基本面价值投资是王道。我把股票投资当成长久的事业，会学习 Charlie Munger 说的，大钱之所以能赚多是等来的

我看好Allianz 会在今年年尾接近RM16, 没有买的人真的要快了

my funds used for investment ALL IN only two counters. You can imagine the quantities. BAT and Allianz as these two are very undervalued and they are slightly safer and I treat them as Sanctuary when US market is unstable right now

我走重仓路线，基本面价值投资。

Aim for RM16 by end of year 2021 and hope for Special Dividend. MCO during 2021, less claim and higher profit. Plus repricing in year 2021 will be the catalyst to push up the price to RM16.

Re-opening of economic activities means less default of premium and continuity of payment for insurance premium with higher consciousness for the need of insurance after this pandemic should be a driver for higher revenue and profit in upcoming years.

Stay tuned for good and positive news.

还没有买的人动作快了咯. Allianz 就飞了。我有很大的信心明天会继续飞，继续起价。

Hoseh 了咯，我等Special Dividend.真的飞了，没有骗人的啊

我正面分析了，年底或接近分股息的时候，我看好破RM16

the price is surging now as per my expectation when the price plummeted to below RM13

I expect Special Dividend and expect price to break or near to RM16 soon

记得记得，基本面价值投资路线不可以追高啊

凡事跟着自己设立的risk appetite

The engine has been started, today broke RM13.00 point.

Aim for RM16 by end of year 2021 and hope for Special Dividend.

MCO during 2021, less claim and higher profit. Plus repricing in year 2021 will be the catalyst to push up the price to RM16.

Re-opening of economic activities means less default of premium and continuity of payment for insurance premium with higher consciousness for the need of insurance after this pandemic should be a driver for higher revenue and profit in upcoming years.

Stay tuned for good and positive news.

Disclaimer: - Buy or Sell or Hold is your own decision and responsibility. The information above is only for sharing as it is my personal view or opinion; the above information shall not be construed or deemed as an advice for any investment or divestment decision.

Hoseh already.....

I am waiting for BAT to rise up to near to RM20 by end of this year

I could foresee Government to regulate Vape and E-Cigarette

Reduce tax on tobacco which will eventually result in higher tax revenue for LHDN.

BAT will be going to RM20 very soon

my 2 cents

Hoseh already.....

I am waiting for BAT to rise up to near to RM20 by end of this year

没升到16块，别轻举妄动！我一直相信着，今年的目标16块！再给点力量。。。加油！

I believe with the repricing of insurance premium in year 2021, the TP for Allianz could go up to RM16 by end of this year

Something to ponder why EPF keeps on buying and no selling at all.

Add oil!

Aim Lower Price, if possible aim to buy only below Intrinsic Value (IV)

and if possible, try to buy at the lowest point which is also known as the Price for Margin of Safety (PMOS) , i.e. less 25% of the IV, this will serve as a buffer to cushion for market fluctuation

Benjamin Graham's method is always the best way

It is proven that I used this method in Tunepro, Thong Guan, MBSB and BAT.

Now Allianz.

Value Investment Based on Fundamental Analysis is the way I have adopted since beginning of my investment journey

To be honest, I have not made any losses at all this year when I start to master the Great Grand Sifu Technic.

I need to admit I could not be imitating 100% the method adopted by Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet or Charlie Munger.

But, I adjust and fine tune my investment way to be closer to their ways. I find that my risk has been reduced significantly and higher ROI in shorter time is the best evidence for using their ways.

There is an inspirational quote from Charlie Munger: The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting. ... While waiting for others to fear, buying well-chosen stocks will bring “big money” to us easier.

I bought at price below RM13

TP as follows:-

Pessimistic - RM14.15

Neutral - RM15.17

Optimistic - RM16.08

I will keep monitoring and reading all news related to global econ

钱少也能赚钱，我帮助一个刚毕业出来不久的散户在短时间赚取超过25%的回酬

Tunepro

真的开心，因为她本钱少，但是她敢敢相信我。

在0.400 敢敢重仓Tunepro

然后套利在0.505

才两个月半，就套利了赚取大约26%

我真开心帮助晚生赚取一些零用钱。

虽然她只是请我一些小吃我也很感恩，很开怀，因为她相信我，让我往后更加有信心帮助更多的散户

You ppl gonna know, her bank account only has RM15,000 and she trusted me to invest ALL in Tunepro....As i told her best and ideal price is RM0.370 but RM0.400 is still safe

