Murali, different people has different risk appetite. Risk is always very subjective, depending on character as well as knowledge.

KYY justify VS to be cheap at RM 4.14. Perhaps he only looked at the last 2 quarters. Perhaps he believe that last 2 quarters result would be able to sustain, or perhaps he believe that the solar business would hit a jackpot.

OTB justify VS to a buy at RM 3.5. If you read his post in VS you would know that he arrive at RM 3.3 to RM 3.5 through technical analysis. Why OTB does not recommend buy RM 4.14 ? Could be due to the fact that he is more risk adverse than KYY, or perhaps he prefers more quarterly result to confirm the turn around ? Or it could be that he has been looking at VS chart for a long while at the range of RM 1.8 and RM 2.4 and the anchoring effect has caused him to feel that RM 4.14 is expensive. We never know. He probably don't know either !

I believe it is fine KYY share his view. Whatever his agenda behind, we will never find out. Even if his objective is to unload VS, he might make a mistake selling a star too soon.
When a blogger shares his view with noble intention, not necessary that will benefit the followers.
When a blogger shares his view with ill intention, not necessary that will harm the followers.
As long as he is sharing facts, I believe it is ok. For people who follow his call and get burnt, they need to look at themselves. Final decision on investment is always our own.

On the other hand, if you feel what KKY recommend is dangerous, just continue to post to warn others. The request to remove his post and leave the forum is just too much.

Posted by truthseeker1 > Feb 22, 2015 03:40 PM | Report Abuse 

Don't cheat us. The blog started today at RM5.58. If he bought at RM3.50 meaning he profit RM2.08, a good margin for him to sell in huge quantity(million shares) to us buying tomorrow.

He recommended latitud in investalks gathering in december. Whether or not he purchase latitud i have no idea but rumours as early as november says that he had 2 million share.check nov latitud post.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/7006.jsp

I have been following latitud for a year. EPS of RM1 is far too optimistic. In fact looking at past 3 quarters my guess is that latitud is already at full capacity. Latitud is in manufaturing, so capacity increase will take time.
I am still holding latitud, but i am betting on dividend increase. On the other, I am already starting to reduce my holding.
To be fair to KYY, he actually recommended latitud around rm 3.5 in december.

I already have a heavy position in VS , average price of around RM3. Let us see who is smarter, MR Koon or the anti-Koons. Personally I believe business for VS will just get better and better. Business for OEM are shifting from china to south east asia.

Paperlane, no. 400% I am referring to Prolexus. VS I don't know.
I am just trying to compare MPI to VS.
VS should command at least same market cap as MPI. Either MPI is overvalued or VS is undervalued.

MPI last 4Q revenue 1.0 Billion, highest profit per Q is 24 million. Market Cap 1.2 Billion.

VS last 4Q revenue 1.6 Billion, highest profit per Q is 35 million. Market Cap 0.8 Billion.

There are some feel good factor behind MPI.
Past 5 years MPI stock price gain 100%. Revenue growth almost zero.
Past 5 years Prolexus, suppose to be in a so call sunset industry, revenue growth 100%, Profit growth 400%. Stock Price ? Also 400%.
Feeling good will not make money. Growth and cash flow will.

I sold mine at 2.24. Those who think the result is good can have my piece of MBSB. Bye Bye.

Wow! Breaching RM4.00 with such ease.
At the moment probably can ignore the solar project. The investment is only 25 million, I doubt there will be any spectacular profit and even if the project fail, the drag will be small. VS can make RM 30 million per quarter, so market cap of RM 1 billion is reasonable. Just need to secure more oem, odm and continue with 30 million profit after tax.

Investment is not supposed to be too complicated, but the report here do not even try to calculate PE correctly. While the initial idea was nice, the effort was pathetic !

There is no Patriotism in business. Collapse of currency always happens because it is trading above its value and underlying economic fundamentals. If Tong sees an opportunity and capitalize on it, what is wrong with that ? The government has to screw up first before they get screwed by these bloodsuckers.

As for the people, sorry to say that we select an incompetent government so we need to bear with the consequences.

Unfortunately I think your investment result will be erratic if you invest in all these companies. You will need to dissect the information further.

冷眼 buy SSTEEL ? What is on his mind ?

Steve, nice work. If you pay attention to recent announcement from Prolexus, Prolexus could be on expansion mode again.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1792373
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1842557
If these are really signs of expansion, we can expect bountiful harvest three years from now!

I am switching some of my Latitud to VS. If you are interested with export stock, take a look at VS.

Few years back I remember TTB park some of ICAP cash as Swiss Franc. If he is still doing do, there may be close to 15% gain for this portion of cash.

Egg is almost the cheapest source of protein. I do not know of any substitute. Even if Malaysia goes into recession,I still expect the demand to remain. I forsee two risks. Material cost and over capacity. As a result, I own LTKM. Teoseng seems to have a more ambitious management. At the right price, I will add Teoseng.

The best among furniture stock is Latitud. As a result, I suspect you are refering to Latitud. However, you also mention new discovery. Latitud is nothing new. My second guess will be VS industry. Also export orientated.

