@Mabel Just a fair arguments;

Oil demand is heavily correlated with Coronavirus as it will impact growth in China and demand for commodities not only in the region but also globally. That’s why we are seeing oil and gas counter drop significantly today.

What really surprised me is that the drop of Armada is considered quite low considering the major loss on Woodside. This only accounts for 5% drop today (another 5% drop has impacted all oil counters due to Coronavirus). Maybe it can head lower in the next few days, I really dunno.

Just my two cents.


@Mabel Good sharing Guys..

That's why I keep asking this question since last week what has O&G got to do with Coronavirus.

Soon it will be forgotten and will be History sooner than we expected.

It's really an opportunity for those who sell earlier to ride this waves or to accumulate more at a bargain price
28/01/2020 2:01 PM

A global shipping revolution is weeks away — Here are the likely winners and losers
PUBLISHED WED, OCT 30 20193:30 AM EDT

KEY POINTS
On January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will impose new emissions standards designed to significantly curb pollution produced by the world’s ships.

For some of the world’s biggest oil producers, the new rules coming into force represent a source of great concern.

Maritime transport is critical to the global economy, with more than 90% of the world’s trade carried by sea, according to the United Nations (UN).

Any other tech company expose to China? Kesm, MPI, inari, penta, globe... Sell All. Hahaha.

Any other tech company expose to China? Kesm, MPI, inari, penta, globe... Sell All. Hahaha.

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/meg-and-polyethylene-spot-prices-jump-after-drone-attacks-on-saudi-oil-facilities/

Spot prices of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and polyethylene (PE) have spiked in Asia, following news of the drone attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia over the weekend. These two commodities are the two main chemical exports of the region.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1978522-asia-petchem-prices-strengthen-on-saudi-feedstock-curbs?backToResults=true

Asian petrochemical prices have risen across the board on the prospect of supply disruptions following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

Feedstock supplies at state-owned Sabic and other Saudi petrochemical companies have been cut by 15-50pc after the attacks on the Abqaiq plant, the world's largest crude oil processing facility, and the Khurais oil field infrastructure. It is still unclear for how long, and by how much, production will be disrupted.

The following companies have announced feedstock supply cuts:

Sabic: 49pc
Sadara: 16pc
Tasnee: 41pc
Advanced Petrochemical: 40pc
Yansab: 30pc
Saudi Kayan: 50pc
The oil facilities that were struck in the 14 September attacks mainly produce export supplies of Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crude, forcing state-owned Saudi Aramco to shut in 5.7mn b/d of crude output. The attacks also halted production of an estimated 2bn ft³/d (21bn m³/yr) of associated gas, which will cut Saudi supplies of ethane and NGLs by 50pc.

LPG is used at petrochemical units to produce polymers such as polyethylene (PE) and ethylene glycols (MEG). Asian naphtha- and gas-based crackers often favour supplies of Middle East LPG such as propane because they are subject to lower taxes compared to rival US supplies, which have been hit by a 25pc tariffs under the China-US trade war.

But Chinese producer SP Chemical is now preparing to purchase feedstock propane from the US, despite the tariffs, as its term supplies from the Middle East are affected by the attacks. The producer started a new 700,000 t/yr LPG-fed cracker in Taixing in mid-August, and had stabilised production by the end of the month. The cracker is now operating at 80pc.

Direct buyers from Satorp, PetroRabigh and South Korea's S-Oil — which is majority owned by Aramco — have not received any notification of disruptions to their aromatics supplies. The impact on aromatics production appears to minimal so far, but this could change.

Satorp's aromatics capacity includes 140,000 t/yr of benzene and 800,000 t/yr of paraxylene (PX). PetroRabigh has 400,000 t/yr of benzene and 1.3mn t/yr of PX capacity, while S-Oil has total benzene capacity of 600,000 t/yr as well as 1.7mn t/yr of PX.

The new, world-scale aromatics production units in China being brought on line by Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemicals are designed to run Arab Medium crude as baseload supplies, and can also process Arab Heavy. But these units could also be affected by the Saudi supply disruptions, as Aramco rejigs the grades it offers to Asian buyers to manage the impact from the attacks.