All IN 重仓

这个Tunepro 是保险公司，之前专注旅游保险。自从从AXA 保险挖来了新的老总Rohit 公司的业务已经多元化了，除了旅游保险，也有其他的商业保险。这个counter 开番是迟早。 毕竟旅游保险越来越多国家make it compulsory, 我读过去年Rohit 和其他高层呈现的business proposal ，我乐见其成。

基于我太注重0.37 cents 也就是老总的esos ex price 我在0.385/0.390 错过了买入这颗钻石的机会。

我现在只能等待market correction

Tunepro 是黑马

hi Papayashot,

both are good at different aspects,

I earned from both shares and taught newbie to earn not quite bad return....

Tunepro I did earn from last time early of the year.

Now I am waiting for Tunepro to undergo market correction

陆续有来，会慢慢升到15-16块。年底来了，经济开放，业绩不会输到哪里。而且Allianz 一直有epf 支持，一直买。

加上Allianz可能会拿到ESG高分。这是良心企业。公司不会亏待股东们的

这个Tunepro 是保险公司，之前专注旅游保险。自从从AXA 保险挖来了新的老总Rohit 公司的业务已经多元化了，除了旅游保险，也有其他的商业保险。这个counter 开番是迟早。 毕竟旅游保险越来越多国家make it compulsory, 我读过去年Rohit 和其他高层呈现的business proposal ，我乐见其成。

基于我太注重0.37 cents 也就是老总的esos ex price 我在0.385/0.390 错过了买入这颗钻石的机会。

我现在只能等待market correction

Tunepro 是黑马

@Loy Loy Cheong,

It is okay you voice out or comment on the potential poor management of MBSB. To me, I think MBSB Management is lacking creativity and aggressiveness.

Hopefully, you bought at lower price so that you could sell at a profit.

I have been waiting for the price to come to RM0.55 (the best price in accordance with my risk and profit appetite).

Maybe different people different measurement and appetite.

I hope the price can go down further to RM0.55. If not please plummet to RM0.580 like the same in early of July 2021. I had already made 2 rounds of profit when I acquired MBSB in end of Jan 2021 and another time in early July 2021.

My personal opinion, for short or mid term trader, buying at relatively lower price than this current price of RM0.605 and sell when getting return around 10-20% is good enough.

For value or Long Term Investors, current price is considered an undervalued price. Holding power is the key point.

My two cents.

@Kitty Kitty,

The reason is very simple. This stock is very much Undervalued.

Despite difficult time in year 2020, the result of Allianz Malaysia was still impressive.

1) Operating Revenue -- Increased 7.4%
2) Gross Written premium -- Increased 7.8%
3) Total Assets -- Increased 11.1%
4) Profit Before Tax -- Increased 5.4%
5) Shareholders' Funds -- Increased 9.7%
6) Basic Earnings Per Share -- Increased 11.6%

Intrinsic Value ("IV") which was calculated based on readily available information as of 3 Dec 2020 = RM20.71

The above IV was before the final and audited result for FY2020.

Indeed, EPF has been collecting from time to time.

In my humble opinion the current price of RM12.76 is very much Undervalued. I feel that it is a hidden diamond which a lot of investors might overlook.

Papayashot,


I promote Allianz because I do not like those so called Expert in the market. Quietly bought and when the price is high only share or recommend the shares to ppl

I would like to share good stocks and let's earn together.

For long term or value investors, can hold long term no problem. I believe Allianz can be a multibagger.

In term of ESG Compliance, I also believe Allianz has outperformed many blue chips.

For mid or short term traders, I believe as long as your TP is not too high, you can always take profit by selling earlier than EPF and other institutional investors.

Do not forget those Institutional Investors like EPF, they cannot simply sell at lower price because they have a target to meet in order to achieve return desired by its capital providers like EPF members and other stakeholders.

The engine has been restarted.

I am very positive and keen that share price of Allianz will be skyrocketing very soon due to

1) Positive sentiment in the market (re-opening of economic activities which also means more business activities that will lead to more potential business in insurance as well);

2) Political stability (as PH has promised not to have any election until mid of year 2022);

3) Public awareness of the importance of having health and life insurance during and post pandemic; and

4) High likelihood of favorable Budget 2022 that will be beneficial to Malaysian and business so as to help and speed up recovery of economy

To me, all bad or negative conditions had already passed, which has been evidenced in the Share Price plummeted during the 52 weeks or the year at RM12.48.

