Morgan Stanley sees strong refining margins into 2020
in General Energy News 09/09/2017

Lower oil prices, strong demand and limited new refining capacity additions are expected to boost global refining margins to the end of the decade, Morgan Stanley said in a note.
Oil demand growth is expected to reach 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, similar to this year’s expected growth, Morgan Stanley said.
Crude oil distillation unit (CDU) additions are set to increase by 700,000-800,000 bpd next year, leading to a higher crude intake from existing refining capacity and stronger margins as a result.
New regulations aimed at lowering sulphur content in marine fuel from 2020 will further boost margins as demand for gasoil and diesel will grow.
As a result of the stronger outlook for refining, the bank upgraded Spain’s Repsol and Turkish refiner Tupras to ‘overweight’ due to both companies’ strong refining performance.
The bank maintained the existing ‘overweight’ rating for European oil majors Royal Dutch Shell and BP, whose downstream operations represent around 30 percent of cashflow.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ron Bousso; Editing by Edmund Blair)

Why IOI is selling its downstream business for RM3.9 billion now?
Is IOI bullish on upstream oil palm business? If true then good news.

You are right Esos is like a bonus the company P&L will be hit.
Why not if win-win! You need a team to scale the company higher and higher.

Another ex date on 19/9/2017. Great counter because the directors are willing to share. You have quarterly dividend payment, periodic bonus issue and increase in share price ... for those complain about issuance of new share via ESOS.

Today dividend entitlement ex-ed. But price up again to pre-ex level. Great counter!

CPO price up!
IDR strengthens against USD!
Unbilled property sales up!
Borrowing down!

Can't ask for more up except the price :-)

Petrol price up 4 sen! Refined products price up.

Both affordable housing developers but very different. 拍馬屁也不能趕上 Matrix Concept.

Unbilled sales set to go higher. Stay invested!
Melbourne property near completion. Profit will up.

Defending government a defense to the counter?

Still too rich yes too rich the valuation for yield investor.

If he is willing to sell his shares to institutional investors, do you think he will accept to receive lower dividend? After bonus issue he should at least be getting same, if not larger, amount of dividend.

Boring but it is value investing. Underlying assets are getting stronger with the completion of the MRT and the Kajang-Bangi flyover. With the good take-up rate in the TR Residence and North Shah Alam projects, the unbilled property sales are set to go higher. Plantation earnings are also set to go higher with higher CPO prices and higher production. IDR/USD had stabilised at 13,300 level. Its USD borrowings are being liquidated with the free cash flow from plantation. Its value is trailing Matrix with RM300 million gap, will be happy to see the gap narrowing.

Unbilled property sales are set to go higher. Stay tuned.

The disposal of shares is a sign of confidence to the company prospects. The acquirers are institutional investors who have managed to convince Dato Lee to sell down. Dato Lee is confident that his interest will not be diluted as the pie will get bigger. Kudos to Dato Lee!

Sell is always harder than buy.

Where to find.
Yield + growth.
Darling to institutional funds. Hold on and stayed invested.

Sell = Buy
Buy ≠ Sell

http://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesia-palm-oil-output-exports-likely-fell-june/

From the Chairman .. Though our priority is to continue to
supply to the Malaysian market, we are
also evaluating opportunities to enhance
the value of several of our intermediate
product streams to strengthen our position
as a competitive refinery in the region.
This means moving products to the right
customers at the most suitable price,
whilst we exploit the partnership between
SHPC and HRC to capitalise on trade
benefits between Malaysia and China.
In addition, our central location in Asia
provides further options to grow the
business and diversify our product slate.

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/articles/property-news/practical-hillpark/

More meaningful to find out WHO bought the shares sold down by Dato Lee.
Done through market so you need not go through the authorities.
Now who want to strong buy this property counter? He saw what we don not see! Great!

If you are working in a fund house. One moves before the Fund moves.

I've learnt the lesson. It is a journey. Stay invested.

