This is big. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/fire-breaks-out-on-pulau-busing-10060040

https://uk.reuters.com/article/singapore-energy-fire/update-1-fire-breaks-out-at-fuel-oil-storage-tank-in-singapore-idUKL3N1R24YB

Hope no one is injured.

Fam, to answer your earlier question about foreign fund.

I don't think Foreign fund is interested in taking over hy.
These funds are mostly passive fund. Because hy is part of the index, they will buy it if it fits the criteria.

What is passive fund?
Passive fund manage portfolio for institution and government. Each portflio will normally track an index such as ftse 100, msci global emerging market index. Some can be valina (pure index) and some can be index of indexes or fund of funds.

They buy basket of shares that comprises these index. The goal is to track the index. If index up, they should be up. If index down, they will down. They use tracking error. When tracking error exit the limit, they will rebalance the portfolio to buy or sell shares until their portfolio match the index within their tracking error.

They set some criteria such as risk, sectors, free float, analyst rating, fundamentals, alpha, country, transaction cost and etc. Then it will go through some very clever algorithm to optimize and finally give them buy or sell call. This algorithm are based on lots of back testing using many years of data.

Heng Yuan is part of the MSCI Malaysia Small Cap Index.

These funds will buy and sell heng yuan monthly as long as it is still in the index. They normally do it end of month or mid of month. You can check their record. They don't buy sell everyday as the transaction cost can be high.

What you can be sure is they are here for long term. When most of the free float shares are buying up by them you will see price become stabilise. You can see their record, some bought at very low price and some bought very high price. They don't care as long as it meet their criteria.

It is illogical when you first look at them. However, these funds can beat the active fund because they hold it for very long time. You can check djia, it crash many times but if you expand it over 30 years, it still up trending.

Hope this helps.

CharlesT, exactly, article with no risk info is irresponsible.
Same applies to the negative article. Unfortunately people are easily moved by media. You can see the effect of it after major news paper publish some news

Let's discuss why people come out with wrong estimation/project.

I only use simple analogy and view it at different angle.

We know king of fruit durian season only last few months. You cannot use peak season data to predict profit of next quarter because there will be no durian until the next season start.

It is also wrong to use the no durian season data to predict the seasonal income. Agree?
We need to use yearly result.

Let's look at some call king of stock Heng Yuan.

People look at 3rd quarter result and use it to project sky high TP for fourth. They don't know the high margin is due to the shutdown of refinery in west coast due to hurricane and also a lot of other effect.

It is also wrong to use merely one quarter result that when refinery churning out glut of oil after they restart the operation to predict the next quarter.

Too much durian produce, price drop. Too little durian near end of season, price up. No durian, close shop. Hurricane came, all durian, flowers drop in one country, the other country benefit. Same apply to refinery, right?

So heng yuan not only cyclical in macro economy cycle, it also cyclical in a year. If you are looking for stable income, you cannot sell durian.

Some one tell me what is y-o-y annualised result? What is the trend for last few years?

Anyone dare to come out with valuation will certainly be shoot down by others as oil is too volatile.

So whether it is a buy or sell call article, take it with a pinch of salt.

Forum really strange bunch. Calling sell cannot work, then turn to half hearted calling buy.

Calling buy doesn't work, then turn to sily sell call.
Physiological play, very interesting play.

Fund normally rebalance their portfolio 15th or end of month unless their tracking error is way off.
Now naysayers also running out of idea .
Dji, oil price, price down, diesel car ban, bullx, election, sma200, kyy..

Just like promotor come out with good news last 12 months until you feel jelat

April interesting period.
June watch out for hurricane season. Malaysia is normally immuned while other refinery are shutdown. This is why margin can be fluctuated. Forecast really difficult.

I don't easily affected by emotion. Those follow the oldman were influenced by fact but later by emotion.

I look at numbers. Most people just look at few numbers. Those whose push the price high by writing unrealistic projection and ask people to buy high even after rm17 are as sinister as those who wrote misleading comment and report and attack the shares to below what it worth.

If I see company share price drop is more than the real profit drop. I see value. I also compare with peers. I examine each quarter and study the difference. Such as administration charge which is normally 8-10 and this quarter rise to 26.

Anyway, need to enjoy my coffee.

Dragon, Jaw 6 human eat sharkfin soup, also very scary.