Good news will keep coming soon and personally I feel that if you wanted to make money whether on a short, mid or long term, now is a right timing. Share price of Allianz below RM13 is still considered low and cheap comparing to the Intrinsic Value of the Share.

Do not forget also about Window Dressing period which is likely to come in December 2021. I have already placed all 100% of my second pool of funds in Allianz and wait for the price to go up gradually from now to December 2021.

if you are aware of the recent institutional acquisition of Allianz, you will notice that the great "Whale" or EPF has been collecting Allianz without any disposals since mid of year 2021.

What are you waiting for? Collect now before it is too late. A lot of retail investors make losses in stock trading because they only bought the shares when the price had been overvalued or when institutional investors like EPF is getting ready to dump the share or they only bought the shares when the share price had been increased tremendously. Remember, one advice, buy only when not many people are buying. I bought and collected Allianz Shares on dip.

Disclaimer: - Buy or Sell or Hold is your own decision and responsibility. The information above is only for sharing as it is my personal view or opinion; the above information shall not be construed or deemed as an advice for any investment or divestment decision.

Personally, I believe the existing price is acceptable based on my risk appetite.

Imagine when near to year end and when economy is re-opened soon.

The above Youtube sharing was done by my High School Super Senior in year 2020.

I am greedy when everyone is fearful...............

The following is a sharing by my High School Super Senior, Dr. Tan Chong Koay who is also a founder of Pheim Asset Management (Asia) Pte Ltd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=NAxzOiDVILc&feature=youtu.be

You may find his background from the following link

http://www.pheim.com.sg/about_us/about_us.html

https://ycmylife.blogspot.com/2021/09/allianz-1163.html?m=1

Read this article for further information

This is really a hidden gem and that why EPF has been collecting non stop

Tomorrow I believe BAT will go up again.

Market sentiment was not very good in last week.

No need to worry. BAT is another hidden gem.

Undervalued stock.

Hopefully, tomorrow Allianz can go up to at least RM13.00.

Allianz is a hidden gem but why not many retail investors want to buy and EPF keep on collecting Allianz at this very much undervalued price.

Hope for the best.

I am very very optimistic and confident in Allianz Malaysia.

Despite difficult time in year 2020, the result of Allianz Malaysia was still impressive.

1) Operating Revenue -- Increased 7.4%
2) Gross Written premium -- Increased 7.8%
3) Total Assets -- Increased 11.1%
4) Profit Before Tax -- Increased 5.4%
5) Shareholders' Funds -- Increased 9.7%
6) Basic Earnings Per Share -- Increased 11.6%

Intrinsic Value ("IV") which was calculated based on readily available information as of 3 Dec 2020 = RM20.71

The above IV was before the final and audited result for FY2020.

Indeed, EPF has been collecting from time to time.

In my humble opinion the current price of RM12.76 is very much Undervalued. I feel that it is a hidden diamond which a lot of investors might overlook.

Some argued that the price is too high. Remember, Price is what you paid, Value is what you get!

With rapid vaccination and gradual re-opening of economic activities, I strongly believe Allianz will be able to attract more sales soon while retaining existing customers.

The ongoing plan for the 3-month moratorium interest-free plan is good for those who are really in financial difficulty. They could enroll in moratorium and defer the loan payment but at the same time use that fund to continue settle other obligations which includes but is not limited to payment of insurance premium.

Disclaimer: - Buy or Sell or Hold is your own decision and responsibility. The information above is only for sharing and shall not be deemed as an advice for any investment or divestment decision.

@kentnherman

Please turn to Page 113 for the top 30 shareholders.

As at 12 April 2021,

1) Allianz SE --- 65.11%
2) EPF --- 3.83%

and so on

@Pinky

Wow you also hold Allianz.

We have same portfolio for Long Term Investment, BAT and Allianz

I am very positive in Allianz. As of 10 September 2021, the lowest point is RM12.48 and the highest point is RM15.38. As such, I personally opine that any price below RM13 is considered a good entry price. Remember, you can start collect on dip.

The reason for the recent decrease in price, in my personal opinion, might be due to 2 main reasons which are the (1) political instability; and (2) pandemic which creates negative sentiment in the market.

Allianz is a solid counter for capital appreciation and for mid to long term investment.