Most institutional funds will not invest and will no longer have mandate to stayed invested.

https://sales.pr1ma.my/property/pr1ma-kajang-selangor-kajang/
Phase 1

First you have too rich the valuation which is set to correct sharply.
Second now that the expectation gap is wider because of the lousy terms signed in the SKIN.
Third you will have hell lots of uncertainties going forward during the implementation stage with the impending 1 billion debts.
Last don't think they can raise the 1 billion debts without raising equity. Creditors are not stupid the terms especially the financing cost will be adverse.

It is likely that this counter no longer meeting the investment criteria of institutional investors.

Q1 good results. Can sustain?

No period is good period no period is bad period.
This shows he is a reliable and respectable man. His doing is sustainable in nature.

So confident he is. Intention to trade shares during the closed period. http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5495405
All good signs.

No need to defend with share buyback. Deploying current resources for better use is more important.

I agree with traderx. Companies deal with government's contracts are hard to predict. These companies have always not been tested commercially .. not until at least with a government that has business acumen.

With the successful launch of Adira Terrace hilltop development in April, the sold out 269 units should have raised the unbilled sales amount for this quarter.

Droidnplay .. if the disposal of shares by Mr Lee to institutional investors could potentially enlarge the pie then why not. I believe it helps to raise the company's profile as well as liquidity of the shares. It is by all means that these investors believe the share price will up further.

Sharing is powerful.

Even at the price now, the valuation is still expensive with more than 100 times PE.
There are very few companies around in the Bursa with this type of valuation.
If you are willing to invest, why not go to tech stocks like Facebook, Alibaba, Google and so on.
There are too many uncertainties during the implementation stage. SKIN is not about high tech but only system reconfiguration and customisation. The more share buyback the more the selling.

You know is falling why not wait for another 20% fall to enjoy cheaper entry.
Never test the depth of the river with both the feet.

So many stuffs on the plate.
They need to borrow why spending money on the share buyback?
They are carrying big project isn't larger capital base is better ... at least to debts rating.
The share buyback definitely reduces its capacity to pay dividend. Good luck all.

PE ratio of more than 100 times. Price you pay today equals to 100 years' profits .. technically.
It is not wise for the company to enter to support the price now, not until a level ..
Good companies usually only enter to support if the price falls more than 20% from it fair value.

The 30% is most puzzling. You are not the first that applied the system. The system already exists for more than a decade. Lots of countries already adopted it. It is more of applying it here and doing certain customisation. The 30% cut does not make business sense at all.

Surely this transaction dents the credibility of the entire management team especially the MD.

PE too high to justify its valuation. It will normalise to a level ..

After you've have spent the 1 bil, the current system becomes obsolete cannot counter new security threats posed by advanced technology and new types of crimes. Then the government says you need to invest a further 500 mil. Si kiau kiau.

Nobody and no company will do this kind of deal.
What concession! Up calculate down calculate left right calculate also not sound.
No return for 8 years yet required to assume all risks.

The company to raise 1 billion for the SKIN is almost equivalent to its market cap now.
And the company proudly says I assume all the risk.
And ridiculous from the cash flow perspective.

.... only if can hold more than 5 year

If not mistaken the MD said the Government has zero risk.
Means you have all the risk.
What a deal !?!?

1 billion investment.
294 mil proceeds one year starting from 2022.
Free 2018 to 2021.
So your investment cost only fully recovered after 7 years (and execution risk and interest cost have not been factored in).
The company only get +positive cash flow from SKIN from year 8 onwards.
Hmm ... better put money in FD first.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/18/prestariang-secures-rm3pt5bil-concession-to-implement-skin/

Very positive to value of the assets of MKH
1. Already operational MRT line to Kajang
2. Already open new flyover linking Bangi and Kajang 2.
Still pending completion; expected this year
3. New Kajang 2 KTM station

http://www.thestar.com.my/metro/community/2017/07/18/new-flyover-in-kajang-to-open-on-thursday/