My understand is that their earnings are fix at per liter rate. Meaning if their profit is at 5 cent per liter, then regardless of the price of petrol be it RM 2 per liter or RM 4 per liter they should have the same earning.

Yen is depreciating faster than RM. Japan is in a mess as bad as Malaysia, so opportunity for growth is probably low. China will be an interesting market. However, Hevea's revenue has been stagnant for a period of time so I believe they are probably not doing so well in China in terms of Growth.

Latitud is my biggest investment. However, Hevea looks very interesting as well.

1). Homeriz and Hevea have been showing profit before Latitud, Pohuat. That could be an indicator that these two have business model that is more durable in bad economic situation.
2). Hevea has been showing good discipline in reducing debt. Reduction in interest payment is another potential source of increase in earnings.
3). Strong Cash flow. Even though it was used to reduce debt, it is still a clear indicator that Hevea's earnings are in the form of cash. Once the debt repayment is completed, it will be wonderful is the cash flow used for debt payment can be distributed as dividend.
4). My speculation : Hevea over-invested in capex 6 years ago, causing near bankruptcy. As a result, they may have more capacity available.
5). Sustainability of business model. They are not exactly using the same raw material as other furniture manufacturer. Pricing pressure will be low in the longer term.

On the negative, Hevea supplies to Japan.

I don't think there is any question with TTB's ability to pick winning stocks. His failure for the past 3 years is due to the fact that he think he is smarter than the whole world and try to play market timing. So far he failed to deliver and keep on giving all sorts of excuse.

Going forward however, do not write him off. It is a matter of time before a bear comes. Once in a while roulette ball will fall into zero.

I am not a shareholder of Icap for the past 2 years but I will be in future. While I will vote for TTB to remain, I will also vote for Laxey to be in the board.

Uncle Kian Leong, thanks for your time and thanks for your additional info on Mr Tan. Your concept is too abstract for me. Maybe the billions that you are having is far too much for compaines like Prolexus, Latitud and Magni. I have much less. I guess I will just need to stick to my own way.

My current major holdings : magni , prolexus, latitude. All low valuation, low capex, moderate depreciation. These stocks are not in gestation. They have earnings to show. Magni and homeriz are strong in balance sheet. Prlexus and latitude not as good. Time will tell if they deliver the growth I expect. Can you please share you 1st class stock ?

Kian leong, for mkh and tsh, the long gestation period I am referring to is not now. It was from 2009 to 2012. If I recall correctly, 2009 to 2012 these two stocks are poor in earnings and cash flow because they are busy planting. Impatient investors would not be able to enjoy the biggest gain from these two stocks. I sold both last year because their valuation are too rich. I am just using them as examples.

Kian Leong,

Can you share a few first class stock ?

I am surprised by your comment that Prolexus, magnie, latitud, Hoeriz, CBIB, TSH are all third class stocks.

To Kian Leong

(1) You don't invest in a stock for 30 or 50 years. So you think in terms of 3 to 5 years. This is so that assuming after 3 years the price did not appreciate by 30% (10 % every year) you switch share on the 4th year. Every 5th year we have a general election, it is convenient to sell on the 6th year.

Certain stock has long gestation period. Example MKH and TSH. Selling too fast you will miss the best part. An investor need to have enough understanding of the company's plan.


(4) Since you want a 30% profit at least from 3 to 5 years. You find out what is the stock's 52 weeks highest price and deduct 30% from it. For a stock with a 52-weeks highest price of RM8/= per share, you can buy in at or below RM5.40/=.

This will not work for stock that are growing. For stocks like Prolexus, Magni, Latitud, Homeriz, CBIP, TSH, that have been scaling multiple new highs over the past years, you will be waiting in vain. By the time you are given a chance to give a shot, that may be the end of party. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Forget about the price. Focus on value for money.

To : jeff10000 - You can still buy now. Share price not yet moving

If you look at Mr Koon's wealth, you should realize that he is not a one trick pony. He may have some dry spells currently, rsawit is a bad call, Jtiasa is not such a good company and his investment in the China company is typical of a person who is over-confidence. However, do not doubt his ability to recover. He has done it again and again and he will do it again. With so much experience in business and investment, not that many people has such a good business acumen. Currently he may be making mistakes after mistakes because some of his fundamental assumptions may be flawed, and that will just happen to everyone. He has proven again and again in the past that given time, he will come back with a vengeance.
We should take his mistakes as a lesson.
Laughing at his mistakes will not do us any good. The fact that he decide to leave this forum, is a loss to everyone. I do not agree with his analysis with Rsawit, Jtiasa or Mudajaya. That does not mean that his sharing is useless. There are so much useful business information in his sharing.
I own a lot of latitud. Hopefully Mr Koon finally get it right this time round.

When I bought ICAP during IPO, I was expecting ICAP to hold good company until they become overvalued or better investment opportunities show up. I am OK with the fact that TTB got 2008 wrong and almost fully invested when the market drop. However in 2012 TTB start to speculate about bear market and held on to cash. I expect ICAP to help me to buy the right stock at the right price. However ICAP seems to be waiting for the "right time". To me there is no such thing as "right time".I sold all my ICAP during end of 2012 when the hostile shareholder failed to take control of the board. I am glad I did that.
Getting the right stock at the right price, you can forget about the " right time "

Stop wasting time reading the summary. Read the actual book. There are some translation mistakes and the summary is over simplified.

