I reckon panic selling is coming to all O & G counters soon. Look at Alam @0.13, Senergy @1.61, icon@0.225, knm@0.235, perisai@0.045. All making new lows. Worst is UMWOG today selling at @0.295 below its Rights issue price of RM 0.30. Also making new low.

Better watch out when margin calls coming next week. There will be more selling and this will further drive their share price lower. Better stay clear and take cover.

Bobo & Humanfirst, Just curious I wonder why you people did not sell your shares when it touched RM 0.51 last month? Don't tell me the reason being people here calling for the target price of RM 1.00 ?

The problem is not with the fake news affecting OPEC or NOPEC. The most important question is
why Hibiscus's share price keep retreating amid rising oil price recently. That shows there is
no core-relation between Hibiscus share price and world oil price. So even if Brent oil were to
hit $60 also there will be minimal impact on Hibiscus's share price.

My point is there is are unknown reasons or problems that we do not know affecting Hibiscus share
price. That is why whenever Hibiscus share price rebound there are ready sellers coming out to dump their shares. So, i reckon those people know something about the company that we didn't.

So no point arguing and telling us when Brent is up so will Hibiscus share.

Stop dreaming lah you guys on price targets. Syiok sendiri saja. How can OPEC control price when Saudi Arabia the "taiko" also cheated on its supply cut?


" Having v-shaped recovered yesterday after disappointing Russian comments (on no news whatsoever), crude prices are tumbling once again this mornig, WTI back to $43 handle, after Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 10.07 million barrels a day in June, a person with knowledge of the data said, exceeding its production limit for the first time since brokering a deal to curb global crude supply to counter a glut.

As Bloomberg reports, the world’s biggest oil exporter boosted output from 9.88 million barrels a day in May, surpassing the limit of 10.058 million it accepted in an agreement between OPEC and other major suppliers including Russia. Under the deal reached in December, Saudi Arabia agreed to reduce production by 486,000 barrels a day, the most of any country participating in the cuts. "

Before they talk about re balancing the supply and demand of oil Saudi Arabia first have
to keep its own house in order first. Then only talk about stabilizing the oil price. As for now commitment to deeper cuts in the future remains a dream.

Private placements only benefits the subscription company. They will normally get 10% or more discount from the 5 days moving average of the closing price at a designated date. Private placement is known as equity finance. While the issuing company may be debt free but main disadvantage is the dilution of shares.

Earnings per share will be more difficult to maintain for the coming years as the outstanding shares will be bloated by an extra 10%. So no free lunch.

The following are the current main drivers on why the oil price is so cheap

1) Technnology rapidly changing the oil industry

a) https://macromon.wordpress.com/2017/07/08/why-crude-oil-trades-like-a-wet-dawg/

b) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-24/robots-are-taking-over-oil-rigs-as-roughnecks-become-expendable


2) Oil Affordability to consumer

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/03/13/raising-interest-rates-cant-end-well/comment-page-1/


Excerpts from the above article :


One hypothesis regarding the rapid impact of QE was that it encouraged borrowing in US dollars, in order to purchase bonds in other currencies with higher interest rates (“carry trade”). When QE ended, the carry trade was cut off, reducing investment in countries with higher interest rates. Instead, there was more interest in investing in the US. These changes led to the US dollar rising relative to many other currencies. Since oil is priced in US dollars, these shifting relativities made oil more expensive in non-US dollar currencies. Thus, the affordability of oil declined for buyers outside the US. It was this decline in affordability outside the US that brought down oil prices.

-----

Oil was becoming more affordable relative to wages between 1981 and 1998. Falling interest rates and rising debt seemed to play a role in this, as well as success in drilling for oil in places such as the North Sea, Mexico and Alaska. Since then, the only way that oil affordability could rise was by oil prices falling below the cost of extraction, starting in mid 2014.

We are now reaching limits because we no longer are truly seeing a reduction in energy costs. Instead, we are seeing very low interest rates and oil prices lower than the cost of production. These seem to be signs that we now are reaching limits. Energy prices really need to drop for the economy to grow; the economy will make them drop, whether or not producers can profitably extract oil at the low cost that is affordable by the citizens.

China seems to be cutting back on growth in debt now, at the same time the US is talking about increasing interest rates. Energy products, especially oil, are sold to a world market. If China cuts back on debt at the same time as the US raises interest rates, energy prices could drop dramatically.

-----------------------------------------

Manipulation has long existed in the oil market. When oil was manipulated to $147 in 2014, everyone kept quiet. The reason being 'peak oil'. The world is running out of oil. Now when the price is smashed down to below $50, everyone cried foul and blaming the hedge funds for manipulating the oil market.

Of course the hedge funds will again smashed the price of oil to below $30 if possible so that they can buy back to cover their shorts. Then suddenly they will turn around and become bullish and again will push the price of oil back to over $80. Like what happened last year.