Chinese buyers favour styrene monomer (SM) supplies from the Middle East because these do not incur anti-dumping duties (ADD). China has increased its reliance on Middle East SM this year as a result, leaving buyers vulnerable to the fall in the region's SM supplies.

Prices of most aromatics in Asia rose by about $40/t or up to 6pc yesterday, the first trading day after the attacks. Benzene prices for November delivery on a fob South Korea basis settled at $730-740/t yesterday, up from $696-698/t on 13 September. PX prices rose to the highest level for a month, with November cfr China supplies trading as high as $825/t yesterday after being bid at $781/t on 13 September. October-delivery SM was bid at $1,075/t cfr China yesterday, without any counter-offer, compared to $1,030-1,040/t on 12 September, before the Chinese market closed for the mid-autumn festival holidays.

There have been no obvious price increases yet for ethylene and propylene, with market participants still seeking details on the market impact. But ethylene traders have held back offers in anticipation of a sharp jump in prices, which is expected by the end of this week, as they monitor the onset of production cuts and the impact on the downstream PE and MEG sectors.

But prices of PE and fellow derivative polypropylene (PP) in China have already strengthened in response to the supply concerns. Spot prices of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) increased to 7,400-7,800 yuan/t yesterday from Yn7,250-7,500/t on 12 September, while LLDPE futures rise by Yn303/t to Yn7,630/t over the same period. Raffia PP spot prices increased from Yn8,650-8,750/t on 12 September to Yn8,800-8,900/t yesterday, while PP futures gained by nearly Yn300/t to Yn8,310/t.

But MEG futures in China hit a five-month high yesterday, after consumers in northeast Asia said they had received notification from a Saudi supplier that October MEG deliveries will be delayed.

https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/19092019/petrochemical-feedstock-supply-under-attack/amp/

A rise in oil prices in turn raises the competitiveness and margins of US petrochemical producers which mainly use NGLs ethane, along with propane and butane.

As oil prices rise, this drives petrochemical and polymers prices higher. US petrochemical margins, largely based on abundant local ethane from shale gas, would widen.

On 16 September, US commodity chemical stock prices surged, with notable gains in LyondellBasell (+4.0%), Westlake Chemical (+5.0%) and Methanex (+8.9%). Dow was up 1.6%.

https://cen.acs.org/business/economy/Petrochemical-prices-spike-Saudi-bombings/97/i37

The bombings of Saudi Aramco’s oil-refining complexes in Khurais and Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday, Sept. 15, caused a spike in prices for oil and some petrochemicals due to concerns about a tightening global supply.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/saudi-arabia-drone-and-missile-debris-proves-iranian-role-in-attack.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/saudi-arabia-drone-and-missile-debris-proves-iranian-role-in-attack.html

Fireworks!!! TP1.50

See u at 15 cents. Market bad it’s time for operator to run first. Dodgy this stock. Run, run, run baby

Titus, I think you should know better that their feedcosts is considered fixed already LT agreement petronas. Again, ASP has start to rebound.

Maybe q3 higher as asp improving

Or maybe better coz selling prices start to rebound

Inventory build will support sales volume in q3. That’s mean the revenue will still be higher and 3q will not be that bad.

That was based on Ncm88 crystal ball. Maybe he drink less milk

Ask Ncm88, with his crystal ball maybe rm1.00. Hahaha

Ncm88, i don’t have crystal ball chart like u. Talk cock

Now you say can start Buy. Hahaha. Buy milk la brother

I bought personally at 7.7 and 7.6. Still okay ma. Now still left final bullet. Btw, I’m younger than you but more matured. Hahaha

Lol, ncm young fella... still need to drink milk ma. If you compared yoy, next year Pchem will have rapid ma. Confirmed fly high. Now people also look at short term. If qoq higher meaning selling prices is improving. U can refer to midf recent report. There are charts showing price starts to rebound.

Sorry. It’s actually up 38% qoq. Wtf citi and dbs. Go back taken care of ur own countries lor.

Btw, I hope I didn’t miss my last bullet today before price ran up.

That’s why I said, why so bearish. Profit up 20% qoq. Those idiots like rainy and icon888 talk ‘fact’ crap goreng Investors. U guys better tanam jagung lor.