First of all, nice to have terence exposing bone's dirty trick. While what bone has done is unethical, those who follow him and got burnt have they themselves to blame. Old bone gone , new bone will emerge. Old victims quit, new prey turns up. Free lunch normally comes expensive.

不同意。我是第一加第五。
第一：不管起了多少倍，只要 PE 低加现金流强就不卖。
第五：只要手中股票维持买入时的素质，跌多少我都不卖。我永远不设 CUT　LOSS。　当然我不AVERAGE　DOWN，　避免遇到“黑天鹅”。

HEVEA :
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=H&securityCode=5095

SHH :
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=S&securityCode=7412

HOMERITZ
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=H&securityCode=5160

Look at their quarterly earnings and revenue. You would be able to guess how much revenue is required so as to have earnings rather than losses. I would assume 2011 and 2012 are bad times. Those that could make money during those 2 years would have a better cost structure to survive during tough period. Just different cost structure, not necessarily better margin.

I believe the best producer in terms of cost is HOMERITZ and then HEVEA, who are making money even when revenue is low. Investing in Homeritz and Hevea would offer good return as well as peace of mind.
REVENUE　growth the strongest seems to be LATITUD TREE.

It looks to me SHH is a producer that is not very effective in cost structure and need revenue of around RM 25 million per quarter to break even. If their volume is around RM 30 million per quarter SHH would post a significant EPS jump, which could propel the share price much more than Latitud(in terms of %).

However, SHH would not be able to survive in bad times. Probably same goes to Latitude Tree.

Funtrade, I believe Christine has the right to do so. Actually she is not the only one, you notice her post on GHL because she recycle it too frequent.
Her frequent post attract my attention on GHL. However, without any solid result, her post just damages investors' confidence on this counter.

As long as HEVEA nice profit and consistent cash flow, I am not going to sell. Who cares about short term share price ? Don't fold a strong hand.

Who cares what is the share price ? As long as HEVEA has strong profit and cash flow the only way to go is up. You never fold when you have a strong hand in poker !

Unlikely to reach RM 6.00 soon. First the management need to set a clear policy on dividend. Then they need to articulate clearly the future growth of this company and put growth plan in place. Only then we can have a richer valuation. RM 6.00 is only PE 10, which is possible. To get PE 10 however, the management need to manage perception better. 1st of all, commit to a dividend policy.

To tjhldog,
LiiHen EPS would easily be 30 to 40 sen, 15-20 sen dividen. As long as the cash flow in Lii Hen is real, Lii Hen will be able to continue to reward shareholder. Among your 5 arguments, the only real concern is (4) the frequency of fire. I do not have Lii Hen as I prefer Latitud and Hevea but I don't think Lii Hen is as bad as your description.

POH HUAT and HOMERITZ has different selling point.
The beauty in HEVEA is that the cash flow is more than profit and the discipline of the management to keep capex low. In addition my guess is that due to previous over-expansion, HEVEA would probably still have more than enough capacity.
HOMERITZ on the other hand is good due to the management's willingness to distribute dividen and stable earnings over the years.
As for Poh Huat, earning is inconsistent. I think at this moment Latitud is a better choice than Poh Huat.

Steven, join back before too late. You only have 2 more weeks to decide

Sure or not Bonus issue. Don't spread rumours !

I wonder when will be latitud's turn.

Candy girl is lucky. She cannot short HEVEA, otherwise now she will have a lot of licking to do !

K is KSL

To Wikileaks, Xx ? A bit tough to find a good stock that starts with X.
Cheers !

To Wikileaks, you are in Hevea and Latitud. Mind to share what else you are favoring ?

Slow and Steady with nice cash flow !

@askforwhy, USA GDP impact to HEVEA is minimal. LATITUD will benefits more from US.

Chris, first of all, I have to applaud your determination, imagination, ambition as well as your ability to connect the dots. However, I do have some advice for you.

Willingness to stick with the business during good and bad time is an essential characteristics of an entrepreneur. As a minority investor, this is not necessary and could sometimes backfire.

As an entrepreneur you have enough control over you own business so you can go Gung Ho if you have enough confidence with your capability. You are the captain of a ship and you control the destiny of the ship and yourself.

As an investor, you have little to no control over the business. You are a mere passenger on the ship. You have no control over the ship but you should still be responsible over your own destiny. You achieve that by staying conscious and alert. Any sign of the captain is doing something wrong or the ship is doing something stupid you would consider to leave for a better ship. Sometimes there is nothing wrong with the ship but if a better ship comes along you should consider changing as well.

Put it this way, whether or not GHL is going to be a great company, you still want to have a great life. There is a lot of means to achieve that, not only through GHL.

I am not saying GHL is not good. I just want to make it clear that we cannot let one company determine our destiny. Good Luck !