Traderman, not completely true. Revenue up profit down. It is affected by one off deferred tax and change of functional currency. This result in fx lost. Will we see the same in the future?

Dragon, Orca 2 show afterwards in.cinema 11 ;-)

Bullrun Naysayers missing means turned buyer loh. Moron can understand this. Naysayers dare not come out to promote. They will come back after selling. Have you not added them to the missing Moron list?

Vs share is like employee salary. Look at esos history. Boss will not let share down even super bad report. If he buy a lot, means he is preparing for the bonus split.

Can't see wood for the trees. ;-)

Bullrun what your strategy?
buy high sell low? Or buy low sell lower?
I bet you sell low and buy lower

Oh no, my ranking drop lol.

Bollrun very clever. He has fished out all your position :-)

George Carlin: Never argue with an idiot, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience

Are you referring to yourself? Banned three accounts still come out



Posted by Bollrun003 > Mar 19, 2018 07:22 PM | Report Abuse

Those who never own any HY shares but come here talk cock only are MORONS.

Waiting for durian to drop and pick it easier or planting and wait for it to ripe? (some not enough patience and climb up the tree to get it and eat sang fan xu).

Picking durian also need timing and some use net. Durian mostly drop at night when it is dark (fear)

Hang Yuan is 43 D24 :-)

I am not sifu. I play long term. One wife only :-) Treat me as uncle at kopi tiam. Time is a our weapon. Ask Fam, she must be sitting through lots of big crash. Big crash is big opportunity. You can sapu all blue chip.

I don't know price tomorrow. Let alone next week. We just know value especially when there is a crash.

TA cannot win consistently. You will win and win until that day, you are overconfident and lose your pants. You will find out there is always exception. Bumper!! They never tell you in the books.

Holding for long term .
I don't rely on here to make my living. I like Fam, just offer some help.

Any good price I will add few lot ;-). There may be also second dividend. Don't know how much.

The foreign fund behind this is much more powerful.

Ta expert, Beginning of triple bottom? Abc Abc abcdef. ...sky :-). Today one warrant expire. Next week one more

Double sugar. Double espresso hmmm.

Remember for each selling, there is a buyer behind these.Who are they? Low volume can ignore, they are retailer.
When you see huge volume in one go, guess who? Shark don't have that stomach. It is a WHALE. One mouth all ikan bilis, sardin, shark also cannot escape.

Retailer share is growing thinner and free float become lower.

Coffee machine get ready :-)

No one will know whether it is bottom or top until you look back. It is like saying the sky will tell you rain or sunny when you are going out tomorrow. Weather forecast may tell you rain. (TA). But it may be wrong too.

Whether it is sunny or rain, we don't know, we can always bring an umbrella - risk management. It shouldn't prevent you to go out the house if you have prepared for it.

I would refrained myself to predict the price of Oil for more than 3 months.

We have seen so many mistakes in the past. Who would thought oil price and drop from 115 to around 27 in less than 2 years. In a year time, it also more than double up from the bottom.

Oil price can be affected by natural disaster, war and economy. The good thing with refinery business is they are in between. Short term they may be affected but as price is stabilised, the FIFO should protect them.

As most of the people heard, no shares can go up forever. Same applies to opposite - no shares will go down forever. It has come a long way from 19.50 to 8.78.

Will there be more room to go down or up?

Market normally decide the fate of a company share price base on recent news and performance. Quick often they overact whether it is good or bad news. That’s where the phrase ‘sell on news’ come from.

If you want to buy any share that has just published good news, wait for few days – that can be explained by bull flag in TA.
It is also true on the opposite. When bad news is out, market overact. Don’t jump in immediately, wait for the news to be settled down.

I learn some valuable lesson from the ups and downs of some stocks that broke SMA200 such as MAGNI and VS. Magni reported that there will be impact of the underlying profit due to an increase of the national minimum wage in Vietnam.

Magni issue a profit warning of drop to adjust 7% to 11%. Market overact and share price drop from 7 plus to 4.5. A few times more than the expected profit drop. I know MAGNI is a very good company with lots of cash.

I waited patiently for the double bottom and noticed the management quietly buying. In 15-March, Magni came back with a brilliant result and no one expected that.