A lot of people are too concentrated on individual shares. Thus they failed to gauge the overall market. They miss the forest for the trees. If our KLCI drop another 25 points can Hibiscus withstand another round of selling? Selling begets selling and thus the price will go further down on every round of fresh selling.

For your information, KLCI index is hovering around 1755 points which was the recent low. Breaking the 1750 level will see KLCI going down to 1730. Hope it doesn't break this level or else there will be another round of roasting. Good luck.

Gas investors, pay attention. More bad news coming will cause havoc in the oil prices.

https://uschnews.com/bofa-stunned-by-drop-in-gasoline-demand-where-is-driving-season/

Hibiscus might test RM 0.36 and RM 0.255 in the medium term meaning within a 1 - 3 months timeframe.
09/07/2017 13:27

You all should read the following articles on why shale oil will still survive even if oil drop below USD 30.


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Is-Immune-To-An-Oil-Price-Crash-In-2017.html


http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/2/28/rystad-examines-what-to-expect-from-us-shale-break-even-prices-in-2017

Hibiscus downtrend is just starting and still have a have a long way to go. By looking at the highly oversold position it might stage a rebound in these two days. In short, hibiscus will be trending DOWN.

Hibiscus has been on the uptrend since October 2016 (eight months) and thus it is not surprising to see it dropping for the next few months before the stock settles back to equilibrium. I would not touch it for the moment as it will be very volatile in the next few weeks and might reach the panic stage when everybody rushes for the exit.
.

If I am not wrong since the last support at RM 0.395 (05/05/2017) was broken, Hibiscus next downward target shall be :

1) RM 0.36 (23/12/2016)
2) RM 0.295 (08/12/2016)
3) RM 0.255 (18/11/2016)

The above price refers back to the previous support levels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/andurand-s-oil-hedge-fund-said-to-slide-17-percent-through-may

Good luck to all permabull oil investor here !!!

OILMAGEDDON !!!

as per Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/oil-s-slide-stalls-as-investors-weigh-stockpiles-against-libya

In addition, Pierre Andurand’s oil hedge fund (Andurand Capital) lost more than 20% percent since the beginning of this year. It is one of the world’s most prominent and largest energy funds suffered in the wake of last month’s OPEC meeting, according to a document outlining the fund’s performance. So expect more selling from oil hedge funds in the coming months.

Every investor thought an extension of the oil production cut will lead to a surge in oil price. Instead it went down by more than 5%.
No wonder most hedge funds throw in their towel !!!

But Goldman Sachs said another story.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Oil-Glut-To-Return-When-OPEC-Deal-Expires.html

So, who to believe. Everyday week there are tens of contrasting report on oil price development.

Heck, if this is not most difficult investment vehicle available in this world then i can;t tell you which is.

Wonder where are all the experts that predict a cocksure profit of at least RM 20 million. Using the 1 + 1 = 2 formula. Heck look at AAX same old story. All the experts predicted better load factor. Yes revenue went up to over RM 1 billion bu profit plunge 94% to RM 10.34 million. Expenses unexpectedly went up by 55%. So in the end all the experts went hiding.

Same here, all the experts trumpeting the cost of production is only $13 but now turned out $15 and only make a profit of RM 6 million. So can the experts here explain to us what and where went wrong?

By the way if the experts here feel that the stock market is a place to make easy money the they should read the following article.Hedge funds on average made only 5.6% last year, according to Forbes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/14/hedge-fund-managers/#32b8575a6e79

WTI flash crash to $43. See below.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-05/oil-teeters-near-45-as-shale-driven-rout-erases-opec-cut-gain

Heck, there is a guy here who said Hibiscus pump and store the oil and wait for better pricing before unloading to the market.Do you know how much space you need to store 4000 barrels of oil a day? Let's say if Hibiscus tend to pump and store, how are they going to pay for all their operating expenses? Using cash reserves?

How are they going to answer to the shareholders if revenue keep dropping? When revenue drops then profits will drop also right? If profit drop for the coming quarterly result then what is going to happen to the share price?

Heck, man you fellows are gamblers and not investors. When a gambler lose they will have one thousand and one reasons to defend their wrong decisions. Damn, these people have been calling people to collect Hibiscus shares on the cheap since RM 0.50. Why do you want to buy something if you know the price is going down next month? Why not wait for the sale next month?

The current rotational theme for speculation in KLSE is not oil. It will be IT or internet of things (IOT). If you fellows keep harping about O & G here you are missing out on other oppurtunity elsewhere. Look at Connect, NETX, XOX, DataPrep, Dnex and so on. Most of them are already multi bagger. Hoping is the most lethal enemy in stock market trading. Get rid of it if you want to make money consistently in the stock market. If not you will be wipe out by the stock market.

Oil price normally goes up in the morning because this is purely Asian play. Only Asian markets are open in the morning because the sun rises in the East and sets in the West. Thus basically in the morning the Chinese throw to the Japanese and the Japanese throw to the Singaporeans and the Singaporeans throw to the Koreans and the Koreans throw to the Malaysians and the Malaysians throw to the Indonesians. This goes on like clockwork everyday. So, without large liquidity injection from European and American funds how can the Asian market move?