How come Lotte price up a lot today? Epf succeeded in playing us over and over again. Now, they will start to offload / sell Lotte and buy back Pchem at very lower price.

Wah just saw MIDF TP RM8.77

Believe it or not. Selling Price Improving? Justification:-

That said, we observed that the spread for some of the chemicals such as: polypropylene, benzene, and urea have gradually recovered and stabilised from the recent bottom seen back in Mar-May 2019. (Refer to Figure 2-4). Hence, we opine that the gradual recovery in ASP for the chemical products as well as; the expected continued soft movement of Ringgit for the rest of the year will cushion PChem’s earnings. According to our in-house projection, Ringgit is expected to average at RM4.15 per USD in FY19 whilst our year-end Ringgit target currently stands at RM4.15 per USD.
Furthermore, demand for chemical products is expected to be cushioned by numerous TA activities that will take place across the globe. According to Bloomberg, it is estimated that about 26 oil refineries are scheduled for shutdown throughout the year for expansion and/or maintenance works. This, we reckon will balance out the new supply coming into the market from earlier this year.
Pockets of opportunity remain despite the ongoing US-China trade war. While we note that the ongoing trade war between US-China in general will have a negative impact globally especially on demand in the longer term should the trade war prolongs, however; we opine that pockets of opportunity remain in the midst of the trade war for regional chemical producers such as PChem. In terms of demand, we have observed that chemicals export from Malaysia to the rest of the world in monetary value remains relatively strong and similar to that of 2017 and 2018 – in some months, exports were also higher than that of 2017 which was pre-trade war. This is despite the softer year- over-year growth in the chemicals export compared to 2018 which signals that the demand for chemicals remains largely intact despite the geopolitical tensions. To date, chemicals remain the third largest Malaysian export at 6% of total exports. Refer to figure 5.
Furthermore, we opine that the recently imposed 10% tariff on Chinese goods could potentially lead to the following impact on petrochemical products: (i) increased in product pricing for a broad range of chemical products and; (ii) provides opportunities for PChem to produce new chemical products for the Chinese market due to PChem’s wide range of petrochemical products. Refer to Figure 6 for the list of some of the chemical products that are expected to be slapped with the additional tariff.

If trump set tariff on China,

Demand for oil and gas will be affected, sell velesto, sapura, deleum.

Demand for rubber will be affected, sell harta topglove kossan

Demand for tech and exporters will be affected.

Everything. So sell everything. Haha

If it’s about trump tariff, then we should be worried more on other stocks like tech & manufacturing exporters like inari, d&o, vs industry. These stocks shd be more vulnerable.

Kayme. Waste of time to focus on Pchem risk.

Market not so good, see u at rm3.60 tmrw baby

See u at rm20 tmrw. I like this baby.

In the meantime, u can drink lctitan bosses’ pee first. Haha

I will save big bullet later la until it’s bottom.

As long as I am not that stupid to compare lctitan and pchem. Lctitan good at kencing to investors like u ma. Kencing on ur face.

No comment but just wondering, there is still stupid people comparing lctitan and Pchem. Haha. Btw, I’m still waiting for my final big bullet for Pchem.

Tmrw rm5.00 GLc next target to sell is RHB

My new TP Rm20 See u baby.

Yeah. Go down to rm23. I’m waiting...

Today rm25. U need at least 3 days down before up.

Tmrw will still drop to rm25. 3q is expected to still be weak. See u at bottom next week.

Yeah, we as trader / long term investors will only buy below rm20 if possible.

1 day up, 7 days down. See u next week baby

Long term investors will only buy below RM25. See u at this price baby

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hibiscus-secures-option-participate-exploration-permit-australia

Time to fly baby

Today sure close at rm25.

1 day up, next week 7 days down. Investors start to take profit ma.

Rm25 here we go. No brainer

Baby going down. See u at rm25

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/asian-stocks-set-fall-draghi-whipsaws-euro

Confirm limit down. Market set to fall today.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/asian-stocks-set-fall-draghi-whipsaws-euro

Confirm limit down. Market now set to fall