As of 6 September 2021, EPF own directly 11,043,900 shares (6.2220%)

Do not worry as EPF has been acquiring non stop as follows:-

03/09/2021 --- acquired 50,500
25/08/2021 --- acquired 15,200
20/08/2021 --- acquired 47,500
18/08/2021 --- acquired 8,600
17/08/2021 --- acquired 21,000
16/08/2021 --- acquired 3,700
13/08/2021 --- acquired 90,500
09/08/2021 --- acquired 4,500
04/08/2021 --- acquired 11,000
03/08/2021 --- acquired 12,300
30/07/2021 --- acquired 2,100
28/07/2021 --- acquired 32,000

Personally, I think Allianz's price might be going up very soon due to (1) higher vaccination rate for herd immunity; and (2) re-opening of economic activities soon.

Taking into consideration solid fundamental of Allianz with strong and healthy financial position, I have no doubt on Allianz's price going up really soon. I do hope that by end of September 2021, the price will fly above RM13 and slowly go up to RM14 and above.

My two cents. This is only my personal opinion for sharing purpose. Any investment decision is your own responsibility.

@SandCoffee

PMOS = Price for Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is a principle of investing in which an investor only purchases securities when their market price is significantly below their intrinsic value. In other words, when the market price of a security is significantly below your estimation of its intrinsic value, the difference is the margin of safety.

Let's us welcome out new CEO.

Closed at 14.06 on 30/8/2021
Opened at 14.20 on 1/9/2021
Highest at 14.30 on 1/9/2021
Currently at 14.28 on 1/9/2021 at 9.05 AM (Malaysia Time Zone)

By the way, I am very optimistic about the upcoming Budget which might be favourable to BAT's business and future development.

Huat Chai everyone

@fablanave @SandCoffee

Not to forget, a very important point is

- ENTRY PRICE.

I always ensure that my investment entry price is

- far lower than the Intrinsic Value and if can, only acquires share at price near to PMOS (THE BEST option)

- lower than the Intrinsic Value but is not 25% lower than the Intrinsic Value (NORMAL option)

For price higher than the Intrinsic Value, it is very very UNLIKELY I will acquire as I would like to MAXIMISE Return + Buffer for Price Fluctuation

and MINIMISE Risk

@fablanave

I am not a guru. I am a normal person who has done due diligence on the investees and has put in place sound risk management when it comes to investment.

Still, there is a steep learning curve for me.

Please let me know if you have feedback on how to make big money.

Let's prosper together. Okay. Hope that everyone could make money during this pandemic.

We help ourselves when we could not place high reliance on the government solely.

@SandCoffee

Thank you for your concern.

There is always a risk there but as long as I could manage it at a level that is acceptable by me and matches my risk appetite. Why not?

Contingent plan if the market did not go according to my plan is that I will switch my strategy from Short/Mid Term to Long Term Investment.

Intrinsic value of BAT is higher than current price of RM14.02. BAT is a blue chip counter with strong fundamental. Upon formalisation or enactment of law or regulation in Vape and E-Cigarette, I could foresee there is no issue for BAT to become a multibagger stock.

I am optimistic that BAT could go up to RM30 in 1-2 years time if I have been compelled to hold for long term.

Hopefully, everyone here could make a beautiful ROI from BAT.

Let's welcome the new CEO later by hoping that there is/are operators to push the price of BAT up.

New CEO will be on board w.e.f. 1 September 2021.

Let's welcome the new CEO by hoping that BAT share price will spike on this Wednesday.

I am very very confident that Mr. Nadel Louay Salem will bring BAT to next level soon!

Good luck all and Happy National Day to all.

@Lanmum

FYI, now I am holding a lot of BAT. 100% of my fund is allocated and invested in BAT.

During early July, I acquired MBSB when its price decreased to 0.58/0.585 and I subsequently sold all on 26 August 2021 when the price rose to RM0.65/0.655. Again I put all eggs in one basket.

My journey from 1 Jan 2021 till 30 August 2021 is exciting yet rewarding. My total Return on Investment (ROI) in just 8 months during year 2021 is 36.17%.

My watch lists comprise mostly 2nd Tier stocks although also have blue chips.

1) Alliance Bank
2) CIMB Bank
3) Thong Guan
4) Cocoaland
5) Asiafile
6) MBSB
7) Tunepro
8) Muda
9) Hexza
10) BAT
11) Tongher
12) Uchitech
13) Sunway - PA - identify opportunity for Arbitrage

To me, investment and trading need to be strategised. They should not be a 1 way fit all method. My strategy has always been assessed and re-assessed to manage my investment risk according to my evaluation of value, risks and profit appetite.

