strategy :

1) Low Risk Counters....
2) Patience and Educated Moves.
3) Hit Big when the opportunities comes.
4) Concentrate on few Counters .... easier to monitor.

And money, lot of it (cash) ready when the world market crashed. I started trading in 1997/1998 Asian Currency Crisis.

I am actively monitoring KLSE/KLCI everyday but have not traded since February 2014.

Opportunity will arrive... just need patience.

MAS management and Business Model has to change... otherwise there be no hope. The fixed costs are just too big. Even with 98% Load Factor.... there is no hope of getting the balance sheet into the black.

Must file for Bankruptcy and restart with New Business Model and Cost Structure..... i.e with Clean Sheets.

Sell .... it's all speculative now.

Buyers are PNB & EPF. Foreign Fund Managers have not return..... not anytime soon!

GLCs doing "control" unloading!

Flogging Dead Horse !

seems all have sold their shares!

Share holders will have nothing left.... after paying Bonds & other debts.

Weathering the storm:

NOWHERE CLOSE TO PROFITS: MAS may consider bankruptcy as troubled airlines that did it have re-emerged stronger, say analysts


When a company goes bankrupt, it implies that it has no choice. But in recent cases involving troubled airlines, they did so deliberately and have re-emerged leaner and stronger.

Some analysts feel that Malaysia Airlines (MAS), which reported a net loss of more than a RM1 billion last year, may consider such a route.

They feel that MAS, with a cost disadvantage problem, is nowhere close to making profits, at least not in the next four years.

MIDF head of research Zulkifli Hamzah said MAS will not be profitable in the next two fiscal years as market conditions are against its turnaround plan.

"There is a system-wide degradation of yield base among regional airlines, such as Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways and Garuda Indonesia. On the local front, MAS has to compete with other domestic carriers, which further compresses its domestic yield.

"As long as MAS continues to adopt the strategy of 'load active, yield passive' and expand capacity, losses are inevitable," he told Business Times.

MAS posted a record net loss of RM2.52 billion in 2011. It managed to narrow its losses to RM433 million in 2012.

For fiscal year 2013, it reported losses of RM1.17 billion despite cutting expenses, such as axing some routes and introducing lower fares to improve load.

Its expenditure was up 10 per cent year-on-year to RM14.9 billion due to high fuel prices.

A senior law lecturer and consultant of a legal firm suggested that MAS follows the footsteps of Japan Airlines (JAL) and American Airlines and file for bankruptcy.

He said after filing for bankruptcy, MAS can still operate under a new company and with the same name, if the registrar of companies approves.

American Airlines and its parent company filed for Chapter 11 court protection in the United States Bankruptcy Court in November 2011 to cut costs and unload massive debt built up by years of high fuel prices and labour struggles.

Two years later, they merged with US Airways Group, creating the largest airline in the world.

JAL filed Japan's largest-ever bankruptcy petition by a non-financial company in 2010, kicking off a three-year restructuring that affected more than 15,000 employees.

Under the restructuring, JAL replaced older, less fuel-efficient planes and cut routes. It also received a 600 billion yen (RM19.3 billion) credit line and 730 billion yen in debt waivers.

"MAS will have to start all over, such as re-hiring staff, awarding contracts, as well as leasing and buying planes. MAS has contracts and agreements that expire in a long time. Those are expensive and dragging down its earnings," he said.

Mercury Securities head of research Edmund Tham said MAS will have to find a solution, such as raising more funds, or it will become too dependable on government bailouts.

One company insider said it is possible for MAS to go the JAL and American Airlines way but "there will be a lot of noise from the unions".

He said the airline is unfortunate to inherit costs that it could not change.

"For example, on long-haul flights, MAS has to reserve two seats for the pilots to rest, which may cost the airline up to RM20,000 per flight.

"And while the Department of Civil Aviation allows a cabin crew of four to serve on a B737, MAS has to provide a crew of six as stipulated by the union.

"There are other inherited costs that MAS could not do anything about unless the terms are renegotiated," he added.


Read more: Weathering the storm http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20140222003319/Article/index_html#ixzz2u0esLn7y

Soon, will drop to 13 sen

Share Dumping will get worse tomorrow and next week. Hold on to your money. Tenaga may drop to below 11.00.

EPF and PNB are beginning to unload control amount shares?????

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/46578.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueinvestorresearchklse/46544.jsp

Time to Sell and liquidate profit.

TIME to SELL

Sell now and buy back when low.

See this ... buy Recommendations has drop from 20 to 19 (staring last night).

http://quotes.wsj.com/MY/XKLS/TENAGA/research-ratings

Foreign money will come back if Tenaga become 40% under value (market value). Right now book value is less than RM7.00. Beside, there are countries to put their money.

"The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI's 30 component stocks may be supported by 'invisible hands' to ensure that the index stays above 1,800 points. However, the remaining 70 biggest-capitalised stocks are heading for the danger zone."

Read more: Foreign funds continuing selling mode http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20140210234059/Article/index_html#ixzz2sx9cZrGy' target='_blank'>http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20140210234059/Article/index_html#ixzz2sx9cZrGy

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20140210234059/Article/index_html

iafx, 林俊松

TNB hold USD & Yen loans, beside Coal are imported on USD. Ringgit will depreciate further to RM3.55 before slight recovery at end 2014 , i.e after 4thQ 2014.


The Fuel-Pass through cost does not involves Losses on foreign exchange.

林俊松 ..... please look at under value stocks with huge potential....something like upstart plantations..... with young trees.... price will shot-up at the 7th Year after planting.

I have also upload all 110,000 shares @11.72 last friday, bought @4.98 (RM548K) in Sept , 2011. I made a cool RM735.000.00 29 months investment period.

I am off for long holiday. However will keep watching a Tenaga. May come back if price drop to RM10.00.

Cheers.