This is also happened to VS which broken SMA200 few days ago. I know VS is a good company and bought it. You can check my history in VS. May people overreact with bad news even it is sometimes fake and unrelated. Heng Yuan cannot be spared due to its popularity.

I recommend people to be careful to judge the underlying stock. Some stock (particularly those revenue is in red) that broke SMA200 indeed will go into COMA for very long period.

For HENG YUAN, I have confident it will come back strong by merely judging the amount of interest from the funds and the retailer.
When you see vulchers, guarantee there is some meat, get it?

I always like black horse or under dog that come out as a winner.

I remember I was a child. My result was always so-so and everyone surrounded me don't have any expectation of me and often ridicule me.
Base on my previous performance, if my result didn't go downhill it would be a plus. I failed my secondary exams.

My parents never gave up on me. I kept quiet and work hard. I can't change people's perception, but I decided to change my fate by working hard and believing myself. When I successfully graduated in Uni with flying colours and have been working in few of the most prestigious companies in the world, all the people surrounded me dropped their spectacles. This is inside my blood now!

I am sure you can relate to me if you have watched Lee Chung Hui’s final match epic 21–18, 18–21, 23–21 win over Lin Dan at the 2006 Malaysian Open final, in which he had a great come back from 13-20 down in the final set to clinch victory.

I am confident that we will see a victorious come back of HY.
Having said that, don't fall in love with one stock but also don’t let it go easily. If you want to sell, don’t sell your ticket cheaply.

When you have the victory after suffered a set back, the sweet taste is better than anything.

German ban diesel is really a great news for Heng Yuan that has a plan for providing cleaner fuel.

London has already implemented low emission zone that banned old diesel car and lorry a while ago. The result is more people are buying newer version of diesel car with low emission. Lately a hybrid of electric or LPG and petrol car. For those travelling outside of the city, diesel remains a dominate large percentage of the cars.

Unfortunately, the electrical car is still a long way to go due to low number of charging point. So people are turning to vehicle with better emission and use better fuel.

It will take few decade before diesel car is gone. So the focus can be turned to refinery to produce cleaner fuel. That is what HY is preparing for to comply with EURO 4M and later 5. As technologies improve, they may be chance of producing more cleaner fuel and potentially reverse the trend.

Other old refineries are dragging their feet to implement EURO 4M because the cost of upgrade is huge and require high expertise to make the change.

We can see smaller tea pot refinery will gradually shutdown as what is happening right now in China. (That is why HRC purchase Shell).

As more competitor goes out of business, we will see margin of HENG yuan increasing.

Great news indeed :-)

Btw, for retailer if you want more info about HY or any shares, you can visit investors.morningstar.com

For fund managers, factset is the golden source for many useful market data, company info, risk matrix and etc. Most propriety portfolio tools including reuters, Bloomberg and in house develop tools also receive live feed from them. Some times it comes daily or hourly in the form of file extract that can be imported by ETL tools.

In the recent report, it stated it is expected a reduction in sales. That was announced 27 Feb 2018.

"The Company continues to prepare for a planned major statutory turnaround scheduled to be carried out in the third quarter of FY2018. This major turnaround is planned to take approximately 2.5 months. Accordingly, revenues for the financial year ending 31 December 2018 will reflect the anticipated reduction in sales and production activities."

There is no need for any expectation for high revenue.
Anyone that invest seriously would have read the report and would have expected a drop in profit and a delay in the Euro4M Mo,Aas completion. Therefore, there is a signicant drop in HY price. A month should be enough for any price adjustment for this piece of news.

Looking forward, any reduction in project delay is a plus but we should expect the worst. Don't just listen to all the promoter for good news, we need to measure the risk.
The shutdown is expected in TA2018. The company decide to take a hit for the defer tax this year and also carry out all the work to prevent a shutdown in 2019 and 2020 to comply with DOE Clean Air by 2019 and Euro 5 gasoil spec.

They have sanctioned all the experience expertise from head quarter to complete this project. That's why the CEO is so busy this year and don't think anyone can approach him easily.

All the bad news is out. After the completion, the future is bright especially when the competitors have to shutdown during 2019 and 2020 while HY will continue produce compliant product ahead of them!

In chinese saying,
The bitter must come before the sweet 先苦后甜。

Are you patience enough to wait for the sweetness of success?