The European markets starts trading at around 3.00pm local time while the American market starts around 9.00pm. When all these markets starts trading meaning all the fund managers start work then you can see volatility in the oil, other commodities and equities markets.

That's why all the happening is around midnight our time when the European markets closes. Thus what price being traded in the morning normally doesn't shown any indication on the trading sentiment for the whole day. Most of the time it provide the wrong signal and if you people follow the priced from morning till night you fellows will go crazy.

Sorry, i don't get it. " However look at Dagangnet which own 30% of Ping Petroleum which co-own 50% of Anasuria, its share price is going up means there should not be major problem regarding oil production there."

I reckon this is too shallow an analysis. Firstly Hibiscus is a one source revenue company. All of its revenue derived from Anasuria. Dnex is a multiple source income company. See below.

******
Dagang NeXchange Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company operates through three segments: Corporate, Information Communication Technology and Energy. Its Corporate segment is engaged in the provision of corporate services to the entities within the Company. Its Information Communication Technology segment is engaged in supply, delivery, installation, testing, commissioning and maintenance of information technology (IT) hardware, development, management and provision of business to government (B2G), e-commerce and computerized transaction facilitation services, which provides cyber security solutions, managed services, project fulfilment, assets maintenance and contact centers. Its Energy segment provides upstream oil and gas exploration, production and involvement in power plant, engineering and energy related business. The Company offers radio frequency identification (RFID) solution, cyber security services, IT consulting and data analytics.
******

Revenue from Anusuria only contribute part of the revenue. The other biggger part comes from their IT division especially from the recent eWork Permit project. See below.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/16/dnex-wins-job-to-provide-services-for-ework-permit-system/

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/dnex-reap-fruits-diversification


So the main reason why Dnex price is moving while Hibiscus is stagnant is not only due to Hibiscus's one source revenue but lack of a "story for retail investors to follow". Dnex has the eWork Permit project in hand and this kept people wondering how much impact it will have their bottom line.

Thus this story will ensure it will always keep investor fully invested in Dnex shares and hoping to gain more from capital appreciation. Although in reality its current share price is overvalued if you consider the NAPS at RM 0.22. When a share has a story no price is considered expensive. There is always hope and unrealistic projection of future earnings to justify the over-valued share price that is currently traded. Thus they are building castles in the air. As you know castles in the air cannot sustain for long as there is no solid foundation to back it up. Every share mania - ifcamsc, xox, iris and so on begins with a good story.

I reckon you people don't be too optimistic about Hibiscus's next QR. Nobody knows how much they dig and sell. Maybe it is 120,000 barrels (4000 b/d) or maybe less. It is just a guessing game as Hibiscus will never disclose their production record on a monthly basis if not their share price will be like a yo-yo. The current share price of Hibiscus already reflects production of 120,000 barrels of oil a month.

So we need to ask what if Hibiscus's production for January to March 2017 less than the anticipated 360,000 barrels? Hibiscsus share will zoom down like the Titanic. Unless we have some insider news if not it is just a guessing game. From the way the share price is acting i will have doubts that the next QR will be much better than the Dec 2016 quarter.

Secondly, share price is a discounting machine. That means the future share price of Hibiscus is core-related to the projected future earnings and dividend to be paid. So, i reckon we can leave out the dividend part and left with the future earnings. Thus we are back to square one, how much oil Hibiscus sold from Jan to March 2017?

So going forward i have already mentioned many times. Shale oil is not only a Canadian or American phenomena. There are many other competitiors. See below.

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

There are more than 46 countries have shale oil. The problem is that they are not doing anything about it. Just leaving it below the ground. The US shale sector space is going to have another competitor and it is Argentina. See below.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Exxon-Is-Going-Primetime-With-The-Worlds-Next-Shale-Hotspot.html

I hope you guys are not overly optimistic about Hibiscus's esrnings going forward. Thus it's share price and you will be disappointed if earnings is below expection. Take for example KNM they have a divesifies business apart from oil & gas. Their last quarter is expected to lose money. Many analyst expected it to be below RM 50 million but it turned out they lost more than RM 300 million.

Our Market has been going up since Dec 2016. Nothing spectacular in terms of earnings growth. Just an election play. No that they have made their money this round they have been unloading their stocks, They will again crash the marrket so as to collect at the cheap and begin their final push before the election.

Those who didn't sell this round then too bad. I reckon that's what going to happen. You folks will again see double digit drop (meaning > 10 points) drop in the KLSE. We haven't experience > 10 points drop for a long time.

Watch out !! The whole KLSE going to collapse in these coming few days.

Oil price fell as Saudi Minister says it is too early to discuss extension of production cuts. See below.