Again, it depends on your own strategy and evaluation of risk, value and profit appetite. Use your own method to maximise ROI to make money is the way!

Last but not least, hope that everyone who are BAT shareholders can continue to prosper and grow together with BAT. All the best.

Disclaimer: The above is only a sharing and not to suggest any investment decision. Remember, BUY or SELL or HOLD at your own discretion and you are responsible for your own money.

@Chong Kong Hui

Good luck to you. I believe for FA Investor like you, holding for Long Term should not be a problem when the future performance (1-2 years later) could help to improve the Intrinsic Value which will then reflect in the increase of share price. For Long Term Investors, Thong Guan definitely is one of the options.

To me, I switched to short term trading after so many events happened from Biden's victory, Covid-19 worsening conditions, Malaysia's political instability, US Market and etc.

To me, I have many options. So I will opt to choose the best out of the best.

FYI, now I am holding a lot of BAT. 100% of my fund is allocated and invested in BAT.

During early July, I acquired MBSB when its price decreased to 0.58/0.585 and I subsequently sold all on 26 August 2021 when the price rose to RM0.65/0.655. Again I put all eggs in one basket.

My journey from 1 Jan 2021 till 30 August 2021 is exciting yet rewarding. My total Return on Investment (ROI) in just 8 months during year 2021 is 36.17%.

My watch lists comprise mostly 2nd Tier stocks although also have blue chips.

1) Alliance Bank
2) CIMB Bank
3) Thong Guan
4) Cocoaland
5) Asiafile
6) MBSB
7) Tunepro
8) Muda
9) Hexza
10) BAT
11) Tongher
12) Uchitech
13) Sunway - PA - identify opportunity for Arbitrage

That why, I have nothing to hide.

To me, investment and trading need to be strategised. They should not be a 1 way fit all method. My strategy has always been assessed and re-assessed to manage my investment risk according to my evaluation of value, risks and profit appetite.

The reason why I said the current price of Thong Guan is overvalued because I factored in Bonus Issue in year 2020 and frequent ESOS which will ultimately dilute the value of each share.

Again, it depends on your own strategy and evaluation of risk, value and profit appetite. Use your own method to maximise ROI to make money is the way!

Last but not least, hope that everyone who is Thong Guan shareholders can continue to prosper and grow together with Thong Guan. All the best.

Disclaimer: The above is only a sharing and not to suggest any investment decision. Remember, BUY or SELL or HOLD at your own discretion and you are responsible for your own money.

@ Pinky

@ LossAversion

You people should know when I commented on 01/07/2021 2:14 PM

@Chong Kong Hui

You also commented and agreed that everyone has own exit price. Refer back your comment on 01/07/2021 5:39 PM

To me, nothing to Hide .....

Maxpowar,

I have nothing to hide. Please relook my comments back in June 2021. I did tell everyone here that based on my analysis and risk appetite due to

1) US monetary and economic policies with my worry on collapse of US market;
2) Political instability;
3) Failure of the country to control Covid-19 and hence the delay in re-opening Economic activities

I have decided to change from Long Term to Mid Term Trading.

I did sell in June when the price was at RM2.69 and at that time I had already taken profit of return of 25% . At the same time, I did tell people like Pinky, LossAversion and some people here that I switched to Short Term Trading and sold already.

Nothing to hide. Investment and stock trading should not be rigid and strategy should be re-monitored and re-assessed from time to time based on conditions.

FYI, I switched to BAT for short term trading from June - July 2021 and made profit again.

Then in July 2021 I bought again MBSB at 0.585 and sold at 0.645 on 26 August 2021.

Nothing to hide. Now I bought BAT again.

Investment strategy is different does not mean I have made a shit on Tguan.

You do not make me laugh non stop. When Analysts set BUY CALL at TP 3.70 and everyone who trusts them I would say Good Luck to all of you.

Based on my experience dealing with most of the Analyst, I knew how they did their works and not only that, it is also proven by a low profile Investment Guru, Gan Kok Ann on his recent book. You could ask around whoever read his book will know.

To me, Tguan is really a good stock, and for whoever bought lower than current price, then okay. For those chasing high, then it is not really a good investment decision based on my experience.

In short,

Long Term -- you can hold for more than 1-2 years regardless of whether US market is collapse, then go ahead as Tguan is a good counter.