I like Kopi Gao (strong coffee). It is bitter but after that the aroma/flavour stay a lot longer

You may ask why they buy when it break sma200, all TA indicator show sell. That boils down to the same question I asked the top gun portfolio manager a while ago. He said he don't give TA a shit. He said young man, if you want to lose money and learn lesson, go and try trade fx using TA.

It is the fastest way to learn TA and realise it will fail you when you least expected.

He asked me to learn value investing and take cfa course. I really liked TA but I was shocked how he manage the fund without looking the chart but fundamentals.

I have great respect to TA sifu. May be TA plus FA is the best answer

Blackrock not only manage large amount of asset, they have the most comprehensive porftlio operating system namely Aladdin that are used by many banks and asset management company that cannot afford their own system. I have seen some proprietary portfolio optimisation tools but nothing compared to Aladdin that combines sophisticated risk analytics (with trading and operations) effective risk management, trading and it scale very well.
The tools can be used to back test for various strategies and provide the best alpha.

Just some kopi sharing. Have a nice weekend.

Last but not the least Northern trust serve 20% wealthiest family in US.
Hy has strong backbone!
As I have said before, asset managers buy for long term unlike day trader. They buy value stock!
Enough said.

Ssga statestreet is the third largest asset manager in the world!

The reason that there was a huge reversal spike on Thursday- Three funds joined the party.
Northern Trust Investments, Inc
SSgA Funds Management Inc
BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited

Blackrock is the world's largest asset manager. That speaks volume!
Happy investing!

Oil is volatile especially there may be sanction against Russia. What we know is crack spread has affected the business. May be 10%' .
The price of heng yuan has dropped more than 100%' even the business still making huge profit
I have to say the promoter are over doing it and create high expectations including a few TA sifu here. On the other hand the naysayers also create some fear and unrealistic low target.

Is current price already priced in for the drop in net profit (after one off tax) ? Are people overreacting. The bottom 8.24 has been tested twice, what we see is more investment fund are buying in. Do they see value that we don't.

What I know is that they are here for long term when they see value. Price may fluctuate because of the manipulation of hidden hands. At the end of the day, value investing will prevail over these manipulation over the long run.
Please ensure you don't sell or buy in panic.

Remember the last time hy paid dividend was 2013. The 2 cent dividend is small but it is a huge step and signify a turnaround of the business. However it was taken by anger from retailets.

Tesco stopped paying dividend for two years due to accounting scandal. They have sorted out their business and announced a restart of dividend payment in October. The shares has since risen for nearly 17%.
Why?
Fund managers expect higher dividend will be paid in the future and business has turend around and generate profit.

We can see heng yuan has generated significant earning per shares. Does it deserve higher valuation?

David has given us a discounted cash flow with some mistake and may not suitable for volatile shares. Even we further discount his calculation further 30%, is current price considered a steal?

Smell coffee already.. Next week two warrant expired. Need to be patience. Vs magni also good stock. Ignore the noise and ask yourself the reason you bought. Has anything change?

Smell something. Coffee keurig

I already said something was brewing. Not many listened

Engine start. Target will be revised

For those expert in TA, bullish engulfing with high volume?

David, nice work!

A song dedicated to all. Karma group, anjing kucing, bullying, nasayer , promoter and heng yuan forumer, chameleon..red gold green!!!

Theres the loving in your eyes
All the way
If I listen to your lies would you say
I'm a man without conviction
I'm a man who doesn't know
How to sell a contradiction
You come and go
You come and go

Karma Karma Karma Karma
Karma Chameleon
You come and go
You come and go
Loving would be easy
If your colors were like my dream
Red, gold and green
Red, gold and green


Didn't hear your wicked words
Every day
And you used to be so sweet
I heard you say
That my love was an addiction
When we cling
Our love is strong
When you go
You're gone forever
You string along
You string along

Karma Karma Karma Karma
Karma Chameleon
You come and go
You come and go
Loving would be easy
If your colors were like my dream
Red, gold and green
Red, gold and green

Every day is like survival
You're my lover
Not my rival
Every day is like survival
You're my lover
Not my rival

I'm a man without conviction
I'm a man who doesn't know
How to sell a contradiction
You come and go
You come and go

Karma Karma Karma Karma
Karma Chameleon
You come and go
You come and go
Loving would be easy
If your colors were like my dream
Red, gold and green
Red, gold and green

Karma Karma Karma Karma
Karma Chameleon
You come and go
You come and go
Loving would be easy
If your colors were like my dream
Red, gold and green
Red, gold and green...