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/416630-saudis-now-say-too-early-to-discuss-cutback-extension-as-us-shale-predicted-to-increase-yet-again

Like i said before trading O & G stocks is hell of a difficult. Withholding global geopolitical, supply and demand, competition and so on, there are more than 20 variables affecting the price of oil. Even when all these variable are satisfied which eventually push the price of oil up, again there is no guarantee that the O & G stock you own will go up. It again depends not only on the fundamental of the company but also the performance of global, regional and our very own KLSE . If KLSE performs badly in relation to our peers in the region then our local stocks will not rise as a result. So, why invest in stocks that are easily affected by external factors. Why not choose another investment theme such as company turnaround, sustained earnings, merger & acquisition, company distress and so on?

This will surely let you sleep well at night instead of staying up all night to keep up with the latest oil price? As you folks can see rising oil prices will NOT lead to a rise in Hobiscus share price. I have enough of O & G invesment theme and the last time i dabbled in it was in 2015. One thing i can guarantte is that you guys will go bonkers if continue investing in O & G play.

Now this thread sounds like the old midnight Chinese talk show "Lei Tai Soh". In this show normally starts on 11pm till midnight. The host "Lei Tai Soh" talks and laugh by himself all night. More like "shiok sendiri" kind of thing.

The same goes here. Only one fellow keep on promoting Hibiscus while the rest of us as spectators and listeners. He sets the target for oil and Hibiscus and when the target hits he will "shiok sendiri" and congratulates himself. If he misses he will console himself and us so as to keep us staying with him on his show.

Frankly, i am here to watch "Lei Tai Soh" only for entertainment as i am bored because i own no shares at the moment.

Just imagine will USA be so silly to go to war against Russia, Iraq and China axis? If so then USA will be wipe out in no time.
American combat assets are nowhere near Russian weapons sophistication. See the article below on Russian using electronics jamming technology to disable American wardhip Donald Cook in the Baltic Sea. It was so bad that all 27 crew members requested fro termination of service.

http://www.voltairenet.org/article185860.html

By that time dont know whether oil will again zoom down below $50 if the geo-political situation stabilize?

Hibiscus next quarter result for 31st March 2017 is expected to be announced by 31st May and not 3-4 weeks from now. It will be about 7 weeks from now. Click on the latest quarter results and you can see the expected announcement date for the next quarter result.

Did you not read. "Half of global oil producion today goes to gasoline"

Guys, better read the following article to see how Electric Vehicle and Car Auonomy (self drive car) affetcs the oil industry in the future. It is already levelling the playing field and expect much more rapid changes in the coming years.

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences


Elon Musk, says Tesla cars able to run 620 miles (or 1000 kms) on a single charge. See below.

https://techcrunch.com/2015/09/29/elon-musk-says-tesla-cars-will-reach-620-miles-on-a-single-charge-within-a-year-or-two-have-fully-autonomous-cars-in-three-years/


Last year Tesla model 3 already getting 225 miles (362 km) per charge. See below.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/tesla-s-model-3-to-give-electric-car-maker-platform-to-expand

Tesla's gigafacory able to produce batteries at a much cheaper price and effective brought down the price of Tesla 3 to USD 35,000.


https://qz.com/879121/teslas-tsla-cheaper-more-powerful-2170-battery-cell-is-the-perfect-embodiment-of-its-factory-model/

Don't put too much hope on the future of oil. The days of Fossil oil are numbered.

JN88, good to know you also hold connect. Just hold it until May 31st when their next quarter result is out. I reckon by May connect shares will be trading above RM 0.30 and Connect-Pa should be around RM 0.20. This should give you a 10x or 1000% profit (including the free Connect-wb).

Moreover now ACE Group is their new substantial shareholder. Ace credit is a private Malaysian fund manager headed by Tan Sri Ting Chew Peh. Here is the link.

http://www.ace.ac/index.php/en/


Just hold on.You will be rich beyond your dreams.

Firstly, Connect only have 289 million shares while Hibiscus have 1443 million shares. This is because Hibiscus keep on issuing private placements. Which share is easir to move 289 million or 1443 million?

Secondly, connect won a contract to supply to the largest Cable TV in South America in US dollars.

CONNECTCOUNTY HOLDINGS BERHAD ("CONNECT" OR "THE COMPANY")
- AWARD OF CONTRACT TO RAPID CONN INC., A WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF THE COMPANY FROM DIRECTV LATIN AMERICA, LLC, FOR THE MANUFACTURING OF HDMI DEVICES

Delivery starts on January 2017 and it will contribte positively to the earnings in 2017.

Thirdly, connect has also approved vendor to supply Cisco and Apple Corporation.

Fourthly, Connect is also a leading manufacturer of USB 3.1 type C connector which has a transfer speed of 10 Gbps This is going to be the the future USB standard.

Fifthly, Najib has already eclared year 2017 is year of internet and digital economy. The next phase of growth is internet and digital economy of Things..Connect is tthe manufacture of IOT (Internet of things). Their main manufacturing hub is in Shenzhen China which just completed a plant expansion worth RM 20 million.