Mid or Short Term -- Entry price is important and you need to monitor and take profit as and when the condition mandate you to do so. because probably your holding power is not strong or you do not want to incur opportunity cost for holding too long.

Definitely, I will buy more again when the price is go back to around RM2 - RM2.10

Disclaimer: This is only my personal opinion and view for sharing purpose. Your investment decision should be done at your own discretion and you yourself should be responsible for your own decision.

Tguan has been overvalued very much. Most investors will take profit as a precaution to anticipate potential collapse of US market soon. I will definitely buy again but not at this price. I will consider only when the price is RM2.10 and below

30 August 2021 will be the last day before BAT-C3 expires.

Based on my sensitivity and scenario based analysis, so long as the mother share price be reduced to RM14.15 (with deviation plus minus 1 - 1.5%), and assuming those warrant holders who have been holding warrant at price around average of 0.210, with the exercise value of RM11 and exercise ratio of 15, at present price of RM14.02, the issuer is considered making money already from warrant holder.

Under pessimistic scenario, the price will plummet to the most RM13.94 on the last day, i.e. 30 August 2021. Not to forget, the above average price of warrant at 0.210 is set very prudently, the price might be even higher when the mother price was slightly higher than RM14.02 and before the Dividends.

Mr. Nadel Louay Salem will be on board w.e.f. 1 September 2021. Operators and Syndicates will definitely be more than happy to give him a welcoming gift by pushing up the mother share price on 1 September 2021 and maybe for 1-2 weeks temporarily. New appointment of CEO will trigger positive sentiment which in turn enhance market confidence and this will reflect in BAT share price to spike w.e.f. 1 September 2021.

I believe Mr. Nadel Louay Salem will continue to bring BAT to next level very very soon. RM20 by end of year 2021. I look forwards to seeing recovery of economy and control and containment of Covid-19 which will then speed up formalisation of regulation for Vape and E-Cigarette which is beneficial to BAT and society as a whole.

Stay Positive in BAT and Quarter 3 result should be very impressive as well!

Pinky,

My sensitivity test or analysis is quite accurate

I did the analysis in early June 2021. I can share you my analysis if you need

Trust me Malaysia need to attract more foreign investment plus need to earn more tax from BAT

If BAT suffered, Malaysia will also suffer.

Foreign Fund will be on the way to come in again to this BAT.

Look at Thong Guan and you will know what I meant.

These two days, volume is high due to retail investors and importantly Foreign Funds are coming back

Pinky,

Recently, I have been very busy doing several M&A projects. There are fewer opportunities for foreigner to invest in Malaysia's business after this pandemic. Earning money from M&A projects is pretty fast. So I am very very busy.

BAT is a solid counter. Do not worry so much.

Just hold this BAT for mid term like 3-6 months. Should not be an issue.

Have you seen BAT substantial shareholders' listing as of 22 Feb 2021?

Look! Number 5 Tan Yu Yeh and Number 10 Tan Yu Wei both are bosses from Mr. DIY

Why did they dump so much in BAT?

I am very very OPTIMISTIC in BAT.

I am preparing to collect more if BAT price decreased further

On top of this price fluctuation, one of the reasons is because of Call warrant BAT-C3. I have already done a sensitivity test. The recent plummet in price is very common. Do not worry.

Just hold for LT, you will be rewarded for sure.

RM30 should not be a problem in 1-3 years time

Be positive and BAT is always a choice to hold long term for investment

This is a cash cow. No need worry

Pinky, how do you find the dividend of 24 cents... Not bad right.. The result is not bad especially during this pandemic

Just hold and I believe bat is still a safe counter..

Just hold to earn capital gain while waiting for future development in bat

now more and more states are opening their economic activities, as they are in phase 2 of recovery plan.

Parliament will be reconvened end of July.

Will expect more and more regulations be debated and approved which will bring positive sentiment.

Hopefully regulation on E cigarettes will be formalised asap

Quarter two result would be impressive and I foresee higher dividend to be declared soon around end July or early August

Please buy and collect more before the price go beyond 15/16 ringgit

Hi all,

Have been very busy for my works. Now WFH is not very efficient and effective as I every few days in interval need to have video call with my staffs.

I have been busy promoting BAT and helping others who bought Serba Dinamik in understanding the current situation.

Tired.

yoyo, I dump Thong Guan when the price was on downtrend. I sold at RM2.69. Will definitely buy back Thong Guan when it touches RM2.00 or below again.