I ask some top portfolio manager in two of the top asset management company in the world whether they look at TA, they said they mostly look at value. I am surprised to their response. They say the key is to manage the risk and ensure tracking error is not far off and do lots of back test.

Sometimes they may use multi factors to decide their portfolio but value is the most important part.

Active fund manager may stock pick but they charge more and mostly outgun by passive manager in the long run. They have a large amount of cash for their disposal as their fund is gather from institutions , government, pensions and etc. The dividend they received is also used to reinvest. That is why they love stock with dividend. They also hedge their currency.

Their optimisation technique include back testing using data that can up to 20-30 years to cater for different scenario including recessions , market crash and etc. They can have few universe that may comprise of different scenario.
Once they decided they will only rebalance (buy or sell) when the tracking error is over their limit.

What I learn from these managers is that they don't have emotion attached even there is a sharp fall or sudden rise. They may not as profitable as active managers but they win most of the time in the long run.

Do you want to buy some shares and stick to the screen everyday like day trader or is it better to invest for longer term? I let you decide. Just some kopi sharing

Wow, more passive fund are joining in. These funds buy and dumb dumb hold for many years. To get them sell is really hard.

Bullrun, learn from suntzhe. He is the more sophisticated and intelligent one with very good reason whether it is right or wrong. A total different class.
Those with limited vocabulary 'saupei' like a baby should learn the skill.


>> suntzhe Mar 7, 2018 11:09 PM | Report Abuse

Today is an excellent opportunity to buy on retrace for a strong uptrending stock like HY
Despite the steep short term correction, HY is still an uptrending stock
The negative concerns on HY 2018 earnings is hugely overblown
Very few stocks in Bursa can match HY in earning power and generating strong cashflows


Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

Mar 7, 2018 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

HY delivered RM 3.03 eps for 2017..very respectable performance for a BURSA stock

There is a planned shutdown in 2H 2018 but no certainty on timing to start as management had already stated that there might be a delay on starting date.

This has a dampener on HY 2018 earnings and the general perception seems to be that it will be a big minus on HY 2018 earnings...Will it be so?

The paltry first interim dividend of 2 cents/share had inflicted more damage to HY share price todate than its planned shutdown and it is in HY management interest to better take heed on this negative reaction towards the paltry 2 cents dividend when deciding on future dividend payouts.

A higher and consistent dividend payout will rerate HY PE upward


Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD

Mar 7, 2018 12:18 AM | Report Abuse

KYY sold 8 mil shares HY at higher price
Just ask..Who bought?
Retailers or fund managers? maybe mix of retailers + fund managers...likely fund managers bought more than retailers

Are fund managers so stupid to buy KYY shares at higher prices?
maybe its time to ponder more...what do the fund managers see that KYY do not see??

Who is selling and buying?
These funds don't come in for short term. Apart from one selling, I can only see more new joined.

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-concentrated.html?t=4324&region=mys

People switch from hy to nestle is like out of the frying pan to fire. Follow no one in this forum.
Have a moment of thought. Is recent quarter result justify the drop? Is hy a lost making company?
Have you look at the small detail why earning was dropped?
Is it a company in investing mode to prepare more profit generation?
Is the management good?
What are the risk?

Market will turn back to its true value whether it is down or up when all the goreng kaki are gone.
TA use chart and I can tell you with low free float stock, funds can generate any chart you like.

Still want to follow chart? Double bottom today?
I let you to decide.

Few lot in few counter :-) show few of your list. Kikiki. Anyway, didn't I say tambah coffee? Still don't get it? Just graduate? Can work with uncle koon. He can feed you well.

Feed you also don't know it is food.

By the way you curse people, we can see you are just one of the uncle in pasar. Lol.

Buillrun, good patience . I don't need to work hard like you all day long at one counter. Different class you see. I need look after few portfolio, only got little time to come to feed you.
Just don't repeat the samething lah, my finger an tired to scroll.

Genting Hang Yuan... Time to add some coffee.. Bullrun003 really stress out. Hope he is not another optimus in the making.