Sixthly, Connect shares move up slowly without anyone noticing. Hardly made up to the top 20. Unlike Hiiscus.

Basically these are the little things that differs Connect from Hibiscus. Pure facts and not hot air.

You can call me Uncle or Granpa SAM, What i know is i bought Connect-Pa on June last year @ RM 0.025 and come with a free warrant Connect-wb. Now Connect-Pa is trading at RM 0.17 - RM 0.175 and the Connect-wb is trading at RM 0.125 - RM 0.13. This gives me a nice profit of 650%. I am still holding.

Hibiscus share price is in down trend. FULL STOP !!!

Hello guys, please face reality. Oil price can no longer hold because OPEC cannot control pricing. As of now OPEC can only CONTROL INVENTORY. OPEC is a gone case. Full stop. Stop being emotional trying to talk up Hibiscus share price. Face reality.

Profits from oil extraction is not as easy as 1 + 1 = 2. There are a lot of obstacles and hurdles from pumping and delivery. Hurricane, power outage, schedule and unschedule maintenance and etc comes into play.

If you guys still think Hibiscus profits = world oil price - Hibiscus production cost then you fellows will be disappointed when the next quarter's result is out.

Thus what i can say is that future oil rebalancing should not be heading north or $ 100 but south somewhere around below $ 35. This is mainly due to the divergence of global economic growth growth, inflation and standard of living. When oil went up to about $147 in 2008 our RON95 is going for about RM 2.70 per liter. But now oil hovers around $ 50 but our petrol retails at RM 2.30 per liter. So how can we explain that? Retail petrol should be price around less that RM 1.50 per liter given the current global oil price.

Inflation is the main killer. Price of daily used goods and services has sky rocketed since 2008. Everything went up but wages are not rising enough to keep up with the inflation rate. Thus this has caused a tremendous drop in our standard of living. Instead of buying imported goods we now have to substitute it for local ones. Just think of products like chocolates, rice, cars, beef and etc.

So you guys just think out of the box, what happens if Brent shoots up to $ 80 per barrel? What would be the price our RON 95 retailing? RM 3.00 RM 3.50 or RM 4.00? How can our economy going to sustain that kind of prices? Who is going to go out and buy supper or a bread with their car? Who is going to drive from one end of the city to the other to shop? So, when demand for oil drops what will happen to the price?

So it is not as easy as you guys think when OPEC tried to push the oil price above $ 60. It can be done but only for short term. It cannot be sustainable and will soon drop back again.

I think you guys better not to be too optimistic hoping oil will go back to $60 anytime soon. One of the main reason is that OPEC has already lost control of the oil price. If not it wouldn't be extending the cut for another 6 months. It's true that increase oil rigs means more supply and it is giving one hell of a big headache to OPEC in balanceing the oil market.

But the truth is that that is only part of the story because you have to look behind the scene to understand why oil rigs can suddenly increased in record time. The following article by Reuters provides a very good explaination on why rig counts can increased dramatically in a very short time. The main culprit is actually the uncomplete oil wells.

Reuters interviews with more than a dozen well completion service providers, oil and gas lawyers and industry experts show that some operators are drilling because their leases require them to do so within a specified time limit to keep their leases. Not only that uncomplete wells are at record levels now. Thus even if OPEC agreed on another cut they will have big difficulty in balancing the oil market because all those uncomplete wells will be commision and pump more oil.

Read the article below.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shale-insight-idUSKBN16V0IL

Reasons why fossil fuels will continue to remain low for a long time.


1. OPEC lost control of oil prices.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/OPEC-lost-control-of-oil-prices-thanks-to-U-S-10128726.php

2. Drastic reduction in break even price of shale oil.

Since 2013, break even price for shale oil has been gradually reduced from $80 to $35 in 2017.
See below.

http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/2/28/rystad-examines-what-to-expect-from-us-shale-break-even-prices-in-2017


3. Shale oil is not confined only to the U.S but all over the world.


See below.

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/


Thus, betting in O & G stocks is not easy as many perceived because firstly oil price must be high and on the uptrend. Secondly, our local bourse KLSE must preferably be on the uptrend and not in crashing mode, Of course then comes the financial performance of individual O & G companies.Only after that the chances for O & G stocks to rise is better.

Here is the McClellan (McClellan Oscilator developer) Financial Publication on Chart in Focus..A giant wall of Short positions held by Smart Money "Commercial traders" will might lead to crashing down in oil prices. The Commercial or aka Big Boys always knows best. See the article below.


https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/

Good luck to all oil speculators here !!

Compliance to cut production is all bullshit. Saudi Arabia supposed to cut production by 68,000 bpd in February to 9.797 million bpd. Instead it ramped up production by 263,000 bpd in February and average production in February rise back to over 10 million bpd. See below.

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR%20March%202017.pdf


In addition, Kuwait's oil minister, Issam Almarzooq, who said at the same time as the OPEc report was released that oil risks dropping to $45/barrel as a result of rising shale production, as well as other factors.