Now BAT and other good counter like Tongher and Alliance bank.

Waiting patiently.

UPDATE ON SERBA DINAMIK IN RELATION TO APPOINTMENT OF INDEPENDENT REVIEWER

Many retail investors who are not from accounting or audit background may not understand and differentiate between Audit and Review. I write in so as to provide my insights based on my many years of professional practices involving audit, assurance, consulting and advisory.

Disclaimer 1: Please note that the following details are only for education purpose and shall always not to be deemed as an investment advice.

Disclaimer 2: Please also note that the actual independent review works which might be carried out by a professional firm are subject to the review job scopes stipulated under the engagement letter which will in the future be signed between the review service provider and Serba Dinamik. The following information or my sharing is a very standardized information which you could get from International Standards on Review Engagements (ISRE 2400) for the review engagement and International Standards on Auditing (ISA) for the audit engagement.

A review provides limited assurance rather than a reasonable amount of assurance, so in simple terms, a review reports on the plausibility of the financial statements.

An audit is the examination of the financial reports for an entity in order to determine whether the information presented reflects the financial position of the entity at a given date. An audit aims to identify material misstatements in the financial statements and includes, but is not limited to, misstatements resulting from fraud where reasonable suspicion exists. An audit provides a reasonable level of assurance in the form of a positive statement such as ‘presents fairly’ or ‘presents a true and fair view’. An audit does not give absolute assurance (as this would require testing every transaction which is impractical) but is the highest level of assurance provided by auditors. It involves detailed testing such as substantiating balances and evidence gathering.

A review on the other hand provides only limited assurance. The opinion given would be in a form such as ‘we have not become aware of any matter’ that the statements are not in accordance with the required framework. A review involves less detail than an audit and involves more enquiry of management/staff and analytical review work rather than substantiating balances. A review does not need to be carried out by a registered company auditor but their greater experience in this area typically means better value is delivered from the review.

Example 1:-
During my tenure with one of the Big 4, I worked on a review engagement by reviewing the control in payroll cycle and to review the accuracy and occurrence of payroll expenses and disbursement.

Conclusion given: …………. We have not become aware of any matter which causes us to believe that the payroll…………… (I only review based on samples and as long as I do not get anything goes wrong, clean review conclusion will be given)

Audit:-
Assurance type- Reasonable Assurance
Nature of work- Detailed testing and substantiating balances
Example of conclusion- “the financial statements present a true and fair view”

Review:-
Assurance type- Limited Assurance
Nature of work- Enquiries and analysis, less detailed
Example of conclusion- “we have not become aware of any matter to cause us to believe that the financial statements do not present a true and fair view”

Normal practice:- Review work tend to be giving more on Negative Assurance under normal circumstances. Negative assurance is a determination by an auditor that a particular set of facts is believed to be accurate since no contrary evidence has been found to dispute them.

Please collect more before the new Quarter result is released. I am very very optimistic and positive towards the development and update by the BAT HQ.

Consolidating International volume share leadership in Modern Oral, with strong Velo
volume share growth in the US. Modern Oral Category share of Modern Oral in Top 5
markets reached 40.2% April YTD up 3.4 ppts vs. FY 2020

o Velo volume share in the US up strongly by 6 ppts from December to reach an April share
of 14.6% in a competitive market
o On track for unconstrained US production capacity around mid-year
o In Sweden and Norway modern oral category volume share of 57.6% and 63.3% drove total
oral category volume share of 6.7% and 17.2%, up 1.8 ppts and 2.0 ppts YTD v FY20
respectively

Continued value and volume share gains in combustibles, with strong pricing partially offset
by geographic mix

o Group value and volume share both up 10bps YTD. Group FY cigarette volume expected
to be ahead of the industry, with FY industry volume expected to be down c.3%
o We continue to extract costs, rationalise, and simplify our combustible portfolio and
Strategic Brands represent around two thirds of our volume
o Volume recovery and share growth in key Emerging Markets, including Bangladesh,
Pakistan and Vietnam
o Expected strong constant currency revenue growth in the US driven by strong price mix,
and value share up 40bps YTD, with premium share up 40bps YTD, driven by Natural
American Spirit and Newport, reflecting no accelerated downtrading in our portfolio
o The US industry volume outlook remains unclear, due to continuing macro-economic and
fiscal uncertainties