As a result both WTI and Brend took another beating.

It is sad to see many of the investors here falling into the dangerous psychological "Stockholm syndrome". Having losing positions and yet does not want to face reality and cutting losses. Band together as a group to console each other about the losses. Instead of throwing back to the manipulators you fellows kept convincing each other there will be a better tommorow for Hibiscus. Hoping that the Petronas deal is coming, 1st quarter 2017 results will be better due to higher oil price for Jan - Mar 2017. Kept convincing each other Hibiscus should do better due to the recent run up of Dnex share price who happens to be a shareholder of Ping Petroluem. Just remember share price is determined by 80% psychology and 20% fundamentals.

You fellows can hope and hope until the cows come home but the reality is that Hibiscus is CURRENTLY in DOWNTREND. Full stop !! You can't fight the trend my friend, if you don;t sell someone else will and they won't wait for you. As said earlier when Hibiscus breaks RM 0.525 there will be BIG trouble ahead and the next target down should be RM 0.46. I reckon you people can see the RM 0.46 level very soon. Tomorrow will be a monster force selling day, T+ 4 as 250 million shares is due with the highest selling price of RM 0.555. If Hibiscus can survive tommorow it will have to absorb a further 3 more days of selling including today.

You think the manipulators will let those who bought at RM 0.50 and above off easily? If you are one of the manipulators then what would you do? I also did mentioned earlier that from the trading manifest (buy sell) the manipulator have already distributed most of their shares since last week. And they will soon throw the last of their holdings so as to push the share price below RM 0.50. Well they sucessfully did it today. What will happen next is that since they are already off the hook, they will let Hibiscus drop by its own weight. That means there will be absolutely no support from them.

Even if the Petronas deal is coming through (i am sure they know through iinsiders) they will let you fellows fight among each other to see who gets out from the EXIT first. When the dust settles down or most investor ended up in crutches then they will appear again. By then Hibiscus will be tradiing in the RM 0.30s and once again good news such as better than expected profits or the Petronas deal is once again coming through spreads like wild fire. All those who got burnt will average up or bring new funds to try their luck again. This is how they play the game each time like clockwork precision.

And all i can wish those who are going in again is "GOOD LUCK"

Hello fellow investors/punters, i would like to point out that what you see on the trading summary is just an overall buying/selling transactions of all market participants on Hibiscus. Nothing more than that. So if you think you know how much operators are buying then you got yourself misled. I opine that most if not all of you ever look at the actual Level 2 trading screens. What are you guys looking are basically Level 1 trading screens.

Level 1 display at most the 3-5 buy/sell queues and the audit trail of the transactions involving the summary of buy/sell at any particular price. Not much more than that.

Level 2 screens displays much more that Level 1 screens. You have to pay for Level 2 display screens. The top of the pack Level 2 trading softwares supplier are Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters Datastreams. You can go and look at their demo below.

http://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/tools-applications/trading-investment-tools/eikon-trading-software.html

Their software can display real time global stock, commodities, currencies , bonds and etc markets. They can filter both technical and fundamental data online across the global markets 24/7. They also can summarize which broking house bought what and at what price. Who are the biggest buyers and sellers (institutional) of a particular stock.

Even some indonesian brokers are providing some form of Level 2 access. Take a look at Mirae Assets Securities Indonesia which is owned by Daewoo Korea below.

http://dwsec-id.com/

1. From the screen you go to stoock quote
2. Keyin the ticker code BUMI on the stock quote coloum
3. Page down you should see the Real-time screen
4. Just look at the amount of info regarding the stock ticker BUMI. All in one screen
5. Take a look at their stock queue on the right. You can display up to 10 levels unlike Bursa
6. Cick on Transaction Summary and you will see the following
- Broker Summary or how much each broker buy/sell until now. As you can see broker YP
bought 691,007 lots and sold 859,106. Hence net seller. There are some broking software
you can zoom into broker YP transactions and see who are the biggest buyers/sellers

- Foreign Transactions or foreign fund buying for the past 3 months. You can change the
period for the display. In this case from Nov 2016 till today. You can change it to the past
one or two years.

See how powerful their foftwares even for a normal broking firm in Indonesia. So don't be misled when your conclusion is based on the lumpsum transactions. You will get into more trouble than it is worth.

Another thing to notice is that look at BUMI trading for the past 4 months or since 16/102016. It was trading at about 65 RP and shot up to 527 RP on 17/01/2017. In about 3 monthd it went up 850% with no UMA. In Indonesia stocks gaining 200% in one week will not receive any UMA unlike Malaysia. But Since 17/01/2017 BUMI's share price was down to 332 RP as of noon just now. Thus another drop of 40% in a month. This is the type of volatility you will experience when you trade Indonesian stocks.

Don't be silly to hold on forever. Syndicates love those who hold stocks forever. If not they themselves in trouble when investors kept throwing back to them. My advise is please be careful of Hibiscus !! From the way their trading manifest (buying and selling), it looks like the big players has almost done distributing their shares. Next what they will do is to create panic among those who hold on. They will dump the last of their holding soon. I reckon RM 0.50 will be the last barrier and anything below that they will create panic sales.

Be careful people !!

Educate newbies. Used to be like you people 10 years ago. Chasing hot stocks. Only end up feeding the minority winners (0.001%). In order to make money in the market you need to be at the 0.001% group and not the 99.999% that keep feeding the 0.001%.

Whenever the market and the share price drop i kept making excuses that things will be better tommorow. Excuse after excuse like big contract to be sign soon, record earnings coming, big merger and acquisition expected, new substantial share buying, EPF and local funds collecting and blah blah blah. Keep giving excuses for not cutting losses even though the writing is already on the wall. Keep averaging down because i am CONFIDENT it will go up again.

Look no further like XOX, Bornoil or Vivocom. Vivocom killed tens of thousands last year when it's shares was trading at the top ten volume for at least 6 months. If you look at Vivocom's share outstanding it is about 2.5 billion shares.If it doesn't trade in the top ten volume for 6 months then how can the big players distribute all their shares. They kept investors hoping and hoping by publishing one good news after another. Eventhough their earnings was at a record level plus news of it being the proxy of Chinese construction CRCC cannot kept the share price falling. So it managed to keep Vivo investor hoping and hoping until today. Many are still in their dreams hoping the China proxy thing became a reality. Take a look at their thread, many have already abandon and look at the share price and volume. All the big players have left leaving the small investors in the doldrums.

Another current hype is ifca. See when it will again leave investors to hold on to their baby when all the big players left. People just don't learn after they got screw the last time when the share price drop from RM 1.87 to RM 0.23. Nevermind the stock market need these people to feed the whole industry. From the stock broking firms to the banks to the remisiers to the government coffers to the syndicates. They all benefit from all the small investors churning,, trading, margin accounts to fatten their wallets. They thrive because of the 99.999% who keep feeding them cash. On behalf of them we like to thank all small investors for the continuous financial
contributions.

If you dont want to continue being those 99.999% contributing members then you need to change your investment style.

Hello, please refer to the chart again. Wonder if you know how to read the chart or not?

Dec 5th - $55.33
Dec 12th - $ 57.89
Dec 13th - $ 56.44
Dec 16th - $ 55.38
Dec 19th - $ 55.80
Dec 20th - $ 55.92
Dec 21st - $ 55.87
Dec 22nd - $ 55.23
Dec 23th - $ 55.25
Dec 27th - $ 57.00
Dec 28th - $ 56.56
Dec 29th - $ 57.33
Dec 30th - $ 57.20

Please check your figures from the chart before argue.

Share price is determined by traders psychology (80%) and fundamentals (20%) according to a research done by Dun & Bradstreet. So don't wate time tracking oil price day and night to determine what the price level of Hibiscus tommorow. You are just wasting your time and energy. How many times when oil price went up but Hibiscus's share went down and how many times oil price gone down but Hibiscus's share went up?

There is no true core0relation between small movement in oil price and O & G counters movement. Unless there is a big rise or drop in the oil price which trigger investor reaction (psychology) then only the O & G companies's stock price react accordingly.

Else forget it. You will go nuts guessing which direction the share price will go. O & G stock and futures investment is one of the most difficult endeavor to make money. In fact many hedge funds also throw in the towel last year. If you think you are smarter than those hedge funds then go ahead and continue trading P & G stocks. See below.

https://www.ft.com/content/e1346df2-9cd3-11e5-8ce1-f6219b685d74

http://fortune.com/2016/05/23/oil-glut-kyle-bass/

Brent Oil never touch $55 in 2016? Are you still in planet Earth or Mars?
See below.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BRENT

Please don't misled other investors. If you want to hold on forever then please go ahead. Not every investors are buy and hold type, some already cut loss and move on to other counters.

In market manipulation it is called BTFD or Buy The Fucking Dip. Whenever oil is below certain threshold some invisible hands uses ALGOs or algorithmic trading softwares to initiate buying in order to push up the prices. Hence it provides some form of artificial support to the underlying asset.

Below is the chart for Brent for the last 5 months.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BRENT


As you can see since last November 2016, whenever there appeared a long and big red candlestick buying support appears to push the price up. See for yourself. This are all algos driven and done automatically by the softwares. This shows how rigged the markets have become. It is none other than a giant casino out there.

Anyway how long this charade can go on is anybody's guess. If it stops then it will be a musical chair event. Those who got out last wil be burnt. It is the same in the stock market, a giant casino.

Cheers

For you folks who wants to improve your trading performance, i suggest you read the annual Dalbar "Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior" study which continues to show just how poorly investors perform relative to market benchmarks over time. More importantly, they discuss many of the reasons for that underperformance which are all directly attributable to your brain.

Here are 3 of the most insidious biases that will keep you from achieving your long-term investment goals.