Building on our strong ESG foundations we are creating shared value for all our
stakeholders, recent highlights include:

o In 2020, we set ambitious environmental targets3
, including achieving carbon neutrality
across our own operations by 2030, and for our tobacco supply chain to be free of child
labour by 2025.
o In 2021, we set additional stretching targets, which include achieving carbon neutrality
across our value chain by 2050 and 100% renewable electricity in operations sites by 2030
o We have a substantial body of scientific data for our reduced risk products2 across each
category and look forward to publishing our glo 180 day study in July, following very
encouraging results from our 90 day study.
o Our work has continued to receive external recognition this year, including Refinitiv
ranking BAT as the third highest ESG-rated FTSE100 company, the Financial Times
naming us as Climate and Diversity leaders, and being recognised as a Global Top
Employer for the fourth year in a row by the Top Employers Institute.

FY 2021 expectations:
o Upgraded constant currency revenue growth of above 5%, ahead of our 3-5% guidance
o Mid-single digit adjusted diluted constant currency EPS growth
o Strong operating cashflow conversion in excess of 90%
o Leverage reducing to around c.3x Adjusted Net debt4
/ Adjusted EBITDA5 by year end

Driven by:
o Accelerating acquisition of non-combustible product consumers1
, up +1.4m to 14.9m in Q1,
with our New Category products now sold in 74 markets across 53 countries
o Continued acceleration of New Category volume and revenue growth, with market share6
gains across all three New Categories in all key markets
o Further increased New Category investment, weighted to H1, capitalising on our good
momentum
o Strong combustibles pricing and robust volume
o Negative geographic mix driven by a continuing recovery in Emerging Markets
o No expected recovery in Global Travel Retail until 2022
o A robust US performance, driven by New Category growth and strong combustible pricing
o Associate income reflecting the impact of the COVID environment in India on ITC, given our
share of results are reported one quarter in arrears
o Operating cash conversion weighted to the second half due to the phasing of Excise and
MSA payments relative to the prior year
o Translation headwind of c.-8% on adjusted diluted EPS growth, and a transactional headwind
of c.-2% on adjusted profit, for both H1 and FY 2021, applying current foreign exchange spot
rates7

Trading update detail: Strong share6 growth in each New Category across key markets

Vuse approaching global leadership in vapour reaching 31.4% category value share in Top 5
vapour markets April YTD, up 5.9 ppts vs FY 2020

o Vuse independently confirmed as the first global carbon neutral vape brand8
o Vuse/Vype growing value share in all Top 5 markets and continuing to close the gap on
global leadership
o Vuse/Vype brand migrations in Top 5 markets to be completed by the end of H1
o Continued volume share leadership of devices in all Top 5 markets
o Vuse now leads the category in 16 states in the US, with a total YTD Vuse family value
share of 29.8%; Vuse Alto value share is up 6.9 ppts v FY20 to 27.2% YTD

glo achieving strong volume share growth in ENA driven by Hyper, with continued positive
volume share momentum in Japan. glo’s THP category volume share of consumables in the
Top 9 THP markets reached 16.2% April YTD, up 2.9 ppts vs. FY 2020

o In Japan, glo nicotine (FMC+THP) volume share grew +80bps v FY20 to reach YTD share of
6.2%. Whilst volume growth continued to be strong, revenue in H1 is expected to be
impacted by increased consumer acquisition investment, and partial absorption of excise
also due to the disproportionate impact of the excise harmonisation on our products
o In ENA, which represents more than half of global THP industry volume, glo Hyper drove
strong volume share growth, reaching a glo YTD nicotine (FMC+THP) volume share of 1.7%
in Russia, Ukraine 2.7%, Romania 1.5% and 1.4% in Italy, in April
o glo Hyper is now launched in 18 of 21 glo markets with further expansion planned in H2
2021

Please collect more before the new Quarter result is released. I am very very optimistic and positive towards the development and update by the BAT HQ.


Transcript - 2021 First Half Pre-Close Trading
Update Q&A Conference call June 8, 2021

https://www.bat.com/group/sites/UK__9D9KCY.nsf/vwPagesWebLive/DOC3RN7L/$file/2021_First_Pre-close_Trading_Update_Transcript.pdf

Trading update - ahead of closed period commencing 28 June 2021

https://www.bat.com/group/sites/UK__9D9KCY.nsf/vwPagesWebLive/DOC3RN7L/$file/2021_First_Pre-close_Trading_Update.pdf