1) Confirmation Bias

As individuals, we tend to seek out information that conforms to our current beliefs. If one believes that the stock market is going to rise, they tend to only seek out news and information that supports that position. This confirmation bias is a primary driver of the psychological investing cycle of individuals as shown below.

The issue of "confirmation bias" also creates a problem for the media. Since the media requires "paid advertisers" to create revenue, viewer or readership is paramount to obtaining those clients. As financial markets are rising, presenting non-confirming views of the financial markets lowers views and reads as investors seek sources to "confirm" their current beliefs. Individuals want "affirmation" that their current thought process is correct. As human beings, we hate being told that we are wrong, so we tend to seek out sources that tell us we are "right."


2) Gambler's Fallacy

The "Gambler's Fallacy" is one of the biggest issues faced by individuals when investing. As emotionally driven human beings, we tend to put a tremendous amount of weight on previous events believing that future outcomes will somehow be the same.

The bias is clearly addressed at the bottom of every piece of financial literature.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
However, despite that statement being plastered everywhere in the financial universe, individuals consistently dismiss the warning and focus on past returns expecting similar results in the future.

This is one of the key issues that affect investor's long-term returns. Performance chasing has a high propensity to fail continually causing investors to jump from one late cycle strategy to the next. This is shown in the periodic table of returns below. "Hot hands" only tend to last on average 2-3 years before going "cold." Go and Google Callan Periodic Returns.



3) Anchoring Effect

This is also known as a "relativity trap" which is the tendency for us to compare our current situation within our own limited experiences. For example, I would be willing to bet that you could tell me exactly what you paid for your first home and what you eventually sold it for. However, can you tell me what exactly what you paid for your first bar of soap, your first hamburger or your first pair of shoes? Probably not.

The reason is that the purchase of the home was a major "life" event. Therefore, we attach particular significance to that event and remember it vividly. If there was a gain between the purchase and sale price of the home, it was a positive event and, therefore, we assume that the next home purchase will have a similar result. We are mentally "anchored" to that event and base our future decisions around a very limited data.

When it comes to investing we do very much the same thing. If we buy a stock and it goes up, we remember that event. Therefore, we become anchored to that stock as opposed to one that lost value. Individuals tend to "shun" stocks that lost value even if they were simply bought and sold at the wrong times due to investor error. After all, it is not "our" fault that the investment lost money; it was just a bad stock. Right?

This "anchoring" effect also contributes to performance chasing over time. If you made money with ABC stock but lost money on DEF, then you "anchor" on ABC and keep buying it as it rises. When the stock begins its inevitable "reversion," investors remain "anchored" on past performance until the "pain of ownership" exceeds their emotional threshold. It is then that they panic "sell" and are now "anchored" to a negative experience and never buy shares of ABC again.

Anyone knows what is the SUCCESS rate of Stock MarketTRADING?

i bet only a few in this site actually knows the real success rate. Reports from brokerages and blogs like this one brag that daytrading is easy and success rate is more than 50% as some claimed. What i can tell you is that the actual success rate of trading is < 0.05% or should i say less than1 in 5000 will make money and able to make a decent living daytrading. What i am going to present to you below is an actual court case between SEC and TUCO trading in the U.S. Yup, actual P&L of a professional daytrading firm. You will be surprise by the statistics that are open to the public for scrutiny. See below:

Here is the link to the court case in the litigation of TUCO Trading

http://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2008/lr20500.htm

And here is the link to the actual documents on all the daytraders in TUCO Trading

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/heres-real-verifiable-proof-90-lose.162253/


To summarise the statistics.


206 traders

33 were profitable (16% of total)
7 had accounts > $50k (3% of total)

173 unprofitable (84% of total)
57 had losses over $10k - (28% of total)

So depending on how you view it, either 85% were unsuccessful, or only 3% were able to generate returns that could've sustained themselves (meaning 97% were unsuccessful). You could argue quite successfully that these traders were disadvantaged by a business model that pushed them to drain their accounts with commissions.

Proprietary or Prop firms are the best sources of daytrader success statistics. A prop firm is basically a broker that will loan you capital so that you can daytrade with an account and the commisions is lower than normal brokerages. Thus it can be said that TUCO is populated by full time professional daytraders.

So if those professional daytraders only achieved a 3% survival rate in a prop firm what do you think the survival rate of rookie daytraders like many investors here?

So for those hotshots here that have been bragging about how much they made daytrading i would say keep the statistics to yourself. Dont talk rubbish here. Even in a professional daytrading firm like TUCO more than 97% of their traders are UNSUCCESSFUL. I bet many of you haven't seen actual statistics like this one and will not be able to see one in Malaysia ever.

Share Market is a bottomless pit for most short, mid and long term investors. These 99.99% investors will keep feeding the 0.01% of the big players who have much better financial backing and market tools over them.

So, stop dreaming of making a living out of the share market unless you are the top 0.01%.
Happy Trading.